A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

if the Sale deal delivers a title to Boston, then it doesn't matter if Moncada becomes a perennial MVP candidate. There is a good chance The CWS package delivers more WAR than Sale will in a six uniform. But if a pennant gets raised on the back of Chris Sale, then nobody will care

 

I agree with this. I've said that if we win a World Series in the next 3 years than it will all be worth it, even if both Moncada and Kopech go on to be perennial All Stars.

[Kimmi]

People need to get over the fact that the prospect package could return more value to Chicago. Of course it does!!!! That's how trades work.

You would not invest $10 in the stock market to MAYBE get $10 back in the future. There is an element of risk, so potential future value must be higher to make a trade even.

 

 

Even if you knew with 100% certainty Sale would give you 20 WAR and Moncada would give 30 WAR (money aside) even then that WAR today is worth more, think of the same concept as TVM.

 

Still, despite all that, I hated the Pom Pom trade and always will. But the Kimbrel, Sale trades are justifiable and make sense. I think I like the Thornburg trade too.

 

I have no problem with any single move by itself.

 

I have a problem with the change in organizational philosophy that Dombrowski has brought.

[Bellhorn04]

I said the same thing last offseason after we got Price and Kimbrel. Dombrowski overpaid the next higher offer for Price by $30 million. Geez, I can do that.

 

But by the same token, Theo only got Lester because he bumped our offer by 20 million. Most people said Theo overpaid for Lester. Anybody (with the money behind them) could do that too.

 

It's not really the individual moves that determine a GM's success. It's the total package that he puts together.

[moonslav59]

I agree with this analysis. This was pretty much Dave Cameron's point too: the Red Sox gave up too much for Sale--Cameron wouldn't have made the trade.

 

Dombrowski is making the media rounds going over how the two deals came together as if he has some special talent for such things. What a joke. In both cases, the deals were completed because Dombrowski overpaid. He did the same thing for Kimbrel. Anyone can make deals like this if you want to completely unload and decimate your farm system, which is what Dombrowski has done. If he didn't inherit a top farm system, Sale would still be on the White Sox. We kept hearing that Dombrowski is very shrewd when it comes to making deals, but I haven't seen evidence of it. In each trade, he is either getting fair value back or he is overpaying. What is so shrewd about that?

 

Trading nothing for A.Chapman was a shrewd deal, the one Cashman made last offseason.

 

I agree that the overpays were too much, ad we probably could have have gotten all what we have gotten for far for less.

 

Even Price at $21M/7 less would have us comfortably under the luxury limit.

 

Keeping just Asuage and Allen in the Kimbrel deal would have kept our farm a little fuller.

 

Keeping Kopech and maybe adding Basabe and Shaw would have greatly improved our long term outlook.

 

Nix the Espi-Pom deal, and maybe we could have traded Espi, Swihart, Hernandez and Owens for Quintana or just kept these four.

 

I will say, I think we should win a ring in the next 2 years- maybe 3, and I'm glad we didn't play it half way, but there's a strong argument to be made that we played it all out the wrong way.

[Bellhorn04]

Us fans could always do things better than the real guys do them.

[Bellhorn04]

If you really want to blame someone for a shift in philosophy, there's only one man you should be blaming and that's JH himself. He's the one who replaced BC with DD, and you can bet DD is doing exactly what JH expected him to do.

[S5Dewey]

Us fans could always do things better than the real guys do them.

 

Exactly true. When I think about second guessing trades that were made I try to keep in mind that I have no knowledge of what went into the trade. Who was offered and who was turned down in the back-and-forths and what the club's longer term plan is.

 

IMO it's also important to keep in mind that GM's play a tough game, especially when they know that they have the BEST player to fill another team's needs. For example, my understanding is that the Nats were balls-deep in the negotiations for Sale. MAYBE we could have gotten Sale and kept Kopech... or MAYBE we'd have lost him to the Nats if we'd insisted on keeping Kopech. One in the hand being worth two in the bush, I'm glad we've got Sale today and not the promise of Kopech in 3-4 years.

