Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

This option does appear to be an obligation.

Occasionally vesting criteria does trigger a player option or a team option.  Not unheard of, but doesn’t appear to be the case here.  Both sides apparently agreed this one year deal becomes a two year deal at 40 IP.  And that makes sense, since Chapman is 38 years old and before this, hasn’t had a multi-year deal in years.

Hes still worth exploring deals, and the option could be within a short distance of vesting by the deadline, which might make him a more attractive target.  Or a lesser one given his age…

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapman-re-ups-with-the-red-sox/

 

According to fangraphs, you appear to be correct. 

My bad everyone. 

Still, I think you're right that a deal is worth exploring.  2027 may be a short year, and Chapman will be a 39 year old.  If  team wants to give us an arm and a leg for him now it should still be explored. 

[notin]

17 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

SIX is the actual number of starting positions that we listed as woeful in the batting order: C, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, DH.

I know it's unreasonable to expect that many replacements to have consistent pop (beyond the warning track) or even swing righty to take advantage of the home park where the Red Sox can't win this year...

... but expecting just one new guy to make that much difference is just as unreasonable; the pitching and D have been good, but come on -- I'm not looking at just eeking into a Wild Card but what has been traditionally needed on legit Boston World Series contenders.

Check out the individual OPS+ leaders for the '18, '13, '07 and '04 (even '03) squads. Seems like they all had five or six batters pushing 120+ -- or 20% above average, which bb-ref considers All-Star quality.

The '26ers have only Contreras and Rafaela over 120 OPS+. "Wanted: three or four batters who reach base more than usual and don't often stop at first base." Better plan on running that ad in the MLB Classifieds through the next two winters and deadlines at least...

Some of those players are already in Boston however.

Catcher is a position where offense is often treated as a bonus, since good all-around catchers are tough to come by and defense is really the priority.  Ive thrown out Sean Murphy as a target, since he had some pop and is a very good catcher relegated to backup duty.  He’s currently on the IL right now.  Atlanta needs help at SP and SS.  While Story would at least represent a cost-savings, he doesn’t necessarily represent a solution at SS due to his own inability to stay healthy.  Plus he is a RHH either way some pop, which is what Boston does need. (No way in hell do you trade Mayer for Murphy.)

The infield overall hasn’t produced.  Story has been out after finally realizing he cannot play with a hernia.  Mayer could be sent down once he returns, but Story isn’t much of a SS right now.  Durbin isn’t going anywhere and has been hitting better after a dreadful start.  But an INF with some pop would make sense if they demote Mayer.

LF/DH they have some internal options.  Certainly Anthony fills one spot.  Duran is still in Boston for the time being, and has shown over the last two seasons he is much better than what we’ve seen this year.  But he is also a candidate to be moved.  Triston Casas isn’t dead yet, and poses a dilemma.  On one hand, he’s been very fragile and missed the bulk of the last 2.5 seasons.  On the other, he has shown he can hit.  Ultimately he will be a tough decision come non-tender time.

Barring an upgrade at catcher - maybe a Mayer-Dalton Rushing trade - maybe we only see a new DH and one INF?   I don’t see the Sox adding so many new starting  bats.  Thats a massive turnover…

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

They gave him a contract extension in season not during FA. 

Either way it goes nothing is stopping him from resigning with the Red Sox. If you trade him you have to replace him, which isn’t so easy to do. The Red Sox lucked out with Chapman who wasn’t signed to be the closer in the first place, and nothing more than a BP piece.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Either way it goes nothing is stopping him from resigning with the Red Sox. If you trade him you have to replace him, which isn’t so easy to do. The Red Sox lucked out with Chapman who wasn’t signed to be the closer in the first place, and nothing more than a BP piece.

If they deal him and he pitches 19.1 IP for his new team, he will not be available to re-sign with Boston.  So, yes, something might be stopping him…

[Old Red]

Just now, notin said:

Some of those players are already in Boston however.

Catcher is a position where offense is oftener treated as a bonus, since good all-around catchers are tough to come by and defense is really the priority.  Ive thrown out Sean Murphy as a target, since he had some pop and is a very good catcher relegated to backup duty.  He’s currently on the IL right now.  Atlanta needs help at SP and SS.  While Story would at least represent a cost-savings, he doesn’t necessarily represent a solution at SS due to his own inability to stay healthy.  Plus he is a RHH either way some pop, which is what Boston does need. (No way in hell do you trade Mayer for Murphy.)

