A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Spudboy]

Visual updates on Pablo Sandoval:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/pablo_sandoval_posts_instagram.html#incart_river_index

 

I guess that I can no longer call him Fatboy or Tub Of Goo.

 

He looks really good. About 220 or so is my guess which is fine for a guy his size.

 

I hope that he has the ability to stay in shape and that he rapidly reacquires his timing and stroke at the plate. Maybe even switch hit again.

[FredLynn]

I guess that I can no longer call him Fatboy or Tub Of Goo.

 

He looks really good. About 220 or so is my guess which is fine for a guy his size.

 

I hope that he has the ability to stay in shape and that he rapidly reacquires his timing and stroke at the plate. Maybe even switch hit again.

 

He is only squatting 185. Real men squat two plates, 225.....

[S5Dewey]

I guess that I can no longer call him Fatboy or Tub Of Goo.

 

He looks really good. About 220 or so is my guess which is fine for a guy his size.

 

I hope that he has the ability to stay in shape and that he rapidly reacquires his timing and stroke at the plate. Maybe even switch hit again.

 

My thoughts exactly. I will no longer refer to him as The Fat Man, although I still won't call him "Panda". That's a term of endearment and the only way he's going to endear himself to me is by playing well enough to earn that salary - which I hope he does. I'd like nothing better than to be proven wrong about BOTH Hanley and Sandoval and right now I'm One-for Two.

[notin]

He is only squatting 185. Real men squat two plates, 225.....

 

Unless he's doing 100 reps;)

[moonslav59]

What is your source here?

 

Soxprospects.com has Kimbrel down for $13mill in 2017 and B-R has him for $13.5.

 

This is probably why we don't get the sane figures. Inconsistent reporting...

 

$10.5M is the luxury tax number- the average salary of his contract. Cot's has this...

 

4 years/$42M (2014-17), plus 2018 club option

signed extension with Atlanta 2/16/14 (avoided arbitration, $9M-$6.55M)

$1M signing bonus

14:$7M, 15:9M, 16:$11M, 17:$13M, 18:$13M club option ($1M buyout)

may earn additional $3.5M in performance bonuses

award bonuses, including $50,000 for All-Star selection

Edited December 17, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Doubtful the Sox bullpen comes in under $20 million. Kimbrel is $13 million by himself and if Buchholz returns to the bullpen he adds another $13.5million.

 

But even without Clay, Ross, Thornburg, Abad, and Kelly are all up for arbitration. Pretty good chance they total up at least close to $7mill.

 

I do disagree Dombrowski is bothered by this and working on the limit. He had options, like non-tendering Abad or Ross and keeping minimum wage Robby Scott, for example. He just didn't do them...

 

We should keep Ross. He's been very consistent over recent years.

 

I'd trade Abad & Elias. I'd try to squeeze Hembree onto the 25 man roster (creative with the DL- which is now 10 days long).

 

I've been saying all along, trading Buch solves a lot of financial problems that should outweigh the loss of starter depth, as we will have close to $13M of flex money to spend over the season. For example, if we can get to the deadline, we could trade for a starter making $30M and only be hit with a $10M charge.

[notin]

I've been saying all along, trading Buch solves a lot of financial problems that should outweigh the loss of starter depth, as we will have close to $13M of flex money to spend over the season. For example, if we can get to the deadline, we could trade for a starter making $30M and only be hit with a $10M charge.

 

Keeping Buchholz and using the options on Rodriguez and Barnes makes the most sense. We won't be able to get a pitcher with that type of contract unless he sucks.. Last deadline the Twins decided it made sense to keep the remarkably inconsistent Ervin Santana because replacing him would be too difficult even at his price point. Look how much mediocre pitchers go for now. It only gets worse at the deadline, because that's not a desperation tine for sellers nearly as much as it is for buyers...

[harmony]

We should keep Ross. He's been very consistent over recent years.

 

I'd trade Abad & Elias. I'd try to squeeze Hembree onto the 25 man roster (creative with the DL- which is now 10 days long).

