A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[cp176]

Since John Henry bought the franchise we have had exciting reasons to look forward to the next season every year. I doubt seriously that that changes. We now have become legitimate contenders to win a championship as opposed to being a team that will battle for a playoff spot. We are set up very nicely for the next few years. We have an owner with a proven track record of wanting to win and with doing what his GM's suggest it takes to win regardless of what it takes. That isn't going to change as long as he owns the franchise.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, Theo is a genius.

 

Not quite sure what your point is.

 

It was a simple point, really. A GM can 'overpay' for a player and it can still be a smart move, even though critics will say 'Anybody could have done that'.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why are people worried about 2021 right now? You are in your window. Enjoy it! You could be a fan of a team outside their window like me!

[oldtimer]

I love the team we have and am happy with most of DD's moves. I'm not bitching, but I'm one that enjoys both the present and looking to the future. The future concerns me, and if not sugar coating the future is taken as bitching, it wasn't meant to be, on my part anyway.

 

There is no getting around the fact that there is a very strong probability that this team will have serious roster construction issues in 3-6 years (maybe 4-7 years). For those living in just the present, don't start crying when it happens. Don't blame DD. You supported the philosophy.

 

I wanna win now too. Maybe we could have won without 1 or two of these moves, but trying to play it half way (or both ways) runs the risk of coming so close while never reaching the promise land. I went through that for decades. If I had it my way, I'd have not traded Espi, and maybe tried to find a better way to acquire a less costly closer, but it is what it is.

 

We are the clear AL favorites and are close to the Cubbies on paper. We are set for 2-3 years. We have a fantastic group of prime and under prime talent, and we should be able to keep most of them beyond 3-4 years. We shouldn't suck from 4-7 years, but it will be hard to put a top competitive team on the field beyond 4 years without some serious aginst-the odds s*** going down over the next few years-- like drafting another Mookie in the fifth round.

 

I'm psyched about this team. Spudboy is right. This is the best Sox team in a while. I'd go so far as to say, this team is as good on paper as our recent ring teams. Yeah, we lack the Mannys and Papis, but we're balanced on offense, have a much better defense, and our rotation and starter depth is as good as ever. I love great pitching and defense. I'm in heaven.

 

I think that there is at least one additional move to be made by DD which might improve the bullpen and/or reduce the payroll. That said, I am also concerned that the risk assumed by trading 4 prospects for one SP could bite us this year. How many SP's rack up major innings year in and year out without incurring injury?

[moonslav59]

That does not represent short sightedness nor a culture of instant gratification. I didn't say that there was no understanding on my part that the farm system has been weakened or that future teams could be weakened. I just don't let those worries ruin my enjoyment of the present especially when the present is so bright, and I have no control over any of it.

 

Nobody is pretending to have control of the future roster construction or the present one as well.

 

We are debating the significance of the moves made and how they affect the present and future. At times, you seem to want to deny our future will be affected or your position appears to minimize the value of planning for the future. To me, that is short- sighted. You and others want to win now and not worry about the future. You can explain it away as "I don't have any control over it", but that is outside the realm of having a discussion about the Sox now and going forward into the extended future. The moves we made recently will affect the future. If you'd rather not discuss the future, that's fine, but to me it fits into the category of "instant gratification" and sugar coating future concerns.

[moonslav59]

If we can't build a future with $200M annual spending, well I have no sympathy.

 

I totally agree, and sometimes sacrificing some of the future to try and win now makes sense. I like what we did, but I know our future will likely suffer as a result of these moves.

[cp176]

Why are people worried about 2021 right now? You are in your window. Enjoy it! You could be a fan of a team outside their window like me!

 

Exactly

[moonslav59]

Why are people worried about 2021 right now? You are in your window. Enjoy it! You could be a fan of a team outside their window like me!

 

The same could have been said about the Yankees 3-7 years ago, and they didn't even win a ring with their sacrificing of the future. Your future is now. Fire sales. Higher draft picks. Rebuilding the farm.

