A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

The Ghost of Yoshida is not even a ghost yet, but guys like Murakami & Okamoto may have restored some confidence in Japanese batters.

Sato would be a gamble, but even years later, that's a lower AAV than Masa.

Is $25M x 4 less of a gamble for  Arozarena?

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Ghost of Yoshida is not even a ghost yet, but guys like Murakami & Okamoto may have restored some confidence in Japanese batters.

Sato would be a gamble, but even years later, that's a lower AAV than Masa.

Is $25M x 4 less of a gamble for  Arozarena?

I'd bet more WAR/$$$ for Sato, with more flexibility.

[UtahSox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Ghost of Yoshida is not even a ghost yet, but guys like Murakami & Okamoto may have restored some confidence in Japanese batters.

Sato would be a gamble, but even years later, that's a lower AAV than Masa.

Is $25M x 4 less of a gamble for  Arozarena?

I’d prefer Arozarena because of his OBP, and he’s always seemed to give you quality at-bats. That’s just my impression—I don’t have data to back that part up. What I can’t figure out is how the OF/DH situation fits together.

Is Mead a second baseman in 2027? If so, what do we do with Story when arias comes up?

If Mead eventually becomes the DH, then Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu all need to play the field. At that point, adding another outfielder seems like a waste of capital unless another move is coming.

This is one of the hardest rosters I’ve ever tried to keep straight. It feels like we’re going to need some difficult conversations about roles or make a shocking trade involving a player people really like.

The name that keeps coming to mind is Wilyer Abreu. He’s unbelievable defensively, but could we use his trade value to acquire a better offensive player elsewhere, then replace his offensive production in the outfield through free agency with someone like Trent Grisham?

The other name I keep batting around is Caleb Durbin. Could his trade value help us land a better bat right now? I like what he brings defensively, but turning that value into a meaningful offensive upgrade could help this team tremendously.

I’m not saying we should move either guy just to make a move. I’m trying to figure out how we improve the offense while making all these positions and roles fit.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, UtahSox said:

The name that keeps coming to mind is Wilyer Abreu. He’s unbelievable defensively, but could we use his trade value to acquire a better offensive player elsewhere, then replace his offensive production in the outfield through free agency with someone like Trent Grisham?

The other name I keep batting around is Caleb Durbin. Could his trade value help us land a better bat right now? I like what he brings defensively, but turning that value into a meaningful offensive upgrade could help this team tremendously.

I’m not saying we should move either guy just to make a move. I’m trying to figure out how we improve the offense while making all these positions and roles fit.

I'm not as focused on the budget or roster openings because Breslow simply has to improve the offense if the Red Sox want to improve their chances.

And it's not just posters saying this over and over for over a year now; it's batting authorities like David Ortiz and Willson Contreras.

The difference this offseason to caution against is automatically pencilling in Roman Anthony as one of the main men. Not after an unreliable season and an entire calendar year of dealing with injuries. With a guy like that, we have no idea how healed or how good or definitely how much we can expect.

Build the batting order accordingly. If Roman is a stud, that's a bonus (which is how it always should be when a 22-year old makes the majors). So there's no problem upgrading the outfield with a legit bat, especially after the demise of Duran. Jahmai Jones ain't it.

Abreu will only be traded as part of a package for a superstar -- if any truly are available. Safe to say he'll be back in RF.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not as focused on the budget or roster openings because Breslow simply has to improve the offense if the Red Sox want to improve their chances.

And it's not just posters saying this over and over for over a year now; it's batting authorities like David Ortiz and Willson Contreras.

The difference this offseason to caution against is automatically pencilling in Roman Anthony as one of main men. Not after an unreliable season and an entire calendar year of dealing with injuries. With a guy like that, we have no idea how healed or how good or definitely how much we can expect.

Build the batting order accordingly. If Roman is a stud, that's a bonus (which is how it always should be when a 22-year old makes the majors). So there's no problem upgrading the outfield with a legit bat, especially after the demise of Duran. Jahmai Jones ain't it.

Abreu will only be traded as part of a package for a superstar -- if any truly are available. Safe to say he'll be back in RF.

Agree 100% on little A. First of all if he stays healthy, and secondly breaks out it’s a bonus, but i wouldn’t necessarily have him locked into the leadoff spot, and as you say count on him to be a main bat. More work still needs to be done with getting bats.

 

[southpaw777]

18 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

He's Japanese, so I don't know, but that sounds way cheap.

