A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

There was a chance Bogaerts would flop and be the next Lars Anderson. Betts could of flopped, and almost all of humanity gave up on JBJ...heck! Porcello never pitched much more than average until he was 27.

 

Every prospect has a bust factor until they are in the big leagues, performing, putting up numbers, and officially not a bust.

 

Yes, and I get the argument that others have made that until a prospect does something special at the AA or AAA level, there's much more of a bustability factor.

 

What wows me about Espi is his near unlimited ceiling.

[Hugh2]

Yes, and I get the argument that others have made that until a prospect does something special at the AA or AAA level, there's much more of a bustability factor.

 

What wows me about Espi is his near unlimited ceiling.

 

It's a little bit easier to project pitching prospects because you can measure velocity, you can project body types etc etc etc. It's a lot harder to predict how a batter is going to adjust to seeing advanced breaking stuff, and control until they got there.

 

At the same time, a younger pitcher can have a lot more go wrong during their development as well if they get injured or never reign in their command. Espinoza was special, still a lot of risk but very special regardless. We could end up really regretting that trade one day.

[southpaw777]

It's a little bit easier to project pitching prospects because you can measure velocity, you can project body types etc etc etc. It's a lot harder to predict how a batter is going to adjust to seeing advanced breaking stuff, and control until they got there.

 

At the same time, a younger pitcher can have a lot more go wrong during their development as well if they get injured or never reign in their command. Espinoza was special, still a lot of risk but very special regardless. We could end up really regretting that trade one day.

 

If the move makes sense at the time, which it did, then you regret nothing. You hope the player you got did the job you need and wish the other well. Pom solidifies the BOTR with the upside of a 2-3 for low $$ and years of control. I think it was all part of the 3-4 year window plan.

Espinoza has some special qualities, that if developed, he could become a very special MLB player in 3-5 years. As long as Pom does what was expected of him, then the deal should have zero regrets regardless of how Espi does in a few years.

[moonslav59]

If the move makes sense at the time, which it did, then you regret nothing.

 

I disagree but understand the sentiment.

 

You hope the player you got did the job you need and wish the other well. Pom solidifies the BOTR with the upside of a 2-3 for low $$ and years of control. I think it was all part of the 3-4 year window plan.

 

Yes, but I don't think DD foresaw getting Sale. No fault there.

 

Espinoza has some special qualities, that if developed, he could become a very special MLB player in 3-5 years. As long as Pom does what was expected of him, then the deal should have zero regrets regardless of how Espi does in a few years.

 

Even if Espi becomes the next Pedro at minimum wage?

[sk7326]

Espinoza could bust - but he has an immense ceiling. And ceiling is what a team like the Red Sox have their farm system for. Anderson was a clear bust - although I am not sure the industry (or the Sox) would value that sort of player to the same degree anymore.

 

The Red Sox philosophy the past several years - get good athletes, with an emphasis on up the middle - is a strong idea - bet on the athlete. Sometimes it really works (Betts), sometimes it works a little (Middlebrooks) and others it doesn't. I don't think Anderson really fit that dossier.

[Eddy Ballgame]

There was a chance Bogaerts would flop and be the next Lars Anderson. Betts could of flopped, and almost all of humanity gave up on JBJ...heck! Porcello never pitched much more than average until he was 27.

 

Every prospect has a bust factor until they are in the big leagues, performing, putting up numbers, and officially not a bust.

 

As fans, we obviously aren't privy to all of the information about prospects that different organizations are. It's a team's job to keep all "red flags" as hidden as possible, so they can get the most value for a kid if they don't see him as part of the future.

 

There were red flags with several prospects they've moved over the years and sometimes even when there weren't, they still felt it was the right move at the time.

 

They also obviously have reasons why they consider Benintendi & Devers "untouchable" at this point. According to Gammons, Mickey Callaway & John Gibbons both said that the ball sounded "louder" coming off of Benintendi's bat than anyone in the A.L. this season & the Guardians advance scouting team said that he was the only Sox hitter that they couldn't "game plan" for. Pretty good stuff. I personally can't remember a left handed swing as pure as his since maybe Fred Lynn. At the end of the day, teams need to take risks once in a while if they ever want to win. As fans, we really have no idea how big the risk is or isn't at the time.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Eddy Ballgame

[mvp 78]

Hard to gameplan for a guy who has barely any playing time. I'm not sure that's an indication of how great Beni is or isn't.

