Red Sox acquire Wilson Contreras From Cardinals

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

According to B-R, he has no PAs vs NYY.
1.338 v TOR 13 PAs

1.203 v TBR 14 PAs

.143 v BAL 14 PAs

.690 at Fenway in 14 PAs

Sample sizes are too small to make anything of them.

Wow!!  Thanks for posting!!  

[vjcsmoke]

21 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

For who?

We gave up some scrubs. Dobbins and our #17th overall pitching prospect Fajardo who is 19 and only in single A.

Honestly I'm pretty upbeat on this trade.

Yes Contreras is 33 but he's quite good defensively at 1B and has a decent bat with a career OPS of around .800. In a pinch you could even run him out at Catcher if you have a rash of injuries.

Of course the main reason that the Red Sox traded for Contreras is that the Cardinals ate 8 million of his salary. So Contreras will only cost the Red Sox 27m over the next 2 years. 2028 is a club option so they can easily opt out of his age 36 season if they want to save 20m in cash.

Yes we went bargain bin shopping, but it feels like Breslow found one of the keepers out of the discount deals barrel. No Contreras is still not on par with Bregman or Devers but he fills our 1B hole for a cheap price. He's essentially a decent band-aid player on a 2 year short term deal until we find a better solution later.

[moonslav59]

Contreras by sample sizes:

.793 2024-2025 (43rd out of 155 w 900+ PAs)

.817 2023-2025 (26th with 1400+ PAs)

.813 2022-2025 (Only 22 players had a better OPS and more PAs)

.809 2021-2025 (Only 23 players had a better OPS and more PAs)

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we trade Duran or Rafaela as part of getting Marte, the financial cost will be less than $10M AAV.

If we don't get Marte, my guess is we sign Okamoto or E Suarez or trade for Paredes, Vientos or Donovan. HOU really wants an OF'er. The NYMs seem to not want Vientos. The Cardinals seem to want all our players, so why not one more STL-BOS trade?

Imagine we go the whole winter with no significant FA signing!

No more Cardinals.  That team went 78-84 last year  and won’t get better by moving it East piece-by-piece.

Houston has they’re not moving Paredes. Even if thats just posturing, it means they want too much.

Vientos for Casas actually makes sense for both teams.  A swap of two hitters with good seasons in the past, both roughly the same age (Vientos is 35 days older), both lousy fielders, both are redundant on their current team but plays a position the other’s team lost to free agency, Casas had a secretary named Vientos…

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

We gave up some scrubs. Dobbins and our #17th overall pitching prospect Fajardo who is 19 and only in single A.

Honestly I'm pretty upbeat on this trade.

Yes Contreras is 33 but he's quite good defensively at 1B and has a decent bat with a career OPS of around .800. In a pinch you could even run him out at Catcher if you have a rash of injuries.

Of course the main reason that the Red Sox traded for Contreras is that the Cardinals ate 8 million of his salary. So Contreras will only cost the Red Sox 27m over the next 2 years. 2028 is a club option so they can easily opt out of his age 36 season if they want to save 20m in cash.

Yes we went bargain bin shopping, but it feels like Breslow found one of the keepers out of the discount deals barrel. No Contreras is still not on par with Bregman or Devers but he fills our 1B hole for a cheap price. He's essentially a decent band-aid player on a 2 year short term deal until we find a better solution later.

He's not the Power bat I wanted, but we could still add that.

He's a pretty good hitter, as you point out, and his defense was pretty good, too.

2022-2025 OPS+ (OBP/SLG)

134 Schwarber (.349/.507)

134 Alonso (.337/.501)

133 KMarte (.357/.492)

126 Contreras (.356/.461)

126 Bregman (.351/.451)

118 Suarez (.318/.461)

118 Bichette (.333/.453)

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

No more Cardinals.  That team went 78-84 last year  and won’t get better by moving it East piece-by-piece.

Houston has they’re not moving Paredes. Even if thats just posturing, it means they want too much.

Vientos for Casas actually makes sense for both teams.  A swap of two hitters with good seasons in the past, both roughly the same age (Vientos is 35 days older), both lousy fielders, both are redundant on their current team but plays a position the other’s team lost to free agency, Casas had a secretary named Vientos…

Lots of talk down here in HOU that Paredes will be traded. Nobody wants Walker. Altuve sucks in LF. Pena is a keeper.  Correa is going to play 3B. They have Yordan to DH and avoid injury.

HOU needs an OF'er.

Some are saying the Sox want too much for Duran, Abreu or Rafaela, so maybe there is a match.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's not the Power bat I wanted, but we could still add that.

He's a pretty good hitter, as you point out, and his defense was pretty good, too.

