Red Sox Offense 2016

[SinceYaz]

Benintendi promoted to Portland.

 

Just sayin... here we go. I'm skeptical he can make the rapid adjustments to get all the way to the big leagues from Salem this year, but this is one of the steps he has to complete to get there.

 

Oh man Oh man... this guy has been killin' it at Salem. (I lived there for 2 years, back when I wasn't yet 30.) He's been hitting been hitting like crazy! It must be fun to watch him and Moncada playing together. We'll see them in a couple years ... I;m freakin' a little

[bosoxmal]

Lost in the barrage of base hits is the most impressive stat(sT of all: SB 30 and CS 2. Both are league-leading.

 

The JF of old seems to have been re-incarnated!

[Hugh2]

BABIP

 

Travis Shaw .398

Hanley Ramirez .396

Jackie Bradley Jr. .390

Xander Bogaerts .389

 

 

 

....sorry.

 

P.S. I still think this is going to be one of the best offenses all year, and I still think all those guys will be good. But a regression is coming.

[mvp 78]

If you hit line drives, your BBIP will be high. No surprise there...

[Kimmi]

BABIP

 

Travis Shaw .398

Hanley Ramirez .396

Jackie Bradley Jr. .390

Xander Bogaerts .389

 

 

 

....sorry.

 

P.S. I still think this is going to be one of the best offenses all year, and I still think all those guys will be good. But a regression is coming.

 

LOL Hugh, don't rain on our parade!

 

Yes, regression is inevitable. That said, even with the regression, the offense looks to be one of the top 2-3 in the AL. Baltimore and Texas are good, and no one else is even close, though the Jays bats should wake up.

 

The Sox have scored 6.03 runs/game so far. Fangraphs has them projected to score 4.81 runs/game the rest of the season. In comparison, the Os are projected at 4.73 runs/game and the Jays at 4.71 runs/game.

[sk7326]

Benintendi promoted to Portland.

 

Just sayin... here we go. I'm skeptical he can make the rapid adjustments to get all the way to the big leagues from Salem this year, but this is one of the steps he has to complete to get there.

 

His career start has been proof that his success at Arkansas was legit - he can mash that level of competition. (SEC tracks fairly well to High A). Now AA will give us more knowledge about where he really is. As I've noted before, I think there is about a 20% chance he is up here to man LF.

[Hugh2]

If you hit line drives, your BBIP will be high. No surprise there...

 

I agree, BABIP can be a skill to an extent. If you are hitting more line drives and making harder contact you will have a higher BABIP. Some players always have BABIP above .300. I tend to put more weight into BABIP in terms to a players own large sample size.

 

Still....I expect some type of regression.

[Hugh2]

LOL Hugh, don't rain on our parade!

 

Yes, regression is inevitable. That said, even with the regression, the offense looks to be one of the top 2-3 in the AL. Baltimore and Texas are good, and no one else is even close, though the Jays bats should wake up.

 

The Sox have scored 6.03 runs/game so far. Fangraphs has them projected to score 4.81 runs/game the rest of the season. In comparison, the Os are projected at 4.73 runs/game and the Jays at 4.71 runs/game.

 

Yes, I did say I still think this is one of the leagues best offenses. But when the Sox come back down to earth (and still have a really really really good offense) the pitching will be exposed. Of course, that might somewhat be apparent now.

[Kimmi]

If you hit line drives, your BBIP will be high. No surprise there...

 

League average line drive rate is 24%, according to B-R.

 

Line drive rates for the following players with high BABIP:

 

Travis Shaw - 25%

Hanley Ramirez - 21%

Jackie Bradley Jr. - 20%

Xander Bogaerts - 20%

 

Except for Shaw, none of those guys is hitting line drives at a higher than average rate. And Fangraphs has Shaw at about 20%.

[mvp 78]

League average line drive rate is 24%, according to B-R.

 

Line drive rates for the following players with high BABIP:

 

Travis Shaw - 25%

Hanley Ramirez - 21%

Jackie Bradley Jr. - 20%

Xander Bogaerts - 20%

 

Except for Shaw, none of those guys is hitting line drives at a higher than average rate. And Fangraphs has Shaw at about 20%.

 

Fangraphs is tabloid trash unless it agrees with my argument (then it's just regular trash).

[moonslav59]

The OBP leaders so far for the Sox are...

.467 Rutledge

.405 Ortiz

.391 Swihart

.391 Shaw

.390 Bogey

.374 JBJ

.367 HanRam

.349 Pedey

.333 Young

.327 Young

.306 Betts

.304 Vazquez

.268 Hanigan

 

SLG

.695 Ortiz

.593 Rutledge

.588 JBJ

.547 Shaw

.503 Bogey

.479 HanRam

.478 Pedey

.442 Betts

.404 Young

.385 Holt

.375 Vazquez

.278 Swihart

.255 Hanigan

[moonslav59]

50+ PAs

BAbip Player LD% Hard%

.398 Shaw 20% 31%

.396 Ram 22% 37%

.390 JBJ 21% 39%

.389 Bogey 20% 32%

.387 Young 26% 32%

.328 Pedey 21% 26%

.326 Ortiz 18% 48%

.326 Vaz 21% 28%

.283 Betts 20% 31%

.282 Holt 25% 25%

.256 Hanig 26% 31%

[greenwell]

I agree, BABIP can be a skill to an extent. If you are hitting more line drives and making harder contact you will have a higher BABIP. Some players always have BABIP above .300. I tend to put more weight into BABIP in terms to a players own large sample size.

