Sox hitting??

[Bellhorn04]

Our offense is a numerical nightmare at this point.

[jad]

Actually, we do know what a significant sample size is and the number is hardly random. The sample size does depend on the stat you're trying to measure, however.

 

Talking about 'trends' is leading us back into the 'hot hand' debate...

 

The definition of 'significant' is close to arbitrary in statements like this (although we could perhaps agree that it's greater than 1 and less than 161). Which makes it a perfect topic of conversation on sports boards.

[Bellhorn04]

We are averaging 3.82 runs a game and slugging .378. Wow those are ugly numbers, especially for a team that plays in a hitters' park.

[Station 13]

I'd fine a way to get Booger back in the top of that lineup. Perhaps in the 2-hole. It might get his offense going.

[Kimmi]

The definition of 'significant' is close to arbitrary in statements like this (although we could perhaps agree that it's greater than 1 and less than 161). Which makes it a perfect topic of conversation on sports boards.

 

That's fair that the definition of 'significant' might be arbitrary to posters here. In terms of when stats begin to stabilize, the sample sizes are not arbitrary, which is what I was referring to.

[Kimmi]

One player that I will never count out is Pedroia.

 

Papi was another one, but alas, he's retired.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes

 

Hey, is it too early to pat myself on the back for this prediction on May 1 that Leon would get hot?

[jad]

That's fair that the definition of 'significant' might be arbitrary to posters here. In terms of when stats begin to stabilize, the sample sizes are not arbitrary, which is what I was referring to.

 

 

Ha. 'Arbitrary' is obviously not the right word. I should have said 'ill defined or impossible to define'; 'when stats begin to stabilize' strikes me as just as problematic. I get what you mean, but there's no defining that precisely.

[Maxbialystock]

I'd fine a way to get Booger back in the top of that lineup. Perhaps in the 2-hole. It might get his offense going.

 

Hah! Pretty good call--Bogie is hitting 3d and hitting up a storm. Well done.

[Bellhorn04]

An OPS+ of 97 at this point says we are not a good offense and should not be referred to as a good offense. We are a mediocre offense at best.

[a700hitter]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/xander-bogaerts-is-a-very-weird-good-player/

 

Here's an interesting read from the Tribune about Bogey's power outage.

 

SEE, I DON'T JUST PICK ON PEDROIA!

When the weather warms up, he will start hitting HRs. I think he will get at least 15.

[devildavid]

Even though batting order doesn't really change scoring that much, I would like to see Bogaerts leading off. He gets on base and has good speed.

[oldtimer]

Even though batting order doesn't really change scoring that much, I would like to see Bogaerts leading off. He gets on base and has good speed.

 

When things seem to be going better, it is smart to stay with the status quo.

[devildavid]

When things seem to be going better, it is smart to stay with the status quo.

 

Not really. But batting order is not critical as long as your top hitters are bunched up at the top of the batting order. My thinking is that leading off with Bogaerts increases the chances of having him on base for the hitters with more power to start each game. And he will also get more plate appearances so it would maximize getting men on base in general.

[moonslav59]

Even though batting order doesn't really change scoring that much, I would like to see Bogaerts leading off. He gets on base and has good speed.

 

1st or second makes the most sense, at least until that projected power materializes.

[Bellhorn04]

Bogaerts hit 21 homers last year, and his 2017 SLG is now up to .470. Don't be surprised if he ends up with 21 homers again this year.

[Kimmi]

The Sox are currently 3rd in the league in OPS despite being last in home runs. Home runs are overrated. I'm not saying that they're not nice, just that they're overrated.

 

That said, I think this team will start hitting more home runs, based on their numbers from last season. The power is there.

[cp176]

I still think that they really miss that real power bat in the middle of that lineup.

[S5Dewey]

I still think that they really miss that real power bat in the middle of that lineup.

 

I don't think there's any doubt they miss Papi's bat I don't think there's any doubt that they knew they would. However, you don't just replace him with another one like him because there is no other one like him, at least not one who was available. And I'm very glad they didn't throw a lot of money at Encarnarcion.

 

IMO this team is ok. There's more than one way to skin a cat. It doesn't have to be done with offense. Marrero has solved the defensive half of the problems at 3B and we've got Chris Freakin' Sale! and Sale alone can make up a portion of the loss of Papi.

 

They're not as much fun to watch if you like watching players hit home runs - and who doesn't??. They probably won't outscore everyone else in the AL by 100 runs this year but their pitching and defense can carry this team a long way.

[cp176]

I really am a defense first guy believe it or not. I think that part of the plan for this season was to have a healthy bounce back year from sandoval. Maybe it will still happen but that remains to be seen. I really think that they failed to address the need for run producers. If it was just a case of replacing one bat, it would be an easy fix. It isn't. I understand that it is not about just hitting home runs for sure but it is a lot more than feilding a time primarily comprised of light although good hitters. It just takes more to produce runs. I understand entirely what all of these guys have done in prior years. It was also done with a big time power bat in the middle of their lineup which ultimately affected how all of the guys around him were pitched to. I hope for sure that I am wrong and that everything works out.

