A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[raider_35_24]

New Rankings for the remaining Sox prospects on soxprospects.com:

 

http://soxprospects.com/index.html

 

1 Benintendi- no surprise

2 Devers- on the rise

3 Groome- only 18

4 Travis- ML ready once re-habbed

5 Dalbec- leap frogged Johnson & Hernandez

6 Johnson

7 Hernandez

8 Chatham

9 Ockimey

10 Raudes- leap frogged Chavis & Longhi

 

11 Chavis, 12 Lomghi, 13 Shawaryn, 14 Ysla, 15 Martin, 16 TBall, 17 Lakins, 18 Cosart, 19 B Mata, 20 Shepherd, 21 Bautista

 

Other fast risers:

Stephen Nogosek 35>25

Robby Scott 50>29

Austin Glorius 45>34

Tyler Hill 47>35

 

 

robby scott did a nice job for us last year...i like nogosek also...dalbec has some power also...if you take a look we still have some nice prospects.

[raider_35_24]

here's another prospects watch....http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=bos

[moonslav59]

here's another prospects watch....http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=bos

 

THe top is pretty close, but some major differences the lower you get (as expected).

 

The first big difference is Dalbec #16 not#5.

Others...

Lakins at #8 to #17

TBall 10 not 15.

Marrero still at 15, while soxprospects has him at 38.

Jerex at 19 not 32 and Brakeman at 21 not 40.

 

 

[raider_35_24]

THe top is pretty close, but some major differences the lower you get (as expected).

 

The first big difference is Dalbec #16 not#5.

Others...

Lakins at #8 to #17

TBall 10 not 15.

Marrero still at 15, while soxprospects has him at 38.

Jerex at 19 not 32 and Brakeman at 21 not 40.

 

 

 

click on the pictures...some good info.

[jacksonianmarch]

Right now, you guys can have a f*** it approach to your farm. You've got a young, probably dominant big league team with depth in your rotation and pen. Your OF is dominant 1-3 with a great platoon guy fourth. You have an infield with a 30 HR 1b, a former MVP 2B, a future $25 mil a year player at SS and a wild card at third with a former All Star backing them all up in Holt. Catcher is the only weak link, although a top prospect could reclaim the spot. Right now, you have proven production and redundancy. Unless Ebola circulates your clubhouse, the only thing you'll need your farm to do is be ready for a deadline deal as most of those guys won't have an opening to slot into. This is a juggernaut, and when you have a juggernaut, you don't have to worry about a farm in terms of future big league performance. You look at them as to how can they deliver a return that helps you now

[oldtimer]

New Rankings for the remaining Sox prospects on soxprospects.com:

 

http://soxprospects.com/index.html

 

1 Benintendi- no surprise

2 Devers- on the rise

3 Groome- only 18

4 Travis- ML ready once re-habbed

5 Dalbec- leap frogged Johnson & Hernandez

6 Johnson

7 Hernandez

8 Chatham

9 Ockimey

10 Raudes- leap frogged Chavis & Longhi

 

11 Chavis, 12 Lomghi, 13 Shawaryn, 14 Ysla, 15 Martin, 16 TBall, 17 Lakins, 18 Cosart, 19 B Mata, 20 Shepherd, 21 Bautista

 

Other fast risers:

Stephen Nogosek 35>25

Robby Scott 50>29

Austin Glorius 45>34

Tyler Hill 47>35

 

 

It is hard for me to become excited by our prospects, I count Benintendi as a ML player now. Devers or Travis would have been packaged in the deal had the White Sox wanted them instead of Moncada or Kopech never mind Basabe. We have a solid team going into the season and I hope Sale doesn't get injured and Sandoval can return to ML form. I also hope that Smith can return and make an impact in the BP.

[Nick]

Right now, you guys can have a f*** it approach to your farm. You've got a young, probably dominant big league team with depth in your rotation and pen. Your OF is dominant 1-3 with a great platoon guy fourth. You have an infield with a 30 HR 1b, a former MVP 2B, a future $25 mil a year player at SS and a wild card at third with a former All Star backing them all up in Holt. Catcher is the only weak link, although a top prospect could reclaim the spot. Right now, you have proven production and redundancy. Unless Ebola circulates your clubhouse, the only thing you'll need your farm to do is be ready for a deadline deal as most of those guys won't have an opening to slot into. This is a juggernaut, and when you have a juggernaut, you don't have to worry about a farm in terms of future big league performance. You look at them as to how can they deliver a return that helps you now

 

I'm having whatever he's having....well said. Some of our posters should go cheer for someone else's farm teams. I'd suggest Iowa, Tennessee, Myrtle Beach and South Bend teams.