[S5Dewey]

As fans, we obviously aren't privy to all of the information about prospects that different organizations are. It's a team's job to keep all "red flags" as hidden as possible, so they can get the most value for a kid if they don't see him as part of the future.

 

There were red flags with several prospects they've moved over the years and sometimes even when there weren't, they still felt it was the right move at the time.

 

They also obviously have reasons why they consider Benintendi & Devers "untouchable" at this point. According to Gammons, Mickey Callaway & John Gibbons both said that the ball sounded "louder" coming off of Benintendi's bat than anyone in the A.L. this season & the Guardians advance scouting team said that he was the only Sox hitter that they couldn't "game plan" for. Pretty good stuff. I personally can't remember a left handed swing as pure as his since maybe Fred Lynn. At the end of the day, teams need to take risks once in a while if they ever want to win. As fans, we really have no idea how big the risk is or isn't at the time.

 

This is simply an excellent post. Thanks for reminding us that as fans not only do we not know all the answers, we often don't even know all the questions. And we shouldn't.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Hard to gameplan for a guy who has barely any playing time. I'm not sure that's an indication of how great Beni is or isn't.

 

In the context in which the article was written,

It clearly had nothing to do with not seeing enough of him.

[Eddy Ballgame]

This is simply an excellent post. Thanks for reminding us that as fans not only do we not know all the answers, we often don't even know all the questions. And we shouldn't.

 

Thanks, S5.

[moonslav59]

As fans, we obviously aren't privy to all of the information about prospects that different organizations are. It's a team's job to keep all "red flags" as hidden as possible, so they can get the most value for a kid if they don't see him as part of the future.

 

There were red flags with several prospects they've moved over the years and sometimes even when there weren't, they still felt it was the right move at the time.

 

They also obviously have reasons why they consider Benintendi & Devers "untouchable" at this point. According to Gammons, Mickey Callaway & John Gibbons both said that the ball sounded "louder" coming off of Benintendi's bat than anyone in the A.L. this season & the Guardians advance scouting team said that he was the only Sox hitter that they couldn't "game plan" for. Pretty good stuff. I personally can't remember a left handed swing as pure as his since maybe Fred Lynn. At the end of the day, teams need to take risks once in a while if they ever want to win. As fans, we really have no idea how big the risk is or isn't at the time.

 

Nice post.

 

I heard one scout said Kopech had the best stuff he's ever seen in an outting.

[moonslav59]

Hard to gameplan for a guy who has barely any playing time. I'm not sure that's an indication of how great Beni is or isn't.

 

Makes you wonder how people would be reacting now, if we swapped Moncada and Beni's short 2016 sample sizes.

Edited December 14, 2016 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

In the context in which the article was written,

It clearly had nothing to do with not seeing enough of him.

 

Link?

[Eddy Ballgame]

Nice post.

 

I heard one scout said Kopech had the best stuff he's ever seen in an outting.

 

Thanks...Heard the same. It sounds like Kopech will have to self implode or suffer from serious injuries not to have some type of MLB career at this point. It also seems like the ceiling and the floor on this kid are as far apart as it gets.

[moonslav59]

Link?

 

I can't find it, but I'll look later.

 

The context was a scout talking about a single observation game, so that's important. He said it was the best he's ever seen a pitcher pitch....something like that.

 

There was also the report that he hit 105 on a radar gun, but many doubt the accuracy of that claim.

[S5Dewey]

I can't find it, but I'll look later.

 

The context was a scout talking about a single observation game, so that's important. He said it was the best he's ever seen a pitcher pitch....something like that.

 

There was also the report that he hit 105 on a radar gun, but many doubt the accuracy of that claim.

 

Guns are a bit unreliable. To make a long story short, I was at a College Regional where a scout said about a particular pitcher, "We had him at 96 on the JUGS gun but they had him at 94 on the RAY gun. The JUGS gun is always a bit higher."

[oldtimer]

As fans, we obviously aren't privy to all of the information about prospects that different organizations are. It's a team's job to keep all "red flags" as hidden as possible, so they can get the most value for a kid if they don't see him as part of the future.

