Third Baseman Ketel Marte Is On the Boston Red Sox's Radar

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

And being in the basement means we are sellers at the deadline.

Great - we can trade for some prospects who make minimum wage and give us another pretension of contention in a few years.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Great - we can trade for some prospects who make minimum wage and give us another pretension of contention in a few years.

The sham could continue!

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The sham could continue!

 

[drewski6]

My spiderman v spiderman comment would prob be

"postional veratility" on one spiderman and "noodlebat" on the other.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not a Suarez fan, but no way we take on Marte's 5 years and then sign a FA to 4+ years. That's where Suarez comes into play.

If we could get Suarez for two years, I'd much prefer that to trading for Marte.  It's just the opposite of my Mayer/Marte calculus.  In this case, we lose a little on the first two years, and make it up in the next four years by virtue of not carrying 4 years of Marte's salary.

And, of course, we would retain Duran's trade value.  So it is the equivalent of adding Marte, or adding Suarez + someone like Lodolo.

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

And being in the basement means we are sellers at the deadline.

Cellar sellers?

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If we could get Suarez for two years, I'd much prefer that to trading for Marte.  It's just the opposite of my Mayer/Marte calculus.  In this case, we lose a little on the first two years, and make it up in the next four years by virtue of not carrying 4 years of Marte's salary.

And, of course, we would retain Duran's trade value.  So it is the equivalent of adding Marte, or adding Suarez + someone like Lodolo.

I think KMarte has 2-3 really good years in him and then 2-3 pretty good ones to end his contract. Just a guess. I think he is light years better than any remaining option for boosting the offense. He also fills a decade long hole at 2B- once and for all.

I think Suarez gets 3 years minimum, and I'd rather give $65M/3 than than $48M/2, especially since he probably wont take 2 years.

Getting both would mean we could trade Mayer for a really good pitcher (Ryan?) or play Suarez at 1B and mayer at 3B. We could keep Duran in the line-up. We could even go overboard and trade Rafaela for Lodolo.

Crochet, Ryan, Lodolo, Gray, Bello

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Suarez 3B (1B maybe)

5. L Casas 1B/R Romy 1B 

6. R Story SS

7. L Abreu RF

8. L Masa DH/R Romy DH

9. R Narvaez C

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Cellar sellers?

Sell out cellar dweller sellers.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think KMarte has 2-3 really good years in him and then 2-3 pretty good ones to end his contract.

Anything can happen, but last year, in all of baseball, there were only two players aged 34-37, that supplied more than 2.3 fWAR.  At a level of 2.4 or higher, their specific age brackets:

34 -0- players

35 2 players

36 -0- players

37 -0- players

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Anything can happen, but last year, in all of baseball, there were only two players aged 34-37, that supplied more than 2.3 fWAR.  At a level of 2.4 or higher, their specific age brackets:

34 -0- players

35 2 players

36 -0- players

37 -0- players

Good points. I'm not sure why the 2.3 cut-off, but I'll roll with it.

I used fangraphs 2025 and 300+ PAs.

4 out of the 20 player sample size had an fWAR of 2.3 or more.

30-33 year olds: 39 out of 77

26-29: 39/101

22-25: 31/73

All way higher numbers and percentages.

I'll do a deeper dive, later.

[UtahSox]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If we could get Suarez for two years, I'd much prefer that to trading for Marte.  It's just the opposite of my Mayer/Marte calculus.  In this case, we lose a little on the first two years, and make it up in the next four years by virtue of not carrying 4 years of Marte's salary.

And, of course, we would retain Duran's trade value.  So it is the equivalent of adding Marte, or adding Suarez + someone like Lodolo.

wait let me get this straight,  you’re scared of the backslide of players at 35-37 so you want to NOT trade for a 32 year old, 1 year removed from mid 6 WAR. But rather sign 36 year old to a short term deal that hit .189 after the all star break? That’s some Breslow type thinking right there. Worried about the 2029 season right now.? 