The infield overall hasn’t produced.  Story has been out after finally realizing he cannot play with a hernia.  Mayer could be sent down once he returns, but Story isn’t much of a SS right now.  Durbin isn’t going anywhere and has been hitting Breyer after a dreadful start.  But an INF with some pop would make sense if they demote Mayer.

LF/DH they have some internal options.  Certainly Anthony fills one spot.  Duran is still in Boston for the time being, and has shown over the last two seasons he is much better than what we’ve seen this year.  But he is also a candidate to be moved.  Triston Casas isn’t dead yet, and poses a dilemma.  On one hand, he’s been very fragile and missed the bulk of the last 2.5 seasons.  On the other, he has shown he can hit.  Ultimately he will be a tough decision come non-tender time.

Barring an upgrade at catcher - maybe a Mayer-Dalton Rushing trade - maybe we only see a new DH and one INF?   I don’t see the Sox adding so many new starting  bats.  Thats a massive turnover…

Yes you’ve thrown up Sean Murphy, and his contract.🤭

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

If they deal him and he pitches 19.1 IP for his new team, he will not be available to re-sign with Boston.  So, yes, something might be stopping him…

That’s fully understood.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes you’ve thrown up Sean Murphy, and his contract.🤭

And you have once again regurgitated your involvement in the reason Chapman was signed…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapman-re-ups-with-the-red-sox/

 

According to fangraphs, you appear to be correct. 

My bad everyone. 

Still, I think you're right that a deal is worth exploring.  2027 may be a short year, and Chapman will be a 39 year old.  If  team wants to give us an arm and a leg for him now it should still be explored. 

Most definitely explore the options, barring playing .750 baseball between now and August…

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

And you have once again regurgitated your involvement in the reason Chapman was signed…

HUH? BIG difference. Chapman actually happened. The Red Sox spending $15M on a catcher on the down side isn’t happening.🤭

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I wouldn't. But I do wonder if he's hurt. 

YOu don't go from having some of the best range in baseball to having the range of "sylvester stallone" in one year from normal decline.  He's battling something. 

If that's something he can easily recover from and that $150 million would be paid down would I consider it? yes

That's the whole thing.  Without knowing how much SF is willing to pay down, it's impossible to assess the chances of a trade.  His 8 HRs in his past 24 games suggest that he should continue to hit at his historical rate.  Paying the dude to age 35 is an issue, but that's what SF has to deal with.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

HUH? BIG difference. Chapman actually happened. The Red Sox spending $15M on a catcher on the down side isn’t happening.🤭

No reason not to.  For some reason (not necessarily you) RS fans think that signing players until they are 35-36-37 is good business.  But acquiring a player whose contract expires prior to that age is not.

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No reason not to.  For some reason (not necessarily you) RS fans think that signing players until they are 35-36-37 is good business.  But acquiring a player whose contract expires prior to that age is not.

Case by case basis for me.

[moonslav59]

If we sell, these have to be some players we shop:

EST $$$ owed at deadline(1/3 of 2026)

$7M Gray (mutual option on 2027)

$4M Chapman (with $13M mutual option for '27)

$4M Sandoval (Any takers? LMAO)

$3M Duran (2 more arbs)

$2M IKF

$400K Wong (2 more arbs)

$300K Coulombe

___________________

The DUMPS (Lucky to find a trade partner)

$38M Story '26-'27 (including $5M buyout for '28)

$24M Yoshida '26-'27

____________________

Hmmm....

$59M KC '26-32 w 2 option years ($4M buyout '33)

$48M Bello '26-'28 + $1M buyout for '30

$3M Whitlock ($8.25M option for '27 & $10.5 for '28) 

 

 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Barring an upgrade at catcher - maybe a Mayer-Dalton Rushing trade - maybe we only see a new DH and one INF?   I don’t see the Sox adding so many new starting  bats.  Thats a massive turnover…

Why are the Dodgers giving up their starting Catcher? Is it because he rubs Ohtani the wrong way and seems like an absolute tool?

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's the whole thing.  Without knowing how much SF is willing to pay down, it's impossible to assess the chances of a trade.  His 8 HRs in his past 24 games suggest that he should continue to hit at his historical rate.  Paying the dude to age 35 is an issue, but that's what SF has to deal with.

