Sox Trade For Milwaukee 3B Caleb Durbin

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It could be argued we've only moved laterally, too, however. 

Very true. It's always hard to measure when you improve in 1-2 area but get worse in 1-2 other areas.

[moonslav59]

On not addressing the power need and "not improving" on power from the 2025 season: the guy who jumps to mind the most is Devers, and rightly so, but he was only here for a couple months.

The Sox w Devers: .169 ISO/ .422 SLG

The Sox after Devers: .166 ISO/ .421 SLG

Not much difference, so one could argue we can compare the post Devers Sox to the 2026 Sox, but I'll include Devers in the list of departed batters:

Note that none of our best power hitters were top 3 in PAs and only Bregman was top 7. (Only Breggie & Raffy were top 11 in PAs)

.232/.504 Devers (334 PaS)

.214/.482 Refsnyder (209 PAs)

.189/.462 Bregman (495 PAs)

.140/.420 N Lowe (119)

.131/.256 Toro (284) 10th in PAs

Adds:

.190/.447 Contreras (563) is close to Bregman (may see numbers rise in Fenway)

.130/.387 Durbin (506) improves on Toro's power numbers a bit but not Lowe's.

We really need 600+ PAs from...

.171/.468 Anthony (303) at similar numbers as these- maybe with some more pop. It's not an unreasonable ask.

It is safe to say we did not improve on HR power from 2025, and instead we'll need improved pop from returning players and maybe from Contreras & Durbin playing half their games at Fenway.

 

 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow himself acknowledged that home runs help teams get deep into the postseason.

Some posters love stats that justify opinions, but then use "Small Sample Size" to argue against other stats. Teams that out-homered opponents in playoff games last year won 35 of 40. Call that a SSS if you want, but it's also ALL the playoff games, so ESS: Entire Sample Size.

I love the Durbin trade because the Sox didn't give up much for a guy who's my kind of ballplayer: all hustle, makes contact and doesn't strike out.

And of course Cora is going to say the Red Sox are a "complete team" the first week of Spring Training. But we all know it's not.

Homeruns are highly correlated with a hungry approach with hungry eyes.  If you are hitting homeruns, your reads are correct, you are making contact out in front, you are pulling the ball, you are swinging your hips like the coach teaches in Happy Gilmore (RIP Chubs), and yes HR's really help.

I do like the Durbin trade, and not only because of what we gave up (or #9 best SP for a versatile above average infielder who is immediately expected to be an everyday regular) - I also like his pull approach, defensive versatility, gritty demeanor.  The only downside to me, is that its now yet another full time position locked up for the foreseeable future with a .711 OPS guy, which I expect to get better, but one less place to put a 1,000 OPS guy and yes I want one knowing that there are only like 5 in the league but guess what all 5 are on tems that do very well , so coincidence - I think not!  (thinking Judge, Ohtani, Vlad, Cal, and Soto and I expect the NYM to make us all stop making fun of them this year)

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Homeruns are highly correlated with a hungry approach with hungry eyes.  If you are hitting homeruns, your reads are correct, you are making contact out in front, you are pulling the ball, you are swinging your hips like the coach teaches in Happy Gilmore (RIP Chubs), and yes HR's really help.

I do like the Durbin trade, and not only because of what we gave up (or #9 best SP for a versatile above average infielder who is immediately expected to be an everyday regular) - I also like his pull approach, defensive versatility, gritty demeanor.  The only downside to me, is that its now yet another full time position locked up for the foreseeable future with a .711 OPS guy, which I expect to get better, but one less place to put a 1,000 OPS guy and yes I want one knowing that there are only like 5 in the league but guess what all 5 are on tems that do very well , so coincidence - I think not!  (thinking Judge, Ohtani, Vlad, Cal, and Soto and I expect the NYM to make us all stop making fun of them this year)

I'm actually shocked at how little we gave up for Durbin. Had it only been Durbin, without the 2 other depth players and the comp pick, which should not be undervalued, even if just for the added bonus money, it would still look great, to me.