Is your goal just to backdoor into playoffs like we did in 2025? And score 6 runs in 3 games and call it good? Or worse miss the playoffs completely because 3 other teams in AL East are serious about winning right now? Marte is a much better player than Suarez. Not even close…..

2026 Red Sox should resign Bregman. Trade for Marte. Trade for Contreras. Go try to win a World Series! Trade at deadline for another really good pitcher and win it in 2026. 

 

[UtahSox]

Been reading/ listening through all this sh*t/ twitter for the last day….  Good hell this organization needs some Dave Dombrowski/ AJ Preller type leadership right now. Paralysis by analysis. Just DO SOMETHING Beta Breslow. 
I won’t criticize, but grab a bat and get in the box and swing. Free Agency will never work with Beta Breslows logic value models, because market dictates value, and Beta Breslow scared of shadow types will never compete. Probably the worst thing that ever happened to him, was getting lucky on AB2 last year. Breslow would be the perfect general manager for the Colorado Rockies. GTFOH with this beta thinking and the effing Boston Red Sox.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I used fangraphs 2025 and 300+ PAs.

I did this about a week ago and used the same 300.  I forgot this time, but thought that if I had to reach to 300, it is still not a great recommendation.  But the numbers you supply shows how steep the cut-off is.

[JoeBrady]

45 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

you’re scared of the backslide of players at 35-37 so you want to NOT trade for a 32 year old, 1 year removed from mid 6 WAR. But rather sign 36 year old to a short term deal that hit .189 after the all star break? That’s some Breslow type thinking right there. Worried about the 2029 season right now.? 

Is your goal just to backdoor into playoffs like we did in 2025?

1-I am scared of the backslide of 5 weak and non-existent seasons at the benefit of gaining two very good seasons.

2-A very important piece of my calculus was that I would be using Duran to obtain a #2, as opposed to obtaining Marte.

At the end of the day, will we better off with Marte or with Suarez + Lodolo?

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I did this about a week ago and used the same 300.  I forgot this time, but thought that if I had to reach to 300, it is still not a great recommendation.  But the numbers you supply shows how steep the cut-off is.

Before I looked, I expected massive sample size differences and the percent of success to be closer than it was. The drop off, at least in 2025 was profound at 300 PAs.

How about 150 PAs cutoff?

Only 28 players 34-37 made the cut.

8 at 2.1+

7 from 1.1 to 2.0 (15 at 1.1+) 54%

22 are above 0

2 at 0

4 in negative (14%)

_________________

30-33 (99 player sample size is over 3 x more than 34-37 yr olds)

41 at 2.1 or more

15 at 1.1 to 2.0 (56/99 are at 1.1 or more) 59% does not blow 34-37 away, but there are some whoppingly big fWARs in this group)

81 are plus

1 at 0

17 are negative (17% shows more also suck, as a percentage)

__________________

26-29 has a 146 players w 150+ PAs (50% more than 30-33 and over 5 X the oldest group!)

43 are at 2.1 or more

33 from 1.1 to 2.0 (76/146 at 1.1 or more) 52%, which is lower than both older groups,

114 at 0.1 or more

5 at 0

27 are negative (18% is worse than the older groups)

____________________________

I'm not sure what this all means. There were less older players than I thought. The ones that stick around suck less than younger players, but they don't reach the highs either. As a percent in each group by fWAR, there are not massive differentials by numbers, but if you add up all the WAR values and divided by how many in the group, I think we'd see stark differences.

I was surprised the 30-33 look better than 26-29.

[UtahSox]

I saw on Twitter that the Rays are still main vocal competition for Marte? I just don’t logically understand why they would go after him? They are clearly the least talented team in the AL East, and are clearly getting rid of their veteran talent, and punting on trying to compete in the AL East in 2026 through 2027 for sure. So what would a Marte trade do for them just doesn’t make any sense? I also acknowledge any team could jump in at any point. You never know what’s going on, but it just doesn’t feel like the Rays would be trading for Marte? Anyone else have any insight?