 

I've been saying all along, trading Buch solves a lot of financial problems that should outweigh the loss of starter depth, as we will have close to $13M of flex money to spend over the season. For example, if we can get to the deadline, we could trade for a starter making $30M and only be hit with a $10M charge.

What are the trade values of two lefthanders who each posted a negative 0.2 fWAR for the Red Sox last season?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

A trade partner would need to think either was worthy of a roster slot, including Fernando Abad at a projected salary of $2 million.

[moonslav59]

What are the trade values of two lefthanders who each posted a negative 0.2 fWAR for the Red Sox last season?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

A trade partner would need to think either was worthy of a roster slot, including Fernando Abad at a projected salary of $2 million.

 

2 bags of used balls is the floor. Pat Light types might be the ceiling... far away prospects not needing 40 man roster status.

 

DFA if nobody bites.

[moonslav59]

Keeping Buchholz and using the options on Rodriguez and Barnes makes the most sense. We won't be able to get a pitcher with that type of contract unless he sucks.. Last deadline the Twins decided it made sense to keep the remarkably inconsistent Ervin Santana because replacing him would be too difficult even at his price point. Look how much mediocre pitchers go for now. It only gets worse at the deadline, because that's not a desperation tine for sellers nearly as much as it is for buyers...

 

Putting who I believe is our best 4 slot starter, ERod, in AAA has some merit, but it saves us no money and still probably keeps a $13.5 M arm in the pen with Wright and Pom as the 4-5 starters.

[Hugh2]

Unless he's doing 100 reps;)

 

My thoughts exactly.

 

Who knows how many reps or sets he's doing, how much rest he's getting or whether he's super setting etc etc etc.

 

Whatever he's doing it's working.

[raider_35_24]

My thoughts exactly.

 

Who knows how many reps or sets he's doing, how much rest he's getting or whether he's super setting etc etc etc.

 

Whatever he's doing it's working.

 

you got that right! he looks damn good he better keep it up because we need him!

[cp176]

Visual updates on Pablo Sandoval:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/pablo_sandoval_posts_instagram.html#incart_river_index

 

He really looks good! Good for him - Good for us!

[vjcsmoke]

Keeping Buchholz and using the options on Rodriguez and Barnes makes the most sense. We won't be able to get a pitcher with that type of contract unless he sucks.. Last deadline the Twins decided it made sense to keep the remarkably inconsistent Ervin Santana because replacing him would be too difficult even at his price point. Look how much mediocre pitchers go for now. It only gets worse at the deadline, because that's not a desperation tine for sellers nearly as much as it is for buyers...

 

Naah it's time for Buccholz to go. It will be a good thing to start the season under the luxury tax, as repeat offenders get hit even harder. He's not worth 13.5M PLUS the luxury tax hit.

I'm not going to miss his maddening inconsistency. We have enough depth in the starting pitching now with Erod, Steven Wright, Pomeranz, and Joe Kelly for the back end of the rotation.

 

I'm going to miss Koji Uehara and Tazawa, our japanese duo of relievers. We'll always have 2013. But it was time to move on.

That's part of successful baseball as well, knowing when to move on.

 

I really hope that Sandoval has turned the corner. When in shape he was an actual contributor for a WS winning Giants team. And we're not going to move him without eating a lot of money at this point. So it's better to hope he's gonna turn it around.

[Kimmi]

Another way to look at it (in hind sight) would be to take back the Pom trade and we'd still have Espi or Kopech (if the CWS took Espi instead or Kopech).

 

It would be nice if we could take that trade back to help replenish our farm.

[notin]

What are the trade values of two lefthanders who each posted a negative 0.2 fWAR for the Red Sox last season?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

A trade partner would need to think either was worthy of a roster slot, including Fernando Abad at a projected salary of $2 million.

 

I thought you were all about Steamer projections this time of year

[moonslav59]

I thought you were all about Steamer projections this time of year

 

Both Abad and Elias are +0.1 with steamer.

