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Posted

No introduction needed so here it goes:

Catcher-D 

1st Base-B

2nd Base-C

Shortstop-D

3rd Base=F

LF-Duran-F

CF-Raefael-C+

RF- Abreu- B+

SP- B-

Bullpen-B-

Community Moderator
Posted

Contreras continues to hit dingers and play great defense. He's been way better than a B.

Rafaela has been having his best offensive season so far. How is that a C+?

Giving 3b an F, but SS is a D is wild. Is this just an offensive rating? Durbin -0.1 fWAR. Story -0.4 fWAR. At least Durbin can field the position. 

C should be higher than D. They are 12th overall in fWAR. Narvaez has been very good defensively and Wong stopped being a train wreck offensively.

 

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Rotation and bullpen botj got a B-.  That seems odd.  Like they’ve both pitched equally well and one isn’t blowing leads for the other…

Community Moderator
Posted
7 minutes ago, notin said:

Rotation and bullpen botj got a B-.  That seems odd.  Like they’ve both pitched equally well and one isn’t blowing leads for the other…

The bullpen is 11th in fWAR and has been ok enough. The problem is that early on the starters weren't going long enough. Every bullpen gives up a lead or two (just not when playing the Sox). 

The starters have been great lately, but Bello really skews the overall numbers down (bottom third in MLB). Even in a small sample of just May, they are 17th in fWAR.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The bullpen is 11th in fWAR and has been ok enough. The problem is that early on the starters weren't going long enough. Every bullpen gives up a lead or two (just not when playing the Sox). 

The starters have been great lately, but Bello really skews the overall numbers down (bottom third in MLB). Even in a small sample of just May, they are 17th in fWAR.

So Bello’s rotation numbers bring that grade down while his bullpen numbers bring that grade up?  
 

Interesting…

Community Moderator
Posted
15 minutes ago, notin said:

So Bello’s rotation numbers bring that grade down while his bullpen numbers bring that grade up?  
 

Interesting…

Seems like Bello has found his calling. 

Community Moderator
Posted

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-going-through-it/

For his whole career up to this point, he has lived in the low 30-degree range; last year, it was 33 degrees. This year, his arm angle is up to 42 degrees...

So whether the arm angle change is the cause of Bello’s woes or a symptom of some larger systemic issue, the real problem is he’s lost about a mile an hour of velocity this year, and his fastballs — all three of them — are getting crushed...

But he is also leaving more hittable changeups over the heart of the plate. Last year, only 9.5% of his changeups ended up in Statcast’s Heart zone. This year, that’s up to 22.7%. And it gets worse when you look at his four-seamer.

Truth be told, Bello’s four-seamer has never been great; it’s got average velocity and dead-zone movement. There’s a reason he throws mostly sinkers. But his four-seamer is still useful as a chase pitch and to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker. Usually, Bello throws the fastball up in the zone, or even above it....

This year, Bello’s either totally lost his fastball command or he’s throwing high on purpose. Only 31.8% of his four-seamers have been in the strike zone this year, and if that’s a deliberate strategy, it is super not working...

In other words, Bello’s four-seamer has led to seven hits and three outs this season, and one of those outs was on purpose. This is the pitch whose reintroduction has arguably made him more effective, because the cutter wasn’t working either. He does get a decent amount of in-zone whiffs with his cutter, but when he’s not locating the pitch well, he’s getting torched.

You see the problem. He’s already given up as many home runs on cutters in 2026 as he did in all of 2025.

There are lots of ways to get hitters out consistently, but generally a pitcher needs at least one of velocity and command, and Bello has been bleeding both this year. 

 

Posted
3 hours ago, notin said:

Rotation and bullpen botj got a B-.  That seems odd.  Like they’ve both pitched equally well and one isn’t blowing leads for the other…

Bullpen gets a Blow Minus, and the rotation gets a Be Positive.

There's always that one challenging kid in class like Bello who diverts 90% of the teacher's time to attempt to "reengage" him, thus robbing all the other students of instructional opportunities in an otherwise a positive learning environment.

At least during assessments, Bello gets extended time and setting... with no pitch counts.

Community Moderator
Posted
34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DH: D-

Red Sox

11th in H

6th in BB

14th in fWAR

6th in OBP

15th wOBA

19th in wRC+

19th in OPS

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-going-through-it/

For his whole career up to this point, he has lived in the low 30-degree range; last year, it was 33 degrees. This year, his arm angle is up to 42 degrees...

