A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

At what point did Whitlock break his leg? 

Dunno, but you can be sure whenever the Red Sox say he did, he'll eventually dispute the timeline.

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He needs to spend more. Almost all of us think or want that.

It's hard to quantify where x, y and z money was spent, but here are the budget numbers per cots:

Opening Day:

$171M in 2024 (The year the Devers extension began.)

$194M in 2025 (including Breggie massive 1 year deal)

$191M in 2026 (including Suarez, Gray, Contreras & K-F)

End of Season:

$188>$198>$206

CB Tax:

$226>$248>$273

One can argue inflation ate up these gains, but one can also argue he spent the Devers & Breggie money and then some. The CB Taz budget is back-end loaded contracts, but the other two are actual budgets.

none of those numbers matter to me. What matters in that when we were winning WS titles our payroll was always in the top 3-4 in MLB. Since DD was canned we are no longer close to the top 3-4. Inflation has driven everything up--we see it every time we go to the grocery store, buy gas, book flights, buy clothes and on and on and on.

After 4 WS titles I don't think JH could care less about anything but profits. Don't even get me started about all the wasted $$ we have spent on rehabbing Pitchers who gave little or more often NOTHING in return. There's been so many I've lost count. Sandavol was the latest.

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

We have higher needs, but you don't just sign two guys and call the offseason done, right? Some posters on here value versatility and maybe Breslow does as well. Guys like Romy don't have as much value now that the Sox have a fulltime RHB 1B. Jahmai Jones is very replaceable (and he kinda stunk down the stretch anyway). I just think there is a lot of junk on this roster that could be improved upon. Breslow brought in Adley and Mead to be big acquisitions for last year AND this year. There's a good chance they aren't adding anything big this offseason. 

better than a good chance

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

none of those numbers matter to me. What matters in that when we were winning WS titles our payroll was always in the top 3-4 in MLB. Since DD was canned we are no longer close to the top 3-4. Inflation has driven everything up--we see it every time we go to the grocery store, buy gas, book flights, buy clothes and on and on and on.

After 4 WS titles I don't think JH could care less about anything but profits. Don't even get me started about all the wasted $$ we have spent on rehabbing Pitchers who gave little or more often NOTHING in return. There's been so many I've lost count. Sandavol was the latest.

I agree many mistakes were made and the effort from JH has been more than lacking.

My post was in reply to the statement that the Devers and Breggie money was not replaced.

It was by the numbers. It just wasn't enough, despite quite a few deal and trades that worked out well.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

At what point did Whitlock break his leg? 

Red will call it a broken little toe.

[moonslav59]

While I recognize a great cost was paid out, in terms of valued prospects, to get Mead, AR and Miller, I hope to God JH, Brez & Co. aren't thinking nothing else major needs to be added.

I'm even thinking 2 major additions, but would settle on one, if it's Sato, DLC or Abrams.

I disagree with those who want to focus on marginal improvements to the flexibility of our bench or by spreading out the winter spending budget to add four guys making $7M vs 1 making $30M.

We've gone through 4 years of Bloom and 3 of Brez, where much of the focus was building up the farm and the 40 depth, and IMO, they did a decent job assembling 30 decent players plus 6-8 better than decent players. I'm not looking to add more decent players or seeing mini-upgrades from decent to a better version of decent.

We need starpower, and I chose a word with power in it for a reason.

The supporting cast is likely good enough, and besides, even if it's not, in no way shape of form is JH green lighting a massive spending blitz that adds 3-4 star players, this winter. I'd be okay with one super stud add and a couple tweaks or two very significant adds and one minor tweak, but we've been tweaking for way to long. 

Let's get us a serious addition (or two.)

Sato and Abrams would be nice.

Suzuki and Abrams, too.

Sato and Otto Lopez might be possible without losing Arias.

DLC and Morejon would be great.

DLC and Arozarena.

Maybe some unmentioned big bopper will be put on the market.

Get something serious done, Brez!

The other benefit of adding 1 major or two significant is that pushes others down into bench roles and still others down to AAA.

Let's just say we add Otto Lopez and Arozarena, while not losing Arias. We somehow trade Duran & Yoshida. Now, don't just look at the starting line-up, look at the 4 man bench and AAA depth:

1. R Lopez SS

2. L Anthony DH

3. R Arozarena LF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF/ R Mead 2B

6.  R Mead 2B/ L Abreu RF

7. S Rutschman C

8. R Durbin 3B

9. R Rafaela CF

 Bench: Story, Sogard, White, Wong

AAA:

C Garcia/Gasper

1B Romy/Gasper/Brannon/Casas

2B Siegler/Romy/Rodgers

3B Monasterio/Romero

SS Arias/Monasterio

LF Gutoerrez

CF Ward

RF KC

DH Brannon/Casas/Romy

[notin]

9 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Really? I think the only deal that looks really bad right now is the one that sent Sandlin and Hicks away.  And people hated Hicks when he was here. 

