A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I literally did not say that. I didn't like that move, I didn't like what we gave up, and I didn't think Pom could last the season. So far I've been right.

 

Not liking a trade is NOT analogous with wanting to do nothing.

 

But you said you didn't believe in trading from desperation. We were in desperation.

[Hugh2]

But you said you didn't believe in trading from desperation. We were in desperation.

 

That doesn't justify a bad move by default. If we were desperate for a starter would we be justified trading Moncada, Kopech, Devers, Espinoza, and Benintendi for Rich Hill???

 

Thats obviously ridiculous but the point is there is a point where you've given up too much. I don't like the trade, I think we gave up too much talent for Pom. It's also not the talent, it's the ceiling we gave up too. I don't like it, do I not have a right as a fan to hate a trade?

 

Now I'm fully aware I sit in an arm chair typing this (actually a bed) but I would have either explored a trade were I didn't give up as high end talent for Pom, or I added to Espinoza to trade for a more proven commodity.

 

Surely pitchers have been traded at the deadline who have actually pitched one full season in the majors as a starter. At the time of the trade Pom had ZERO such seasons.

[moonslav59]

 

Oh...Thought MVP78 wanted link regarding Benintendi. Not sure where the Kopech thing is. In one of Gammons' recent articles he mentions that one scout said Kopech was best pitcher he saw in AFL this fall. Think I saw what you mentioned on MLB TR.

 

The scout said it was the best session he'd ever seen by a pitching prospect.

[moonslav59]

From MLBTR...

 

The Red Sox have added third baseman Matt Dominguez on a minor-league deal, 1500ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports on Twitter. Dominguez receives an invitation to MLB camp next spring. Still just 27, Dominguez had a short return to the majors last year with the Blue Jays but hasn’t seen substantial time at the game’s highest level since a disappointing 2014 campaign with the Astros. He posted a .269/.315/.421 batting line with 18 long balls at Triple-A last year with the Toronto organization.

 

Free agent slugger Jose Bautista “wanted to work something out” with the Red Sox but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Bautista’s agent that the Sox were out of payroll space. Boston has over $178.3MM committed to just 10 players on the 2017 roster, plus Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig. Adding Bautista on a notable salary would again put the Sox over the luxury tax threshold, putting the team in line for a sizeable penalty.

[Dojji]

Dominguez is an solid insurance move. I don't expect him to play at all in Boston, but he's nice to have if we need him on an emergency basis.

[moonslav59]

Dominguez is an solid insurance move. I don't expect him to play at all in Boston, but he's nice to have if we need him on an emergency basis.

 

And, he hits right-handed, so if he ever is needed, he could platoon at 3B with Pablo, Holt or Hernandez. He's really insurance to the other RH'd 3Bman- Rutledge.

[southpaw777]

Dominguez is an solid insurance move. I don't expect him to play at all in Boston, but he's nice to have if we need him on an emergency basis.

 

We also got Junior Lake for OF depth

[OH FOY]

Dodgers just added 192 million in pay-roll, how's that possible?

[moonslav59]

Dodgers just added 192 million in pay-roll, how's that possible?

 

Their TV contract.

[OH FOY]

That's not it my friend. Dodgers are a smart team. They will be close to being under when the new Luxury Tax penalties come into effect. They really studied the new CBA. Edited December 15, 2016 by OH FOY!

[harmony]

Dodgers just added 192 million in pay-roll, how's that possible?

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-luxury-tax-20161212-story.html

[moonslav59]

That's not it my friend. Dodgers are a smart team. They will be close to being under when the new Luxury Tax penalties come into effect. They really studied the new CBA.

 

Certainly their TV contract plays a big role in their spending.

 

I'm not sure they will be avoiding the luxury tax when the new rules kick in, but they will try to avoid the draft choice drop penalty, if possible.

 

In 2018, they'll still be paying over $20M to other teams on players they traded.