 

Still....I expect some type of regression.

 

I think this is also in line with the going the other way trend. How many times last year did we see Xander slap the ball over the second baseman's head for a single? This wasn't luck, he was trying to hit it there. This is something a lot of sox players are doing and would likely increase their babip.

[Hugh2]

I think this is also in line with the going the other way trend. How many times last year did we see Xander slap the ball over the second baseman's head for a single? This wasn't luck, he was trying to hit it there. This is something a lot of sox players are doing and would likely increase their babip.

 

Like I said, BABIP can be a skill...but I highly doubt half the team is going to BABIP close to .400 the whole year. Hard contact, good contact, and hitting line drives can definitely increase your BABIP over the long run but even then it's very hard to maintain those numbers. Think of it this way.....those 4 guys have a higher average on balls in play of close to .100 than David Ortiz. If they do keep this up then we could have a close to a historic season offensively on our hands and we will all be salivating at the mouth with joy come October. Which I hope to be doing.

[SinceYaz]

The OBP leaders so far for the Sox are...

.467 Rutledge

.405 Ortiz

.391 Swihart

.391 Shaw

.390 Bogey

.374 JBJ

.367 HanRam

.349 Pedey

.333 Young

.327 Young

.306 Betts

.304 Vazquez

.268 Hanigan

 

SLG

.695 Ortiz

.593 Rutledge

.588 JBJ

.547 Shaw

.503 Bogey

.479 HanRam

.478 Pedey

.442 Betts

.404 Young

.385 Holt

.375 Vazquez

.278 Swihart

.255 Hanigan

 

Moon,

 

Love your stats and thank you for them. Did you notice that even Hannigan had a 4 rbi day? He's at the bottom but he's still helping some. We don't beat the Astros in the last game without his big game.

 

Everyone is helping ... love the length. Length matters .....

 

And Betts hasn't even gotten going well ... (no secret there)

[SinceYaz]

Like I said, BABIP can be a skill...but I highly doubt half the team is going to BABIP close to .400 the whole year. Hard contact, good contact, and hitting line drives can definitely increase your BABIP over the long run but even then it's very hard to maintain those numbers. Think of it this way.....those 4 guys have a higher average on balls in play of close to .100 than David Ortiz. If they do keep this up then we could have a close to a historic season offensively on our hands and we will all be salivating at the mouth with joy come October. Which I hope to be doing.

 

Hugh,

 

I already have loads of napkins and paper towels stored up!

[SinceYaz]

I think this is also in line with the going the other way trend. How many times last year did we see Xander slap the ball over the second baseman's head for a single? This wasn't luck, he was trying to hit it there. This is something a lot of sox players are doing and would likely increase their babip.

 

Gator ... may I call you Gator?

 

Have you seen the look on Chili Davis's face when the guys start going the other way? Last year there was little good to take note of, until the latter portion. This season, especially this last homestand, he had a sneaky, maybe even a little evil, smile on his face. If his coaching is catching on up and down the lineup and they are all hitting to all fields, as they seem to be doing more of, the whole park is theirs to play with. Harder to defend ... gaps open up, shifts lose their effectiveness ... nice going all the way around.

IOW, you're on the mark ... they are practicing the skill, developing it right before our very eyes! (Small Chicago reference there...)

[SinceYaz]

Off to work, so I'll check back in later tonight ... midnight-ish....

 

Go SOX beat the Champs!

[Emp9]

Ben supposedly had always liked Rutledge.

 

What's going to happen if he keeps an OPS over 1.000?

 

Holt looks to be hitting the wall early this year.

 

Do we now have to start giving Josh some reps in LF?

 

(I'd have traded Holt while his stock was high.)

I'm still a little surprised Holt wasn't traded along w/ some prospects for a SP. I thought it was the most obvious thing to do. Holt is a fire-cracker though. Maybe they were worried about chemistry?

[greenwell]

Gator ... may I call you Gator?

 

Have you seen the look on Chili Davis's face when the guys start going the other way? Last year there was little good to take note of, until the latter portion. This season, especially this last homestand, he had a sneaky, maybe even a little evil, smile on his face. If his coaching is catching on up and down the lineup and they are all hitting to all fields, as they seem to be doing more of, the whole park is theirs to play with. Harder to defend ... gaps open up, shifts lose their effectiveness ... nice going all the way around.

IOW, you're on the mark ... they are practicing the skill, developing it right before our very eyes! (Small Chicago reference there...)

 

GAtor is fine with me.

