Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

HOF has nothing to do with WAR calculations.  Really it is part of this discussion because it supports how much closers are overrated.

I know Rivera’s postseason stats support his legend, but how many titles do the Yankees win without him?  In fact, an argument exists they might have won more without him…

You brought up the HOF.

No way the Yanks win more rings w/o Mo. Unlikely or maybe the same but not more.

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, notin said:

That supports fan perception of closer’s value, not actual value…

Ok well padres gave up Leo de vries for a closer last year. Couple that with what Edwin Diaz got in FA….  I think Red Sox will get much better value out of Chapman….. 

[Bellhorn04]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

HOF has nothing to do with WAR calculations.  Really it is part of this discussion because it supports how much closers are overrated.

I know Rivera’s postseason stats support his legend, but how many titles do the Yankees win without him?  In fact, an argument exists they might have won more without him…

That argument would be quite a rabbit hole.  Of course we've climbed down those many times before.  

[Bellhorn04]

Closers might be overrated, but a good one is still nice to have.  The leverage thing does matter, of course.

One of the things that made Rivera great was that when needed he could give you the 8th AND the 9th.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

And you know some teams will offer way more than $2M value for Chapman.

BTV:

2.2 Chapman

Players we know...

2.3 Zanetello, Romero, YRod & Cason

2.2 Uberstine & Samaniego

2.1 Weissert

Sox Nation would rebel, if we traded Chapman for 4 players like Zanetello, Romero, YRod and Weissert.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Closers might be overrated, but a good one is still nice to have.  The leverage thing does matter, of course.

One of the things that made Rivera great was that when needed he could give you the 8th AND the 9th.  

Four words:

Foulke

Papelbon

Uehara

Kimbrell

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, notin said:

But it doesn’t mean WAR undervalues closers.

It does,  It values closers on a replacement basis.  So a guy like Wakefield, has 3000+ IPs, even at a minimum upgrade from a replacement player, yields a huge surplus.  No matter how well a closer performs, his surplus won't be as high if he only has 900 IPs.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It does,  It values closers on a replacement basis.  So a guy like Wakefield, has 3000+ IPs, even at a minimum upgrade from a replacement player, yields a huge surplus.  No matter how well a closer performs, his surplus won't be as high if he only has 900 IPs.

IMO, Wake was undervalued by many a fan.

[Nick]

Chapman has a mutual contract for 2027 at $13M. It becomes a guarantee if he pitches 40 innings (now at 17+ innings). Obviously he could turn it down but I'm not sure if anyone will give him a better deal. And I think he likes to pitch for Boston (not sure why). 

It would seem silly to me to trade Chapman unless we go on a full fledge rebuild mode. Why would we trade away an important piece that will  bring us success? I doubt if we will get an every day player for Chapman. Then not having a closer on an otherwise good team will become a problem in 2027.

By trading him, it signals to me that we are punting 2027 season along with this year. So we go from going all in for 2026 to rebuilding in 2027? That makes no sense.

Crochet has a contract through 2031 but he has an option to leave after 2030 if he does not spend more than 120 days on IL. On the other hand, if he does spend more than 120 days on IL, he is contracted to play for Red Sox at $15M in 2032. 

At minimum he is with us for 4 years after 2026. To me, that's our window of opportunity. Can't keep punting the ball Mr. Breslow. Also, you may want to reevaluate what it means for a team to go 'all in'. 

[jad]

There is no such thing as a natural 'closer' any more than there's such a thing as a 'natural position'.   Rivera, Chapman, Koji ... these were great pitchers, who honed their skills for one-inning work.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Chapman has a mutual contract for 2027 at $13M. It becomes a guarantee if he pitches 40 innings (now at 17+ innings). Obviously he could turn it down but I'm not sure if anyone will give him a better deal. And I think he likes to pitch for Boston (not sure why). 

It would seem silly to me to trade Chapman unless we go on a full fledge rebuild mode. Why would we trade away an important piece that will  bring us success? I doubt if we will get an every day player for Chapman. Then not having a closer on an otherwise good team will become a problem in 2027.

By trading him, it signals to me that we are punting 2027 season along with this year. So we go from going all in for 2026 to rebuilding in 2027? That makes no sense.

Crochet has a contract through 2031 but he has an option to leave after 2030 if he does not spend more than 120 days on IL. On the other hand, if he does spend more than 120 days on IL, he is contracted to play for Red Sox at $15M in 2032. 