[UtahSox]

Other teams, I think make more sense than the Tampa Bay Rays:

I think the Mariners would be a killer fit if Dbacks want close to MLB prospects, not mlb ready…. Dodgers could trade Glasnow for Marte if they want pitching now? Maybe the Padres doesn’t make sense… but AJ Preller is crazy man? KC could form best middle infield in baseball, have pitchers to trade?

A month ago I thought it was really important for the Red Sox to sign Marte before AB2 for negotiating purposes. Now I think with Alonso off the table. (Guy I wanted most) The inverse is now true. We should sign Bregman first. Tell everybody “we are very comfortable and happy with Mayer at second base” or that “we are willing to sign both Bichette and AB2” 

Then trade for Marte as DBacks leverage is diminished….. maybe Mayer+ Witherspoon for Marte. 
 

lastly, I recognized my thoughts are all over the place thanks for reading. If you got this far, I guess this is kind of par for the course for talksox? 

[JoeBrady]

36 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I saw on Twitter that the Rays are still main vocal competition for Marte? I just don’t logically understand why they would go after him? They are clearly the least talented team in the AL East, and are clearly getting rid of their veteran talent, and punting on trying to compete in the AL East in 2026 through 2027 for sure. So what would a Marte trade do for them just doesn’t make any sense? I also acknowledge any team could jump in at any point. You never know what’s going on, but it just doesn’t feel like the Rays would be trading for Marte? Anyone else have any insight?

My guess is that this is mostly GMs dropping mis-direction, mixed in with writers making stuff up.  Along with maybe having GMs with Plan A, B, C, etc.  It could be that Breslow had a legitimate interest in some of these guys, but other teams had more of an interest, or a better fit, or expect to be fired without a lot of improvement, and figure they might as well mortgage the future rather than get fired.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My guess is that this is mostly GMs dropping mis-direction, mixed in with writers making stuff up.  Along with maybe having GMs with Plan A, B, C, etc.  It could be that Breslow had a legitimate interest in some of these guys, but other teams had more of an interest, or a better fit, or expect to be fired without a lot of improvement, and figure they might as well mortgage the future rather than get fired.

I agree, but I often wonder how much Brez misguesses what some of the FAs will end up getting. "Showing interest" and underbidding by 1-2 years and or $5+M a year is sort of like wasting time and energy.

I get the idea that you have to "kick the tires," but sometimes our reported offers look absurd.

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get the idea that you have to "kick the tires," but sometimes our reported offers look absurd.

I doubt we, or anyone else, know what the offers are.  It could also that Brez, or anyone else, puts in an opening lowball offer just to get the party started,   Then 2-3 others jump in and Brez doesn't see the need to get involved.  I'd liken it to any one of us buying a house, or in my case, a castle.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/17/2025 at 7:46 AM, mvp 78 said:

They are just going to sit around and hope a below market guy to fall into their laps. If they are lucky, Ryan O'Hearn is available in February, wants a one year deal and the market for Suarez never developed. 

Under their dumb constraints, I would have just re-signed Bregman and brought in Hoskins. If another guy has his market crash, you'd be able to grab him too later on. 

problem is that those guys will not sign a 1 yr deal.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I doubt we, or anyone else, know what the offers are.  It could also that Brez, or anyone else, puts in an opening lowball offer just to get the party started,   Then 2-3 others jump in and Brez doesn't see the need to get involved.  I'd liken it to any one of us buying a house, or in my case, a castle.

That very well could be the  case, and it's understandable.

The one certain fact is that we never feel like we value the best FAs, financially as much as others do, unless they are willing to take one or two year deals. That puts us in a box.

We've rarely been successful with these shorter deals, and even the biggest success story, Bregman, only played 114 games. (Okay, Chapman was a big one year success, but that was kind of surprising.)

The last big FA signing had us rumored as bidding against only ourselves and way overpaying for Yoshida. The one before that, Trevor Story, was largely seen as a precursor to replacing Bogey, but nevertheless, it was a pretty large and long deal. Not top of the line, but pretty big and pretty long.

The Sale extension and Nate resigning were the last somewhat large and long deals signed, until the Devers & Crochet extensions.

