A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[Hugh2]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They were supposedly bidders on Ohtani and Soto. Why not Skubal?!?!?

I'm sure they will be in contact with his agent.  Question becomes how serious they get. 

[Hugh2]

Skubal certainly seems like a pipe dream, but crazier things have happened in our lifetime and it would certainly excite the Boston base. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm sure they will be in contact with his agent.  Question becomes how serious they get. 

6'3" LHP! 🥰

6.4 Extension 😢

 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Skubal certainly seems like a pipe dream, but crazier things have happened in our lifetime and it would certainly excite the Boston base. 

Tarik Skubal, Red Sox... *crowd goes wild*... are interested! *crowd goes mild*

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but when Bleis' value was highest, he was too far away.

That's my point. That's exactly why GM's don't want to trade for guys in the the FCL and A ball. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It would mean MIA is moving to full rebuild mode and like 3-4 years away.

Yes, they say NO.

Miami doesn’t rebuild.  They just build continuously.  They’re on the Sisyphus Plan, slowly rolling that rock towards contention…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's my point. That's exactly why GM's don't want to trade for guys in the the FCL and A ball. 

Yup.

In the old days, sometimes GMs struck gold.

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Miami doesn’t rebuild.  They just build continuously.  They’re on the Sisyphus Plan, slowly rolling that rock towards contention…

Kinda like the Rays, but rarely do they trade for far-aways.

They realized those were too far and in between.

Primera might be one of the highest ranked 19 and under prospects around, and maybe his upside is too high to trade, anyway.

Would MIA listen if we offered Justin Gonzalez and Godbout?

[notin]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Tarik Skubal, Red Sox... *crowd goes wild*... are interested! *crowd goes mild*

The biggest issue wuth Skubal is we already know where he is (re-)signing.

MLBTR ranks King 6th overall and 4th SP.  Trevor Rogers is ahead, and as a LHP probably already has Breslow’s interest.  But last year was the only time he’s topped 125 IP solo me 2021.  Peralta has a solid career, but looked horrendous last year with the Mets.  And if you think King will be overpaid, Peralta has potential to be much more so.
 

I would move on and get King with those choices..

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Kinda like the Rays, but rarely do they trade for far-aways.

They realized those were too far and in between.

Primera might be one of the highest ranked 19 and under prospects around, and maybe his upside is too high to trade, anyway.

Would MIA listen if we offered Justin Gonzalez and Godbout?

If I’m running the Marlins, and I am not (yet), i don’t deal Lopez to Boston without getting Arias in return in the package.  I don’t care about building my prospect list and my AA team.  I need to build a team people will come and see…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

If I’m running the Marlins, and I am not (yet), i don’t deal Lopez to Boston without getting Arias in return in the package.  I don’t care about building my prospect list and my AA team.  I need to build a team people will come and see…

Arias for Lopez and Alcantara?

I'm not sure BOS says yes. Make em take KC's contract, too?

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Miami doesn’t rebuild.  They just build continuously.  They’re on the Sisyphus Plan, slowly rolling that rock towards contention…

Sisyphus is being punished in futile labor. The Marlins have 2 rings and honestly don't care if they win or not. That seems to be the vibe I get from them. Maybe more like Theseus just not bothering to change the colors of the sails on his way back to home after killing the Minotaur and causing his dad to fall into the sea. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Kinda like the Rays, but rarely do they trade for far-aways.

They realized those were too far and in between.

Primera might be one of the highest ranked 19 and under prospects around, and maybe his upside is too high to trade, anyway.

Would MIA listen if we offered Justin Gonzalez and Godbout?

Gonzalez 18 AA G, 733 OPS

Godbout 22 AA G, 973 OPS

Probably not enough of a sample size in AA or close enough for them to really be interested. Neither are top 100 prospects. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Arias for Lopez and Alcantara?

I'm not sure BOS says yes. Make em take KC's contract, too?

They would say no. Alcantara is their franchise player right now. They may end up extending him to have him break all the franchise records. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sisyphus is being punished in futile labor. The Marlins have 2 rings and honestly don't care if they win or not. That seems to be the vibe I get from them. Maybe more like Theseus just not bothering to change the colors of the sails on his way back to home after killing the Minotaur and causing his dad to fall into the sea. 

They haven’t won a ring since 2003.  Since then they’re maybe more like Icarus and they crash hard every time they try to fly too high.

Or not. I’m running out of mythology analogies…

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

They haven’t won a ring since 2003.  Since then they’re maybe more like Icarus and they crash hard every time they try to fly too high.

Or not. I’m running out of mythology analogies…

Have they really tried to fly high? Seems like that would be the Mets TBH.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Have they really tried to fly high? Seems like that would be the Mets TBH.

You’re being too literal.  I meant they got high and tried flying. Probably only on a flight simulator, but still…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Arias for Lopez and Alcantara?

I'm not sure BOS says yes. Make em take KC's contract, too?

You think they want less? 
 