[Emp9]

Things could've been worse. DD could've made better moves, earlier, and we'd have traded for Jose Fernandez. Or is that the wrong way to look at things? I'm not really sure anymore.

[Bellhorn04]

Things could've been worse. DD could've made better moves, earlier, and we'd have traded for Jose Fernandez. Or is that the wrong way to look at things? I'm not really sure anymore.

 

You do sound confused LOL.

 

Jose Fernandez would be a sad example, I guess, of the role that blind luck plays in everything.

[S5Dewey]

Exactly true. When I think about second guessing trades that were made I try to keep in mind that I have no knowledge of what went into the trade. Who was offered and who was turned down in the back-and-forths and what the club's longer term plan is.

 

IMO it's also important to keep in mind that GM's play a tough game, especially when they know that they have the BEST player to fill another team's needs. For example, my understanding is that the Nats were balls-deep in the negotiations for Sale. MAYBE we could have gotten Sale and kept Kopech... or MAYBE we'd have lost him to the Nats if we'd insisted on keeping Kopech. One in the hand being worth two in the bush, I'm glad we've got Sale today and not the promise of Kopech in 3-4 years.

 

..and in replying to my own post ! ...

This is the attitude we should take with Buch. We have something someone is going to want - and want badly - when one of their pitchers goes down. We should hold out and make them overpay, which the right GM will do when he's desperate enough.

[Emp9]

You do sound confused LOL.

 

Jose Fernandez would be a sad example, I guess, of the role that blind luck plays in everything.

 

Not sure if speeding and crashing your boat into some rocks while high on cocaine and drunk is "blind luck", but...

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure if speeding and crashing your boat into some rocks while high on cocaine and drunk is "blind luck", but...

 

I meant blind luck for the team he plays for.

[moonslav59]

Exactly true. When I think about second guessing trades that were made I try to keep in mind that I have no knowledge of what went into the trade. Who was offered and who was turned down in the back-and-forths and what the club's longer term plan is.

 

IMO it's also important to keep in mind that GM's play a tough game, especially when they know that they have the BEST player to fill another team's needs. For example, my understanding is that the Nats were balls-deep in the negotiations for Sale. MAYBE we could have gotten Sale and kept Kopech... or MAYBE we'd have lost him to the Nats if we'd insisted on keeping Kopech. One in the hand being worth two in the bush, I'm glad we've got Sale today and not the promise of Kopech in 3-4 years.

 

One other aspect of this deal is that had we missed out on Sale, we might have gotten Quintana for Moncada, Swihart and Owens. Look at what the CWS wanted from the Astros for Quintna, and I think we could have beaten that without Kopech, Devers or Groome.

[Emp9]

I meant blind luck for the team he plays for.

 

Ok I gotcha. Yeah, just saying, things can always be worse. I try to look at the absolute worst & best case scenarios (not just in sports) to keep me balanced. Lol

[harmony]

..and in replying to my own post ! ...

This is the attitude we should take with Buch. We have something someone is going to want - and want badly - when one of their pitchers goes down. We should hold out and make them overpay, which the right GM will do when he's desperate enough.

Unless Clay Buchholz is the pitcher who goes down. It's happened.

[Nick]

I was dead set vs trading away Moncada and Kopech. We invested $60M on Moncada. Kopech was that kid that had a chance to break the stigma of not developing TORS internally.

 

Now there's a tremendous pressure on Groome and Devers to come through for the organization. At some point, one of these kids will have to show up as a star in mlb.

[notin]

I agree with this. I've said that if we win a World Series in the next 3 years than it will all be worth it, even if both Moncada and Kopech go on to be perennial All Stars.

 

The title is most important. The Sox threw Hall of Famers into LF for half a century and brought home zero titles with them....

[notin]

I was dead set vs trading away Moncada and Kopech. We invested $60M on Moncada. Kopech was that kid that had a chance to break the stigma of not developing TORS internally.

 

Now there's a tremendous pressure on Groome and Devers to come through for the organization. At some point, one of these kids will have to show up as a star in mlb.

 

Why?