 

There were red flags with several prospects they've moved over the years and sometimes even when there weren't, they still felt it was the right move at the time.

 

They also obviously have reasons why they consider Benintendi & Devers "untouchable" at this point. According to Gammons, Mickey Callaway & John Gibbons both said that the ball sounded "louder" coming off of Benintendi's bat than anyone in the A.L. this season & the Guardians advance scouting team said that he was the only Sox hitter that they couldn't "game plan" for. Pretty good stuff. I personally can't remember a left handed swing as pure as his since maybe Fred Lynn. At the end of the day, teams need to take risks once in a while if they ever want to win. As fans, we really have no idea how big the risk is or isn't at the time.

 

Clearly, as fans we are not into the intimate details of players attitudes and performances. It also seems clear that the organizations collective wisdom is less than perfect. Castillo, Craig, Sandoval and others seconds that.

 

What should be the goal is to fill real imminent needs with players of at least equal value to those traded, while containing risk? In the case of Sale, you could say we filled a need for a Ace level starting.

 

Was it an imminent need? Our staff looked decent without him but better with him. Is there risk with a pitcher like Sale? Absolutely and the risk is moderate.

 

Were the assets equal of less in value to us? We had a major investment in Moncada who may play in the majors for many years while Kopech appears to have a major league career ahead. Basabe and Diaz are decent assets to fill out a minor league program with a possibility of further development.

 

So at the end of the day, we have to trust that our organization is informed enough and has established the correct goals (win now) and that this trade and or other trades will prove to be beneficial.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Link?[/http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-reflections-and-notes-from-winter-meetings/

 

There's your "link"

[Hugh2]

If the move makes sense at the time, which it did, then you regret nothing. You hope the player you got did the job you need and wish the other well. Pom solidifies the BOTR with the upside of a 2-3 for low $$ and years of control. I think it was all part of the 3-4 year window plan.

Espinoza has some special qualities, that if developed, he could become a very special MLB player in 3-5 years. As long as Pom does what was expected of him, then the deal should have zero regrets regardless of how Espi does in a few years.

 

I think that's debatable. There was a lot of worry about Pomeranz ability to pitch down the stretch, and he's never proven to be a starting pitcher for a full season.

 

Surely most are happy with the Chris Sale trade, but what if we traded Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, and Diaz for Thornburg instead? I think it's reasonable that most sensible fans would see that as a major waste of resources.

 

I found the trade for a guy who's never proven to have the durability to be a starter in the majors a major overpay by giving up a guy who's arguably the best pitching prospect we've had in a decade, and arguably the best pitching prospect in the game. Now Pom may very well come back and prove himself and I'm optimistic he can but I don't like the trade and I suspect I will never like a trade on that scale. If I'm giving up talent where the sky is the limit, I expect similar value back. I'd feel much better about packaging Espinoza up with a few other prospect for a more reliable and proven commodity E.G. The Sale trade.

[Hugh2]

As fans, we obviously aren't privy to all of the information about prospects that different organizations are. It's a team's job to keep all "red flags" as hidden as possible, so they can get the most value for a kid if they don't see him as part of the future.

 

There were red flags with several prospects they've moved over the years and sometimes even when there weren't, they still felt it was the right move at the time.

 

They also obviously have reasons why they consider Benintendi & Devers "untouchable" at this point. According to Gammons, Mickey Callaway & John Gibbons both said that the ball sounded "louder" coming off of Benintendi's bat than anyone in the A.L. this season & the Guardians advance scouting team said that he was the only Sox hitter that they couldn't "game plan" for. Pretty good stuff. I personally can't remember a left handed swing as pure as his since maybe Fred Lynn. At the end of the day, teams need to take risks once in a while if they ever want to win. As fans, we really have no idea how big the risk is or isn't at the time.

 

Fair points. However I suspect teams know more about the guys they are trading for than we realize. As you said teams will always know more about their own guys; that's very reasonable. But teams have vast scouting departments and not only is it normal to ramp up scouting with teams you trade often with but teams will also ramp up scouting of particular players as well. They also exchange medicals as well and as we've seen with the Padres it's not smiled upon to be fraudulent about certain prospects. I think teams generally know exactly what they're buying.