 

I'm fine with it, and I wouldn't call it "worrying about 2021", but being realistic, we know the day of reckoning will come.

 

Again, I'm happy with the "window" we created, but I am also aware of what the trade-off was.

[moonslav59]

I think that there is at least one additional move to be made by DD which might improve the bullpen and/or reduce the payroll. That said, I am also concerned that the risk assumed by trading 4 prospects for one SP could bite us this year. How many SP's rack up major innings year in and year out without incurring injury?

 

We've used plenty of starters each year. Some years we get over 40 starts from or 6th and lower starters. This year, we used our 10th starter in May (O'Sullivan) and then had to trade for Pomeranz.

 

I loved the Sale trade, but in the context of all the other recent trades, we've done a serious number on our once glowing farm system. With new rules in place making it harder for high-spending teams to acquire young talent, we can't pretend it's going to be easy to build the farm back up. It might take some losing seasons to get higher draft picks. It might mean having some sell-offs in non-contending years.

 

Here's what we've lost in the last 13 months:

 

Sox prospects traded in the last year:

 

Mid-season Baseball America Rankings:

#1 Moncada

#15 Espinosa

#39 Margot

#87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade)

#93 Kopech

 

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21. Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

27. Josh Pennington

30. Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

Here's what we've gained and still have:

 

Sale

Kimbrel

Pomeranz

Thornburg

C Smith

 

These are 5 key pieces to our staff. There's no doubt they have turned us into a serious contender. They've probably put us close to being co-faves with the Cubbies in 2017 and 2018.

 

I love the make-up of this team and accept the consequences that are sure to come.

 

 

[cp176]

I think looking ahead it is important to remember that the draft position that this team has is not nearly as significant as having the right people in place with respect to scouting and player selection. Granted there have been and always will be players going in the first round who do become impact players but more often then not, future stars are found buried somewhere in the draft process. I'm not particularly concerned at all about this groups ability to locate and sign the best available players going forward. No one likes to see good prospects leave town and develop possibly somewhere else even if the return far outweighs their loss at the tim. I have faith in the franchise and honestly there is plenty of time for "our guys" to work their magic out there. As our scouting core goes to work finding the best talent out there, we are going to be in the hunt for titles at the ml level. It is a great time to a Red Sox fan now and certainly as far as I can see into the future. Still got pretty good vision here too.

[S5Dewey]

The same could have been said about the Yankees 3-7 years ago, and they didn't even win a ring with their sacrificing of the future. Your future is now. Fire sales. Higher draft picks. Rebuilding the farm.

 

I'm fine with it, and I wouldn't call it "worrying about 2021", but being realistic, we know the day of reckoning will come.

 

Again, I'm happy with the "window" we created, but I am also aware of what the trade-off was.

 

IMO we all know that trading away the prospects we've traded will have an impact on the team down the road. However, up until 2004 the Sox had a long history of always being the bridesmaid and never the bride (or worse), and part of that was due to their reluctance to make a move when the time was right. And if you want to say that a part of it was also an unwillingness/inability to keep up with the Yankees spending I'll go along with that too - but that's another topic.

 

IMO we've gotten a bit spoiled in the past 10-15 years. We expect to have a contender every year, and being a contender sometimes comes at the price of never catching the brass ring because the FO is afraid to make That Final Move. They're too busy looking to the future to worry about the present. (I could get into a long dissertation about the economics of putting fannies in the seats every year, but I won't). IMO this year the trade for Sale was That Final Move.

 

Now the team is looking to the present and I'll be darned if I can fault them for it. As Jax and others have said, we've got a small window here when we can underpay for the performance of players like Mookie and Bogaerts and use the money saved in that underpayment to build the area where we've been negligent - the pitching staff.

 

These may be our Glory Days... our haydays... for a while, but I'm all for riding this horse until he drops, and if we become relegated to becoming the Yankees of 2016 in 2022 then so be it. But as long as JH owns this team I believe we'll respond just like the Y's are now.