 

Despite our gutted farm, the Sox will have still have minor leaguers. And they were ALWAYS in the position where some top prospects would get promoted, dealt or flop. Now we just know who is on that second list.

 

Besides if Moncada works out, we can sign him bsck in 7 years or so when Chicago can no longer afford him....

[moonslav59]

We have over $54M coming off the books in the next two years:

$13.5M Buch '17

$13M Kimbrel (option year '18)

$6.5M Young '17

$5.5M Moreland '17

last arb (estimate):

$8.5M Pomernaz '18

$4M Kelly '18

$3M Ross '18

 

We can fill some gaps with one or two year deals next winter and just one year deals after 2018, so the books will be cleaned up for after 2019.

 

Maybe Swihart, Devers and Hernandez can replace Young & Moreland (and eventually HanRam/Pablo).

Maybe Owens, Johnson, Scott, Martin & Ysla and the short term signings can partially replace Buch, Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross.

 

The real moment of truth comes after 2019 and 2020, but if we have this $54M freed up plus the small luxury tax increases, we might be close to $60M by the end of 2018. Of course, some hefty arb raises (Betts, JBJ and others) will eat up a big chunk, but a lot should be rolled over.

 

After 2019, we will have between $80-90M coming off the books, and not all should need to be replaced. Ramirez $22M, Porcello $22.6M, Pablo $19M, Sale $13M, Bogaerts (~$arb), Holt ($arb) and Rutledge ($arb), but we'll need to replace or extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey. Devers and Travis (Hernandez/Chatham/Longhi/Chavis/Ockimey) can replace Ramirez 1B/DH & Pablo 3B/1B. Maybe Groome could make an impact somehow by then, but we should be able to extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey with the $85M plus what's left over after arb raises fro the $60M rolled over from the previous 2 years. A lot of the depends on how we replaced Kimbrel, but we may have enough money left over to squeeze out a decent closer from free agency.

 

After 2020, too many variables are at stake. (Probably several variables will play intoi 2018 as well.) We'll have Betts and JBJ off their last arb year along with Wright, Leon, Vaz and C Smith. That's the time we'll be wishing we had a strong farm with ML talent available.

 

[moonslav59]

Why?

 

Despite our gutted farm, the Sox will have still have minor leaguers. And they were ALWAYS in the position where some top prospects would get promoted, dealt or flop. Now we just know who is on that second list.

 

Besides if Moncada works out, we can sign him bsck in 7 years or so when Chicago can no longer afford him....

 

The big problem is going to be from after 2020 to that 6th and 7th year, when Moncada and others come available.

[Nick]

What if we did not make the deal for Sale? Is it possible that we won anyway? We got a reliever to go along with Carson Smith returning. Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Ross are all year older. If healthy, our starting five should have been decent. We also signed a decent 1B for 1 year. Sale's contract is very enticing I'll admit.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm pretty excited for 2017. I really wanted our OF to stay in tact and got my wish.

 

Best scenario for me? win the next two world series and have Price opt out. Resign Sale and Porcello, Devers and Smith break in at corner infield spots and retain the killer B's. And it would be nice if Groome was ready for 2019 September call up.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

We have over $54M coming off the books in the next two years:

$13.5M Buch '17

$13M Kimbrel (option year '18)

$6.5M Young '17

$5.5M Moreland '17

last arb (estimate):

$8.5M Pomernaz '18

$4M Kelly '18

$3M Ross '18

 

We can fill some gaps with one or two year deals next winter and just one year deals after 2018, so the books will be cleaned up for after 2019.

 

Maybe Swihart, Devers and Hernandez can replace Young & Moreland (and eventually HanRam/Pablo).

Maybe Owens, Johnson, Scott, Martin & Ysla and the short term signings can partially replace Buch, Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross.

 

The real moment of truth comes after 2019 and 2020, but if we have this $54M freed up plus the small luxury tax increases, we might be close to $60M by the end of 2018. Of course, some hefty arb raises (Betts, JBJ and others) will eat up a big chunk, but a lot should be rolled over.