 

However I'd agree with you teams often think they are selling high, but sometimes other teams think they're buying low. Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong.

 

I think there are other times however where you don't trade a guy because there are red flags or because you're down on them but rather you realize you have to give up tremendous value to get it back.

 

The Sox may very well think the world of Moncada and Kopech, but that's the price you pay for Chris Sale.

[Kimmi]

Peter Gammons wrote in his column the other day that the White Sox wanted to build a package around Benintendi & Devers, but DD said they were both off limits, so Rick Hahn "settled" on Moncada. He wrote that Swihart is also "untouchable" in a previous column.

 

That's possible. I wrote my post based off of what Alex Speier wrote in his article about how the trade came about.

[Kimmi]

You don't think DD would have subbed Swihart for Kopech?

 

I have no idea. I'm just going off of what I've read.

 

Dombrowski seems to be very high on Swihart right now.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that's debatable. There was a lot of worry about Pomeranz ability to pitch down the stretch, and he's never proven to be a starting pitcher for a full season.

 

Surely most are happy with the Chris Sale trade, but what if we traded Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, and Diaz for Thornburg instead? I think it's reasonable that most sensible fans would see that as a major waste of resources.

 

I found the trade for a guy who's never proven to have the durability to be a starter in the majors a major overpay by giving up a guy who's arguably the best pitching prospect we've had in a decade, and arguably the best pitching prospect in the game. Now Pom may very well come back and prove himself and I'm optimistic he can but I don't like the trade and I suspect I will never like a trade on that scale. If I'm giving up talent where the sky is the limit, I expect similar value back. I'd feel much better about packaging Espinoza up with a few other prospect for a more reliable and proven commodity E.G. The Sale trade.

 

The trade for Pomeranz was a deadline trade, and it was only made because we had title aspirations and our rotation was in rough shape at the time. It was somewhat of a desperation move. In those situations you overpay.

[Hugh2]

The trade for Pomeranz was a deadline trade, and it was only made because we had title aspirations and our rotation was in rough shape at the time. It was somewhat of a desperation move. In those situations you overpay.

 

I understand why the trade was made, I don't believe in trading from desperation. Pomeranz was a career reliever starting and approaching a predictable slow down due to his innings. If you want to justify giving up a prospect as promising as Espinoza, then I would have wanted to get back a more reliable commodity.

[moonslav59]

Link?[/http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-reflections-and-notes-from-winter-meetings/

 

There's your "link"

 

I didn't see it on this link.

[Nick]

I understand why the trade was made, I don't believe in trading from desperation. Pomeranz was a career reliever starting and approaching a predictable slow down due to his innings. If you want to justify giving up a prospect as promising as Espinoza, then I would have wanted to get back a more reliable commodity.

 

So you would have risked not winning the division title by doing nothing? I'm glad we made the trade, I'm glad we won the Division. I want Monday am quarterbacks to tell Ortiz we're doing NOTHING because we don't want to mortgage our future at the time when we were desperate for a starter.

[Eddy Ballgame]

 

I didn't see it on this link.

 

Go to Petergammonsdaily.com and click on the article there. It's in the paragraph directly below the pic of Sale.

[moonslav59]

 

Go to Petergammonsdaily.com and click on the article there. It's in the paragraph directly below the pic of Sale.

 

It says nothing about the scout saying Kopech was the best he'd ever seem.

[Eddy Ballgame]

 

It says nothing about the scout saying Kopech was the best he'd ever seem.

 

Oh...Thought MVP78 wanted link regarding Benintendi. Not sure where the Kopech thing is. In one of Gammons' recent articles he mentions that one scout said Kopech was best pitcher he saw in AFL this fall. Think I saw what you mentioned on MLB TR.

[Hugh2]

So you would have risked not winning the division title by doing nothing? I'm glad we made the trade, I'm glad we won the Division. I want Monday am quarterbacks to tell Ortiz we're doing NOTHING because we don't want to mortgage our future at the time when we were desperate for a starter.

 

I literally did not say that. I didn't like that move, I didn't like what we gave up, and I didn't think Pom could last the season. So far I've been right.

 

Not liking a trade is NOT analogous with wanting to do nothing.