[a700hitter]

Nobody is pretending to have control of the future roster construction or the present one as well.

 

We are debating the significance of the moves made and how they affect the present and future. At times, you seem to want to deny our future will be affected or your position appears to minimize the value of planning for the future. To me, that is short- sighted. You and others want to win now and not worry about the future. You can explain it away as "I don't have any control over it", but that is outside the realm of having a discussion about the Sox now and going forward into the extended future. The moves we made recently will affect the future. If you'd rather not discuss the future, that's fine, but to me it fits into the category of "instant gratification" and sugar coating future concerns.

To accuse a Red Sox fan of 50 years who didn't see a Championship until age 45 of engaging in instant gratification is just preposterous. Let's just say that DD will have a challenge to restock the farm, but we don't know how these moves will affect the future and whether the future is on a downward trajectory, there is no certainty in that regard, because we don't know what DD will do to restock the farm. There is a challenge for him in this regard, but he has time. What we do know for certain is that the 2017 team is stocked with talent which we will be able to enjoy in about 3 months. That is not instant gratification. It is just the present.

[moonslav59]

I think looking ahead it is important to remember that the draft position that this team has is not nearly as significant as having the right people in place with respect to scouting and player selection. Granted there have been and always will be players going in the first round who do become impact players but more often then not, future stars are found buried somewhere in the draft process. I'm not particularly concerned at all about this groups ability to locate and sign the best available players going forward. No one likes to see good prospects leave town and develop possibly somewhere else even if the return far outweighs their loss at the tim. I have faith in the franchise and honestly there is plenty of time for "our guys" to work their magic out there. As our scouting core goes to work finding the best talent out there, we are going to be in the hunt for titles at the ml level. It is a great time to a Red Sox fan now and certainly as far as I can see into the future. Still got pretty good vision here too.

 

We have lost some guys in our scouting and player development team, but who knows, maybe the new guys are better.

 

We may never be able to just purchase a guy like Moncada again. The international market has been very kind to us recently sans Castillo.

 

Bogaerts, Tazawa, Doubront (traded), Moncada (traded), Devers, Iggy (traded), F Montas (traded), J Aro (traded), J Diaz (traded), W Rijo (traded), J Almonte (traded) and many more from longer ago...like HanRam.

 

I'm not saying we will be a last place team in 4-7 years, but it's not going to be easy to win, if we have a roster with salaries like this in 2020-2021:

 

$30M+: Price, Sale & Betts

$20-30M: Porcello, Bogey and JBJ

Plus whatever these guys or their replacements make: HanRam, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Thornburg

Plus Pedey still maing $12-13M and arbs for Wright, Vaz, Leon, Beni, Swihart etc...

 

[moonslav59]

These may be our Glory Days... our haydays... for a while, but I'm all for riding this horse until he drops, and if we become relegated to becoming the Yankees of 2016 in 2022 then so be it. But as long as JH owns this team I believe we'll respond just like the Y's are now.

 

I'm 100% on board, even with the Espi trade still bothering me. I lived the "bridesmaid" years, and I used to sall all the time, "I'll take 10 last place finishes for JUST ONE RING!!!!!". I've since adjusted that attitude, as you are right, we've all become a bit spoiled by our decade of success.

 

As I've said, I'm happy with the choice not to play it half way. I'm just not going to sugar coat the difficulties this team will have in 4-7 years due to the push to win in this 2-3 year window.

[moonslav59]

To accuse a Red Sox fan of 50 years who didn't see a Championship until age 45 of engaging in instant gratification is just preposterous. Let's just say that DD will have a challenge to restock the farm, but we don't know how these moves will affect the future and whether the future is on a downward trajectory, there is no certainty in that regard, because we don't know what DD will do to restock the farm. There is a challenge for him in this regard, but he has time. What we do know for certain is that the 2017 team is stocked with talent which we will be able to enjoy in about 3 months. That is not instant gratification. It is just the present.

