Sox Trade For Milwaukee 3B Caleb Durbin

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not Brez.

Probably the TOR GM, but I'm not impressed with Cease and The Okomotive. They lost Bichette & Bassitt, plus a guy named Kiner-Falefa!

TOR's moves seemed very lateral too me. I thought they were angling for something bigger this offseason.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Gray’s money? I f you wanted to spend money on a bat you could have spent Ranger’s money on that. You only had Ranger money to spend, because they didn’t spend it on Bregman.

If they did not trade for Gray, they'd have his $21M and maybe couple it with $6M for I K-F and that's $27M. (That's about the same as Surez's AAV.)

Yes, Gray's money.

They may have wanted to take back the Gray trade, if they knew they'd sign Suarez.

Alonso got $31M AAV. We could have gotten him, I K-F and Suarez with no Gray & Contreras.

We coulda got Okamoto + E Suarez for $30M combined.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

TOR's moves seemed very lateral too me. I thought they were angling for something bigger this offseason.

I think worse than lateral, if Im honest.  

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

TOR's moves seemed very lateral too me. I thought they were angling for something bigger this offseason.

I keep hearing how great they did. Sure, they also added Tyler Rogers & Ponce, but can we Cease and desist with all the Ponce & Judy talk?

They lost Bichette and Bassitt.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I think worse than lateral, if Im honest.  

I'd say the Yanks were "lateral," too, but they did add some pitching depth. Standing pat rarely works in any sport.

[Nick]

Not sure where to put this.

I saw where MLB had rankings of relievers (late inning guys?). Chapman was #1 and Whitlock #6.

I want to see Whitlock as a 1 inning guy from get go this year, pitching either 8th or 9th inning. Going two hurts him in the long run. I thought he ran out of gas last year. Case in point? His last outing. Sometimes he's unable to put guys away and that leads to running up pitch count, especially doing two inning stints.

Find a guy to pitch the 7th. Use Kutter as the bulk guy to start out the season.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think worse than lateral, if Im honest.  

I don't like Cease and Okamoto is a big question mark. I was being kind. 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Nick said:

Not sure where to put this.

I saw where MLB had rankings of relievers (late inning guys?). Chapman was #1 and Whitlock #6.

I want to see Whitlock as a 1 inning guy from get go this year, pitching either 8th or 9th inning. Going two hurts him in the long run. I thought he ran out of gas last year. Case in point? His last outing. Sometimes he's unable to put guys away and that leads to running up pitch count, especially doing two inning stints.

Find a guy to pitch the 7th. Use Kutter as the bulk guy to start out the season.

I agree 100%. I think Kutter might fit into this role very well. 

There is also a bit of a mind shift and physical aspect of knowing you don't have to go 5-7IP.

Closer: Chapman

8th/9th inning: Whitlock

8th inning: Slaten & Wiessert

7th inning/2-3 inning RP: Crawford (Oviedo or Sandoval?)

Low/Moderate Leverage: Watson, Moran, Kelly 

[Kimmi]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The only time that the Sox won a WS with a bottom 10 defense was in 2004 when they had an absolutely stacked offense. Even if they had Devers and Bregman on this roster, they weren't going to compete with the 2004 roster. This roster is built to be more dynamic and needs to play better defense. Having a backup IFer that can competently field every IF position is important when the starters include Story and Mayer on the left side (most likely). Adding a guy like Durbin who has a good approach at the plate is important when 6 of your projected '26 starters were over 24% k rate last season. 

I don't think it's about "accumulating WAR" either. It's about building a ballclub. That's something that things like PECOTA don't quantify very well. Good starting pitching. Good defense. Good at bats. At one point in our fandom, people wanted dirt dogs. Guess they don't anymore? They just care about homeruns and their fantasy stats. 

I really, really, like this post.  Thank you.

[Kimmi]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

As Breslow. said HR wins postseason games. I agree with what you are saying, and this way may turn out better than with Bregman, Alonso, or Raffy, and if it does Breslow will be applauded, but if it don’t he will be chastised for not having a better plan like getting a power bat, or two.

The statement that HRs win postseason games really isn't true though.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I really, really, like this post.  Thank you.

Me, too, and Cora said something that rang true to me. He said, "We now have a complete team."

[Hugh2]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd suggest it is more like someone paying $90 for my $100 card + throwing in a card that I believe should be worth $50.

Or, following Moon's (?) lead, it is most closely like asking 'would you prefer Devers, or Suarez + IKF + Durbin?  FFTD.

Not really, the point was it was two entirely different trades. 

Here's another crude analogy. 

People need to think about what defines a "sunk cost" around here.  Should the Sox NEVER trade Harrison until he becomes more valuable than Devers?

That's exactly how traders who lose all their money in the stock market react when their assets go down.  Mentally they don't lose the money until the actually trade an asset away.....so they hold onto it for even longer as it continues to depreciate. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

The statement that HRs win postseason games really isn't true though.

It just "feels true" because of SSS and highlights that are played over and over again. 

[mvp 78]

Was David Ortiz MVP in 2013 because he hit 2 HR's or because he went 11-16, 7 1b, 2 2b, 2 HR, 8 BB? If you get rid of the 2 HR's, he still wins the MVP 100%. 