That's the thing, SF doesn't believe they'll get enough out of a trade to make it worth their while. Adames is going nowhere per Rosenthal. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Why are the Dodgers giving up their starting Catcher? Is it because he rubs Ohtani the wrong way and seems like an absolute tool?

I have heard he’s a complete tool as well.

But he’s really not their starting catcher; he’s only starting because Will Smith has a boo boo.  And since Smith is the better catcher, less tradable, and not dead, Rushing’s time is short.

Not sure if they want Mayer, but if they move Rushing, thats around where I expect the price to be.

I’d try to push Atlanta on a Story/Murphy swap first…

[UtahSox]

On 6/15/2026 at 8:21 AM, notin said:

 

Whats the argument for acquiring Adames and the $150mill he is owed over the next 5 years?

Also bear in mind, SF might be reluctant to deal him.  They’ve struggled to sign big name free agents recently despite competitive offers.  Trading away one of the few they can sign will not send a positive message for the future.

 

 

See Buster Olney report. Yes they are willing

arguments: 

1- Adames is the 1st player in Giants uniform to hit 30 HR’s since Bonds. (Pretty good)
2- RS lineup now. (Not in Notin “Nostradamus 3years from now timeline”) 

• 29th in runs scored
• 29th in home runs
• 29th in RBIs
• 28th in total bases
• Bottom tier in slugging and OPS
• Only average in batting average and OBP

3- no free agents that will fix lineup next year, and odds of WC40 playing as well as he has again next year? Using your same fear of guys over 30….. 0% 😄

4- Marcelo Mayer has done nothing to prove he is a “building block” for this squad. This is the first time he’s been healthy in 3 years. Solid SS but literally a platoon SS. 
5- RS FO need a right handed bat, Adames could play 2nd or SS, hits for power, FO “says” they are willing to take on money back. Name a better available player that fits need. 

 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

See Buster Olney report. Yes they are willing

arguments: 

1- Adames is the 1st player in Giants uniform to hit 30 HR’s since Bonds. (Pretty good)
2- RS lineup now. (Not in Notin “Nostradamus 3years from now timeline”) 

• 29th in runs scored
• 29th in home runs
• 29th in RBIs
• 28th in total bases
• Bottom tier in slugging and OPS
• Only average in batting average and OBP

3- no free agents that will fix lineup next year, and odds of WC40 playing as well as he has again next year? Using your same fear of guys over 30….. 0% 😄

4- Marcelo Mayer has done nothing to prove he is a “building block” for this squad. This is the first time he’s been healthy in 3 years. Solid SS but literally a platoon SS. 
5- RS FO need a right handed bat, Adames could play 2nd or SS, hits for power, FO “says” they are willing to take on money back. Name a better available player that fits need. 

 

So what would you offer to entice SF to give up their first 30 HR hitter since Bonds?   Given their struggles to attract free agents, counting on a pure salary dump is not likel.

Also is Mayer really still a platoon player?  He was a platoon player under Cora, but almost every LHH is platooned under Cora.  Abreu and Casas were platoon players “under Cora”…

[UtahSox]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

So what would you offer to entice SF to give up their first 30 HR hitter since Bonds?   Given their struggles to attract free agents, counting on a pure salary dump is not likel.

 

No idea……… Bello+ Godbout+ Justin Gonzalez. Something like that. Doesn’t make sense on BTV but I’m assuming Giants aren’t just looking for salary dump. 
 

I’m off the rails here but: Hell what if RS got: Adames+ Devers for Bello+Godbout+Gonzalez+ Yoshida? Devers contract will definitely age poorly but 2027-2028….. lineup would be so much more fun. 

1b W Contreras

2b W Adames/ Story 

SS M Mayer maybe Arias late next year

3b Durbin/ Adames

LF R Anthony

cF Rafaela

rf Abreu

DH Devers

c committee 

trade: Duran, Chapman, Sonny maybe Whitlock? For prospects

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

So what would you offer to entice SF to give up their first 30 HR hitter since Bonds?   Given their struggles to attract free agents, counting on a pure salary dump is not likel.