There is a contingency that thinks if you gave up anything good,  you lost the deal regardless of what you got back.  Teel and Montgomery are both off to respectable starts, but Crochet is a straight up difference maker…

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

There is a contingency that thinks if you gave up anything good,  you lost the deal regardless of what you got back.  Teel and Montgomery are both off to respectable starts, but Crochet is a straight up difference maker…

It does seem like that.

So much lamenting everytime an ex-Sox player has even just 1 good game or seemingly even just one AB.

The ones who suck are quickly forgotten.

Deals like Perales for Bennett are TBD, but for some reason it's not judges as a success, but the AR and Mead trades were bad, because they were gross overpays, despite not one player we gave up doing anything yet.

The sliding scale is bewildering.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Red will call it a broken little toe.

Why would I do that? Whitlock pitched with a broken leg. On the other hand little A got hurt doing a pinky swear with Mayer, and had to take most of the season off, and had to get out of Boston wink, wink so there would be less distractions, so he could supposedly do his rehab. Not even a good comparison, and missed the boat completely.🙈

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Why would I do that? Whitlock pitched with a broken leg. On the other hand little A got hurt doing a pinky swear with Mayer, and had to take most of the season off, and had to get out of Boston wink, wink so there would be less distractions, so he could supposedly do his rehab. Not even a good comparison, and missed the boat completely.🙈

Circle meet Jerk.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts, and who says no?

Gonzales, Primera & Valera for Otto Lopez and Sandy Alcantara

[JimEd]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV accepts, and who says no?

Gonzales, Primera & Valera for Otto Lopez and Sandy Alcantara

not me.

[UtahSox]

12 minutes ago, JimEd said:

not me.

I’d tie that as well..

[Hugh2]

10 hours ago, notin said:

There is a contingency that thinks if you gave up anything good,  you lost the deal regardless of what you got back.  Teel and Montgomery are both off to respectable starts, but Crochet is a straight up difference maker…

hypothetically, both teams can win a trade.  A win win is a plausible outcome, and I don't think teams think about it in terms of winning the trade and pawning off garbage on another team.  They often know they're giving up something potentially great for a win now asset. 

Sox knew they were getting a difference maker in Crochet, that doesn't mean they were down on Teel or Montgomery. 

[Hugh2]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV accepts, and who says no?

Gonzales, Primera & Valera for Otto Lopez and Sandy Alcantara

Maimi says no all day long.  Not one of those guys is close to being MLB and only one has barely played above A ball.  In an age where teams want MLB or MLB ready talent this isn't going to even come close for a guy who was a top 10 player in the NL last year and has 3 years of team control.  

I think you need to start with at least Wilyer Abreu or Jake Bennett to get them to the table. 

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Maimi says no all day long.  Not one of those guys is close to being MLB and only one has barely played above A ball.  In an age where teams want MLB or MLB ready talent this isn't going to even come close for a guy who was a top 10 player in the NL last year and has 3 years of team control.  

I think you need to start with at least Wilyer Abreu or Jake Bennett to get them to the table. 

Agree 100%.🤭🙈

[Old Red]

43 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

hypothetically, both teams can win a trade.  A win win is a plausible outcome, and I don't think teams think about it in terms of winning the trade and pawning off garbage on another team.  They often know they're giving up something potentially great for a win now asset. 

Sox knew they were getting a difference maker in Crochet, that doesn't mean they were down on Teel or Montgomery. 

Agree. The White Sox got rid of Crochet, because they wasn’t going to be able to pay him, and Boston had to give up one of the original big three to get him. The biggest question on Crochet was he hadn’t pitched many innings yet.

[Hugh2]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree. The White Sox got rid of Crochet, because they wasn’t going to be able to pay him, and Boston had to give up one of the original big three to get him. The biggest question on Crochet was he hadn’t pitched many innings yet.

It will be interesting to see what Crochet will do this year.  In an age in which pitchers seemingly all get injured at least once during their career him missing one season isn't too concerning, but should it be? This could be the beginning of his downfall OR he could bounce back and be arguably the best pitcher in the AL next year just like he was in 2025.  

