Red Sox Offense 2016

[Emp9]

I don't think we can compare Bradley to Castillo. Bradley had a proven track record of good hitting in the minors.

 

BTW, I knew that Bradley had a great arm, but I just read he's been clocked at over 100 MPH.

 

I wasn't comparing their MiLB #'s. I was comparing JBJ's adjustment to his previous long swing by shortening it and creating more bat speed, to Castillo's present long swing, lack of adjustment on shortening it and his continued lack of bat speed.

[User Name]

How do we know Castillo's problem is a long swing and/or lack of bat speed?

[moonslav59]

Here's two things I think will happen this year:

1) Betts ends up with a top 3 OPS on the team. (He's currently 7th and about 240 points behind the current #3 guy.)

2) Out of the 8 guys currently on pace for 80 RBIs, only 6 will reach that number: Ortiz, Ramirez, Betts, JBJ, Bogey & Pedey (not Shaw & Holt).

 

Betts is making a big push to make my first projection a reality.

Edited May 21, 2016 by moonslav59

[robert vonhalle]

Betts is making a big push to make my first projection a reality.

 

i remember when you picked shaw to become a star!-i was canetime over at the globe.

[moonslav59]

Updated team OPS leaders:

 

1.035 JBJ (has now passed Papi!)

1.033 Ortiz (on pace for 3rd best OPS of his career & best since 2007)

.979 Rutledge (only 30 PAs)

.926 Shaw

.884 Bogey

.828 Pedey

.824 Ramirez

.822 Betts

.722 Young

.664 Holt

.626 Vazquez

.541 Swihart

.533 Hernandez

.490 Hanigan

 

Betts is .006 from 5th place now. He's .062 from 4th and 1.004 from 3rd.

[moonslav59]

i remember when you picked shaw to become a star!-i was canetime over at the globe.

 

Yes, Shaw was my sleep prospect pick for a couple of years way back when,

I lost faith after his series of bad stretches as he reached AA ans AAA,

Now, I'n torn.

[Emp9]

How do we know Castillo's problem is a long swing and/or lack of bat speed?

 

Sure, you can increase some bat speed. (i mean it's worth a try. There's enough correlation that it might mean causation). Swing your bat about 1 ft & 1/2 standing by a chain-link fence. Don't let your bat hit the fence. Repeat. Good luck.

[User Name]

Sure, you can increase some bat speed. (i mean it's worth a try. There's enough correlation that it might mean causation). Swing your bat about 1 ft & 1/2 standing by a chain-link fence. Don't let your bat hit the fence. Repeat. Good luck.

 

That's not my question. What I'm asking is for any support on the idea that Castillo's problem is slider-type bat speed. If anything, I thought it was mostly a pitch selection problem with him, so I'm curious to know how you are drawing this conclusion.

[Bellhorn04]

Updated team OPS leaders:

 

1.035 JBJ (has now passed Papi!)

1.033 Ortiz (on pace for 3rd best OPS of his career & best since 2007)

.979 Rutledge (only 30 PAs)

.926 Shaw

.884 Bogey

.828 Pedey

.824 Ramirez

.822 Betts

.722 Young

.664 Holt

.626 Vazquez

.541 Swihart

.533 Hernandez

.490 Hanigan

 

Betts is .006 from 5th place now. He's .062 from 4th and 1.004 from 3rd.

 

Bradley is having a sick month.

[moonslav59]

Bradley is having a sick month.

 

I'm confident JBJ can stay hot for more than a month. He's had two "sick" months over his short ML career, and the rest has been pretty much horrible offensively.

[greenwell]

Bradley is now leading the AL in Avg, OPS and Triples, 3rd in RBI.

Today's game really showed that he needs to be moved in the order. 7th is the worst place for him. 3 walks today. At least put him back to 9th so he has Betts hitting after him.

[moonslav59]

Put the leading OPs guy 9th?

Now, I've heard everything.

Lord, take me now!

[Dojji]

Lineup position doesn't matter. If he's comfortable and producing like a champ in the bottom of the order that's a good thing, it means we have threats up and down the lineup.

[greenwell]

Put the leading OPs guy 9th?

Now, I've heard everything.

Lord, take me now!

 

I agree he should be in the top part of the order. My point was even 9th would be better than 7th because he would be harder to pitch around.

[mvp 78]

Lineup position doesn't matter. If he's comfortable and producing like a champ in the bottom of the order that's a good thing, it means we have threats up and down the lineup.

 

I agree with this. Players aren't robots and MLB guys are creatures of habit.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm confident JBJ can stay hot for more than a month. He's had two "sick" months over his short ML career, and the rest has been pretty much horrible offensively.

 

Here are his last 4 months:

 

Aug/15 1.163

Sept/15 .739

Apr/16 .807

May/16 1.300

 

That's 2 ridiculous months, 1 good month and 1 average month.