[Kimmi]

Right now, you guys can have a f*** it approach to your farm. You've got a young, probably dominant big league team with depth in your rotation and pen. Your OF is dominant 1-3 with a great platoon guy fourth. You have an infield with a 30 HR 1b, a former MVP 2B, a future $25 mil a year player at SS and a wild card at third with a former All Star backing them all up in Holt. Catcher is the only weak link, although a top prospect could reclaim the spot. Right now, you have proven production and redundancy. Unless Ebola circulates your clubhouse, the only thing you'll need your farm to do is be ready for a deadline deal as most of those guys won't have an opening to slot into. This is a juggernaut, and when you have a juggernaut, you don't have to worry about a farm in terms of future big league performance. You look at them as to how can they deliver a return that helps you now

 

Sorry, but that is flat out wrong. There is never a good time to say to heck with the farm system. Never.

 

If there ever was a good time, it would be now. But there isn't.

[Kimmi]

I'm having whatever he's having....well said. Some of our posters should go cheer for someone else's farm teams. I'd suggest Iowa, Tennessee, Myrtle Beach and South Bend teams.

 

Why should we do that?

 

I don't care about other team's farm systems.

 

I do care about the Red Sox farm system, and I don't like the direction it's heading.

[Spudboy]

Sorry, but that is flat out wrong. There is never a good time to say to heck with the farm system. Never.

 

If there ever was a good time, it would be now. But there isn't.

 

And what makes you so certain that it is wrong? Are you now an expert?

 

If someone says to me that 2 plus 2 equals 5 I would suspect that they are f***ed in the head. I would say that Kimmi told me that 2 plus 2 equals 4 and she teaches math so I'm going with her on this.

 

You just read a bunch of stuff written by others and adopt their opinion. They may be correct or they may be wrong.

 

The same goes for you and your opinions and everyone else on this board.

[jacksonianmarch]

What I meant was, as a juggernaut, you don't have to rely on your farm to replace your departing players. You can now use your farm to get a now need

[Kimmi]

And what makes you so certain that it is wrong? Are you now an expert?

 

If someone says to me that 2 plus 2 equals 5 I would suspect that they are f***ed in the head. I would say that Kimmi told me that 2 plus 2 equals 4 and she teaches math so I'm going with her on this.

 

You just read a bunch of stuff written by others and adopt their opinion. They may be correct or they may be wrong.

 

The same goes for you and your opinions and everyone else on this board.

 

Well, according to you, I am an expert. You have referred to me as such in many posts.

 

I read a bunch of stuff, but I do not blindly adopt anyone's opinion. I form my own opinions based on many factors.

 

It is only my opinion, but you're not going to convince me that it's okay not to worry about the farm, not matter how good a chance it gives us to win this year.

 

FTR, it is possible for 2 + 2 = 5.

[Nick]

Lets get serious.

 

You buy the Red Sox. How would you build a team? Think outside of box a bit.

 

Presumably you paid about $3B for the team in 2017. Now unless you're shiek with constant oil revenue flowing in, let's assume you have to show a profit. You can't simply transfer oil money to baseball and spend $300M on 40 man roster.

 

1) strictly through the farm system. You live with it. You also trade out one or two years out of of team control players for fresh meat. You do several 1 for 2 or 1 for 3 type of deals to replenish the farm system. Absolutely no FA signings over $2-3M per year. Now you become the Rays. You are still making good profit but eventually TV/gate revenue will go down unless somehow you're winning on the field because your baseball people are simply better than 29 other teams in drafting and developing. It's doable but unrealistic.

 

2) DOES ANYONE HERE KNOW WHAT THE COST OF TOTAL MINOR LEAGUE OPERATION IS FOR A CLUB SUCH AS RED SOX. WHAT ABOUT INTERNATIONAL OPERATION? what if we go to the other extreme? Nothing but free agents on the 25 man roster.