 

They lose some big contracts for 2019, but have some big shoes to fill as well (AGon).

 

I'll believe it when I see it.

[moonslav59]

Our oldest players on our 40 man roster are just 33!

 

33: Pedey & Young (HanRam on DEC 23)

32: Buch and Wright

--It's Buch and Young's last contract year)

31: Price, Abad & Moreland

30: Pablo

29: Kimbrel, Kelly & Holt

28: Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, Thornburg, Ross, Leon, Rutledge, Hembree, Rutledge,

Elias, Workman, Brentz

27: JBJ, Smith, Barnes, Scott & N Ramirez

26: Vaz, Johnson, Martin & Marrero

25: Swihart, Ysla

24: Betts, Bogey, ERod, Hernandez, Owens

22: Beni

[southpaw777]

Our oldest players on our 40 man roster are just 33!

 

33: Pedey & Young (HanRam on DEC 23)

32: Buch and Wright

--It's Buch and Young's last contract year)

31: Price, Abad & Moreland

30: Pablo

29: Kimbrel, Kelly & Holt

28: Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, Thornburg, Ross, Leon, Rutledge, Hembree, Rutledge,

Elias, Workman, Brentz

27: JBJ, Smith, Barnes, Scott & N Ramirez

26: Vaz, Johnson, Martin & Marrero

25: Swihart, Ysla

24: Betts, Bogey, ERod, Hernandez, Owens

22: Beni

 

Its lining up nicely...

[moonslav59]

Its lining up nicely...

 

If you look at just the stars or very promising players:

 

33: Pedey HanRam

32:

31: Price

30:

29: Kimbrel

28: Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, Thornburg

27: Bradley (Leon?)

26: Vaz

25: Swihart

24: Betts, Bogey, ERod

23:

22: Beni

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has an interesting page on future rosters (assuming no additions).

 

http://soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

The have a disclaimer that says these are not roster projections, but they do offer a framework on where our weak spots may be.

 

2020:

SP: Price, ERod, Groome, Wright, Owens, TBall

RP: Smith, Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Martin, Shepherd, Cosart, Ysla

C: Vaz-Swi

1B: Travis-Longhi

2B: Pedey

3B: Devers

SS: Chatham-Hernandez

LF: Beni-Castillo

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: Dalbec

 

2021:

Wright is gone (move TBall & Owens up)

Smith is gone and TBall is remarkably the 5th starter & closer

Longhi is in LF as Beni slide to CF to take JBJ's place.

Castillo replaces Betts in RF

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Chat...

 

Todd Frazier?

3:11 Where does he land?

 

Jeffrey Todd

3:12 I feel like they ought to be plenty motivated to deal him... Giants could still make sense, or maybe even the Red Sox if they clear Buchholz salary?

 

Maybe a 3 team deal?

 

We send Buch and Abad to a contender.

 

We send Owens and Elias to the CWS.

 

The contender sends a prospect to the CWS.

 

We get Frazier and free up luxury tax space.

[Bellhorn04]

MLBTR Chat...

 

Todd Frazier?

3:11 Where does he land?

 

Jeffrey Todd

3:12 I feel like they ought to be plenty motivated to deal him... Giants could still make sense, or maybe even the Red Sox if they clear Buchholz salary?

 

Maybe a 3 team deal?

 

We send Buch and Abad to a contender.

 

We send Owens and Elias to the CWS.

 

The contender sends a prospect to the CWS.

 

We get Frazier and free up luxury tax space.

 

B-R is projecting Frazier's arbitration amount at 13.5 million.

[Kimmi]

The trade for Pomeranz was a deadline trade, and it was only made because we had title aspirations and our rotation was in rough shape at the time. It was somewhat of a desperation move. In those situations you overpay.

 

As much as I've been against Dombrowski selling the farm, oddly enough, I really did not have any problems with the trade for Pomeranz. Yes, we overpaid, but it was a move that needed to be done. Unlike the recent trade for Sale.