2022-2025 OPS+ (OBP/SLG)

134 Schwarber (.349/.507)

134 Alonso (.337/.501)

133 KMarte (.357/.492)

126 Contreras (.356/.461)

126 Bregman (.351/.451)

118 Suarez (.318/.461)

118 Bichette (.333/.453)

His bat has been better than Bregman, Bichette and Suarez, so those thinking this dumpster diving are misinformed.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I really like Dobbins too and hate to see him go.  It's always tough to trade away pitching, though easier to do when you have a supposed surplus.  I guess the key is to trade away the right ones.

I was also wondering what this means for Casas.  I had him penciled in as our starting first baseman.  Apparently, the Red Sox don't think he'll be ready to go until later in the season.  It's nice to have that depth.

Can Contreras still catch in a pinch?  That's another plus to getting him.

Yeah the thought crossed my mind too, and even if he can't, the guy has plenty of experience - good for the younger guys to lean on him if needed.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com said that STL was considering playing Contreras at catcher some in 2027.

[Deja Doh]

8 hours ago, Old Red said:

Trading Abreu would be alright too.

Abreu can hit, get on base and play defense.  He's out best proven outfielder.  Trading him makes no sense.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Deja Doh said:

Abreu can hit, get on base and play defense.  He's out best proven outfielder.  Trading him makes no sense.

Agreed, although Anthony is about as near to be proven as can be.

Even if Fenway's RF was not the most difficult RF in MLB, I'd keep Abreu.

I love defense up the middle, and even I would rather trade Rafaela than Abreu. (Needing offense is what tips the balance, there. If we traded for KMarte, I'd be okay with giving up Duran not Rafaela.)

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I expected pushback here for losing Yoiker,

I think that's the RS taking advantage of a strange set of circumstances.  Booser cost us nothing, had a few good months, and we traded him for a decent prospect.  Then traded Fajardo for a decent pro.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think that's the RS taking advantage of a strange set of circumstances.  Booser cost us nothing, had a few good months, and we traded him for a decent prospect.  Then traded Fajardo for a decent pro.

I kinda felt the same about trading Yorke for Priester, then trading Priester for 3 prospects, then...

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I kinda felt the same about trading Yorke for Priester, then trading Priester for 3 prospects, then...

I still agree 100%.  We got Priester for Yorke, and after 48 IPs, traded him for a nice return.  That's a slam dunk.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I still agree 100%.  We got Priester for Yorke, and after 48 IPs, traded him for a nice return.  That's a slam dunk.

I might be too high on Holobetz, but Marcus Phillips, the comp pick we got in that trade, might end up being the biggest prize. (YRod is still young enough- 20-  to turn things around, too.)

[JoeBrady]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I might be too high on Holobetz, but Marcus Phillips, the comp pick we got in that trade, might end up being the biggest prize. (YRod is still young enough- 20-  to turn things around, too.)

It almost doesn't matter.

We gave up someone that we had given up on, for a semi-failed prospect.

Then traded that prospect, who might've ranked #12 in our system, for other prospects.  Priester was unlikely to have ever been given a shot.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It almost doesn't matter.

We gave up someone that we had given up on, for a semi-failed prospect.

Then traded that prospect, who might've ranked #12 in our system, for other prospects.  Priester was unlikely to have ever been given a shot.

Priester would have gotten a shot, as we ended up trying everybody, trading for Dustin May and then adding 2 rookies to the 40 befre we needed to meet Rule 5 requirements.

That being said, he was maybe 10th to 12 on our depth chart and was not viewed as likely to get a chance to pitch, so I get why we did it.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

he was maybe 10th to 12 on our depth chart and was not viewed as likely to get a chance to pitch,

might've ranked #12 in our system,... Priester was unlikely to have ever been given a shot.

Hmmm, that does sound familiar.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

might've ranked #12 in our system,... Priester was unlikely to have ever been given a shot.

Hmmm, that does sound familiar.

Yup, and then the SP'ers fell like dominoes and Newcomb sucked as a starter.

[UtahSox]

21 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

You have 4 starting caliber players for 3 positions.  I don't understand the "you don't do this" argument when that's literally what you do.  That's what teams do, when they have surplus they trade it. 

you specifically said 
“you could logically trade one of those guys for a prospect haul to restock your farm‘

To which my rebuttal was I think if you’re in a championship window…. (Breslows words) You don’t trade a gold glove center fielder, or a 4.7 WAR guy to restock the farm system. You use those chips to make the team considerably better. And if that trade isn’t available, you keep the 4 OFers, play Rafaela at SS/2b when those players have an off Day, with Duran in Center. Then have Duran DH 60-70% of time. That will help team win much more than trading Duran for a 2029 left fielder. Duran > Yoshida…. So unless a trade helps team now, you don’t make that trade. 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

you specifically said 
“you could logically trade one of those guys for a prospect haul to restock your farm‘

To which my rebuttal was I think if you’re in a championship window…. (Breslows words) You don’t trade a gold glove center fielder, or a 4.7 WAR guy to restock the farm system. You use those chips to make the team considerably better. And if that trade isn’t available, you keep the 4 OFers, play Rafaela at SS/2b when those players have an off Day, with Duran in Center. Then have Duran DH 60-70% of time. That will help team win much more than trading Duran for a 2029 left fielder. Duran > Yoshida…. So unless a trade helps team now, you don’t make that trade. 