So whether the arm angle change is the cause of Bello’s woes or a symptom of some larger systemic issue, the real problem is he’s lost about a mile an hour of velocity this year, and his fastballs — all three of them — are getting crushed...

But he is also leaving more hittable changeups over the heart of the plate. Last year, only 9.5% of his changeups ended up in Statcast’s Heart zone. This year, that’s up to 22.7%. And it gets worse when you look at his four-seamer.

Truth be told, Bello’s four-seamer has never been great; it’s got average velocity and dead-zone movement. There’s a reason he throws mostly sinkers. But his four-seamer is still useful as a chase pitch and to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker. Usually, Bello throws the fastball up in the zone, or even above it....

This year, Bello’s either totally lost his fastball command or he’s throwing high on purpose. Only 31.8% of his four-seamers have been in the strike zone this year, and if that’s a deliberate strategy, it is super not working...

In other words, Bello’s four-seamer has led to seven hits and three outs this season, and one of those outs was on purpose. This is the pitch whose reintroduction has arguably made him more effective, because the cutter wasn’t working either. He does get a decent amount of in-zone whiffs with his cutter, but when he’s not locating the pitch well, he’s getting torched.

You see the problem. He’s already given up as many home runs on cutters in 2026 as he did in all of 2025.

There are lots of ways to get hitters out consistently, but generally a pitcher needs at least one of velocity and command, and Bello has been bleeding both this year. 

 

… unless he is acting as a double agent

Verified Member
Posted
22 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

No introduction needed so here it goes:

Catcher-D 

1st Base-B

2nd Base-C

Shortstop-D

3rd Base=F

LF-Duran-F

CF-Raefael-C+

RF- Abreu- B+

SP- B-

Bullpen-B-

Is this both offense and defense? 
C- C
1b - agree but could go to A soon. Both the bat and glove have been solid.

2b - C  Mayer has been good D there. Hopefully the bat catches up. A move back to SS is coming soon.

SS - F. Horrible D and bat

3b - C - solid D no bat 

OF - overall B - with Duran bringing it down the most.

SP - B-  would be a B+ if it weren’t for injuries and Bello

RP - B-  

we agree on most or are close. They are a 500 mediocre team and have been for 4-5 years

 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox

11th in H

6th in BB

14th in fWAR

6th in OBP

15th wOBA

19th in wRC+

19th in OPS

Our DH defense is atrocious! LOL.

Okay, make it a "C-"

  • 2 weeks later...
Verified Member
Posted

SP: B+. Early, Tolle, Suarez, Gray

RP: C-  Chapman, Whitlock....

C: D-

1B: C+

2B: F

SS: F

3B: F

LF: D

CF: C

RF: B

DH: F

Overall pitching B-

Overall hitting D-

Verified Member
Posted
On 5/19/2026 at 10:52 AM, mvp 78 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-going-through-it/

For his whole career up to this point, he has lived in the low 30-degree range; last year, it was 33 degrees. This year, his arm angle is up to 42 degrees...

So whether the arm angle change is the cause of Bello’s woes or a symptom of some larger systemic issue, the real problem is he’s lost about a mile an hour of velocity this year, and his fastballs — all three of them — are getting crushed...

But he is also leaving more hittable changeups over the heart of the plate. Last year, only 9.5% of his changeups ended up in Statcast’s Heart zone. This year, that’s up to 22.7%. And it gets worse when you look at his four-seamer.

Truth be told, Bello’s four-seamer has never been great; it’s got average velocity and dead-zone movement. There’s a reason he throws mostly sinkers. But his four-seamer is still useful as a chase pitch and to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker. Usually, Bello throws the fastball up in the zone, or even above it....

This year, Bello’s either totally lost his fastball command or he’s throwing high on purpose. Only 31.8% of his four-seamers have been in the strike zone this year, and if that’s a deliberate strategy, it is super not working...

In other words, Bello’s four-seamer has led to seven hits and three outs this season, and one of those outs was on purpose. This is the pitch whose reintroduction has arguably made him more effective, because the cutter wasn’t working either. He does get a decent amount of in-zone whiffs with his cutter, but when he’s not locating the pitch well, he’s getting torched.

You see the problem. He’s already given up as many home runs on cutters in 2026 as he did in all of 2025.

