Red Sox Offense 2016

[Bellhorn04]

Ben turns 35 in a few days.

Although he had an .809 OPS last year, his OPS had been in decline for the two prior years. Also, he had his lowest PA number since 2009 last year.

I'm not trying to say Holt is as good as Zobrist, but if you look at their ages, versatility versus and comparative contractual costs, I think one can see that some teams would greatly value Holt.

 

Why is Holt more valuable to other teams than us?

Several reasons:

1) We have Rutledge, Hernandez and Marrero behind 5 vets at the 4 infield positions.

2) We have Betts, JBJ, Young, Castillo and soon to be Benintendi and possibly Moncada to play OF or IF in Moncada's case. Not many other teams have positional depth like we do.

3) The step "down" from Holt to Rutledge/Young is mush less than the step down between Holt and some of the clowns starting for other teams, for example, he'd be the 4th best hitter on the Astros... easily.

4) His contractual cost is a big plus to many contending teams, while the Sox can afford to pay someone more than what he makes to be on the 25 man roster, if need be.

 

Here's what I think. If we were in serious negotiations with another team for a starting pitcher this past offseason and they were insistent on us giving up Holt, Dave Dombrowski would not have hesitated in doing so.

[Slasher9]

Brock Holt is a manager's dream. The guy can play anywhere at anytime without hurting you, he has a great attitude and he produces. Somebody in baseball was saying on WEEI the other day how every team is looking for a Brock Holt type and though you would think that you could turn any utility guy into a player like him, it's not that easy. He has a ton of value for the Sox.

 

I'm not sure why the Red Sox would ever want to trade a player who can play everywhere, produces and does it with a smile. I've never read or heard of him being in a trade rumor. It doesn't make any sense to me why tbey would ever want to get rid of this guy. John Farrell would probably freak if he was traded.

 

exactly. plus we have a ton of prospects that can net us what we want/need without throwing in our super utility man.

[Slasher9]

Brock Holt is a manager's dream. The guy can play anywhere at anytime without hurting you, he has a great attitude and he produces. Somebody in baseball was saying on WEEI the other day how every team is looking for a Brock Holt type and though you would think that you could turn any utility guy into a player like him, it's not that easy. He has a ton of value for the Sox.

 

I'm not sure why the Red Sox would ever want to trade a player who can play everywhere, produces and does it with a smile. I've never read or heard of him being in a trade rumor. It doesn't make any sense to me why tbey would ever want to get rid of this guy. John Farrell would probably freak if he was traded.

 

 

That value you see in Holt is the same value other GMs might see in him. You don't get value without giving up value.

Suggesting a trade of Holt is not devaluing him.

Our need for a solid SP'er is much greater than our need for a super sub who continuously slumps after the halfway point of every season.

Our replacements for Holt are very capable. Our replacement for Kelly/ERod is O'Sullivan. The differential is stark.

How does this theory not make any sense to you?

I can see the value in keeping him, especially with a DH like Papi affecting our roster flexibility, but looking ahead, I see Benintendi and Moncada eventually squeezing out Holt's PAs, so to me, we should have traded him while his stock was (and still is) highest.

 

Holt is 100% expendable once Papi retires. until then, there is no reason to trade him. he wouldnt be a centerpiece of any deal netting us a quality starter. we dont need to use him as a "throw in" until Papi is gone.

[Emp9]

I don't think Holt would have been the centerpiece of any trade netting us a decent pitcher, but if you look at what Zobrist was paid at his age, I think Holt had more value to some other team in MLB than the Sox.

 

No, of course not. Swihart & Devers wld have been, followed by a few others. I still think the Mets are a good trade partner candidate. D'Arnaud is good, but injured quite often. On the surface, I thought Swihart & Holt (great fit for the NL) specifically would make alot of sense for them.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your offense is solid....for now. You've played a bunch of teams down on their luck and have pissed all over the faces of their pitching. The state of pitching is WAY down in the AL, and with the fact that the sox are hitting on all cylinders, should propel them to the league's best offense. Thing is, there are very few offensive juggernauts who have won the title without some semblance of pitching. The sox right now have the 19th best ERA in baseball and the 10th in the AL, one spot behind the cauldron of pitching s*** that is the Angels. You will need pitching.