 

We're arguing semantics. You say tomato; I say tomahto.

 

I've been a fan since the very early 70's. I suffered with you and others.

 

I'm on board with the win in this 3 year window plan. I'm fine with winning "now" at the likely expense of the future. You're right, we don't know what might happen. Every prospect we traded could suck. I get that. I'm glad you at least acknowledge it will be a "challenge" to restock the farm.

 

I'm sure we'll find a few gems, but it is going to be really hard to find guys like Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Moncada, Devers, Kopech, Groome, Margot, Espi, Guerra and more under the new system that works more and more against winners and big spenders.

[cp176]

We have lost some guys in our scouting and player development team, but who knows, maybe the new guys are better.

 

We may never be able to just purchase a guy like Moncada again. The international market has been very kind to us recently sans Castillo.

 

Bogaerts, Tazawa, Doubront (traded), Moncada (traded), Devers, Iggy (traded), F Montas (traded), J Aro (traded), J Diaz (traded), W Rijo (traded), J Almonte (traded) and many more from longer ago...like HanRam.

 

I'm not saying we will be a last place team in 4-7 years, but it's not going to be easy to win, if we have a roster with salaries like this in 2020-2021:

 

$30M+: Price, Sale & Betts

$20-30M: Porcello, Bogey and JBJ

Plus whatever these guys or their replacements make: HanRam, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Thornburg

Plus Pedey still maing $12-13M and arbs for Wright, Vaz, Leon, Beni, Swihart etc...

 

 

I get the fact that you are fine with things and the way they appear to be set at least for now. The Red Sox have drafted poorly on occasion with respect to higher draft choices and subsequently they have struck it rich on the other end of the spectrum on occasion. Of course some people have left our organization. You know very well that is just the general nature of things. Any comparison to this franchise and the way the Yankees have done business in the past doesn't fly with me. Since my Mom first put a Sox hat on my head in 1955, I have anxiously looked forward to the next season. Not once in my lifetime have I had a better feeling about a team going forward than I do this one. With respect to the future of this franchise 5 to 10 years from now, we definitely disagree. There is so much more to just be positive about that we have ever seen. If big George was alive and still the owner of the Yankees, do you think that they would have seen this type of decline? Even with aging veterans, I doubt it very much. He would find a way. We have been given no reason to think that under the current ownership things will be any different for us. They have proven that they want to win yesterday, today, and tomorrow. I will also add that it is never easy to win. It is conceivable that you could have the best system in the league and still not win.

[moonslav59]

Not once in my lifetime have I had a better feeling about a team going forward than I do this one.

 

I agree. Even after 2004, I didn't feel as strongly about "next year's team" than I do now.

 

With respect to the future of this franchise 5 to 10 years from now, we definitely disagree.

 

I'm talking more about 4-6 or 4-7 years not 8-10 years out. To have prospects ready by then other than Devers, Travis and Groome, we're going to have to do well very quickly with our draft and international signings.

 

I'm just saying it will be very difficult but not impossible. Just getting more consistent with our drafts might help. We tend to have fantastic drafts here and there with near total misses in between. What concerns me about the draft is that our best ones usually cam as a result of extra high picks due to comp picks gained from departing free agents. The system has changed since those days. We may gain a pick from HanRam without having to spend large to replace him, but anyone else worthy of a QO is going to leave a big hole to fill.

 

Here's a look at our best drafts:

 

2005: We got 6 picks by losing these three guys:

O Cab- Ellsbury & Lowrie

D Lowe- Hansen & Bowden

Pedro- Buchholz & Egan

 

None of our own picks amounted to anything.

 

Then we had low picks and near total waste drafts in 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009 (Masterson, Rizzo & Vazquez). That's a long stretch that I'm afraid we might see again over the next 3-4 years.

 

The 2010 draft saw us get 4 comp picks for losing...