At minimum he is with us for 4 years after 2026. To me, that's our window of opportunity. Can't keep punting the ball Mr. Breslow. Also, you may want to reevaluate what it means for a team to go 'all in'. 

As of right now the Flops are in LAST PLACE. We STINK. That’s because BresLOW hired bums like Gaspar, IKF, and Durbum instead of talented players like Schwarber and Alonso. This was a year we should have been competitive. We have our ace and a good SP staff and Anthony is going to come around. Contreras was a good addition but we needed one or two more. Instead BresLOW urinated away a chance to compete THIS YEAR. Now it’s not even June and everyone is talking about selling already. 
What a crappy franchise.

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You brought up the HOF.

No way the Yanks win more rings w/o Mo. Unlikely or maybe the same but not more.

It’s unprovable either way, but in the WS in 1998 through 2000, the Yankees were 12-1.  That means they got the lead every game.  A lesser closer might have blown a game or two.  Maybe.  But that doesn’t put them on the cusp of losing any of those series.

In fact, the only time a blown save did was game 7 of the 2001 World Series, which Rivera did blow and cost the Yankees a title.

Aside from the 2001 World Series, the Yankees only played in other winner-take-all games, game 5 against the A’s in the 2009 ALDS, in which Rivera did get a 5 out save protecting a 2 run lead.

This is a team that was always playing with the lead.  Rivera certainly did his job holding it.  But they were never in such close series that any lost lead was crucial.  Except in 2001…

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s unprovable either way, but in the WS in 1998 through 2000, the Yankees were 12-1.  That means they got the lead every game.  A lesser closer might have blown a game or two.  Maybe.  But that doesn’t put them on the cusp of losing any of those series.

In fact, the only time a blown save did was game 7 of the 2001 World Series, which Rivera did blow and cost the Yankees a title.

Aside from the 2001 World Series, the Yankees only played in other winner-take-all games, game 5 against the A’s in the 2009 ALDS, in which Rivera did get a 5 out save protecting a 2 run lead.

This is a team that was always playing with the lead.  Rivera certainly did his job holding it.  But they were never in such close series that any lost lead was crucial.  Except in 2001…

 

Neglecting how the Yanks got to so many WS is a big ommission.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Chapman has a mutual contract for 2027 at $13M. It becomes a guarantee if he pitches 40 innings (now at 17+ innings). Obviously he could turn it down but I'm not sure if anyone will give him a better deal. And I think he likes to pitch for Boston (not sure why). 

It would seem silly to me to trade Chapman unless we go on a full fledge rebuild mode. Why would we trade away an important piece that will  bring us success? I doubt if we will get an every day player for Chapman. Then not having a closer on an otherwise good team will become a problem in 2027.

By trading him, it signals to me that we are punting 2027 season along with this year. So we go from going all in for 2026 to rebuilding in 2027? That makes no sense.

Crochet has a contract through 2031 but he has an option to leave after 2030 if he does not spend more than 120 days on IL. On the other hand, if he does spend more than 120 days on IL, he is contracted to play for Red Sox at $15M in 2032. 

At minimum he is with us for 4 years after 2026. To me, that's our window of opportunity. Can't keep punting the ball Mr. Breslow. Also, you may want to reevaluate what it means for a team to go 'all in'. 

Trading Chapman isn’t punting 2027.   He should be replaced, but at some point it’s going to stop being wise to rely on 39 yo relief pitchers…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Neglecting how the Yanks got to so many WS is a big ommission.

How did they get them?  Enlighten me.

If you’re going with their bullpen, remember Rivera was a small part in that 4-headed monster…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

How did they get them?  Enlighten me.

If you’re going with their bullpen, remember Rivera was a small part in that 4-headed monster…

I guess Mo had nothing to do with the Yanks playing well enough to make the playoffs and WS.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess Mo had nothing to do with the Yanks playing well enough to make the playoffs and WS.

Slow down.  Youre changing the meaning here.

My original point is closers in general are overrated and WAR encapsulates their value just fine.  I stand by that, and I think Bellhorn’s point about the scale of the role has relevance.

As for Rivera, he is a Hall of Famer, but he is also far and away the most overrated player in MLB history.  He is the best closer, but that role is also quite overvalued by many.  Just because he is overrated does mean he’s useless.

Not sure where you’re going here, but if I were to put the same flip on you, I’d say you were saying the Yankees without Rivera weren’t a playoff team at all. And I hope you’re not saying that.