 

You need Price to step up and be an ace on a contending team. You need someone behind him to stand up consistently. Porcello fell last night. Wright had been good before getting blasted by Houston, but he might be the guy. Buchholz has been a disaster. Your 5th spot is a rotating spot of suck. ERod just re-injured his knee and is out indefinitely. I think you'll see a dry spell shortly where the balls don't fall in and the sox will fall back to earth a bit. The one thing that your hot start has given you is time. Time for DD to see who has the stamina to be in this for the long haul. And time to work on a deal. You will have to make a deal for a pitcher at some point to be a true title contender.

[sk7326]

There are some basic things which are working for Price - abnormally low strand rates so far which you expect to get better. Strikeouts are at a career high and while walks and homeruns are not great they are not out of line with his career. Flashed 96 against Houston. He'll be fine.

[Bellhorn04]

Your offense is solid....for now. You've played a bunch of teams down on their luck and have pissed all over the faces of their pitching. The state of pitching is WAY down in the AL

 

Based on what numbers? The overall pitching stats for the AL are MARGINALLY worse than they were in 2015.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not saying that the Sox wouldn't trade Holt in a deal for a TOTR starter, I just think that a team that would trade one would be rebuilding and wouldn't insist on Brock Holt. The Sox seem to love the guy and don't seem to have any interest in moving him, certainly not while they are in contention. He's much too valuable. Rutledge & Hernandez can't do what Holt does. Few players can, especially with his terrific attitude.

 

I think that the main reason that the Red Sox went so hard after Price was because there was nothing that interested them who might've been available in trade. Shelby Miller? Definitely not at that price. Who else was available? Nearly all teams feel that they can compete these days.

 

I can see the Sox trying to acquire a starter at some point, I just seriously doubt that Brock Holt's name will be in the discussion.

[jacksonianmarch]

Based on what numbers? The overall pitching stats for the AL are MARGINALLY worse than they were in 2015.

 

Take a look at your leaderboard in the AL this yr and tell me how many guys have a snowball's chance in hell of being this good for the season. You've seen a lot of good pitchers start the yr off horribly (Gray, Keuchel, Price) and a bunch of fluky players start off awesome (Wright, Hill, Lewis, Happ, Latos, Quintana). Also, while the relievers are kicking ass, The AL's SP ERA is up by 0.2, as a league. That's a big, big margin.

[Emp9]

Take a look at your leaderboard in the AL this yr and tell me how many guys have a snowball's chance in hell of being this good for the season. You've seen a lot of good pitchers start the yr off horribly (Gray, Keuchel, Price) and a bunch of fluky players start off awesome (Wright, Hill, Lewis, Happ, Latos, Quintana). Also, while the relievers are kicking ass, The AL's SP ERA is up by 0.2, as a league. That's a big, big margin.

 

I'd argue Quintana has been one of the best and most underrated SPers of the last 3 years. Wright has pitched way better than I ever imagined, but I thought from the beginning he'd be an effective 4 -5 and rack up a lot of much needed quality starts. Wright's last start was in the pouring rain, a game that probably should've been ppd is his only blemish.

[User Name]

Latos is back down to earth, and something definitely clicked for Hill and Happ last year.

[moonslav59]

Here's what I think. If we were in serious negotiations with another team for a starting pitcher this past offseason and they were insistent on us giving up Holt, Dave Dombrowski would not have hesitated in doing so.

 

I have never argued Holt by himself would bring back a quality pitcher. My suggested offers were not even with Holt as the headliner, and some had him as the 3rd or 4th piece.

[Jasonbay44]

I'd argue Quintana has been one of the best and most underrated SPers of the last 3 years. Wright has pitched way better than I ever imagined, but I thought from the beginning he'd be an effective 4 -5 and rack up a lot of much needed quality starts. Wright's last start was in the pouring rain, a game that probably should've been ppd is his only blemish.