First off, let me reiterate the comment "one of those guys" to which you specifically seem to defend the ideal of trading Rafaela "ok so trade Duran then" lol.  

It's not like what I'm saying is far fetched, it has been suggested and predicted by just about every single pundit out there that the Sox will trade from their outfield depth. 

Right now, I'd say it would make more sense to trade from your surplus to plug up a hole E.G. 3B or 2B. but if they went out and signed one of those guys a trade still makes sense for assets.  You have a clear defined spot for Yoshida on your roster who isn't prototypical or elite but he is a good hitter at DH. 

I also disagree that keeping farm assets and restocking the farm isn't in the best interest of being in a "championship window"

Teams in championship windows trade for elite assets at the deadline, something you won't be able to do with a depleted farm and would certainly have an easier time doing over your competition with a deeper farm. 

What if Crochet goes down, or Anthony, or Story or whoever? It's not like high end prospects are just trophy's you put on the wall to show your friend how cool your prospects are. They're used to trade for MLB pieces and provide depth when guys get hurt. 

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Abreu can hit, get on base and play defense.  He's out best proven outfielder.  Trading him makes no sense.

Cora has recently said Abreu has graduated from platoon status.  Whether they actually are confident giving him more at bats vs. LHP or the FO has told him someone is getting traded and he will start we do not know.

But we do know is we have 4 starting outfielders for 3 positions.  The Sox are most likely going to trade one of those guys. 

Whatever argument anyone can come up with to why a guy should not be traded, is also the argument for why they should get a better return for them. 

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Cora has recently said Abreu has graduated from platoon status.  Whether they actually are confident giving him more at bats vs. LHP or the FO has told him someone is getting traded and he will start we do not know.

But we do know is we have 4 starting outfielders for 3 positions.  The Sox are most likely going to trade one of those guys. 

Whatever argument anyone can come up with to why a guy should not be traded, is also the argument for why they should get a better return for them. 

Hard to say what's going to happen.  We were expecting Duran or Abreu to be traded last offseason and it didn't happen, and it hasn't happened yet this offseason.  Maybe they're just not getting enticing offers. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hard to say what's going to happen.  We were expecting Duran or Abreu to be traded last offseason and it didn't happen, and it hasn't happened yet this offseason.  Maybe they're just not getting enticing offers. 

But we didn't have Roman Anthony coming into the mix last year.  You have one more starter in the outfield so 2026 is a little different. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hard to say what's going to happen.  We were expecting Duran or Abreu to be traded last offseason and it didn't happen, and it hasn't happened yet this offseason.  Maybe they're just not getting enticing offers. 

Add:

If I was a betting man, I would bet the opposite here, because we've seen the market for position players has been sky high this year and the Red Sox have been said to value Duran very highly. 

They could be waiting to see who losses out on the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, because one of those teams might up their offer when that happens. 

Sox should get a haul for anyone of their outfielders. 

[mvp 78]

"We gave up some scrubs." 

Fajardo was the best player given up on the Red Sox side of the deal. Any rankings that had him 17th are out of date. He's far away, but he has a better ceiling than Dobbins. 

The deal is fine. It's the Sox saving money by spending prospect capital instead of FA capital. 💸

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sox should get a haul for anyone of their outfielders. 

They would not get a haul for platoon Abreu. Duran had one excellent season and is getting LESS calls than Rafaela according to reports. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Add:

If I was a betting man, I would bet the opposite here, because we've seen the market for position players has been sky high this year and the Red Sox have been said to value Duran very highly. 

They could be waiting to see who losses out on the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, because one of those teams might up their offer when that happens. 

Sox should get a haul for anyone of their outfielders. 

I don’t know about a haul for any of the OF. Abreu has been a platoon, and I think Duran’s value was higher last year at this time.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They would not get a haul for platoon Abreu. Duran had one excellent season and is getting LESS calls than Rafaela according to reports. 

Well the term "haul" is subjective I was talking in the aggregate of their outfield talent obviously the return is going to vary by player.  

I wouldn't under estimate how much teams might be willing to pay for Rafaela or Duran, I read that report too and that was a long time ago.  There's been a lot of silence on this front but that doesn't mean conversations haven't been happening behind the scenes. 

If they make a move, which I'd say is 60-70% likely they trade a starting outfielder.  It's going to be very interesting to see what they get in return or what was available. 

[Hugh2]

Geeze, you say one word and people freak out.  Haul is subjective; what is a haul? a top 25 prospect? 2 top 50 prosects? 3 top 100 prospects? or is it amorphous and vary in comparision to the value of the player being traded????  Regardless of how YOU want to define it my position is the Sox can get good value back in return for their outfielders.  Trade prices are high, teams are in need of offense, and they have young cost controlled assets.