Rivera really is overrated and a product of right-place/right time.  If the Yankee had let Mike Stanton or Gene Nelson close, does it cost them titles? (Did you know Stanton has more bWAR than Rivera in 2000 and 2002?)

And as for overrated, do you really think Rivera should have been the first unanimous selection to Cooperstown? Instead of Cal Ripken? Ken Griffey Jr.? Ted Williams? Joe DiMaggio? Or Babe Ruth?

[moonslav59]

He helped them win rings. Period.

[moonslav59]

I dont care about the HOF. It's a joke.

How am i changing teh narrative and this isnt?

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, Wake was undervalued by many a fan.

Maybe early on, but he held on for a few too many years. 

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I dont care about the HOF. It's a joke.

How am i changing teh narrative and this isnt?

It’s a good way to represent perception.  When the topic is closers being overrated, I need an inarguable method to show how overrated they are.

If course saying closers are overrated isn’t saying relief pitching is overrated.  I think Rivera was best used taking on other team’s best hitters when they come up rather than as working almost exclusively in the 9th inning when any hitter is due up.  
 

No, I do not believe the 9th inning are the “toughest outs in the game.”  I do believe the best hitters on the other team are the toughest outs in the game.  A little less romantic, a little less imaginative.  But reality isn’t always romantic and imaginative…

 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Trading Chapman isn’t punting 2027.   He should be replaced, but at some point it’s going to stop being wise to rely on 39 yo relief pitchers…

And Chapman may not stick around for '27 anyway. It's a MUTUAL option, not a team option. Deal him.

[mvp 78]

As for Chapmans, I've heard some fans really yearning for Matt Chapman. Just don't know if I want that contract through 2030! Sox aren't competing this year and next year may be a "just get back into the playoffs" run. Sox need to start building around a younger core. Unless Chapman is on a deep discount, it doesn't make sense to have an aging player like him at 3b. Lowell was toast after 34. Youk was done about the same age. Arenado seems to really like hitting in AZ, but he's going in the wrong direction at that age. 

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a good way to represent perception.  When the topic is closers being overrated, I need an inarguable method to show how overrated they are.

If course saying closers are overrated isn’t saying relief pitching is overrated.  I think Rivera was best used taking on other team’s best hitters when they come up rather than as working almost exclusively in the 9th inning when any hitter is due up.  
 

No, I do not believe the 9th inning are the “toughest outs in the game.”  I do believe the best hitters on the other team are the toughest outs in the game.  A little less romantic, a little less imaginative.  But reality isn’t always romantic and imaginative…

 

Take a look at Rivera's postseason game log.  He had a huge number of outings that were more than an inning.  A pile of 2 inning outings.  He was the farthest thing from a 9th inning only guy.

[Bellhorn04]

BTW there is a crazy spread between Rivera's bWAR and his fWAR, 56 vs. 39.  He's not the only one with a big spread like that.  Rick Porcello is another one. 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Take a look at Rivera's postseason game log.  He had a huge number of outings that were more than an inning.  A pile of 2 inning outings.  He was the farthest thing from a 9th inning only guy.

True.  He did a bunch of 4 and 5 out saves, although I’m not going into each one to see who he faced.  Thr current role of closer doesnt do that.

But even taking that into account, does he make sense ss the first unanimous HOF selection? It seems like that unique honor - however small you may think it is - there were many more impactful players that were passed over for it…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And Chapman may not stick around for '27 anyway. It's a MUTUAL option, not a team option. Deal him.

And pay down what it takes to get a worthwhile return…

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

True.  He did a bunch of 4 and 5 out saves, although I’m not going into each one to see who he faced.  Thr current role of closer doesnt do that.

But even taking that into account, does he make sense ss the first unanimous HOF selection? It seems like that unique honor - however small you may think it is - there were many more impactful players that were passed over for it…

The unanimous thing is questionable but doesn't mean all that much IMHO. Some of the voters do dumb things.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

BTW there is a crazy spread between Rivera's bWAR and his fWAR, 56 vs. 39.  He's not the only one with a big spread like that.  Rick Porcello is another one. 

Ive seen that, too.  
 

bWAR uses runs allowed while fWAR uses FIP.  So pitchers with higher bWAR can benefit from defensive play better.

Doubtful that makes the full difference here, but it’s the biggest difference…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The unanimous thing is questionable but doesn't mean all that much IMHO. Some of the voters do dumb things.

It’s a small honor, but IMHO an undeserved one.  And undeserved honors are the basis of being overrated.

”Overrated” doesn’t mean “bad;” it just means you got more love than you deserve…