[moonslav59]

I really am a defense first guy believe it or not. I think that part of the plan for this season was to have a healthy bounce back year from sandoval. Maybe it will still happen but that remains to be seen. I really think that they failed to address the need for run producers. If it was just a case of replacing one bat, it would be an easy fix. It isn't. I understand that it is not about just hitting home runs for sure but it is a lot more than feilding a time primarily comprised of light although good hitters. It just takes more to produce runs. I understand entirely what all of these guys have done in prior years. It was also done with a big time power bat in the middle of their lineup which ultimately affected how all of the guys around him were pitched to. I hope for sure that I am wrong and that everything works out.

 

Your point is a strong one. Every ring we've won was with at least one big time bat in the middle of the order. HanRam doesn't seem to measure up to the level of Papi or Manny.

 

I could end up being wrong with my belief that a full year of Beni, an improved 3B mix and a Moreland-Young platoon would be enough to make up for a sizeable chunk of the loss of Papi. I never expected Papi to be fully replaced, but our offense was so damn good with Papi, that I thought we'd still be "good enough" with what we have now and a much improved rotation and slightly improved defense.

 

So far, our offense has not done nearly as well as I expected, but the season is still young.

 

I hope you are wrong, but you make a strong argument. Papi's influence on the rest of the line-up is hard to quantify. Many felt he'd decline or suffer after Manny's departure, but that never happened.

 

I'd like to think we can win in other ways that with a super bat in the heart of our line-up.

 

[Maxbialystock]

I thought I'd revisit this thread because I started it way back in April and so feel a little pride of prophecy.

 

We are now exactly 1/3 into the season--54 games--a significant statistical sampling--and 4 games above .500, which is nice, but actually below where we were last year at this point. Worse, the Sox are lagging despite having a much improved rotation. We came into this 4 game series at Baltimore with a stud rotation of Sale, Porcello (last year's cy young), ERod, Price (@$30M/year), and Pomeranz, whose ERA of 4.24 actually matches Porcello's. We also have one of the best closers in MLB in Kimbrel and some pretty good other relievers to back him up. In short, the pitching this year so far is much better than last year.

 

But right now the Sox seem fully capable of being swept by the Orioles who just a week ago were in a tailspin with a 7 game losing streak.

 

I would argue once again that it's the hitting and more specifically the absence of Ortiz which just might be killing this team which should be contending. Ortiz just might have been the best hitter (highest OPS) in MLB last year. More to the point, he also apparently made everyone else in that lineup better. I say this because most of those same hitters--HanRam, Pedroia, Betts, Leon, JBJ--are hitting worse this year than last. On top of which Beni is in a slump and Farrell is forced to use Marrero--OPS .536--at 3B simply because the errors by three others were killing us.

[oldtimer]

Last night we faced a pitcher who was clobbered last time out by Houston, while we didn't hit him well at all. Well, Moreland goes for high fastballs and doesn't get them. He saw those last night. Leon doesn't do well on outside fastballs and he got those. Marrero is a light hitter, Rutledge is a light hitter at best, Rameriz is off, perhaps due to a sore shoulder and Beni is slumping badly, taking good pitches and missing too often for him. That puts great pressure on Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley. Sandoval hit a homerun, but he is a free swinger and is not likely to get on base that often.

 

With Pedey out temporarily, we need to put guys in that are hot. Travis sat last night when one big hit might have helped. Young never got in either. I know there is no magic elixer but please use the tools we do have to give us more of a chance. There is a real quandry now with both 2nd and 3rd in the hands of light hitters. We can't get relief from d'Arnaud (why did we pick him up in the first place?). I'm for making a move, whether it is Devers up and Rutledge down, or a pickup from outside.

 

Maybe it's all the unfortunate high salaries the Sox are carrying, but the FO seems unable to make moves to improve the team.

[cp176]

Last night we faced a pitcher who was clobbered last time out by Houston, while we didn't hit him well at all. Well, Moreland goes for high fastballs and doesn't get them. He saw those last night. Leon doesn't do well on outside fastballs and he got those. Marrero is a light hitter, Rutledge is a light hitter at best, Rameriz is off, perhaps due to a sore shoulder and Beni is slumping badly, taking good pitches and missing too often for him. That puts great pressure on Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley. Sandoval hit a homerun, but he is a free swinger and is not likely to get on base that often.

 

With Pedey out temporarily, we need to put guys in that are hot. Travis sat last night when one big hit might have helped. Young never got in either. I know there is no magic elixer but please use the tools we do have to give us more of a chance. There is a real quandry now with both 2nd and 3rd in the hands of light hitters. We can't get relief from d'Arnaud (why did we pick him up in the first place?). I'm for making a move, whether it is Devers up and Rutledge down, or a pickup from outside.

 

Maybe it's all the unfortunate high salaries the Sox are carrying, but the FO seems unable to make moves to improve the team.