MIL must really like Harrison. It better not be DHam they like.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm actually shocked at how little we gave up for Durbin. Had it only been Durbin, without the 2 other depth players and the comp pick, which should not be undervalued, even if just for the added bonus money, it would still look great, to me.

MIL must really like Harrison. It better not be DHam they like.

They want Hamilton on the left side of the IF. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

.130/.387 Durbin (506) improves on Toro's power numbers a bit but not Lowe's.

Caleb Durbin hit HRs more frequently for MIL in '25 than Lowe did for BOS in '25. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Save room for others.

I'm much too spicy for most of you. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

a 1,000 OPS guy and yes I want one knowing that there are only like 5 in the league but guess what all 5 are on tems that do very well , so coincidence - I think not!  (thinking Judge, Ohtani, Vlad, Cal, and Soto and I expect the NYM to make us all stop making fun of them this year)

Ah, Soto -- the Red Sox knew how much he'd mean to their batting order, and were reportedly so aggressively interested they offered $700 million... or was it $600 mil... $500? More than $0.00 to Schwarber or Alonso? But they wind up wounded, not even dead.

 

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm actually shocked at how little we gave up for Durbin. Had it only been Durbin, without the 2 other depth players and the comp pick, which should not be undervalued, even if just for the added bonus money, it would still look great, to me.

MIL must really like Harrison. It better not be DHam they like.

Do we owe Quinn Priester a thank you?  Is it fair to call this "hidden secondary value" to the Quinn Priester trade?

Just thinking - and I agree, this trade is hard to see from their perspective and im wondering if QP has anything to do with it (obviously small amount but what if its merely something like this)

GM: Id like to move an infielder for some more pitching, preferably young MLB ready pitching
Asst GM: One young pitcher with MLB experience and a not terrible 2025 ERA who might be available is Harrison on the Sox because they have him buried on their SP depth chart
GM: Should we be concerned that the Red Sox buried him
Asst GM: well they had Quinn Priester buried and that was a good addition for us
GM: Good point, good point

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They want Hamilton on the left side of the IF. 

No wonder they make dumb trades like this.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And run prevention with a strong rotation leads to less HRs. Duh. 

Instead of giving up 3 HRs, they give up 0 or 1. It's not rocket science here. 

Okay mr stealing Moons point from yesterday (its a good one though)

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

You can Pooh Pooh HR all you want, but it doesn’t change anything rocket science, or not.

He didnt, he said HR's against matter a lot towards winning the who will hit more HR us or them battle. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The only downside to me, is that its now yet another full time position locked up for the foreseeable future with a .711 OPS guy, which I expect to get better, but one less place to put a 1,000 OPS guy and yes I want one knowing that there are only like 5 in the league but guess what all 5 are on tems that do very well , so coincidence - I think not!  (thinking Judge, Ohtani, Vlad, Cal, and Soto and I expect the NYM to make us all stop making fun of them this year)

The Jays were 11th in HRs last season. Sox only had 5 less than them. 

What did TOR do well? 

AVG - 1st

K% - 1st (lowest)

DEF - 1st

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Okay mr stealing Moons point from yesterday (its a good one though)

If moon made that point yesterday, kudos. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Caleb Durbin hit HRs more frequently for MIL in '25 than Lowe did for BOS in '25. 

A rate that they expect to raise due to park factors and having a full season under his belt.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm much too spicy for most of you. 

What are you a wendys chicken sandwich

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

A rate that they expect to raise due to park factors and having a full season under his belt.

If you look at his swing, maybe? I see it with the pull air %. I just am not super hopeful that a guy who hit 11 is going to hit 20 at Fenway. I'd be happy with 15. I said previously that it's more likely he starts racking up doubles than HRs and I'm ok with it. Jody Reed hit 129 2bs from '89-'91, why not Durbin? 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What are you a wendys chicken sandwich

If you think that's spicy, you can't handle me at more worst/best. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

Some posters love stats that justify opinions, but then use "Small Sample Size" to argue against other stats. Teams that out-homered opponents in playoff games last year won 35 of 40. Call that a SSS if you want, but it's also ALL the playoff games, so ESS: Entire Sample Size.