 

After 2019, we will have between $80-90M coming off the books, and not all should need to be replaced. Ramirez $22M, Porcello $22.6M, Pablo $19M, Sale $13M, Bogaerts (~$arb), Holt ($arb) and Rutledge ($arb), but we'll need to replace or extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey. Devers and Travis (Hernandez/Chatham/Longhi/Chavis/Ockimey) can replace Ramirez 1B/DH & Pablo 3B/1B. Maybe Groome could make an impact somehow by then, but we should be able to extend Sale, Porcello & Bogey with the $85M plus what's left over after arb raises fro the $60M rolled over from the previous 2 years. A lot of the depends on how we replaced Kimbrel, but we may have enough money left over to squeeze out a decent closer from free agency.

 

After 2020, too many variables are at stake. (Probably several variables will play intoi 2018 as well.) We'll have Betts and JBJ off their last arb year along with Wright, Leon, Vaz and C Smith. That's the time we'll be wishing we had a strong farm with ML talent available.

 

 

Assuming Price does not opt out, I don't think we'll be able to sign BOTH Sale and Porcello for 2020. It's difficult to project out that far but I'm hoping Groome in on track to be a top notch starter. (assuming DD hasn't traded him away, lol). E Rod will be in his 5th of 6th year for FA purposes.

 

Say we sign Sale.... our rotation will be Price, Sale, E Rod, Wright and Groome for 2020. I would like for Drew Pomeranz to be extended through 2020. I think he's on the verge of breaking out. Getting rid of Clay B will make that possible.

 

It's clear what DD's mo is. He prefers big, badass, starting pitchers. DD likes both E Rod and Pomeranz and in the end, it matters little what YOU (all of us part time GMs) think.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Assuming Price does not opt out, I don't think we'll be able to sign BOTH Sale and Porcello for 2020.

 

We could probably skimp and save and sign two out of Sale, Porcello and Bogey. Considering they might be making close to $50M combined that last year, we may only have to come up with $30-40M extra per year. As I showed before, if we don't replace all the 2017 and 2018 salaries with long term deals.

[Dojji]

Why borrow trouble? Embrace the team we have now and deal with the aftermath when it's gone. It's DD's job to worry about the future, not ours.

[a700hitter]

Why borrow trouble? Embrace the team we have now and deal with the aftermath when it's gone. It's DD's job to worry about the future, not ours.

Exactly. We have a team full of young stars in their primes or approaching their primes. Why are people looking forward with angst to 2020 and beyond. I just can't grasp that mentality.

[Kimmi]

But by the same token, Theo only got Lester because he bumped our offer by 20 million. Most people said Theo overpaid for Lester. Anybody (with the money behind them) could do that too.

 

It's not really the individual moves that determine a GM's success. It's the total package that he puts together.

 

Of course. It's usually the case that the team that gets the free agent is the one that pays the most.

 

But you can't really compare what Theo has done with the Cubs to what Dombrowski has done so far with the Red Sox. It's not even close, for several reasons.

[Kimmi]

If you really want to blame someone for a shift in philosophy, there's only one man you should be blaming and that's JH himself. He's the one who replaced BC with DD, and you can bet DD is doing exactly what JH expected him to do.

 

I do blame Henry as well. I have said more than once that he tends to panic and overreact. My feeling is that Henry hired Dombrowski with the directive to get this team back to the playoffs. I'm not sure that Henry necessarily created or promoted the shift in philosophy, but he was willing to allow Dombrowski free reign to get the job done.

 

I have also said more than once that he should have allowed Ben to see his long term plan come to fruition. I am 99% confident that we would have made the playoffs in 2016 with Ben still at the helm.

[Kimmi]

Unless Clay Buchholz is the pitcher who goes down. It's happened.

 

Harmony, you do seem a little obsessed with Clay.

 

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Kimmi]

The title is most important. The Sox threw Hall of Famers into LF for half a century and brought home zero titles with them....

 

The title is important. Unfortunately, selling the farm does not guarantee anything.

[a700hitter]

The title is important. Unfortunately, selling the farm does not guarantee anything.

And going exclusively with your farm never results in winning anything.