 

I agree with a lot of what Jacko said, this has been a weird fluke year for pitchers, especially in fantasy. Dallas Keuchel has been awful for me, but Steven Wright has been amazing.

 

But definitely agree about Quintana, that dude is nasty and definitely isn't a fluke start like the other guys, he has been consistently good almost his whole career.

[moonslav59]

Holt has 3 arb years after this season. That makes him valuable to teams looking to compete now, next year and teams looking 2-3 years out.

[moonslav59]

Quintana and Salazar were two pitchers I hoped we'd go hard after. Instead of trading for Kimbrel, I thought we could have offered that package plus Holt and Swihart and/or Devers and got the deal done.

[Bellhorn04]

Take a look at your leaderboard in the AL this yr and tell me how many guys have a snowball's chance in hell of being this good for the season. You've seen a lot of good pitchers start the yr off horribly (Gray, Keuchel, Price) and a bunch of fluky players start off awesome (Wright, Hill, Lewis, Happ, Latos, Quintana). Also, while the relievers are kicking ass, The AL's SP ERA is up by 0.2, as a league. That's a big, big margin.

 

Starting pitching is worse, agreed. But relief pitching is better. So the net decrease in runs scored is not large.

[Bellhorn04]

Holt has 3 arb years after this season. That makes him valuable to teams looking to compete now, next year and teams looking 2-3 years out.

 

So much depends on whether Holt really is this guy who wilts after a while. If he is then moving him this year makes sense.

[moonslav59]

Here's two things I think will happen this year:

1) Betts ends up with a top 3 OPS on the team. (He's currently 7th and about 240 points behind the current #3 guy.)

2) Out of the 8 guys currently on pace for 80 RBIs, only 6 will reach that number: Ortiz, Ramirez, Betts, JBJ, Bogey & Pedey (not Shaw & Holt).

[Eddy Ballgame]

Never saw anything where Cleveland was willing to part with starting pitching this past off season. I'm guessing they planned to be competitive this season with that rotation. I don't think any of their starters were ever available last winter.

 

I also think that's why the Red Sox went all in on Price. The trade market for top starters was non-existent.

That's also possibly why they went hard after Kimbrel. They figured that if they couldn't get another top starter, go get the best reliever available and try to shorten games.

[royf19]

Here's two things I think will happen this year:

1) Betts ends up with a top 3 OPS on the team. (He's currently 7th and about 240 points behind the current #3 guy.)

2) Out of the 8 guys currently on pace for 80 RBIs, only 6 will reach that number: Ortiz, Ramirez, Betts, JBJ, Bogey & Pedey (not Shaw & Holt).

 

I half disagree with you. I think Shaw is a great bet to reach 80 RBIs. He's no pace for nearly 120 RBIS. You want to say that he's not going to reach 100 -- fine. by he needs just 51 RBIs the final 4 1/2 months. That's just 11-12 RBIs a month. He's third on the team in RBIs and I could see him finishing the season in the top three.

[Emp9]

I agree with a lot of what Jacko said, this has been a weird fluke year for pitchers, especially in fantasy. Dallas Keuchel has been awful for me, but Steven Wright has been amazing.

 

But definitely agree about Quintana, that dude is nasty and definitely isn't a fluke start like the other guys, he has been consistently good almost his whole career.

 

Yep, he does have a point, i just wouldn't throw Quintina in with the rest. And Wright has always been more consistent than Kelly in my view. I think Wright may have better stuff than Wakefield and Wake pitched 'til he was in his mid 40's. Wright could have a very nice, long career as our 4th or 5th SP eating up innings and giving us QSs

[Eddy Ballgame]

We are a quarter of the way through the season and Shaw is tied for 9th in RBIs in all of baseball. If he continues to bat fifth in that line-up all year, he would need to get injured not to reach 80 RBIs! Do you know something about his health that no one else does Moonslav? Lol

[Jasonbay44]

Yep, he does have a point, i just wouldn't throw Quintina in with the rest. And Wright has always been more consistent than Kelly in my view. I think Wright may have better stuff than Wakefield and Wake pitched 'til he was in his mid 40's. Wright could have a very nice, long career as our 4th or 5th SP eating up innings and giving us QSs

I worded my post kind of weird, but I was agreeing with Jacko's assessment about SP being flukey/weird this year, but also agreeing with what you posted about Quintana not being like the rest. Quintana is a legit pitcher who has been a solid starter for a few years now, opposed to a lot of these other guys having starts out of the ordinary.

