A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

What if we did not make the deal for Sale? Is it possible that we won anyway? We got a reliever to go along with Carson Smith returning. Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Ross are all year older. If healthy, our starting five should have been decent. We also signed a decent 1B for 1 year. Sale's contract is very enticing I'll admit.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm pretty excited for 2017. I really wanted our OF to stay in tact and got my wish.

 

Best scenario for me? win the next two world series and have Price opt out. Resign Sale and Porcello, Devers and Smith break in at corner infield spots and retain the killer B's. And it would be nice if Groome was ready for 2019 September call up.

 

IMO, we could have done nothing this offseason and been a strong contender. I think we would have still been the favorites to win the AL East. As the saying goes, once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. So yes, it's quite possible that we could have won anyway, and we would still have a strong farm.

[Dojji]

And going exclusively with your farm never results in winning anything.

 

I wouldn't say never, but if there's a time for a team to GFIN, it's probably the point in a team's lifestyle that we currently occupy.

[Spudboy]

I too agree with Dojji.

[Kimmi]

Why borrow trouble? Embrace the team we have now and deal with the aftermath when it's gone. It's DD's job to worry about the future, not ours.

 

It's a baseball forum and it's what we do.

 

I am fully embracing the team we have now. I will thoroughly enjoy watching our team this season.

 

That doesn't mean that I can't be concerned about the long term.

[Kimmi]

And going exclusively with your farm never results in winning anything.

 

And nobody is suggesting that we go exclusively with the farm.

[Dojji]

IMO, we could have done nothing this offseason and been a strong contender. I think we would have still been the favorites to win the AL East. As the saying goes, once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. So yes, it's quite possible that we could have won anyway, and we would still have a strong farm.

 

The farm is never less important than when you currently have a stacked roster. Like I said, Theo torched the farm in 03 and 04 to stack up and try to get this team over the hump, and he did, and the farm system recovered in time to refresh the roster and win again in 07 after one rough year in 2006. It's absolutely possible to put the farm system back on track by the time it matters that the farm system is on track.

 

For the record, I don't think 07 or 13 were necessarily "planned wins" or GFIN years, but 04 absolutely was. I think Theo got fooled by 07 into thinking he could win and farm at the same time -- that's true only sometimes, as he found out to his cost in the slow decline of the big league roster in 2009-2011 that ultimately cost him his place here.

 

You absolutely cannot win all the time and build the farm into a juggernaut, both at the same time. There will come a moment in any given season where you have to pick one or the other and let that define your season. Are you stocking resources this year or are you using them to win? DD is using them. It's the right time to use them. When it's the right time to stockpile, we'll probably see him stockpile.

 

Theo's making exactly the same kinds of decisions in a very similar situation in Chicago. And it was the refusal to do the same here (stocking for the sake of stocking) that cost Cherington his job. You HAVE to be able to tell the difference between save-time and go-time. This is absolutely, completely, 100% go time.

[a700hitter]

And nobody is suggesting that we go exclusively with the farm.

You have been complaining since the Kimbrel trade when we still had many blue chippers in the system. It just seems like you don't like spending prospects.

[Dojji]

And nobody is suggesting that we go exclusively with the farm.

 

Yes you are, you just don't realize it.

 

Prioritizing the farm during a time when your team is at its competitive peak is a misallocation of resources. You can only do so much, can only prioritize so many things at once.. Insisting on preserving the state of the farm as a major priority while the team is at its competitive peak reveals a rigidity in priorities that will do the team no favors in trying to climb to the top of the mountain.

 

There will come a time when we aren't quite at our competitive peak that it will be time to take a Theo style hybrid approach, or even a time when we're struggling for a few years that the time comes to prioritize the farm again.. This is not that time. This is the time to load up, arm the team for bear, and try to strongarm our way to the top. If it fails it fails, but I'll still applaud the attempt.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

Of course. It's usually the case that the team that gets the free agent is the one that pays the most.

 

But you can't really compare what Theo has done with the Cubs to what Dombrowski has done so far with the Red Sox. It's not even close, for several reasons.

 

That wasn't my point at all. I was only responding to the 'Anybody could have done that' comment about overpaying for Price.

[Kimmi]

You have been complaining since the Kimbrel trade when we still had many blue chippers in the system. It just seems like you don't like spending prospects.

 

I thought that we paid too much for Kimbrel, because not only did we give up all the prospects, but we also had to pay Kimbrel free agent money. A double whammy.

 

However, I then said that I was okay with what Dombrowski had done up to that point because, despite giving up 4 prospects, he had not sacrificed our future.....yet.

 

If you recall, I also was okay with trading Espinoza for Pomeranz, because it needed to be done. And our farm was still in good shape.

 

But Dombrowski has since gone on to sacrifice our future.

[Emp9]

You have been complaining since the Kimbrel trade when we still had many blue chippers in the system. It just seems like you don't like spending prospects.