Which is why I’d take that chance. It wouldn’t clog up the payroll like Story’s does. I imagine he’s healthier and can hit better so I’m good.. The price may be because I hear his glove is all but useless. Heard he plays the corners, but at the teams own risk…we have a spot at DH. If we can unload Yoshida

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, UtahSox said:

I’d prefer Arozarena because of his OBP, and he’s always seemed to give you quality at-bats. That’s just my impression—I don’t have data to back that part up. What I can’t figure out is how the OF/DH situation fits together.

Is Mead a second baseman in 2027? If so, what do we do with Story when arias comes up?

If Mead eventually becomes the DH, then Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu all need to play the field. At that point, adding another outfielder seems like a waste of capital unless another move is coming.

This is one of the hardest rosters I’ve ever tried to keep straight. It feels like we’re going to need some difficult conversations about roles or make a shocking trade involving a player people really like.

The name that keeps coming to mind is Wilyer Abreu. He’s unbelievable defensively, but could we use his trade value to acquire a better offensive player elsewhere, then replace his offensive production in the outfield through free agency with someone like Trent Grisham?

The other name I keep batting around is Caleb Durbin. Could his trade value help us land a better bat right now? I like what he brings defensively, but turning that value into a meaningful offensive upgrade could help this team tremendously.

I’m not saying we should move either guy just to make a move. I’m trying to figure out how we improve the offense while making all these positions and roles fit.

There is the idea of Mead/Story or Anthony/LF being the DH. We don't need both positions filled- just one.

I'd try to trade Story, but probably can't.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

Which is why I’d take that chance. It wouldn’t clog up the payroll like Story’s does. I imagine he’s healthier and can hit better so I’m good.. The price may be because I hear his glove is all but useless. Heard he plays the corners, but at the teams own risk…we have a spot at DH. If we can unload Yoshida

Since Yoshida has just 1 year left, maybe it will be easier to spend at DH.

It might be easier to trade Masa, too. (If we can "save" $3-5M by dealing him, I'd do it, otherwise, he has options, so stash him in AAA.)

I'm not sure I'd trade Story, until we see what Arias looks like, and beware of fast starts like KC's.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, UtahSox said:

The name that keeps coming to mind is Wilyer Abreu. He’s unbelievable defensively, but could we use his trade value to acquire a better offensive player elsewhere, then replace his offensive production in the outfield through free agency with someone like Trent Grisham?

Abreu had a .773 and Grisham had a .703.  In order to improve elsewhere, you'd need to improve that position by 70 points.  You'd have to be targeting someone like Yordie to get that type of upgrade.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

There is the idea of Mead/Story or Anthony/LF being the DH. We don't need both positions filled- just one.

I'd try to trade Story, but probably can't.

I seriously doubt it.  If Arias gets promoted, it is only because Story is playing badly.  I see very little chance that Story could play his way off of SS, but hit anywhere near enough to be a DH.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I seriously doubt it.  If Arias gets promoted, it is only because Story is playing badly.  I see very little chance that Story could play his way off of SS, but hit anywhere near enough to be a DH.

Story is most likely playing his way onto the IL. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure I'd trade Story, until we see what Arias looks like, and beware of fast starts like KC's.

Big difference in Arias and Campbell that should shut down any further comparisons about what Franklin does with the bat:

Arias' DEFENSE is elite -- Soft quick hands and a solid accurate arm don't go into slumps.

A guy who was just named the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues is absolutely ready for the majors, especially on a team whose starting SS has one of the weakest wings in fastfood chicken joints.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Big difference in Arias and Campbell that should shut down any further comparisons about what Franklin does with the bat:

Arias' DEFENSE is elite -- Soft quick hands and a solid accurate arm don't go into slumps.

A guy who was just named the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues is absolutely ready for the majors, especially on a team whose starting SS has one of the weakest wings in fastfood chicken joints.

I totally agree, but I think they named Bobby Dee D Player of the Year once, too.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Big difference in Arias and Campbell that should shut down any further comparisons about what Franklin does with the bat:

Arias' DEFENSE is elite -- Soft quick hands and a solid accurate arm don't go into slumps.

A guy who was just named the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues is absolutely ready for the majors, especially on a team whose starting SS has one of the weakest wings in fastfood chicken joints.

If they made him the everyday SS and hit him 9th, it'd be fine. The offense would probably be better off losing Story's swing and miss anyway. 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story is most likely playing his way onto the IL. 

Yes, of if he starts slowly again, to a bench role, especially if Arias is still raking the minors.