B Wagner: K Vitek & A Ranaudo

J Bay: Brentz & Workman

But, I'd still call that draft a bust. We probably can't expect 4 picks like that again, and there's still a risk of failure, even if we got one!

 

So, basically from 2006 to 2010, our drafts were largely duds. That's what winning can do to you. We stayed competitive largely by free agency and international free spending.\

 

2011 draft: we got 4 comp picks for losing...

VMart: Barnes & Owens

Beltre: JBJ & Swihart

We also drafted Betts with the 172nd pick!

GREAT draft after 6 years of near futility!

 

2012: dud

2013: dud

2014: Kopech with pick #33

2015: Beni with pick #7.

2016: Groome with the #12 pick.

 

So, one great draft since 2004 and two of our best recent picks coming at #7 and 12. Yes, we got Betts and Kopech with lower picks, and we can hope for more of them, but our record with lower picks is not something to be proud of.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

We have been given no reason to think that under the current ownership things will be any different for us.

 

You mean like 3 last place finishes out of 4 years that helped us rebuild our farm to the point were we could trade much of it away to get to this great roster we have now?

 

There is a chance and a precedent of having a low period in between championship seasons.

 

We don't trade Margot, if we don't have Beni.

 

We might not trade Espi or Kopech without Groome.

 

We don't even have all these players to trade away with out higher draft picks and being able to spend on Moncada, Devers and other international studs.

 

[moonslav59]

If big George was alive and still the owner of the Yankees, do you think that they would have seen this type of decline?

 

Hard to say. They had just gone 8 years between rings and had some mega contracts starting to stink up the place before his death.

 

4 straight years under 88 wins probably would not have happened, but it would have taken more spending to make it happen- something Henry has not yet shown he's willing to do. We've never gone too far over the luxury tax limit. It could happen in 4-7 years, and it might have to to keep all our current talent on board, but without a lot of low paid top young talent helping the roster out, it's going to be very difficult.

[Spudboy]

Isnt there some level of pressure that the kids have anyway to just get to MLB? Which is probably a lot. ALL of them have the same pressure, whether from fans, management, and most of all themselves.

I was high on Kopech the most. Saw him as our "Noah Syndergaard" in a couple years. We have a nice 3 year window to draft, trade, and overall just stock the farm. No reason we cant go for a couple collage pitchers the first few rounds to have a couple guys closer to the show. I agree that losing him hurts a bit. Kopech more than Moncada for me.

DDs moves will become the right ones if his team can draft and develop over the next three years. The good thing is we have some time to stock the syatem again and the financial ability to make other moves.

The fact that we have a LOT of $$ coming off the books the next 3 years means we can restock the farm, sign some young players that will be up for FA and keep the flow and balance of prospect/FA/trades going.

 

Now this is a sensible post! I did not say it any better myself!

[moonslav59]

The fact that we have a LOT of $$ coming off the books the next 3 years means we can restock the farm, sign some young players that will be up for FA and keep the flow and balance of prospect/FA/trades going.

 

Next winter looks good. We lose about $26 (13.5 Buch, 6.5 Young & 5.5 Moreland), but arb raises will eat into a good chunk of that.

 

Arb year out of total arb years:

Pomeranz 3 of 3

Kelly 3 of 3

Ross 3 of 3

Bogey 2 of 3

Thornburg 2 of 3

Holt 2 of 3

Rutledge 2 of 3

JBJ 2 of 4

Leon 2 of 4

Betts 1 of 3

Smith, Wright, Vazquez and Barnes 1 of 3

ERod & Swihart 1 of 4

 

Plus, Sale's option raises his luxury tax budget cost by nearly $6M and Kimbrel's option raises his luxury budget cost by $2.5M. That's over about a third of the $26M right there alone.

 

Maybe the whole $26M will be gobbled up by these raises.

 

[moonslav59]

While the Phillies have over $5M in international bonus pool money, the Sox would have had only $2.8M.