 

To be fair, the Kimbrel trade was the worst way to build a championship & empty the farm at the same time. The Thornburg & Sale trades have been the opposite of that. I still hate the Kimbrel trade to be honest. You won't hear me complain about these last two trades, except that still ... it's 7 - 2 as far as what we got back. DD gets his man, not much else, but gets his man.

[Kimmi]

That wasn't my point at all. I was only responding to the 'Anybody could have done that' comment about overpaying for Price.

 

Yes, anybody could have signed Lester for $20 mil more than the next highest competitor.

[a700hitter]

But Dombrowski has since gone on to sacrifice our future.

This is overly dramatic.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, anybody could have signed Lester for $20 mil more than the next highest competitor.

 

But Theo's the one that actually did it, and I think it was a very good move.

[Kimmi]

The farm is never less important than when you currently have a stacked roster. Like I said, Theo torched the farm in 03 and 04 to stack up and try to get this team over the hump, and he did, and the farm system recovered in time to refresh the roster and win again in 07 after one rough year in 2006. It's absolutely possible to put the farm system back on track by the time it matters that the farm system is on track.

 

For the record, I don't think 07 or 13 were necessarily "planned wins" or GFIN years, but 04 absolutely was. I think Theo got fooled by 07 into thinking he could win and farm at the same time -- that's true only sometimes, as he found out to his cost in the slow decline of the big league roster in 2009-2011 that ultimately cost him his place here.

 

You absolutely cannot win all the time and build the farm into a juggernaut, both at the same time. There will come a moment in any given season where you have to pick one or the other and let that define your season. Are you stocking resources this year or are you using them to win? DD is using them. It's the right time to use them. When it's the right time to stockpile, we'll probably see him stockpile.

 

Theo's making exactly the same kinds of decisions in a very similar situation in Chicago. And it was the refusal to do the same here (stocking for the sake of stocking) that cost Cherington his job. You HAVE to be able to tell the difference between save-time and go-time. This is absolutely, completely, 100% go time.

 

You keep comparing what Dombrowski is doing to what Theo has done. Yes, Theo is making the moves to put his team over the top. He is not gutting his farm to do so.

 

The Cubs look to be good for the foreseeable future. The Sox were competitive teams after both 2004 and 2007. The situations are not the same.

[Kimmi]

Yes you are, you just don't realize it.

 

Prioritizing the farm during a time when your team is at its competitive peak is a misallocation of resources. You can only do so much, can only prioritize so many things at once.. Insisting on preserving the state of the farm as a major priority while the team is at its competitive peak reveals a rigidity in priorities that will do the team no favors in trying to climb to the top of the mountain.

 

There will come a time when we aren't quite at our competitive peak that it will be time to take a Theo style hybrid approach, or even a time when we're struggling for a few years that the time comes to prioritize the farm again.. This is not that time. This is the time to load up, arm the team for bear, and try to strongarm our way to the top. If it fails it fails, but I'll still applaud the attempt.

 

No, I am not.

 

I have said many times that I don't have a problem with any of the deals that Dombrowski made, in and of themselves. Even though it was an overpay, I'm okay with the single deal that we made for Sale. In other words, I am okay with trading prospects to get Sale.

 

It's the overall philosophy and the direction in which this team is headed that I take issue with.

 

There's a difference.

 

You cannot field a team with all farm players. You have to make trades and you have to sign expensive free agents. The goal is to balance the short term with the long term, not win now at any costs.

[Kimmi]

This is overly dramatic.

 

Well you know me. Drama queen extraordinaire.

[Kimmi]

But Theo's the one that actually did it, and I think it was a very good move.

 

Well, Theo is a genius.

 

Not quite sure what your point is.

[Spudboy]

I thought that we paid too much for Kimbrel, because not only did we give up all the prospects, but we also had to pay Kimbrel free agent money. A double whammy.

 

However, I then said that I was okay with what Dombrowski had done up to that point because, despite giving up 4 prospects, he had not sacrificed our future.....yet.

 

If you recall, I also was okay with trading Espinoza for Pomeranz, because it needed to be done. And our farm was still in good shape.

 

But Dombrowski has since gone on to sacrifice our future.

 

Oh come on Kimmi. You have a point and legitimate concern but this is no more than you projecting your opinion as speculation.

 

Yes, the farm has been depleted. But you simply do not know that DD has "gone on to sacrifice our future".

[cp176]

Come on - keep it rolling - it's good for us all - MONCADA (trout) MONCADA (trout) MONCADA (trout)

 

He might be the one!!!

[moonslav59]

I just can't grasp that mentality.

 

Well, we're even: I can't grasp short-sightedness and the culture of instant gratification.

[a700hitter]

I just can't grasp that mentality.

 

Well, we're even: I can't grasp short-sightedness and the culture of instant gratification.

You have attributed to me a mentality to which I never said that I ascribed. In other words, you are putting words in my mouth. I don't let worries about the future ruin enjoyment of a present with very bright possibilities.

[Spudboy]

I don't get it. With the exception of losing Ortiz the Sox are the strongest team that we have had in a while.

 

Why are people bitching?