If Henry had any balls and a willingness to take big hacks he'd just double down on the rotation and go out and pay Skubal...and if you wanna go back a few comments that also makes someone like Bennett open to trade for a premium offensive player. 

If Crochet is healthy and dealing then the 1-2 punch of him and Skubal would be legendary. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

hypothetically, both teams can win a trade.  A win win is a plausible outcome, and I don't think teams think about it in terms of winning the trade and pawning off garbage on another team.  They often know they're giving up something potentially great for a win now asset. 

Sox knew they were getting a difference maker in Crochet, that doesn't mean they were down on Teel or Montgomery. 

Agreed.

It makes me shudder when someone says "Why did the Sox give up on Teel, Montgomery & Meidroth?"

We didn't: we just liked Crochet more and for good reason.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Maimi says no all day long.  Not one of those guys is close to being MLB and only one has barely played above A ball.  In an age where teams want MLB or MLB ready talent this isn't going to even come close for a guy who was a top 10 player in the NL last year and has 3 years of team control.  

I think you need to start with at least Wilyer Abreu or Jake Bennett to get them to the table. 

It would mean MIA is moving to full rebuild mode and like 3-4 years away.

Yes, they say NO.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

It would mean MIA is moving to full rebuild mode and like 3-4 years away.

Yes, they say NO.

Even if they were in full rebuild mode, I think they'd want guys closer.  They can go out and get a teams blue chippers for a guy like Lopez.  Maybe Gonzalez gets there but he's still just a guy who's barely played above A ball.  

If they're in full rebuild mode and Lopez is for sale, some team out there will headline that trade with their versions of Franklin Arias. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree. The White Sox got rid of Crochet, because they wasn’t going to be able to pay him, and Boston had to give up one of the original big three to get him. The biggest question on Crochet was he hadn’t pitched many innings yet.

They did cut their budget by a lot, but they recently upped their CB Tax line by $26M... almost what Crochet's extension comes to, and the deal kicked in year 2026.

Yes, there were concerns about innings, as with many young pitchers and pitchers coming off major surgery.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Even if they were in full rebuild mode, I think they'd want guys closer. 

Indeed.

It seems nobody values the far-away top prospects anymore.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If Henry had any balls and a willingness to take big hacks he'd just double down on the rotation and go out and pay Skubal...and if you wanna go back a few comments that also makes someone like Bennett open to trade for a premium offensive player. 

If Crochet is healthy and dealing then the 1-2 punch of him and Skubal would be legendary. 

They were supposedly bidders on Ohtani and Soto. Why not Skubal?!?!?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It would mean MIA is moving to full rebuild mode and like 3-4 years away.

Yes, they say NO.

If they are 3 years away, they have no use for Abreu TBH. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed.

It seems nobody values the far-away top prospects anymore.

There is too much variance with guys that are further away. It's a better bet as the prospects climb the ladder. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There is too much variance with guys that are further away. It's a better bet as the prospects climb the ladder. 

Yes, that's the obvious reason, but not long ago more GMs were willing to roll the dice.

We have a ton of MLB prospects, but hardly any have value- except Arias.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, that's the obvious reason, but not long ago more GMs were willing to roll the dice.

We have a ton of MLB prospects, but hardly any have value- except Arias.

Miguel Bleis was seen as the next Acuna by some people. He may never reach AAA. You just have to be able to scout your own guys and know who to deal. Seems like DD was able to do that fairly well or at least listened to staff that knew who to hold onto. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I just read Brez said that Triston Casas may play Whiffle ball. NOOOOOO!!!!

Anyone who has ever swung a plastic bat hard and missed a plastic ball whiffling by knows that Casas will soon blow out his elbow and need Tommy John. And then rupture his achilles walking through the mall looking for the men's underwear department.

Then I re-read it: Brez says Tris may play WINTER ball.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Miguel Bleis was seen as the next Acuna by some people. He may never reach AAA. You just have to be able to scout your own guys and know who to deal. Seems like DD was able to do that fairly well or at least listened to staff that knew who to hold onto. 

True, but when Bleis' value was highest, he was too far away.

Current Sox prospects in AA/AAA

1. Arias

2. Gonzalez AA

5. Godbout AA

9. Holobetz 

10. Cespedes AA (will decline in next rankings)

13. Wehunt 

16. Paez 

18. Bastardo

19. Winnay

21. Ziehl

22. Romero

23. Mullins

24. Monegro

27. White

29. Jackson

15 of the top 29 are near or at MLB readiness. Not many have high trade value.