There are lots of ways to get hitters out consistently, but generally a pitcher needs at least one of velocity and command, and Bello has been bleeding both this year. 

 

I imagine one thing that's screwing B up is listening to his  head churn out crap like this!   

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

SP: B+. Early, Tolle, Suarez, Gray

RP: C-  Chapman, Whitlock....

C: D-

1B: C+

2B: F

SS: F

3B: F

LF: D

CF: C

RF: B

DH: F

Overall pitching B-

Overall hitting D-

The Sox have the 6th best 1B fWAR, and Contreras is 4th or 5th in OPS and 4th or 5th on defense. That's not C+.

Rafaela in CF is better than you think.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have the 6th best 1B fWAR, and Contreras is 4th or 5th in OPS and 4th or 5th on defense. That's not C+.

Rafaela in CF is better than you think.

SS since IKF took over is looking good, too, with his .937 OPS over his last 9 games.  I told you people he’s a good player…

Old-Timey Member
Posted
40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have the 6th best 1B fWAR, and Contreras is 4th or 5th in OPS and 4th or 5th on defense. That's not C+.

Rafaela in CF is better than you think.

I agree. Give Con Man a B, and RAF Man a C+. RAF Man has not been as good in CF this year.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
24 minutes ago, notin said:

SS since IKF took over is looking good, too, with his .937 OPS over his last 9 games.  I told you people he’s a good player…

I don't hear the IKF bashing anymore.

I wish we could say the same about Durbin. 3 for his last 8 is not even a drop in the bucket as .479 to .505 is hardly Wow-worthy.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
32 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree. Give Con Man a B, and RAF Man a C+. RAF Man has not been as good in CF this year.

Since you don’t watch games and stats don’t bear this out, I’m assuming some EEI talking brain cell is saying this…

Old-Timey Member
Posted
12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't hear the IKF bashing anymore.

I wish we could say the same about Durbin. 3 for his last 8 is not even a drop in the bucket as .479 to .505 is hardly Wow-worthy.

In two weeks when he settles in to his .260/.310/.340 self, maybe it resumes…

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Here is a position by position look at the Sox player in 2026. I'm going by 100+ PAs sample sizes (31 players) for Catchers and 120+ PAs (around 30-40 players) for the others.

Catcher: Narvaez is 16th in fWAR and 20th in OPS. (-1 DRS) By the numbers only maybe C-/D+

1B: Contreras is 5th in fWAR and 5th in OPS. (4th in DRS) I'd say A- due to top 5 on O & D.

2B: Mayer is 24th and 26th. (11th in DRS) I'd say D.

3B: Durbin is 21st and 27th. (4th in DRS) His D does not save him from a D-.

SS: Story is 28th and 26th. (26th in DRS) Gotta say F.

LF: Duran is 12th and 16th. (12th in DRS & Anthony 4th in DRS.) Duran gets a C based on #s.

CF: Rafaela is 6th and 12th. (moved up to 3rd in DRA & OAA) Ceddanne gets an A-.

RF: Abreu is 5th and 11th. (1st in DRA at 12, which is double the 3rd guy!) A for sure.

DH: Anthony & Yoshida do not have enough PAs, but would be near the bottom. Grade: F

Old-Timey Member
Posted
16 minutes ago, notin said:

Since you don’t watch games and stats don’t bear this out, I’m assuming some EEI talking brain cell is saying this…

He did struggle early, so the Sox fans on Ole Red's corner were probably talkin some bad Sh** about his defense slipping.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
13 minutes ago, notin said:

In two weeks when he settles in to his .260/.310/.340 self, maybe it resumes…

I think expectations were .640 to .680ish and very good defense at a few positions.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
6 hours ago, notin said:

Since you don’t watch games and stats don’t bear this out, I’m assuming some EEI talking brain cell is saying this…

Is that what you are calling MVP?🤔

Old-Timey Member
Posted
14 hours ago, Old Red said:

Is that what you are calling MVP?🤔

Oh god.  You’re getting data from a Floridian!?!?

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

Oh god.  You’re getting data from a Floridian!?!?

It’s by default. He’s the only one I trust on here.🤫

Old-Timey Member
Posted
5 hours ago, Old Red said:

It’s by default. He’s the only one I trust on here.🤫

Weird.  Hes the deepest analytics guy on here…

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