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I totally agree, but I think they named Bobby Dee D Player of the Year once, too.

This wasn't an organizational award, it was an MiLB-wide award. 

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they made him the everyday SS and hit him 9th, it'd be fine. The offense would probably be better off losing Story's swing and miss anyway. 

The one glimmer of hope on Story is his second half batting in 2025.

I agree, just go with Arias.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This wasn't an organizational award, it was an MiLB-wide award. 

Yes, my bad.

[Tedballgame]

All this talk about 2027 is pure fantasy because there will not be baseball in 2027. The lockout will last a long time until the players agree to some sort of salary cap. Book it, Dano!

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, my bad.

That doesn't mean I think he'll win an MLB GG award at SS! He's an above average glove at SS, but not an elite glove. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

All this talk about 2027 is pure fantasy because there will not be baseball in 2027. The lockout will last a long time until the players agree to some sort of salary cap. Book it, Dano!

Owners already made a concession to move the cap back a year before negotiations even started. 

No cap in this CBA. Very obvious call to me. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

All this talk about 2027 is pure fantasy because there will not be baseball in 2027. The lockout will last a long time until the players agree to some sort of salary cap. Book it, Dano!

If the owners really, truly wanted a salary cap, certain teams could simply self-impose their own budgets.

Large market teams seem oblivious to payroll while adding big star mega-contract after big star mega-contract.  Small market teams know the risk in adding a salary floor runs the risk of forcing them to spend more and potentially cut into their revenue-sharing (which many of them subsist on).  I doubt the Dodgers or Mets really want one.
 

A salary cap is a distractor - a negotiation point the owners will readily surrender in order to gain some other item on the table.

Both sides are well aware that cancelling the season could be deadly to their popularity…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Abreu had a .773 and Grisham had a .703.  In order to improve elsewhere, you'd need to improve that position by 70 points.  You'd have to be targeting someone like Yordie to get that type of upgrade.

One day you will realize that a .850 is more valuable to a .775 guy than a .775 guy is to a .700 guy.  I mean manybe not becaus your 80+, but you should realize that elite production warrants and is worth a premium due to replicability and rareness.  

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That doesn't mean I think he'll win an MLB GG award at SS! He's an above average glove at SS, but not an elite glove. 

It looks that way, but sometimes we get surprised once these kids get to the bigs (to the good or bad.)

soxprospects.com says...

Field: Smooth actions and soft hands. Has shown solid range and is comfortable playing all angles when charging the ball. Confident fielder who can make difficult plays look closer to routine. Athleticism plays better in the field and lack of foot speed does not show. Consistent fielder with a good chance to stick at shortstop. Potential above-average defender.

 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Big difference in Arias and Campbell that should shut down any further comparisons about what Franklin does with the bat:

Arias' DEFENSE is elite -- Soft quick hands and a solid accurate arm don't go into slumps.

A guy who was just named the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues is absolutely ready for the majors, especially on a team whose starting SS has one of the weakest wings in fastfood chicken joints.

who was playing short stop when we were winning all those games?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If they made him the everyday SS and hit him 9th, it'd be fine. The offense would probably be better off losing Story's swing and miss anyway. 

The only misses are the swings you dont take.  Get that bat off ur shoulders!

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That doesn't mean I think he'll win an MLB GG award at SS! He's an above average glove at SS, but not an elite glove. 

The difference between those 2 things is incredibly overrated.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

One day you will realize that a .850 is more valuable to a .775 guy than a .775 guy is to a .700 guy.  I mean manybe not becaus your 80+, but you should realize that elite production warrants and is worth a premium due to replicability and rareness.  

.850 is better than .775 and deserves more money, but the comp value is idential:

850>.775 is equal to .775>.700.

The same value is added to the team, if all other factors are the same.

.700 to .775 is actually a great percentage gain. (+10.7% gain)

.775 to .850 is a 9.7% improvement.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

who was playing short stop when we were winning all those games?

The D guy- Cheng

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It looks that way, but sometimes we get surprised once these kids get to the bigs (to the good or bad.)

soxprospects.com says...

Field: Smooth actions and soft hands. Has shown solid range and is comfortable playing all angles when charging the ball. Confident fielder who can make difficult plays look closer to routine. Athleticism plays better in the field and lack of foot speed does not show. Consistent fielder with a good chance to stick at shortstop. Potential above-average defender.

 

Maybe he ticks up more? He'd have to put in a lot of work and it feels like that doesn't typically happen defensively at the bigs very often.