[moonslav59]

You have attributed to me a mentality to which I never said that I ascribed. In other words, you are putting words in my mouth. I don't let worries about the future ruin enjoyment of a present with very bright possibilities.

 

You just put the words right in your own mouth.

 

I hope you're not attributing or assuming that because some of us worry about the future we can't enjoy the bright present. The two are not mutually exclusive for some people.

[a700hitter]

You just put the words right in your own mouth.

 

I hope you're not attributing or assuming that because some of us worry about the future we can't enjoy the bright present. The two are not mutually exclusive for some people.

I didn't say the words you were putting in my mouth about short-sightedness and a culture of instant gratification. I said the following:

 

Exactly. We have a team full of young stars in their primes or approaching their primes. Why are people looking forward with angst to 2020 and beyond. I just can't grasp that mentality.

In other words, when I am having a lot of fun at a party, I am not worrying about the work involved in the cleanup. But I still have to clean up. So I am not shortsighted, nor is their a culture of instant gratification. I have been a fan for 50 years. The good times don't come that often, so I don't think about the crash afterward, because there is absolutely nothing that I can do about it and your worrying won't do any good either.

[moonslav59]

I don't get it. With the exception of losing Ortiz the Sox are the strongest team that we have had in a while.

 

Why are people bitching?

 

I love the team we have and am happy with most of DD's moves. I'm not bitching, but I'm one that enjoys both the present and looking to the future. The future concerns me, and if not sugar coating the future is taken as bitching, it wasn't meant to be, on my part anyway.

 

There is no getting around the fact that there is a very strong probability that this team will have serious roster construction issues in 3-6 years (maybe 4-7 years). For those living in just the present, don't start crying when it happens. Don't blame DD. You supported the philosophy.

 

I wanna win now too. Maybe we could have won without 1 or two of these moves, but trying to play it half way (or both ways) runs the risk of coming so close while never reaching the promise land. I went through that for decades. If I had it my way, I'd have not traded Espi, and maybe tried to find a better way to acquire a less costly closer, but it is what it is.

 

We are the clear AL favorites and are close to the Cubbies on paper. We are set for 2-3 years. We have a fantastic group of prime and under prime talent, and we should be able to keep most of them beyond 3-4 years. We shouldn't suck from 4-7 years, but it will be hard to put a top competitive team on the field beyond 4 years without some serious aginst-the odds s*** going down over the next few years-- like drafting another Mookie in the fifth round.

 

I'm psyched about this team. Spudboy is right. This is the best Sox team in a while. I'd go so far as to say, this team is as good on paper as our recent ring teams. Yeah, we lack the Mannys and Papis, but we're balanced on offense, have a much better defense, and our rotation and starter depth is as good as ever. I love great pitching and defense. I'm in heaven.

[moonslav59]

I didn't say the words you were putting in my mouth about short-sightedness and a culture of instant gratification. I said the following:

 

In other words, when I am having a lot of fun at a party, I am not worrying about the work involved in the cleanup. But I still have to clean up. So I am not shortsighted, nor is their a culture of instant gratification. I have been a fan for 50 years. The good times don't come that often, so I don't think about the crash afterward, because there is absolutely nothing that I can do about it and your worrying won't do any good either.

 

I was talking about these words:

 

I don't let worries about the future ruin enjoyment of a present with very bright possibilities.

 

[a700hitter]

I was talking about these words:

 

I don't let worries about the future ruin enjoyment of a present with very bright possibilities.

 

That does not represent short sightedness nor a culture of instant gratification. I didn't say that there was no understanding on my part that the farm system has been weakened or that future teams could be weakened. I just don't let those worries ruin my enjoyment of the present especially when the present is so bright, and I have no control over any of it.

[Nick]

I enjoy 'constructing' a team that's been my favorite since 1967. I'm a nerd. I enjoy predicting what the team may look like five or six years from now.

 

I will say this for nay sayers. We are one of top 5 spending teams in the league and that will not change. If we can't build a future with $200M annual spending, well I have no sympathy.

[southpaw777]

I was dead set vs trading away Moncada and Kopech. We invested $60M on Moncada. Kopech was that kid that had a chance to break the stigma of not developing TORS internally.

 

Now there's a tremendous pressure on Groome and Devers to come through for the organization. At some point, one of these kids will have to show up as a star in mlb.

 

Isnt there some level of pressure that the kids have anyway to just get to MLB? Which is probably a lot. ALL of them have the same pressure, whether from fans, management, and most of all themselves.

I was high on Kopech the most. Saw him as our "Noah Syndergaard" in a couple years. We have a nice 3 year window to draft, trade, and overall just stock the farm. No reason we cant go for a couple collage pitchers the first few rounds to have a couple guys closer to the show. I agree that losing him hurts a bit. Kopech more than Moncada for me.

DDs moves will become the right ones if his team can draft and develop over the next three years. The good thing is we have some time to stock the syatem again and the financial ability to make other moves.

The fact that we have a LOT of $$ coming off the books the next 3 years means we can restock the farm, sign some young players that will be up for FA and keep the flow and balance of prospect/FA/trades going.