The Sox farm right now isn’t abuzz wuth much MLB-ready stuff…,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

They haven’t won a ring since 2003.  Since then they’re maybe more like Icarus and they crash hard every time they try to fly too high.

Or not. I’m running out of mythology analogies…

 

It's like the myth that America is the name of only one country, and not the name of two entire continents (or three if you say you're from "Central" America) comprising 35 sovereign countries.

So changing the name of a place to the name of the place where it's already in is ridiculously redundant. Everyone can just stay home, where they call home. Until they move to a new home.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

You think they want less? 
 

The Sox farm right now isn’t abuzz wuth much MLB-ready stuff…,

Arias and KC are ML ready.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

You think they want less? 
 

The Sox farm right now isn’t abuzz wuth much MLB-ready stuff…,

They have a lot but not many have much "buzz" to their names.

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They have a lot but not many have much "buzz" to their names.

Just being able to field a AAA roster doesn't mean they have A LOT. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just being able to field a AAA roster doesn't mean they have A LOT. 

"A lot" doesn't imply they are good.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

"A lot" doesn't imply they are good.

If they aren't good, they aren't MLB ready. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Arias for Lopez and Alcantara?

I'm not sure BOS says yes. Make em take KC's contract, too?

If Miami says yes than I'd hesitate and re-evaluate Arias. 

Is it better to keep Arias for a few years to see if he turns into a young Lindor?

Lindor's age 21-25 162-game averages:

6.1 WAR, 108 R, 29 HR, 87 RBI, .288 BA, .840 OPS, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they aren't good, they aren't MLB ready. 

I get that point: every team has a AAA team full of players old enough and experienced enough to be called ML ready, but really are not good enough to ever be called up. The team would trade for someone rather than call many up, if put in a pinch.

My point was involving the rankings of our prospects, and of course one could argue our farm has been depleted to the point where it is no longer deep. So, when I say 9 out of out top 19 and 16 out of the top 29 prospects are AA/AAA, it's not the same as saying that back when we were a high rated system.

I don't see Romero being called up, unless we are decimated by injuries, and he'd probably last 2 days, while we found a trade to fill the slot. I'm not trying to pump up our farm or prospects by pointing out this aspect.

I could see us trading a bunch of them. (Guys like Brannon and Garcia might make the 40, and they are not even top 30, right now, so in other ways, one can say we have a deep farm. Deep in "meh" is not a gold star prop up.

Earlier, I made a point about looking hard to make 2 or 3 for one trades, and that extends beyond just players needed to be on the 40. My point is that we have spend years building up deep meh, and many teams are lacking in meh depth, and might like the idea of adding 3, in hopes one does okay, since the 3 are better than the 3 they have slotted in the same area. Move from quantity to quality in the simplified position I hold.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If Miami says yes than I'd hesitate and re-evaluate Arias. 

Is it better to keep Arias for a few years to see if he turns into a young Lindor?

Lindor's age 21-25 162-game averages:

6.1 WAR, 108 R, 29 HR, 87 RBI, .288 BA, .840 OPS, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers

I really like Arias. I think he is so good, he can help land us a proven stud.

I see a now to 2030 window (and it could have been 2026, too, had we done more,) to make moves to get us a ring. Arias may be more about year 2-7. I want us to be good beyond 2030, too, but there are time you have to go all in. That time is now.

We already through many eggs into the 2-4 year window with recent trades, so why not one more biggie?

Add a big signing, too.

[mvp 78]

46 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If Miami says yes than I'd hesitate and re-evaluate Arias. 

Is it better to keep Arias for a few years to see if he turns into a young Lindor?

Lindor's age 21-25 162-game averages:

6.1 WAR, 108 R, 29 HR, 87 RBI, .288 BA, .840 OPS, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers

He's not Lindor. He could be Otto Lopez though and soon. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Arias. I think he is so good, he can help land us a proven stud.

I see a now to 2030 window (and it could have been 2026, too, had we done more,) to make moves to get us a ring. Arias may be more about year 2-7. I want us to be good beyond 2030, too, but there are time you have to go all in. That time is now.

We already through many eggs into the 2-4 year window with recent trades, so why not one more biggie?

Add a big signing, too.

This team seems like it's treading water for '27 with Breslow's comments. There will be a lot of $$$ coming off the books this offseason: Chapman, Story, Masa, Rutschman, Houck, Oviedo and maybe Contreras. If they need to take their lumps with Arias in '27 so that he can be a solid starter in '28 and beyond, they should just do that. There's value in having a cheap contract on the books at a starting position. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

This team seems like it's treading water for '27 with Breslow's comments. There will be a lot of $$$ coming off the books this offseason: Chapman, Story, Masa, Rutschman, Houck, Oviedo and maybe Contreras. If they need to take their lumps with Arias in '27 so that he can be a solid starter in '28 and beyond, they should just do that. There's value in having a cheap contract on the books at a starting position. 

I can see that reasoning. I'm fine keeping Arias, as long as we make one big signing and one significant trade.

I doubt we do even one.