 

Here's a link that discusses the penalties for overspending:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-releases-2016-17-international-bonus-pools.html

 

"...Red Sox are set to finish out their own pair of signing seasons on the sidelines, but will be able to re-enter the market fully for 2017-18."

 

_______________________________________________

 

Here's the link on draft slot allocations:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-releases-2016-draft-bonus-slots.html

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The Astros are looking for a SP'er and appear to be okay with raising their payroll (finally).

 

How about a three team trade?

 

To HOU: Buchholz and $3M

 

To BOS: Y Ventura

 

To KC: choose 2 from BOS: Owens, Johnson, Hernandez, Ockimey,Chavis or TBall

a prospect or 2 from HOU

 

[S5Dewey]

 

"...Red Sox are set to finish out their own pair of signing seasons on the sidelines, but will be able to re-enter the market fully for 2017-18."

 

_______________________________________________

 

Here's the link on draft slot allocations:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-releases-2016-draft-bonus-slots.html

 

 

That's good news. We're back in action Internationally next year! Thanks for the update.

[moonslav59]

That's good news. We're back in action Internationally next year! Thanks for the update.

 

With more serious restrictions though.

[cp176]

We have been given no reason to think that under the current ownership things will be any different for us.

 

You mean like 3 last place finishes out of 4 years that helped us rebuild our farm to the point were we could trade much of it away to get to this great roster we have now?

 

There is a chance and a precedent of having a low period in between championship seasons.

 

We don't trade Margot, if we don't have Beni.

 

We might not trade Espi or Kopech without Groome.

 

We don't even have all these players to trade away with out higher draft picks and being able to spend on Moncada, Devers and other international studs.

 

 

You are killing me with the data here. My hats off to you. You are a research guru. Of course you aren't changing my mind but I bet you already knew that. DD's decision to not listen to trade partners when they brought up Devers name tells me something. As much as I like Moncada, finding a place for him to fit would not have been that easy. Much not all but much of this top of the line talent that has been recently traded was blocked by legit ml talent. Having a backlog of talent isn't a bad thing of course but I think there are others ways to look at it in terms of value. My approach is somewhat simple - I get that and I'm ok with it. If I worried as much about tomorrow as some people seem to, honestly, I don't think that I would enjoy today nearly as much. It's kind of like having a ton of unused $ sitting around and not being used. You get to pat yourself on the back and say you are rich but in reality until it is being used it isn't doing you much good. Being prepared and saving for the future is a good thing but without a little risk taking along the way - yawn. I'll say again - although I have 0 data to support - as long as our current ownership remains in place, I absolutely believe this team will compete at a high level - 5, 10, or 15 years down the trail.

[southpaw777]

The fact that we have a LOT of $$ coming off the books the next 3 years means we can restock the farm, sign some young players that will be up for FA and keep the flow and balance of prospect/FA/trades going.

 

Next winter looks good. We lose about $26 (13.5 Buch, 6.5 Young & 5.5 Moreland), but arb raises will eat into a good chunk of that.

 

Arb year out of total arb years:

Pomeranz 3 of 3

Kelly 3 of 3

Ross 3 of 3

Bogey 2 of 3

Thornburg 2 of 3

Holt 2 of 3

Rutledge 2 of 3

JBJ 2 of 4

Leon 2 of 4

Betts 1 of 3

Smith, Wright, Vazquez and Barnes 1 of 3

ERod & Swihart 1 of 4

 

Plus, Sale's option raises his luxury tax budget cost by nearly $6M and Kimbrel's option raises his luxury budget cost by $2.5M. That's over about a third of the $26M right there alone.

 

Maybe the whole $26M will be gobbled up by these raises.

 

 

18 and 19 are the big years to lose $$ off the payroll. There will be plenty to sign our young players. Why didnt you list those years since I said over the next three? As it stands right now, They should be around 100m owed at the end of 2019, which leaves about 100m for arbs and to sign FA and our own kids.

