Third Baseman Ketel Marte Is On the Boston Red Sox's Radar

[JoeBrady]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony would be a waste at DH. I'd have him in LF and DH Duran. 

The position doesn't matter for comparison purposes.  It's the 2025 OPS v the starting 9 OPS   In an ideal world, Duran or Abreu get dealt.  Just for fun, if Duran gets dealt for Marte, it is a further increase of 180 OPS points.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony would be a waste at DH. I'd have him in LF and DH Duran. 

Agreed, but it won't change the offense.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Instead of going by players, go by position.  I am comparing our 2025 stats and the 2026 FG projections on a couple of select positions:

• 1B .691 FG Casas .792
• 2B .670 FG ? but almost anything is an improvement
• 3B .777 FG Mayer .728
• DH .823 FG Anthony .802

By the end of the season, Lowe had sort of fixed the major problem at 1B, Romy was playing near FT at 2B and doing better than KC/DHam and others before, Bregman was back at 3B, although he slumped over the last 25 games, and Masa came to life late.

Those season numbers are a bit deceiving. One could argue we won more without Devers to counter my point, but IMO, we have a lot to do to build up to just get to even.

IMO, we need to boost up from 2025.

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, we need to boost up from 2025.

My point is that we don't need drastic action.  If we upgrade to Marte, we'll easily be a top-10 scoring team, imo.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My point is that we don't need drastic action.  If we upgrade to Marte, we'll easily be a top-10 scoring team, imo.

I disagree. Count KMarte as making up for the 850 PAs by Devers and Bregman, which is a rosy view, but then we have Mayer/Romy instead of DHam/Romy on offense and Casas, instead of Casas, some bums and then Lowe. Some more PAs by Anthony and no major injuries, and maybe we get to even.

We weren't a top contender in 2025 and were at or near a top 10 offense. We should set our sights on staying even?

I'm not sure Gray and Oviedo make up for Gio & Buehler, but let's call that even.

No Wilson, Bernardino and others. Let's stretch again and cal that even.

When is staying even a winning strategy?

In a general sense, we can look at the roster and say, "Hey this team is pretty young and we should see some noticeable progressions. We can see more PAs from Anthony, Abreu and maybe Masa, but we know someone will get hurt. We should expect it and plan for it. We were not one big player away from a ring in 2025, and now we are supposed to strive for brining back the same or in kind players?

Then, what if Duran drops even more from his '24 season? What of Story gets hurt or declines? What of 2025 was Rafaela's peak offensive season? What if Narvaez, Anthony and others have a "sophomore slump?" What if Casas is the next Dalbec? Are any of these wonderings way off base?

We need to plan on major improvements with an emphasis on the plural. We need bold no status quo.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure Gray and Oviedo make up for Gio & Buehler, but let's call that even.

C'mon man. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

C'mon man. 

Okay, FIP and fWAR say hell yes, but Gray is a year older and Oviedo is a promise, of which we have 10 of them already.

I'm not pulling stats out of the air. I like ERA- and OPS Against.

ERA-

78 Bello 

________________

80 Giolito (145 IP) .685 OPSA

104 Gray (181 IP) .726 OPSA

115 Buehler (126 IP).795 OPSA

83 Oviedo (40 IP) .626 OPSA

Looks pretty close, to me.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

38 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My point is that we don't need drastic action.  If we upgrade to Marte, we'll easily be a top-10 scoring team, imo.

... if we trade for Marte AND also retain Bregman OR sign Bichette.

Don't overrate team stats and rankings. Boston averaged 4.85 runs per game last year, but scored 3 runs or less 72 times, including in all 3 playoff games. 

And unless Chapman is about to have another career year at the end of games, the Sox better upgrade the offense.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... if we trade for Marte AND also retain Bregman OR sign Bichette.

Don't overrate team stats and rankings. Boston averaged 4.85 runs per game last year, but scored 3 runs or less 72 times, including in all 3 playoff games. 

And unless Chapman is about to have another career year at the end of games, the Sox better upgrade the offense.

We also had a 35 point Home-Away OPS differential, so the offense was not really as good as the OPS showed. (We did score runs on the road more than we probably should have.)

We also went from .759 to .724 first half>second half.

