Red Sox Have "Aggressive" Offer On Table For Alex Bregman

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman may not be an elite player, but hes a tier 2 free-agent looking for tier 2 free agent money. Hes not asking for Soto , Ohtani, Tucker money. Even Cease got 7/210.

IF a T2 FA is too rich for us, then we are just not serious.

I agree, but your max offer of $180M is pretty close to tier 1.

I know deals given to Soto and Ohtani blow that away, but $180M is a top 50 FA contract in MLB history.

[JoeBrady]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

has not had a great season for a long time.

It's important to note that he hasn't had any bad seasons (excluding injuries).  He's never had a wRC+ lower than 114, and averaged 122 over the past three seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's important to note that he hasn't had any bad seasons (excluding injuries).  He's never had a wRC+ lower than 114, and averaged 122 over the past three seasons.

Yeah, I doubt there have been too many active players as consistent as Bregman has been.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's important to note that he hasn't had any bad seasons (excluding injuries).  He's never had a wRC+ lower than 114, and averaged 122 over the past three seasons.

True, and I want him back, but he has not had a great year since 2019. The guy carried a 157 OPS+ from 2028-2019. That is greatness.

The closest he came to that since was in 2022 at 134, which is very good and maybe even great, when you count the defense plus-plus.

He's had a 123 OPS+ from 2020-2025. That's very nice. It's been 121 in the last 3 years, so the trend is not bad, but he turns 32 by the start of the season and dealt with an injury at age 31 and 27.

His great start to 2025 should be looked at the same way as his horrible start to 2024, when he was under .600 near the end of May, had a super hot 10 game streak then hit .712 for the next 110 PAs. He was at .701 on the 4th of July, and people herein HOU were wondering if his time was up.

His second half of 2024 to first half of 2025 was a long sample size that showed he's not done, but the worry is still there.

I don't see many other options out there, and I want us to be a top 3-4 contender in 2026, and not a top 8-10 one. We need a big add or two good ones. I want Breggie back. I'm just saying why is he the guy we finally break the mold for?

 

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but your max offer of $180M is pretty close to tier 1.

I know deals given to Soto and Ohtani blow that away, but $180M is a top 50 FA contract in MLB history.

Bruh, a t1 FA contract is 600m

[drewski6]

And if you meant this year, we'll see what Tucker gets.  I think hes getting well north of 180m. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, I doubt there have been too many active players as consistent as Bregman has been.

He saw a hug drop from 2018-2019 to 2000-2025. Sure, he was pretty level all those years, but not clse to that previous level.

He was horrible from opening day '24 until July 4th 2024. He was not great after coming back from the injury in 2025.

Cracks are showing. One could argue he's had two bad half seasons and two great ones i his last 4.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

He saw a hug drop from 2018-2019 to 2000-2025. Sure, he was pretty level all those years, but not clse to that previous level.

He was horrible from opening day '24 until July 4th 2024. He was not great after coming back from the injury in 2025.

Cracks are showing. One could argue he's had two bad half seasons and two great ones i his last 4.

Correct. There are indeed a few red flags with Bregman. His age, he got hurt last year, his 2025 didnt end great, his 2024 didnt start great

And if none of these red flags existed, he would be getting 600m

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Bruh, a t1 FA contract is 600m

Tier one is 1-2 guys in all of baseball history?

LOL!

Look, I get your point. Soto, Ohtani, Yamo were in a league by themselves. Sme extensions are up there, too.

16 FAs signed for $300M or more. I could agree that is the cut off, but I do think being top 50 is "close to tier 1." I guess it's all subjective, and certainly $180M spent in 2000 or 2010 is not the same as 2026.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Correct. There are indeed a few red flags with Bregman. His age, he got hurt last year, his 2025 didnt end great, his 2024 didnt start great

And if none of these red flags existed, he would be getting 600m

Well, the age thing can't be ignored. I'd also argue that a 6 year sample size of not being close to your career highs is more than a red flag.

It's not like a 121-123 OPS+ and near GG defense is bad, but no way is that $600M. You are looking at 2018-2019, "Bruh!"

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, the age thing can't be ignored. I'd also argue that a 6 year sample size of not being close to your career highs is more than a red flag.

It's not like a 121-123 OPS+ and near GG defense is bad, but no way is that $600M. You are looking at 2018-2019, "Bruh!"

I did mean his 2018-2019. If after 2019, 25/26 yr old Bregman fell into a time machine and woke up today in 2026, he be a 600m man.

But hes not, hes aging with other red flags as well, so hes not a 600m man. But dont expect perfection from a 150m(ish) contract though, cuz thats not the price of perfection.