The future is really not as bad as you think it may be. Only if DD doesnt draft and develop, as well as make some smart trades. And honestly...there are guys like Mookie Betts in round 5 and Jon Lesters/Dustin Pedroias in round 2...i trust DD has a team of smart educatd scouts and stats guys hard at work looking for the next future Sox stars. To say it wont be easy is obvious. Its not easy to pick a young kid and predict his future, no matter if hes the #1 pick or #100...

[moonslav59]

You are killing me with the data here. My hats off to you. You are a research guru. Of course you aren't changing my mind but I bet you already knew that. DD's decision to not listen to trade partners when they brought up Devers name tells me something.

 

I feel the same way. I think that Devers' big step up on defense this year sealed the Moncada deal. I love Devers. I wish we could have talked the CWS into taking Swihart, Hernandez & Owens instead of Kopech, but that's likely dreaming.

 

As much as I like Moncada, finding a place for him to fit would not have been that easy.

 

My biggest concern with Moncada has always been his defense and lack of a defined role in MLB other than hitting lights out.

 

Much not all but much of this top of the line talent that has been recently traded was blocked by legit ml talent. Having a backlog of talent isn't a bad thing of course but I think there are others ways to look at it in terms of value. My approach is somewhat simple - I get that and I'm ok with it. If I worried as much about tomorrow as some people seem to, honestly, I don't think that I would enjoy today nearly as much. It's kind of like having a ton of unused $ sitting around and not being used. You get to pat yourself on the back and say you are rich but in reality until it is being used it isn't doing you much good. Being prepared and saving for the future is a good thing but without a little risk taking along the way - yawn. I'll say again - although I have 0 data to support - as long as our current ownership remains in place, I absolutely believe this team will compete at a high level - 5, 10, or 15 years down the trail.

 

As you know, I have never been against trading top talent. I have suggested dozens of trades with Moncada, Swihart, Basabe and others in my packages. I wanted us to try hard, and I'm sure DD did, to keep Espi, Devers & Kopech. I realize most of our positions are locked up for 2-4 years, so trading away the near ML ready talent made sense. My concern is with the 4-7 year range, and that's where the three guys I listed as keepers would have come into their own. We traded two of the three. If we had to trade Kopech to get Sale, I get it. As I have said, I love the Sale deal. I do wish we had the Espi deal back, especially in light of the Sale deal and talk of using Pom in the pen now.

 

I think we will be competitive from 4 to 7 years out, but not "highly competitive, unless Henry changes his M.O. or we find the Rizzos and Betts in the lower picks a few times in the next draft or two. As I have shown before with out draft successes, they almost always involved years with multiple comp picks or top 15 draft choices. I'm not saying we can't draft better with lower picks than we have done in the past, but we will have to improve in this area, or we will have some trouble after year 4.

 

Here's another simplified way to look at it:

 

Our draft choices since 2005: (Only significant players listed)

 

Top 15:

12 Groome 16

7 Beni 15

7 T Ball 13

 

16-35:

26 Chavis. 33 Kopech 14

24 Marrero, 31 Johnson 12

28 R Fuentes 09

30 C Kelly 08

27 J Place 06

 

36+:

51 Chatham (118 Dalbec) 16

67 S Travis 14

37 P Light 12

172 Betts 11

77 Wilson 09

85 S Fife 08

6th Rd A Rizzo 07

2nd Rd Masterson 06

 

Comp Picks:

16-35:

19 Barnes, Swihart 11

20 Vitek 10

28 D Bard 06

23 Ellsbury, 26 Hansen 05

 

36+

36 Owens, 40 JBJ 11

36 Brentz, 39 Ranaudo, 57 Workman 10

42 Buchholz, 45 Lowrie, 47 Bowden 05

 

Look at our own picks from 16-35. There's not a single player that amounted to squat in the last 12 freakin drafts!!!! Kopech shows promise, but that's it! That is mind-boggling and scary as hell.