[Bellhorn04]

Both Abad and Elias are +0.1 with steamer.

 

They're non-entities whatever method is used.

[harmony]

Both Abad and Elias are +0.1 with steamer.

To elaborate, Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for starters and 65 innings for relievers, projected 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 200 innings for Roenis Elias and 0.1 in 65 innings for Fernando Abad:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

[Spudboy]

I would never label my business or service Steamer.

 

Sounds like a load of s***.

[Bellhorn04]

Damned if I didn't have to find out why it's called Steamer. The 3 guys that created it went to Saint Ann's High School in NY together and the nickname of the sports teams is the Steamers.

 

Yes I know Spud, it's still a bad name.

[notin]

To elaborate, Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for starters and 65 innings for relievers, projected 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 200 innings for Roenis Elias and 0.1 in 65 innings for Fernando Abad:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

So minimum wage earner Roenis Elias should have a lot of surplus value at that valuation.

[moonslav59]

We should trade Buch, Abad and Elias (not to the same team) for the best we can get, even if it's not much.

[Nick]

I'm just glad you're not managing the Sox. You really don't have a clue how E Rod is valued by DD, do you? Send him back to minors? For what? Why not send back Beni so we can keep him under team control little longer.

 

DD told John to play the best 3B and not worry about the contracts. E Rod belongs in Sox rotation.

[harmony]

We should trade Buch, Abad and Elias (not to the same team) for the best we can get, even if it's not much.

If Roenis Elias and his league-minimum salary have surplus value, perhaps a package with Clay Buchholz would make the latter's $13.5 million salary more palatable to a trade partner.

 

Of course a trade partner would be required to devote two roster slots to Elias and Buchholz.

[moonslav59]

If Roenis Elias and his league-minimum salary have surplus value, perhaps a package with Clay Buchholz would make the latter's $13.5 million salary more palatable to a trade partner.

 

Of course a trade partner would be required to devote two roster slots to Elias and Buchholz.

 

That's why I said "different teams" due to roster tightness for most teams.

[moonslav59]

Great article on Ziegler the freak...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brad-ziegler-is-a-freak/

[moonslav59]

Our starting pitchers and years of team control (assuming Price does not opt out):

C. Sale X X X

Porc'llo X X X

D Price X X X X X X

E Rodr. X X X X X

Wright X X X X

Pomrnz X X

Bucholz X

 

Best hopes for in house solutions:

Age/Pitcher

18 Groome

26 Johnson

24 Owens

28 Workman (3 years of control)

28 Elias (no options/5 years of control)

22 TBall

22 Shawaryn

17 B Mata

 

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by moonslav59

[raider_35_24]

Our starting pitchers and years of team control (assuming Price does not opt out):

C. Sale X X X

Porc'llo X X X

D Price X X X X X X

E Rodr. X X X X X

Wright X X X X

Pomrnz X X

Bucholz X

 

Best hopes for in house solutions:

Age/Pitcher

18 Groome

26 Johnson

24 Owens

28 Workman (3 years of control)

28 Elias (no options/5 years of control)

22 TBall

22 Shawaryn

17 B Mata

 

 

 

out of those guys...i like groome and shawaryn.

[moonslav59]

New Rankings for the remaining Sox prospects on soxprospects.com:

 

http://soxprospects.com/index.html

 

1 Benintendi- no surprise

2 Devers- on the rise

3 Groome- only 18

4 Travis- ML ready once re-habbed

5 Dalbec- leap frogged Johnson & Hernandez

6 Johnson

7 Hernandez

8 Chatham

9 Ockimey

10 Raudes- leap frogged Chavis & Longhi

 

11 Chavis, 12 Lomghi, 13 Shawaryn, 14 Ysla, 15 Martin, 16 TBall, 17 Lakins, 18 Cosart, 19 B Mata, 20 Shepherd, 21 Bautista

 

Other fast risers:

Stephen Nogosek 35>25

Robby Scott 50>29

Austin Glorius 45>34

Tyler Hill 47>35