I may be wishful thinking here, and maybe it's actually a dumb idea, but I think this could and should be the winter we break the mold and splurge on a quality  player for 3 or more years and $20-25M+ a year- maybe even 4 x $25-29M or 5 x $20-26M.

The history argues against such signings, but the history of winning teams shows most have one or more of these deals on their budget. My hopes are as follows (in order):

1. We trade for Marte (hopefully not Tolle or Early.)

2. We sign Bregman.

3. We sign Suarez. (Two of these 3 would be nice, as we could then trade Mayer & Rafaela/Duran for an ace.)

4. Trade for an ace OR SOLID #2. (Maybe sign Ranger Suarez)

(Bichette is a distant 5th, and I'd rather we just trade for Donovan, Contreras, Murphy or Y Diaz types as consolation prizes.)

 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

problem is that those guys will not sign a 1 yr deal.

There don't seem to be any 1 year Bregman type deals out there, but we have seen Polanco and M Kelly sign 2 year deals and H-S Kim to a 1 year deal. Any of those three could have helped, and my guess is more will sign for 1-2 years, but yes, not the top-of-the-line FAs.

IMO, we needed 2-3 major additions, and perhaps Gray sort of filled one. Polanco might have sort of filled another. Is there another Polanco? Maybe Suarez signs for 2 years. He's been good for a while and never gets the long deal.

Could Bichette not like the top offer and sign a show me, one year deal or something like Bregman's deal with an opt out after year 1?

Maybe the 5 years on Marte's deal keeps us from offering the best package, but I'm certain he will be traded. To me, he is the top prize remaining- warts and all. I'm not sure if they want Duran, Rafaela or Campbell as the centerpiece. Maybe a third team can create the same effect. I would not add Tolle or Early to the package, but I'd offer two from Bennett, Oviedo, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, and either Witherspoon, Fajardo or Valera (maybe not both.) I understand that my habit of throwing more lesser players is not usually the winning offer, but we have to keep our best players and prospects.

[Randy Red Sox]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There don't seem to be any 1 year Bregman type deals out there, but we have seen Polanco and M Kelly sign 2 year deals and H-S Kim to a 1 year deal. Any of those three could have helped, and my guess is more will sign for 1-2 years, but yes, not the top-of-the-line FAs.

IMO, we needed 2-3 major additions, and perhaps Gray sort of filled one. Polanco might have sort of filled another. Is there another Polanco? Maybe Suarez signs for 2 years. He's been good for a while and never gets the long deal.

Could Bichette not like the top offer and sign a show me, one year deal or something like Bregman's deal with an opt out after year 1?

Maybe the 5 years on Marte's deal keeps us from offering the best package, but I'm certain he will be traded. To me, he is the top prize remaining- warts and all. I'm not sure if they want Duran, Rafaela or Campbell as the centerpiece. Maybe a third team can create the same effect. I would not add Tolle or Early to the package, but I'd offer two from Bennett, Oviedo, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, and either Witherspoon, Fajardo or Valera (maybe not both.) I understand that my habit of throwing more lesser players is not usually the winning offer, but we have to keep our best players and prospects.

no way do I trade Witherspoon either. We have gone far too long without any good SP prospects and should not be dealing any of the 3.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no way do I trade Witherspoon either. We have gone far too long without any good SP prospects and should not be dealing any of the 3.

I don't want to trade young pitching either, but two points:

1. If JH won't spend, and we can wish he does all we want, but if it doesn't happen, now, why will it happen when these young studs mature? Why wish for a future that looks the same as now?

2. We have a ton of ML ready Sp'ers and a ton or promising to very promising pitching prospects. I think we can afford to trade a couple. Just hope the next one is not the next Priester.

Crochet, Gray & Bello are needed.

We can afford to trade 2 or even 3 from this group, especially if we get a better pitcher in return: 

Oviedo, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin

I'd try very hard to not trade Tolle or Early, and maybe not Witherspoon, Fajardo and Valera, too, but we can afford to trade 1 from that group of 3. I say that because I have faith that 2-3 from this next group moves up to where those three are, now:

Bennett, Holobetz, Phillips, Eyanson, Mullins, Watson, Samaniego, Delzine, Monegro, Aita, Cason or a few others.