 

Maybe the major league rule prohibits it. But what if we trim Sox non major league operation to bear minimum? Will there be an annual savings of say $25M? Or is it more? I'm talking about players, scouts, operations staff and non baseball staff members dealing with non major league matters. What I'm getting at is can you build a team with strictly free agents? I'm not talking about everyone making $5M+ salaries. Many would make close to league minimum. How can we not field a competitive team with annual spending of luxury tax limit plus $25M or whatever the savings amount to? Will this team be competitive enough to keep up the top line? (ie gate, TV and other revenues).

 

Obviously you go somewhere in between.

 

I like the approach of building a team internally. Then you add pieces through trades and free agents. I THINK THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT DD IS DOING, ALBEIT HE CAME IN LATE IN THE PROCESS AND HE'S THE ONE THAT'S ADDING PIECES THROUGH TRADES AND SIGNING FREE AGENTS FOR THE FINAL WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP PUSH. BEN AND THEO STARTED. (I will give that to Kimmi, unbegrudgingly.)

 

Sox Nation had the sweet taste of winning it all, three times and now we all crave for the 4th. I believe that's what Henry and the whole gang is aiming for. They can feel it. They're close. If we can win one over the next three years, then its been worth it from their perspective. They obviously are bit more optimistic about restocking the farm, knowing they have a bit longer to do it because of several team controlled talent currently on Sox major league roster.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

What I meant was, as a juggernaut, you don't have to rely on your farm to replace your departing players. You can now use your farm to get a now need

 

In 3 or 4 years, then what?

 

This is the exact mentality that got your Yankees where they were last year and this.

[moonslav59]

Obviously you go somewhere in between.

 

 

DD traded this:

 

Mid-season Baseball America Rankings:

#1 Moncada

#15 Espinosa

#39 Margot

#87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade)

#93 Kopech

 

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21. Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

27. Josh Pennington

30. Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

And kept this:

Devers

Groome

Travis

 

I don't see that as somewhere in between. I suppose in theory it is, but it's way to one side of the spectrum.

 

This isn't a keeper fantasy team. It's not the good old days before free agency, when players were locked into their team for life, unless traded or cut. If it was, we'd have an excellent present & future as nobody is older than 33 on our roster, and much of our best talent is still pre-prime or early prime.

 

Unless Henry is going to open the wallet and let"money flow in", there is a strong possibility, not a certainty, but a very strong chance this team will be suffering for the choices made by DD this past 13 months once we get to year 4 to 8 or even 9 & 10, if Espi and other very young prospects dealt away do very well.

 

Again, I'm fine with what was done (sans Espi), but I see what we did and know we will have to pay for our excesses at some point down the road. There are consequences to everything we do.

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Sale’s former pitching coach with the White Sox, Don Cooper, told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, “He knows himself really good. His delivery is solid.” Cooper added, “Chris Sale has three above-average major league pitches that he pours in and throws strikes. I don’t want to sound cocky, but I don’t think anyone saying stuff has a better idea about his delivery than me.” Cooper then lavished further praise on the 27-year-old Sale, who he thinks landed with the right club. “He’s put up Hall of Fame-credible numbers. And now he’s going to a team that is sparing no expense,” said Cooper. “Nothing stands in the way of them putting together the best team. He’s going to a team where he has a chance to put up even more wins. If he has 10 years like he’s had, he has a chance to have a Hall of Fame career.”

 

Full article

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/17/nick-cafardo-why-chris-sale-delivery-works-for-him/j5slTzAgR7miJUAsQoAgHM/story.html

Edited December 18, 2016 by moonslav59

[raider_35_24]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/12/mastrodonato_well_stocked_red_sox_have_promising_three_year_window

[raider_35_24]

MLBTR...

 

Sale’s former pitching coach with the White Sox, Don Cooper, told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, “He knows himself really good. His delivery is solid.” Cooper added, “Chris Sale has three above-average major league pitches that he pours in and throws strikes. I don’t want to sound cocky, but I don’t think anyone saying stuff has a better idea about his delivery than me.” Cooper then lavished further praise on the 27-year-old Sale, who he thinks landed with the right club. “He’s put up Hall of Fame-credible numbers. And now he’s going to a team that is sparing no expense,” said Cooper. “Nothing stands in the way of them putting together the best team. He’s going to a team where he has a chance to put up even more wins. If he has 10 years like he’s had, he has a chance to have a Hall of Fame career.”

 

i'm still so pumped....WE GOT FUK'N CHRIS SALE!