 

When you look at all the later picks combined over 12 years, I see Betts and Rizzo as the only 2 solid stars. That's 1 every 6 years! That's not too hopefull either.

 

The vast majority of our in-system studs have come from comp picks and international signings. Both of those areas have become much more difficult for us to do well in due to rule changes.

 

If we continue our pattern of acquiring young talent without top 15 picks or comp picks or $60M international players like Moncada, we're going to be suffering in 4 years and maybe much longer.

 

Take away our top 15 picks (Beni & Groome), our comp picks (JBJ, Swihart, Barnes, Ellsbury & Buchholz) and big ticket international signings (Moncada & maybe Devers & Espi) and where would we be (and have been)?

 

We wouldn't even have had the prospects to trade away.

 

Look, I'm not doom and gloom. I'm super psyched about this team and its future. I think we can and will remain competitive beyond 4 years, but it's going to take some major changes in the way we have been drafting players and signing international players. We can't continue going 12 years with just a Michael Kopech to show for all of our 16-35 draft picks.

[notin]

The Astros are looking for a SP'er and appear to be okay with raising their payroll (finally).

 

How about a three team trade?

 

To HOU: Buchholz and $3M

 

To BOS: Y Ventura

 

To KC: choose 2 from BOS: Owens, Johnson, Hernandez, Ockimey,Chavis or TBall

a prospect or 2 from HOU

 

 

Prospects aren't worth what they used to be in trades. Three years of Yordano Ventura isn't likely to be cheaper in trade than 3 years of Tyler Thornburg, who netted a major leaguer and a prospect ranked ahead of nearly every name on that list. And the Astros of all teams are well aware of the cost of young, cheap, controllable closer, having surrendered 5 players (including MLB-ready pitchers Vince Velasquez and Brett Oberholtzer) for Ken Giles one year ago yesterday...

[moonslav59]

18 and 19 are the big years to lose $$ off the payroll. There will be plenty to sign our young players. Why didnt you list those years since I said over the next three? As it stands right now, They should be around 100m owed at the end of 2019, which leaves about 100m for arbs and to sign FA and our own kids.

The future is really not as bad as you think it may be. Only if DD doesnt draft and develop, as well as make some smart trades. And honestly...there are guys like Mookie Betts in round 5 and Jon Lesters/Dustin Pedroias in round 2...i trust DD has a team of smart educatd scouts and stats guys hard at work looking for the next future Sox stars. To say it wont be easy is obvious. Its not easy to pick a young kid and predict his future, no matter if hes the #1 pick or #100...

 

I did on another post somewhere- maybe on another thread.

 

We don't lose a lot after 2018, and the ones we do lose are important players that will likely have to be replaced in kind.

2018:

$13M Kimbrel

~$9M (last arb) Pomeranz

~$4M (last arb) Kelly

~$3M (last arb) Ross

That might total $30M, but look what top closers are making now. Plus, now we have more arb raises:

Bogey 3 of 3 --could cost a ton of money

Thornburg 3 of 3-- another costly arb

Holt 3 of 3

Rutledge 3 of 3

JBJ 3 of 4 --more cost

Leon 3 of 4

Betts 2 of 3--more high cost

Smith, Wright, Vazquez and Barnes 2 of 3 --some cost here too

ERod & Swihart 2 of 4

 

My guess is, after arb raises, the $30M will just about be gone. That means Thornburg will have to be our closer, and we'll have to backfill the pen from within the system. Certainly, we will not be able to sign a big name FA without going way over the limit. I'm not saying we won't, but somewhere in here, we'll have to reset the luxury tax to avoid huge future costs.

 

After 2019, we'll have a lot of money, but some big talent to extend or replace in kind.

Porcello

Bogey

HanRam

Thornburg

Pablo ($5M buyout)

Holt

Rutledge

These arb raises:

JBJ 3 of 4

Leon 3 of 4

Betts 2 of 3

Smith, Wright, Vazquez and Barnes 2 of 3

ERod & Swihart 2 of 4