We barely have slots for all these guys in rotations across the minors. We need to identify the keepers, do a better job than we did with Priester and do something bold. We have to give to get. We need to move from quantity to quality as we are smack dab in the middle of a promising window. I'm not for trading away the future, but we can mortgage some of it. I'm not for trading them away for one and done players, either.

Again, waiting for JH to open up his wallet might be pointless and a waste of our thoughts and talks. I'd love for that to be our focus, but I'm not hopeful it will be. The only other way to build this team up another notch is by trades. Trading DHam, Wong and Hicks isn't getting us what we need.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't want to trade young pitching either, but

... but I just looked at the revised Soxprospects.com list and here's what's to glean:

Of Boston's Top 12 rated prospects, NINE ARE PITCHERS.

Of the three position players, one is 20 and the other two are teenagers. So... a ways away.

Yes, we graduated or traded away several promising position guys in the past year, but only one is a guaranteed regular in the starting line-up -- which needs help asap.

Swap some arms that throw for some bigger arms that swing the bat and make consistent contact. Or wait til the year after next year after next season after the next one.

[notin]

On 12/19/2025 at 6:21 PM, UtahSox said:

Been reading/ listening through all this sh*t/ twitter for the last day….  Good hell this organization needs some Dave Dombrowski/ AJ Preller type leadership right now..

Isn’t that kind of how all these budget crunch problems started?   The Sox didn’t spend more because DD told them to; they spent more because Henry allowed DD to…

[Duran Is The Man]

On 12/18/2025 at 9:08 PM, JoeBrady said:

Just curious, do you get anything for the credits?  Like, do you get paid for an article, or a few pennies per purchase?  How does that work?

no money.  just a mention for assisting one of the principal contributors.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... but I just looked at the revised Soxprospects.com list and here's what's to glean:

Of Boston's Top 12 rated prospects, NINE ARE PITCHERS.

Of the three position players, one is 20 and the other two are teenagers. So... a ways away.

Yes, we graduated or traded away several promising position guys in the past year, but only one is a guaranteed regular in the starting line-up -- which needs help asap.

Swap some arms that throw for some bigger arms that swing the bat and make consistent contact. Or wait til the year after next year after next season after the next one.

Tolle and Early may start the season in AAA and might be the best one-two pitching prospects in any farm system. Both are ML ready and actually have some experience there. Dobbins and Harrison graduated recently. We have a ton of young pitchers under control for many years.

I'm not for trading away a bunch of them. I do think we can trade 1-2 that are not at the top of any list in a package for a bat. I'm fine with trading away another 1-2 for an established pitcher with 2+ years of control or 1 with a sure extension to follow. We will have to convert some SP'ers to RP'ers or start the season with too many pitchers on the 40.

By age...

With MLB experience (10 SP'ers/ 7 w 3 or more years to go)

22 Tolle 5+ years of control

23 Early 5+

23 Harrison 5

25 Dobbins 5

26 Bello 5 year contract

26 Crochet 6 year contract

27 Oviedo 2 arbs

29 Crawford 3 arbs

29 Sandoval 1

36 Gray 1-2 yrs

RP'ers

27 Slaten 4 yrs

28 Moran 5

28 Hicks 2

29 Whitlock (1), 30 Weissert (4) & Kelly (4), 37 Chapman (2)

______________________________

 

No MLB experience (5+ years) 7 SP'ers at age 23 or older

17 Delzine

19 Valera, Fajardo & Cason

21 Witherspoon, Phillips

22 Aita

23 Holobetz & Monegro

24 Sandlin

25 Bennett

26 Mullins, Samaniego, Uberstine & Drohan

28 Watson

 

[moonslav59]

On 12/19/2025 at 5:57 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Great - we can trade for some prospects who make minimum wage and give us another pretension of contention in a few years.

Is the alternative any better?

You can shout for a regime change or for JH to spend more, but that's not anything that is likely to happen.

What can Brez do now, with a limited budget?