[Larry Cook]

One of the beat reporters said we offered 6 years and 171.5 million. 
Some people think the cubs are going hard after Bregman. Others think it is Arizona. 
 

no one is mentioning Detroit, but everybody says our offer mirrors the Detroit offer from last year! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When it comes to Bregman, I don't really care how much or how many, because we all agree the Red Sox need more good ballplayers.

Because when we get right down to it, how many All-Star big leaguers are even available?

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I did mean his 2018-2019. If after 2019, 25/26 yr old Bregman fell into a time machine and woke up today in 2026, he be a 600m man.

But hes not, hes aging with other red flags as well, so hes not a 600m man. But dont expect perfection from a 150m(ish) contract though, cuz thats not the price of perfection.

I've said numerous times that bringing Bregman back is a sideways move. Alone, it does not improve us from 2025. Not having him makes us way worse.

He's not "the guy" in my opinion, that we go large and long on. Yes, you can argue $180M is not all that "large" and is not bringing us a "perfect" player. I feel the same about Bichette- sideways from Bregman 2025.

I like a lot of what Brez has done in 2 short years (2.5 if you go by off seasons.) We improved at 1B and the rotation, but the loss of Bregman, Devers, Ref and Lowe left a big hole in the offense that Contreras cannot come close to filling by himself. Sure, hope the kids rise and shine, but that should be counted as gravy not as "the whole plan."

Bringing Bregman back, by itself, is enough for me to think we improved by enough to get us to a top 6-7 contender. Without him, we are maybe at 9-11. I had hopes we could get to top 4-6, but maybe the "gravy" can get us there- or amazingly few injuries.

Maybe we add two players- like Bregman and a SP, or Suarez and an even better SP. Then, maybe we can be top 4-5. Maybe.

I see it like this: signing someone to a 6 year deal is not going to open up the floodgates to multiple large and long deal over the next 1-3 years. It might be the last one for another 10 years! Is Bregman really the guy to sign for 6 years and be the only one like that for 4-5 or more years? Story was 6, and I guess $140M might be like $170-180, now, but that was 2022. Yoshida was 5. I look at the Nate deal as more of an extension than a FA signing, and he was just 4 years. The last large and long FA deal could be viewed as the Price deal way back in 2016. That was... yup...10 years ago.

I loved the Price signing. The guy was steady, durable, predictable and one of the best pitchers in MLB. He wasn't real old, either. I think he was 30. Bregman will be 32 and is far from the "best."

I'm not saying I don't want him, and surely we will be much worse without him or the like, but he's just not "the guy," to me.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

but he has not had a great year since 2019. The guy carried a 157 OPS+ from 2028-2019. That is greatness.

But like I always say, that's baked into the price.  They're talking $300M or so for Tucker, and he's never broken 5.5 bWAR.  Bichette only had a 3.5 last year.  If Bregman was still carrying a 157 OPS+, you'd be looking at closer to $40M per.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

One of the beat reporters said we offered 6 years and 171.5 million. 
Some people think the cubs are going hard after Bregman. Others think it is Arizona. 
 

no one is mentioning Detroit, but everybody says our offer mirrors the Detroit offer from last year! 

$174M/6 likely gets it done. Counting inflation that's pretty close to the Story deal of $140M/6 back in '22. Story had the whole "COL home field advantage" tag laid on him, but he was 29 and also a GG caliber infielder, like Breggie.

I'd be okay with that, but I still feel like he would not have been they guy I'd break the trend on.

I totally get the point on not having to trade anyone away to get him, like we'd have to do to get KMarte. That part sucks, but KMarte's AAV is closer to $15M, while Breggies might double that. We can turn blue arguing how JH can and should spend more, but IMO, he'll never even repeat the DD spending era again. If he spends big, it will be short spurts, followed by fall-backs. Adding Bregman's contract will restrict further spending.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But like I always say, that's baked into the price.  They're talking $300M or so for Tucker, and he's never broken 5.5 bWAR.  Bichette only had a 3.5 last year.  If Bregman was still carrying a 157 OPS+, you'd be looking at closer to $40M per.

Indeed, even at 32 years old.

To me, that was so long ago, it's not worth talking about. Breggie has had a 6 year "red flag" and has not been Mr. Consistency in the last 2 years. Surprise: 2 years ago he turned 30.

Do we really want our one large and long deal to go to this?

fWAR trends...

5.4>4.4>4.2>3.5 (age 31) Bregman

4.9>4.8>3.9>0.3>3.8 (age 27) Bichette

This was Story: 4.7>6.0>2.0>2.2 (age 29) before we signed him.