It's certainly been fun to watch.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still a little surprised Holt wasn't traded along w/ some prospects for a SP. I thought it was the most obvious thing to do. Holt is a fire-cracker though. Maybe they were worried about chemistry?

 

Holt is a good guy to have around even if he's not starting. Plus I don't think he's going to make a big difference if you're looking to trade good prospects for a starting pitcher worth trading good prospects for.

[moonslav59]

I'm still a little surprised Holt wasn't traded along w/ some prospects for a SP. I thought it was the most obvious thing to do. Holt is a fire-cracker though. Maybe they were worried about chemistry?

 

I don't think Holt would have been the centerpiece of any trade netting us a decent pitcher, but if you look at what Zobrist was paid at his age, I think Holt had more value to some other team in MLB than the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think Holt would have been the centerpiece of any trade netting us a decent pitcher, but if you look at what Zobrist was paid at his age, I think Holt had more value to some other team in MLB than the Sox.

 

Zobrist is an established upper-tier player. And why would Holt have more value to other teams than to us?

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm still a little surprised Holt wasn't traded along w/ some prospects for a SP. I thought it was the most obvious thing to do. Holt is a fire-cracker though. Maybe they were worried about chemistry?

 

Brock Holt is a manager's dream. The guy can play anywhere at anytime without hurting you, he has a great attitude and he produces. Somebody in baseball was saying on WEEI the other day how every team is looking for a Brock Holt type and though you would think that you could turn any utility guy into a player like him, it's not that easy. He has a ton of value for the Sox.

 

I'm not sure why the Red Sox would ever want to trade a player who can play everywhere, produces and does it with a smile. I've never read or heard of him being in a trade rumor. It doesn't make any sense to me why tbey would ever want to get rid of this guy. John Farrell would probably freak if he was traded.

[moonslav59]

An early quirk:

Sox are...

 

6-1 when scoring 4-5 runs

 

10-4 when scoring 6-8 runs

[moonslav59]

also,,,

Sox are...

9-6 when allowing 4-7 nruns

but only

4-3 when allowing 3 runs

[Bellhorn04]

We've won some slugfests. The concerning number is the ERA of the rotation, which was 4.81 entering tonight and got a little worse.

[moonslav59]

Ben turns 35 in a few days.

Although he had an .809 OPS last year, his OPS had been in decline for the two prior years. Also, he had his lowest PA number since 2009 last year.

I'm not trying to say Holt is as good as Zobrist, but if you look at their ages, versatility versus and comparative contractual costs, I think one can see that some teams would greatly value Holt.

 

Why is Holt more valuable to other teams than us?

Several reasons:

1) We have Rutledge, Hernandez and Marrero behind 5 vets at the 4 infield positions.

2) We have Betts, JBJ, Young, Castillo and soon to be Benintendi and possibly Moncada to play OF or IF in Moncada's case. Not many other teams have positional depth like we do.

3) The step "down" from Holt to Rutledge/Young is mush less than the step down between Holt and some of the clowns starting for other teams, for example, he'd be the 4th best hitter on the Astros... easily.

4) His contractual cost is a big plus to many contending teams, while the Sox can afford to pay someone more than what he makes to be on the 25 man roster, if need be.

[moonslav59]

We've won some slugfests. The concerning number is the ERA of the rotation, which was 4.81 entering tonight and got a little worse.

 

Injuries to ERod and Kelly are part of the issue, but I agree, our biggest weakness is SP'er. That's anopther reason, I felt like we could have spared Holt and others to try and upgrade our quality at the SP'er position. Trade quantity for quality.

 

I'm not going to keep bringing up the prospects we dealt for Kimbrel, but even after that deal, I felt like we could have gotten something very nice for a package like this (this was what I suggested before the season started):

Swihart, Devers, Holt and 2 from Owens, Johnson, Kopech or Ball.

[moonslav59]

Brock Holt is a manager's dream. The guy can play anywhere at anytime without hurting you, he has a great attitude and he produces. Somebody in baseball was saying on WEEI the other day how every team is looking for a Brock Holt type and though you would think that you could turn any utility guy into a player like him, it's not that easy. He has a ton of value for the Sox.

 

I'm not sure why the Red Sox would ever want to trade a player who can play everywhere, produces and does it with a smile. I've never read or heard of him being in a trade rumor. It doesn't make any sense to me why tbey would ever want to get rid of this guy. John Farrell would probably freak if he was traded.

 

 

That value you see in Holt is the same value other GMs might see in him. You don't get value without giving up value.

Suggesting a trade of Holt is not devaluing him.

Our need for a solid SP'er is much greater than our need for a super sub who continuously slumps after the halfway point of every season.

Our replacements for Holt are very capable. Our replacement for Kelly/ERod is O'Sullivan. The differential is stark.

How does this theory not make any sense to you?

I can see the value in keeping him, especially with a DH like Papi affecting our roster flexibility, but looking ahead, I see Benintendi and Moncada eventually squeezing out Holt's PAs, so to me, we should have traded him while his stock was (and still is) highest.