[moonslav59]

B-R is projecting Frazier's arbitration amount at 13.5 million.

 

I was thinking he was on his last year at $7.5M, but I was wrong.

 

Nix my idea.

[moonslav59]

As much as I've been against Dombrowski selling the farm, oddly enough, I really did not have any problems with the trade for Pomeranz. Yes, we overpaid, but it was a move that needed to be done. Unlike the recent trade for Sale.

 

Another way to look at it (in hind sight) would be to take back the Pom trade and we'd still have Espi or Kopech (if the CWS took Espi instead or Kopech).

[moonslav59]

Looking at the most recent 3 year sample size, here's how team rank in top SP'ers by...

 

WAR

BOS

4 Price

5 Sale

23 Porcello

 

Cubs

6 Arrieta

7 Lester

29 Lackey

 

CLE

2 Kluber

19 Carrasco

36 Salazar

 

WSH

3 Scherzer

14 Strasburg

24 G Gonzalez

 

SFG

9 Cueto

10 Bumgarner

27 Samardzja

 

HOU

12 Keuchel

22 McHugh

 

LAD

1 Kershaw

[southpaw777]

MLBTR Chat...

 

Todd Frazier?

3:11 Where does he land?

 

Jeffrey Todd

3:12 I feel like they ought to be plenty motivated to deal him... Giants could still make sense, or maybe even the Red Sox if they clear Buchholz salary?

 

Maybe a 3 team deal?

 

We send Buch and Abad to a contender.

 

We send Owens and Elias to the CWS.

 

The contender sends a prospect to the CWS.

 

We get Frazier and free up luxury tax space.

 

Where does Panda and his 18m at 3b fit in to all this? Please dont say DH...

[oldtimer]

Looking at the most recent 3 year sample size, here's how team rank in top SP'ers by...

 

WAR

BOS

4 Price

5 Sale

23 Porcello

 

Cubs

6 Arrieta

7 Lester

29 Lackey

 

CLE

2 Kluber

19 Carrasco

36 Salazar

 

WSH

3 Scherzer

14 Strasburg

24 G Gonzalez

 

SFG

9 Cueto

10 Bumgarner

27 Samardzja

 

HOU

12 Keuchel

22 McHugh

 

LAD

1 Kershaw

 

Baseball by the numbers

[moonslav59]

Where does Panda and his 18m at 3b fit in to all this? Please dont say DH...

 

DH or bench.

 

I'm against this trade, now that I realized Frazier is due a hefty arb raise.

[moonslav59]

Baseball by the numbers

 

Well, all teams are being judged on paper right now. The Cubs have added a couple of nice pen pieces. They should be even better, if that's possible, on paper (or by the numbers).

 

All we can really hope for any given winter, is to improve our team. It looks like we did, by the numbers, but the games are played on the field.

 

It should be a fun year, if the numbers match up with reality.

[moonslav59]

Wow, Ziegler is looking for a 3rd year guaranteed!

 

Rumor has it he has multiple offers on the table at around $17M/2.

 

Makes that "other" Basabe and Almonte trade look even better now.

 

Wish we could have found a way to keep him, but at that cost, we'd pay that and a high tax.

[a700hitter]

Every day that EE remains unsigned, I think it becomes more likely Wheeler Dealer Dave finds a way to get him on the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Every day that EE remains unsigned, I think it becomes more likely Wheeler Dealer Dave finds a way to get him on the Red Sox.

 

If he hadn't signed Moreland, and he can find someone to take Buch and his whole contract, that would be $19M right there.

 

If EE ends up signing for $19M x 2 or 3 years, will you be toasting DD?

[a700hitter]

If he hadn't signed Moreland, and he can find someone to take Buch and his whole contract, that would be $19M right there.

 

If EE ends up signing for $19M x 2 or 3 years, will you be toasting DD?

I think he will get him if that is his price. Moreland will be sent packing.