 

pretty accurate assessment of things I'd say

[oldtimer]

pretty accurate assessment of things I'd say

 

We got a fine pitchiing performance from Price and this time we didn't waste it. Rutledge sat and Marrero played second with Pablo at third. Beni got a hit but is really still not back to the level of confidence he came in with. Young might help us with an appearance. Moreland is swinging at high strikes and they elevate on him and he still swings out of the strike zone. I hope he is getting coaching as they must see what is going on. Hard to put a guy in the middle of the lineup who is slumping. Maybe a day off with Sam Travis in would be worth a try. The other good news is Hanley hit tonight. We know he can be streaky. I still think he has been nursing a sore shoulder that they don't like to talk about.

 

The Orioles have some pop in their lineup but their BAs aren't that good. We are tied in league standing with them and have a good enough team to play better in the next month. Now for finding that big bat somewhere. Devers or outside.

[Kimmi]

Our offense has been the cause of a lot of frustration, and through most of the frustration, Mookie has gotten a free pass. For the past couple of weeks, there have been times when he has looked pretty bad. Is it my imagination, or is he hitting a lot of weak pop ups lately?

 

Anyway, he's supposed to be our table setter. He has not been getting the job done.

 

He was moved to the cleanup spot on May 6th. For one week, he killed it, batting .387/.472/.935/1.408. Over that span, the offense scored 53 runs, averaging about 7.6 runs/game.

 

After that 1st week, however, since May 14th, Mookie has been hitting .194/.272/.333/.605. While we have blamed JBJ, Marrero, Pablo, Hanley, etc. for stinking with the bat, Mookie has been a big part of whatever offensive struggles the team has had over the past 3+ weeks.

[Emp9]

Our offense has been the cause of a lot of frustration, and through most of the frustration, Mookie has gotten a free pass. For the past couple of weeks, there have been times when he has looked pretty bad. Is it my imagination, or is he hitting a lot of weak pop ups lately?

 

Anyway, he's supposed to be our table setter. He has not been getting the job done.

 

He was moved to the cleanup spot on May 6th. For one week, he killed it, batting .387/.472/.935/1.408. Over that span, the offense scored 53 runs, averaging about 7.6 runs/game.

 

After that 1st week, however, since May 14th, Mookie has been hitting .194/.272/.333/.605. While we have blamed JBJ, Marrero, Pablo, Hanley, etc. for stinking with the bat, Mookie has been a big part of whatever offensive struggles the team has had over the past 3+ weeks.

 

Well, in my opinion, Mookie shouldn't be either lead-off or clean-up. 2nd or 3rd, but mostly 3rd is where he should be batting. I agree though that Mookie could be doing better and I think it's just a matter of time. But we're probably just wasting his talents if he stays at lead-off when that happens. I'm not gonna lie, and I've said this before... but I absolutely hate Farrell's lineups. You may not think this matters, but I f***ing DO. You can't just shuffle the stats after the fact and think that that's what would've happened anyway. Not when Wins and Losses are on the line.

[Kimmi]

Well, in my opinion, Mookie shouldn't be either lead-off or clean-up. 2nd or 3rd, but mostly 3rd is where he should be batting. I agree though that Mookie could be doing better and I think it's just a matter of time. But we're probably just wasting his talents if he stays at lead-off when that happens. I'm not gonna lie, and I've said this before... but I absolutely hate Farrell's lineups. You may not think this matters, but I f***ing DO. You can't just shuffle the stats after the fact and think that that's what would've happened anyway. Not when Wins and Losses are on the line.

 

When it comes to Mookie, my opinion is almost directly opposite from yours. I have no problem with Mookie leading off or batting clean up when he is producing like he should be. In fact, those are the two spots I think he should bat in, preferably in the clean up spot. I would not put him 3rd. The 3rd spot is not the spot for your best hitter.

 

That said, it really makes more sense to let the batters hit in the spot where they feel the most comfortable.

[Jasonbay44]

Mookies walk rates are up, strikeout rates are down, he's still hitting the ball hard, but has a low BABIP. He's definitely struggling but I'm not worried. But then again, I'm also not/wasn't worried about JBJ.

 

Now Pablo... that's a different story, he doesn't even show positive signs.

[devildavid]

Our offense has been the cause of a lot of frustration, and through most of the frustration, Mookie has gotten a free pass. For the past couple of weeks, there have been times when he has looked pretty bad. Is it my imagination, or is he hitting a lot of weak pop ups lately?

 

Anyway, he's supposed to be our table setter. He has not been getting the job done.

 

He was moved to the cleanup spot on May 6th. For one week, he killed it, batting .387/.472/.935/1.408. Over that span, the offense scored 53 runs, averaging about 7.6 runs/game.

 

After that 1st week, however, since May 14th, Mookie has been hitting .194/.272/.333/.605. While we have blamed JBJ, Marrero, Pablo, Hanley, etc. for stinking with the bat, Mookie has been a big part of whatever offensive struggles the team has had over the past 3+ weeks.

 

Since you started it, I now feel like its ok to criticize Mookie. I was going to bring it up, but I was afraid to take the heat. I have been an off and on critic of Mookie but sometimes it is taken as bashing. I think the excitement over some of Mookie's exploits overshadow any talk of weaknesses in his game. It's probably too early in his career to accurately gauge what kind of hitter he really is. But you are correct, he has not been hitting lately.