 

Out-homering a team doesn’t only mean muscling up and putting multiple shots over the wall.  It’s a relative term.  It just means hitting more home runs than the other guy does.  So could you out-homer a team by using good pitching to limit their home runs? How many of those 40 games involved the losing team not homering at all?

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Do we owe Quinn Priester a thank you?  Is it fair to call this "hidden secondary value" to the Quinn Priester trade?

Just thinking - and I agree, this trade is hard to see from their perspective and im wondering if QP has anything to do with it (obviously small amount but what if its merely something like this)

GM: Id like to move an infielder for some more pitching, preferably young MLB ready pitching
Asst GM: One young pitcher with MLB experience and a not terrible 2025 ERA who might be available is Harrison on the Sox because they have him buried on their SP depth chart
GM: Should we be concerned that the Red Sox buried him
Asst GM: well they had Quinn Priester buried and that was a good addition for us
GM: Good point, good point

Kyle Harrison is almost the same exact age Quinn Priester was when we traded him last year. 

When Priester was traded he was 24, coming off of 2 part time seasons where he put up a -1.0 WAR but was a highly regarded prospect who ranked between 58-88 the few years prior.  The Brewers took him and got him right. 

Harrison, same age Preister was last year, .5 WAR the last few seasons, ranked between 26-38 the last few years. 

At this point in his career, Harrison is arguably a much better prospect than Preister was.  

If people are angry we traded Priester....they should be very angry we traded Harrison.  But that's my horrible take, reality is this is what the Brewers do, they're great at developing guys like Preister.....there's a good chance they get Kyle right and he becomes a very good pitcher. 

[JoeBrady]

18 hours ago, Kimmi said:

The statement that HRs win postseason games really isn't true though.

It feels like just a week ago that we had this conversation with me and MVP adding unvaluable data points.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Jays were 11th in HRs last season. Sox only had 5 less than them. 

What did TOR do well? 

AVG - 1st

K% - 1st (lowest)

DEF - 1st

 

Will Okamoto replace Bichette’s bat? Can George Springer hit 32 again? (Most HRs for him since 2017.). And while Dalton Varsho will likely hit 20HRs, is he really much else on offense given his sub-.300 OBP and .725 career OPS?

[Hugh2]

Quinn Priester vs. Kyle Harrison at the time of their trade. 

Age: QP: 24  KH: 24

IP:  QP: 92  KH: 158

FWar QP: -.5 KH: .8

last Prospect ranking  QP: 88 KH: 26

Kyle Harrison was a much better prospect than Quinn Priester was at the time of their trades. 

[JoeBrady]

19 hours ago, Nick said:

I want to see Whitlock as a 1 inning guy from get go this year,

There is little doubt you are right.  But I love to see those 2-inning, -0- run outings.  Can we compromise and give him 2-inning outings against the NYY only?

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If moon made that point yesterday, kudos. 

It's not like I came up with the notion for the first time in history.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Will Okamoto replace Bichette’s bat? Can George Springer hit 32 again? (Most HRs for him since 2017.). And while Dalton Varsho will likely hit 20HRs, is he really much else on offense given his sub-.300 OBP and .725 career OPS?

I do wonder about Springer repeating.

I also wonder about Grisham, too.

[JoeBrady]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MIL must really like Harrison. It better not be DHam they like.

It's a SSS for both years, but DHam was very good in 2024.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

Out-homering a team doesn’t only mean muscling up and putting multiple shots over the wall.  It’s a relative term.  It just means hitting more home runs than the other guy does.  So could you out-homer a team by using good pitching to limit their home runs? How many of those 40 games involved the losing team not homering at all?

Welcome to the correct side of the argument. 

[JoeBrady]

46 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Is it fair to call this "hidden secondary value" to the Quinn Priester trade?

Yes.  I have always, always wanted the guys we trade away to do well.  I want teams to think that our prospects are fairly ranked, and I want other GMs to think about dealing with Breslow.  IMHO, if you get a reputation for dealing players that crap out, it lessens the motivation for other teams to deal with you.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It feels like just a week ago that we had this conversation with me and MVP adding unvaluable data points.

Definitely unvaluable for sure.