We extended Devers after this: 6.5>0.8>4.2>5.0 (age 25)

Maybe we should. I'm not sure what's the right thing to do. Knowing our luck, we'll make the wrong choice, no matter what we do.

 

 

[JoeBrady]

51 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

One of the beat reporters said we offered 6 years and 171.5 million. 
Some people think the cubs are going hard after Bregman. Others think it is Arizona. 
 

no one is mentioning Detroit, but everybody says our offer mirrors the Detroit offer from last year! 

I'd ignore all of them.  Negotiating against rumors is useless.  Put a number on him, put an expiration date on him, and move on.  You hope he accepts.  Alternatively, you could weight Option A against option B and C.  If the RS are indifferent to Bregman at $140M/5, Bichette at $160M/6, or Marte for Early, then you just see which option you come closest to.

[Larry Cook]

48 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

When it comes to Bregman, I don't really care how much or how many, because we all agree the Red Sox need more good ballplayers.

Because when we get right down to it, how many All-Star big leaguers are even available?

 

The “good ball player” hole on our team is a number 2 starting pitcher! 
another left handed relief pitcher would also be greatly appreciated. 

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The “good ball player” hole on our team is a number 2 starting pitcher! 
another left handed relief pitcher would also be greatly appreciated. 

I'm not sure I'd call Gray a "hole" but the best part about getting a #2 is that Gray becomes one of baseball's best #3's, Bello is a very nice #4 and the rest can fight over one slot- not two.

Projected fWAR

5.7 Crochet

3.9 Gray

3.1 Anthony

2.9 Rafaela

2.2 Abreu

2.1 Duran

2.1 Narvaez

2.0 Bello

1.9 Contreras & Story

1.8 Mayer

1.6 Sandoval

1.5 Romy & Chapman

Gray is projected as our second best player, but you think he's a hole that needs fixing.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Correct. There are indeed a few red flags with Bregman. His age, he got hurt last year, his 2025 didnt end great, his 2024 didnt start great

And if none of these red flags existed, he would be getting 600m

Not as his age he wouldn't. His production per year isn't worth it either. He just doesn't have the Soto/Ohtani ceiling. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd ignore all of them.  Negotiating against rumors is useless.  Put a number on him, put an expiration date on him, and move on.  You hope he accepts.  Alternatively, you could weight Option A against option B and C.  If the RS are indifferent to Bregman at $140M/5, Bichette at $160M/6, or Marte for Early, then you just see which option you come closest to.

I don't believe there are many suitors out there. I also don't believe the 6/170 rumors. That amount is most likely higher than what the Sox offered. 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not as his age he wouldn't. His production per year isn't worth it either. He just doesn't have the Soto/Ohtani ceiling. 

As I keep saying he’s a good player, but he’s not a Mike Schmidt, or George Brett, and he’s starting to get older, so I don’t think he’s someone worth going large, and long on like 5 years. I said the first contract, which was 3 years was just right in years.

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe there are many suitors out there. I also don't believe the 6/170 rumors. That amount is most likely higher than what the Sox offered. 

There are so many rumors, and reports out there that none of them may even be true. The Red Sox May have made an offer, but most likely not good enough to BorASS, and Bregman.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

There are so many rumors, and reports out there that none of them may even be true. The Red Sox May have made an offer, but most likely not good enough to BorASS, and Bregman.

If they were that good, he would have signed. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe there are many suitors out there. I also don't believe the 6/170 rumors. That amount is most likely higher than what the Sox offered. 

I agree, but it makes me wonder. If their offer is $120M/3 or $150M/4, why not offer the additional $50M/3 or $20M/2 to get to $170M/6?

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but it makes me wonder. If their offer is $120M/3 or $150M/4, why not offer the additional $50M/3 or $20M/2 to get to $170M/6?

I don't believe it's a high value short term deal like that. 

[mvp 78]

If I had to guess, it's more like 5/140 (Tigers offer last year less 2025 season, in effect the Sox paying him 6/ 180). 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but it makes me wonder. If their offer is $120M/3 or $150M/4, why not offer the additional $50M/3 or $20M/2 to get to $170M/6?

A big NO on $170/6, or anything close. 3 yrs, or 4 years max, and then MOVE on.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If I had to guess, it's more like 5/140 (Tigers offer last year less 2025 season, in effect the Sox paying him 6/ 180). 

It is more likely they offered 4 or maybe even 5 years than the same offer. I agree.

On your $140M/5 offer, adding $30M/1 would be a major change- one more year and a higher AAV.