[Bellhorn04]

Never saw anything where Cleveland was willing to part with starting pitching this past off season. I'm guessing they planned to be competitive this season with that rotation. I don't think any of their starters were ever available last winter.

 

I also think that's why the Red Sox went all in on Price. The trade market for top starters was non-existent.

That's also possibly why they went hard after Kimbrel. They figured that if they couldn't get another top starter, go get the best reliever available and try to shorten games.

 

Agreed. Did you post on BDC?

[moonslav59]

Never saw anything where Cleveland was willing to part with starting pitching this past off season. I'm guessing they planned to be competitive this season with that rotation. I don't think any of their starters were ever available last winter.

 

I also think that's why the Red Sox went all in on Price. The trade market for top starters was non-existent.

That's also possibly why they went hard after Kimbrel. They figured that if they couldn't get another top starter, go get the best reliever available and try to shorten games.

 

It might have been just hot air, but there were several rumors about Cleveland shopping Carrasco, Salazar and possibly Kluber. I remember one rumor involved JBJ, but I'm not sure if that deal included one of those top 3 SP'er.

[moonslav59]

We are a quarter of the way through the season and Shaw is tied for 9th in RBIs in all of baseball. If he continues to bat fifth in that line-up all year, he would need to get injured not to reach 80 RBIs! Do you know something about his health that no one else does Moonslav? Lol

 

I can certainly see him getting over 80, but I think he will slump, and I think the Sox will not continue at this scoring pace, so he will not have as many opportunities.

Note: I would not bet on my hunch.

[Dojji]

Moonslav would it kill you not to write everything you post in bold? It's like posting in all caps, it reads like you're shouting all the time.

 

We have a very nice qoute feature in this thread along with all sorts of other shiny buttons. Learn what all the shiny buttons do please.

[SinceYaz]

Never saw anything where Cleveland was willing to part with starting pitching this past off season. I'm guessing they planned to be competitive this season with that rotation. I don't think any of their starters were ever available last winter.

 

I also think that's why the Red Sox went all in on Price. The trade market for top starters was non-existent.

That's also possibly why they went hard after Kimbrel. They figured that if they couldn't get another top starter, go get the best reliever available and try to shorten games.

 

I think you are right about Cleveland's pitching. I don't remember where I heard it, saw it, but they had no plans to trade. On my old forum, there was a fair amount of talk that trades could be made. Ya gotta remember something else, Tito is still the manager and he doesn't give up on his pitchers.

 

The FA market this next off season is rated as one of the worst in a long time. That is one reason why the Nats went ahead with signing Strasburg - really out of character for his agent, Borus.

[SinceYaz]

Moonslav would it kill you not to write everything you post in bold? It's like posting in all caps, it reads like you're shouting all the time.

 

We have a very nice qoute feature in this thread along with all sorts of other shiny buttons. Learn what all the shiny buttons do please.

 

It's just his trademark, Dojji. He isn't offensive, very introspective and crowded with stats. I've always enjoyed his personality and posts. Top notch.

[SinceYaz]

Here's two things I think will happen this year:

1) Betts ends up with a top 3 OPS on the team. (He's currently 7th and about 240 points behind the current #3 guy.)

2) Out of the 8 guys currently on pace for 80 RBIs, only 6 will reach that number: Ortiz, Ramirez, Betts, JBJ, Bogey & Pedey (not Shaw & Holt).

 

I don't see Holt making the 80, but I certainly see Shaw at 80+.