He was a great postseason hitter right? On average, he hit less HRs in the postseason than he did in the regular season. 

[moonslav59]

Durbin turns 26, soon. While the age of prime varies from player to player, and many players don't get any better after 25 or 26, the ones who stick around into their 30's more often than not get better.

After 3 seasons in college at over a 1.000 ops, Caleb hovered in the mid .700s, until he reached AAA in 2024. Over two seasons in AAA, he hit .858 with about 18 HRs per 650 (45 2B+3B & 45 SBs) Maybe this is his ceiling? It's hard to know. .285 w 20 HRs and 30 SBs is pretty good. He won't K much, so that will make some posters happy.

He seems pretty good on D, too, and it remains to be seen where they place him and Mayer. 

He wasn't the big bat many of us had hoped for, so I do still feel a sense of a letdown. AI felt a little bit the same way with Contreras and not Alonso. The two mini let downs combine into a sense of being a bigger letdown. I totally get the doom & gloomers. We coulda-shoulda and didn't.

We did make up for at least some of that let down by power boosting the rotation beyond anyone's expectations. We traded away and swapped out some of the rotation depth, but we still remain about 4 SP'ers deep and at a level of quality very few, if any, teams can match.

We may need to steal one or two of those arms for the pen, but maybe we add a piece there before opening day.

I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about 2026. We have a lot of upside players that are pre or near prime. We don't need them all to step up, but I do not think it is unreasonable to expect more players to step up than to regress or stay the same. Most of our key players are in prime years or before. A few are on the downside of prime, but still able to produce. Only Chapman and Gray are past the normal ages of prime.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Breslow himself acknowledged that home runs help teams get deep into the postseason.

Some posters love stats that justify opinions, but then use "Small Sample Size" to argue against other stats. Teams that out-homered opponents in playoff games last year won 35 of 40. Call that a SSS if you want, but it's also ALL the playoff games, so ESS: Entire Sample Size.

I love the Durbin trade because the Sox didn't give up much for a guy who's my kind of ballplayer: all hustle, makes contact and doesn't strike out.

And of course Cora is going to say the Red Sox are a "complete team" the first week of Spring Training. But we all know it's not.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Teams that out-homered opponents in playoff games last year won 35 of 40.

The teams that score more runs than the other teams tend to win more often? I think I just fell out of my seat. 

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow himself acknowledged that home runs help teams get deep into the postseason.

Some posters love stats that justify opinions, but then use "Small Sample Size" to argue against other stats. Teams that out-homered opponents in playoff games last year won 35 of 40. Call that a SSS if you want, but it's also ALL the playoff games, so ESS: Entire Sample Size.

I love the Durbin trade because the Sox didn't give up much for a guy who's my kind of ballplayer: all hustle, makes contact and doesn't strike out.

And of course Cora is going to say the Red Sox are a "complete team" the first week of Spring Training. But we all know it's not.

Yes Bres did acknowledge that HR help teams win postseason games. 35-5 is a pretty good record that shows that. I’m sure Bres had good intentions to get some HR, but those good intentions didn’t lead to anything of the sort. Yes the Durbin trade was good for what it was, and yes Cora is all positives, but I bet he’d be more postive with at least a Bregman by his side.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The teams that score more runs than the other teams tend to win more often? I think I just fell out of my seat. 

Yes, and HR leads to those more runs.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes, and HR leads to those more runs.

And run prevention with a strong rotation leads to less HRs. Duh. 

Instead of giving up 3 HRs, they give up 0 or 1. It's not rocket science here. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And run prevention with a strong rotation leads to less HRs. Duh. 

Instead of giving up 3 HRs, they give up 0 or 1. It's not rocket science here. 

You can Pooh Pooh HR all you want, but it doesn’t change anything rocket science, or not.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

You can Pooh Pooh HR all you want, but it doesn’t change anything rocket science, or not.

I can disagree with me all you want, I just tend to be correct when all is said an done. 🫠

Get on board early. That's my advice. 

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say the Yanks were "lateral," too, but they did add some pitching depth. Standing pat rarely works in any sport.

It could be argued we've only moved laterally, too, however. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The teams that score more runs than the other teams tend to win more often? I think I just fell out of my seat. 

Wear a seatbelt next time so you can read all the words in a post before replying.

 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I can disagree with me all you want, I just tend to be correct when all is said an done. 🫠

Get on board early. That's my advice. 

I can disagree with me?🤔

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I can disagree with me?🤔

I disagree with myself all the time. I said so in my post. 

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And run prevention with a strong rotation leads to less HRs. Duh. 

Instead of giving up 3 HRs, they give up 0 or 1. It's not rocket science here. 

I know all about strong rotations, and run prevention especially in the postseason since I started following baseball. Sandy, and Don, Gibby, Palmer, Mickey LO, and McLain, but I don’t see the Red Sox having an elite staff as I heard on here.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I disagree with myself all the time. I said so in my post. 

Save room for others.

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I know all about strong rotations, and run prevention especially in the postseason since I started following baseball. Sandy, and Don, Gibby, Palmer, Mickey LO, and McLain, but I don’t see the Red Sox having an elite staff as I heard on here.

Who....in baseball has an "elite" staff?

[moonslav59]

"Elite" is a relative term.

Preventing HRs is just as important as hitting them.