[moonslav59]

i'm still so pumped....WE GOT FUK'N CHRIS SALE!

 

Me too!

 

For over 45 years I have suggested trades like this.

 

My dream came true!

[Nick]

Me too!

 

For over 45 years I have suggested trades like this.

 

My dream came true!

 

But you just said we gutted our future for Sale.....and we'll pay for it 8 years from now.....my head is spinning Moon....

[moonslav59]

But you just said we gutted our future for Sale.....and we'll pay for it 8 years from now.....my head is spinning Moon....

 

I am happy we are set up to win, but I don't deny our future will suffer for it.

 

I don't see a contradiction.

 

We have also made several other trades besides the Sale one.

 

I was strongly against the Kimbrel trade, but have softened my stance a little once top RP'er contracts ballooned to extreme numbers.

 

I still hate the Espi-Pom trade. I disliked the Hill trade from day one, but it wasn't a big deal.

 

Overall, I like what we've done, but if I could undo some deals, I'd take back the three trades I mentioned or at least the Pom & Hill trades. Our extended future would look better, and we'd still be strong contenders for the next 3 years... a little more balance.

 

[Hugh2]

We finally got our Binky. There was always that guy people wanted in the team but it just didn't seem realistic. King Felix, Stanton, but we actually got Sale....it happened.

[Hugh2]

But you just said we gutted our future for Sale.....and we'll pay for it 8 years from now.....my head is spinning Moon....

 

You can be against gutting the farm but like a trade. Some of us are at the very least curious about the farm going forward when you weigh the totality of all trades. A trade can stand alone. We can like the team to focus on building within, but appreciate the need to pull the trigger on an opportunity to bring in top notch talent. We don't have to be homers and just automatically like every trade. We reserve the right to like some and hate other trades.

[moonslav59]

You can be against gutting the farm but like a trade. Some of us are at the very least curious about the farm going forward when you weigh the totality of all trades. A trade can stand alone. We can like the team to focus on building within, but appreciate the need to pull the trigger on an opportunity to bring in top notch talent. We don't have to be homers and just automatically like every trade. We reserve the right to like some and hate other trades.

 

I'm thinking that even DD would have taken back the Espi trade, if he knew he was going to get Sale.

 

We'd be under the luxury limit and could keep Buch.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm thinking that even DD would have taken back the Espi trade, if he knew he was going to get Sale.

 

We'd be under the luxury limit and could keep Buch.

 

I don't see how knowing he would get Sale the following offseason would change his outlook on us desperately needing a starter last July.

[Hugh2]

I don't see how knowing he would get Sale the following offseason would change his outlook on us desperately needing a starter last July.

 

And people make dumb decisions when they are desperate

[moonslav59]

I don't see how knowing he would get Sale the following offseason would change his outlook on us desperately needing a starter last July.

 

It's impossible to know, but when given the chance to cancel the trade, knowing Pom has an injury, I think he kept the deal intact, because of Pom's 2 more years of control- not so much for 2016.

 

Hard to know. The whole situation was a mess. How could we cancel the trade when our second or third options were no longer available. For that reasonb, maybe DD still would keep the deal, but it's certainly more questionable under my hypothetical scenario.

 

Too bas the CWS wouldn't make the same Sale deal they did make back in July.

[cp176]

And people make dumb decisions when they are desperate

 

Your opinion obviously is that he made a dumb decision. You might not agree and you might be able to give a ton of reasons to support your opinion but it still doesn't mean that it was a dumb decision.

[cp176]

You can be against gutting the farm but like a trade. Some of us are at the very least curious about the farm going forward when you weigh the totality of all trades. A trade can stand alone. We can like the team to focus on building within, but appreciate the need to pull the trigger on an opportunity to bring in top notch talent. We don't have to be homers and just automatically like every trade. We reserve the right to like some and hate other trades.

 

I think that this is a good post. i just think that the idea of gutting something means a lot more to me than it does to the people who use the word. A healthy number of good prospects were traded. That is for sure but they will still field teams this summer at all minor league stadiums. There are still some pretty talented players kicking around. Some of them might even surprise us all.

[Hugh2]

Your opinion obviously is that he made a dumb decision. You might not agree and you might be able to give a ton of reasons to support your opinion but it still doesn't mean that it was a dumb decision.

 

Ok, fair enough but I do think that.