Also is Mayer really still a platoon player?  He was a platoon player under Cora, but almost every LHH is platooned under Cora.  Abreu and Casas were platoon players “under Cora”…

Is Mayer still a platoon player? Huh? He’s still not only a platoon player, but gets pinch hit for when he starts against a RHP, and a LHP comes in.🤭

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

No idea……… Bello+ Godbout+ Justin Gonzalez. Something like that. 

I don’t see the Red Sox picking up that contract for Adames anyways.

[UtahSox]

Just now, Old Red said:

I don’t see the Red Sox picking up that contract anyways.

But FO says they are willing to take on contracts?? You mean to say you don’t believe them??? 😂 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

But FO says they are willing to take on contracts?? You mean to say you don’t believe them??? 😂 

Willing to take on contracts can mean many things as did full throttle.

[UtahSox]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Willing to take on contracts can mean many things as did full throttle.

“Big time players at trade deadline”

”we are the Boston Red Sox, we don’t have resource issues” 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

No idea……… Bello+ Godbout+ Justin Gonzalez. Something like that. Doesn’t make sense on BTV but I’m assuming Giants aren’t just looking for salary dump. 
 

I’m off the rails here but: Hell what if RS got: Adames+ Devers for Bello+Godbout+Gonzalez+ Yoshida? Devers contract will definitely age poorly but 2027-2028….. lineup would be so much more fun. 

1b W Contreras

2b W Adames/ Story 

SS M Mayer maybe Arias late next year

3b Durbin/ Adames

LF R Anthony

cF Rafaela

rf Abreu

DH Devers

c committee 

trade: Duran, Chapman, Sonny maybe Whitlock? For prospects

Yoshida, Bello, Godbout and Phillips works on BTV.   No idea of it works for SF….

[Sthpaw777]

19 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Oh.....is it a team option?

It’s a mutual option unless he hits 40ip where then it changes to a guaranteed 13m for 2027. So if they trade him he will not be a rental and will bring back a lot more

[Sthpaw777]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we sell, these have to be some players we shop:

EST $$$ owed at deadline(1/3 of 2026)

$7M Gray (mutual option on 2027)

$4M Chapman (with $13M mutual option for '27)

$4M Sandoval (Any takers? LMAO)

$3M Duran (2 more arbs)

$2M IKF

$400K Wong (2 more arbs)

$300K Coulombe

___________________

The DUMPS (Lucky to find a trade partner)

$38M Story '26-'27 (including $5M buyout for '28)

$24M Yoshida '26-'27

____________________

Hmmm....

$59M KC '26-32 w 2 option years ($4M buyout '33)

$48M Bello '26-'28 + $1M buyout for '30

$3M Whitlock ($8.25M option for '27 & $10.5 for '28) 

 

 

Bello and Whitlock will get a LOT of interest but not so much Campbell. You have to take some of that money. It was a mistake to give him a deal. Anthony too, although To a lesser extent.

. No chance on Sandoval. 

Story will be offseason, if at all. 
Eat 10-12m, or add a prospect and Yoshida would find another home for a year and a half.

the rest will bring something of value back at various levels, depending…

I would also listen on other players just to get a feel for their value… or maybe I’ll get blown away and can’t say no.

 

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, Sthpaw777 said:

It’s a mutual option unless he hits 40ip where then it changes to a guaranteed 13m for 2027. So if they trade him he will not be a rental and will bring back a lot more

Yup, we went through all that.  I was wrong

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Sthpaw777 said:

Bello and Whitlock will get a LOT of interest but not so much Campbell. You have to take some of that money. It was a mistake to give him a deal. Anthony too, although To a lesser extent.

. No chance on Sandoval. 

Story will be offseason, if at all. 
Eat 10-12m, or add a prospect and Yoshida would find another home for a year and a half.

the rest will bring something of value back at various levels, depending…

I would also listen on other players just to get a feel for their value… or maybe I’ll get blown away and can’t say no.

 

Reportedly Sandovals stuff hasn't looked half bad in his rehab, if he gets some innings up.....I actually think he might surpise people and he has value. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I’d try to push Atlanta on a Story/Murphy swap first…

Is Murphy out for all of 2026?

BTV has this:

Story -39.5 (owed $44.2M)

Murphy -18.7 (owed $38.5M)

Adding $19.3 Narvaez would about even it up for BTV. We'd "save" almost $6M. Maybe ATL would ask for $5-10M. If we did that, maybe we'd swap out Duran for Narvaez, and that would save us on Duran's future arb costs.