[sk7326]

Bradley is now leading the AL in Avg, OPS and Triples, 3rd in RBI.

Today's game really showed that he needs to be moved in the order. 7th is the worst place for him. 3 walks today. At least put him back to 9th so he has Betts hitting after him.

 

The Red Sox have 6 of the Top 20 position players in fWAR, which is inconceivable over the whole season. I expect Bradley to give some of this up - if he ends in a .270/.330 spot he will be just fine. Right now this is an MVP candidate which does not seem likely to persist. (and weirdly not the best MVP candidate on the team so far)

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox have 6 of the Top 20 position players in fWAR, which is inconceivable over the whole season. I expect Bradley to give some of this up - if he ends in a .270/.330 spot he will be just fine. Right now this is an MVP candidate which does not seem likely to persist. (and weirdly not the best MVP candidate on the team so far)

And with all that hitting and good fielding, we do not have the best record in baseball and we can't overtake the O's. The hitting will not continue at this pace, so we need to improve our pitching to win the division.

[User Name]

E-Rod got fitted with a knee brace and should be about ready to re-start his rehab assignment. Getting him back is imperative for this team to stay in contention.

[a700hitter]

E-Rod got fitted with a knee brace and should be about ready to re-start his rehab assignment. Getting him back is imperative for this team to stay in contention.

Yep, and DD had better have a contingency plan. Buch is always 1 pitch away from ending his season.

[sk7326]

And with all that hitting and good fielding, we do not have the best record in baseball and we can't overtake the O's. The hitting will not continue at this pace, so we need to improve our pitching to win the division.

 

Cubs are on a 112 win pace. Orioles are counting on Chris Tillman's crazy homerun luck to continue. Red Sox staff still has significant upside. Sox are on a 95 win pace with the AL's best scoring margin. Sox need another reliable starter, but much more signs of the party continuing than Baltimore.

[moonslav59]

Here are his last 4 months:

 

Aug/15 1.163

Sept/15 .739

Apr/16 .807

May/16 1.300

 

That's 2 ridiculous months, 1 good month and 1 average month.

 

Sox OPS leaders over the last 365 days:

.990 Ortiz

.937 JBJ

.863 Shaw

.860 Betts

.819 Bogey

.818 Pedey

.770 Rutledge

.750 Swihart

.733 Ramirez

.700 Holt

.658 Castillo

.626 Vazquez

.608 Sandoval

.607 Hanigan

[moonslav59]

I recall reading several posters saying something similar to this, "We know for sure that JBJ will never be able to hit ML pitching."

I never understand the use of such definitive statements after sample sizes of just 100-500 PAs or even more.

I kind of feel the same way about Shaw, but in reverse. I'm not saying I am certain he will come back down to earth, but to me, he has yet to prove he is an .800+ hitter.

Minor league numbers are not 100% accurate projection tools, but it is rare than a player deviates wildly from his AA and AAA combined numbers.

[sk7326]

I recall reading several posters saying something similar to this, "We know for sure that JBJ will never be able to hit ML pitching."

I never understand the use of such definitive statements after sample sizes of just 100-500 PAs or even more.

I kind of feel the same way about Shaw, but in reverse. I'm not saying I am certain he will come back down to earth, but to me, he has yet to prove he is an .800+ hitter.

Minor league numbers are not 100% accurate projection tools, but it is rare than a player deviates wildly from his AA and AAA combined numbers.

 

Very true. I think the more important thing is that we know Bradley could hit AAA pitching - whatever he needed to do, he had to do with big league reps

[Dojji]

a .793 road OPS is excellent.

[devildavid]

a .793 road OPS is excellent.

 

Sorry, my post came out so fugly I deleted it.

[moonslav59]

Some interesting career numbers by JBJ:

657 PAs vs RHPs .696 OPS

296 PAs vs LHPs .736 OPS

448 PAs Home .808

505 PAs away .619

241 PAs RISP .872 OPS

419 PAs Men on .840 OPS

100 PAs First pitch .806

1-0 1.461

2-0 1.000

3-0 (20 PAs- 20 BBs!)

2-1 .769

3-1 1.417

[S5Dewey]

Those are pretty good numbers for a player who less than a year ago was considered to be "no more than a .200 hitter", "self-centered", "egotistical", "uncoachable", and "will never be more than a late-inning defensive replacement".

 

It amazes me that some are still talking about him as "trade bait".

[mvp 78]

Well, I don't believe that stuff was said on this board. You can leave those hot takes wherever BDC was interred.

[S5Dewey]

Well, I don't believe that stuff was said on this board. You can leave those hot takes wherever BDC was interred.

 

That post would have been a lot less offensive without the last sentence. Jus' sayin'.