I do think our offense will be near top 10 just brining back Bregman, but we need to strive for top 5 or 6, minimum.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

what if Duran drops even more from his '24 season? What of Story gets hurt or declines? What of 2025 was Rafaela's peak offensive season? What if Narvaez, Anthony and others have a "sophomore slump?" What if Casas is the next Dalbec?

If Duran, Story, Rafaela, Narvaez, Anthony and Casas all have bad seasons, then we are best off not signing anyone.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We also had a 35 point Home-Away OPS differential,

The league difference is 21 points.  Not that big a deal.  And we were 9th in OPS+.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We also went from .759 to .724 first half>second half.

We lost parts of Anthony, Abreu, and Bregman.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Count KMarte as making up for the 850 PAs by Devers and Bregman,

Just go position by position and compare what we did in 2025, compared to what FG considers out replacement(s).  If we add Marte, I am betting that we will have a better OPS in 2026.

[Kimmi]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

My point is that we don't need drastic action.  If we upgrade to Marte, we'll easily be a top-10 scoring team, imo.

Agree.  I have said before that I'd be okay going with our current roster of position players, though I fully admit there's some risk involved with that.  It would be nice to upgrade and to strengthen our depth, but I don't feel like anything drastic is needed.

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Agree.  I have said before that I'd be okay going with our current roster of position players, though I fully admit there's some risk involved with that.  It would be nice to upgrade and to strengthen our depth, but I don't feel like anything drastic is needed.

That's what I like about Okamoto.  He's a solid alternative to Mayer, Casas, or Yoshida, if something goes wrong.  And the downside, imho, is a very good backup for a reasonable price.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

We lost parts of Anthony, Abreu, and Bregman.

Anthony lost part of a rib, Breggie some leg tissue, and Abreu the tip of his finger from flipping off posters who say he can't hit lefties, and doesn't deserve TWO Gold Glove Awards as voted by Major League Managers and Coaches, and data from SABR's Defensive Index.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If Duran, Story, Rafaela, Narvaez, Anthony and Casas all have bad seasons, then we are best off not signing anyone.

I don't expect them all to, but seriously, we know one or two likely will, or someone unexpected will get hurt or have a down year.

I know you are not trying to say our whole plan is for in house players to all step up or carry the torch, but if the rest of the plan is just to strive for staying even, we are doing just that.

It's not like it can't happen. We DO have some really good young talent, and just as I am pointing out that a few players will disappoint us, a few ill likely do better than we expected or even hoped they'd do. We have a large selection of young, up-and-coming players that we don't need all of them to greatly improve- just a couple or three, maybe.

Maybe Casas has a great year, and Rafaela hits .590. Maybe Mayer does well, but Romy and Story decline from '25. Maybe we get Bregman, and he gets 650 PAs, but hits .750. Maybe Anthony doubles his PAs but does not match his '25 OPS. Maybe Mayer takes up the slack.

My point is, this team is so full or "maybes" and not many "shoulds" and "wills."

Where do you see us likely to be better, if we bring back Bregman and add a RP'er(s) that matches Matz/Wilson/Benardino?

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

We lost parts of Anthony, Abreu, and Bregman.

..and Devers too.

BTW, Bregman went down in May.

We did greatly improved at 1B (Lowe) and 2B (Romy) as the season went on.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

this team is so full or "maybes" and not many "shoulds" and "wills."

Every team has things that can go wrong?  Bregman can miss 48 games again.  Alonso can revert to his 2.6.  Bichette can revert to his -0.3.

Or, maybe Duran can revert to his 8.7.  Maybe Ceddanne continues his development and delivers a 5.5.  Maybe Casas reverts back to his .830 from his first three years.  Maybe Campbell reverts to his minor league player of the year form.  Maybe Mayer fulfills his top-15 rating.  You can't make plans based on everything going wrong.

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

I'm not sure Gray and Oviedo make up for Gio & Buehler, but let's call that even.

 

You crack me up. 😂

[Old Red]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree. Count KMarte as making up for the 850 PAs by Devers and Bregman, which is a rosy view, but then we have Mayer/Romy instead of DHam/Romy on offense and Casas, instead of Casas, some bums and then Lowe. Some more PAs by Anthony and no major injuries, and maybe we get to even.

We weren't a top contender in 2025 and were at or near a top 10 offense. We should set our sights on staying even?

I'm not sure Gray and Oviedo make up for Gio & Buehler, but let's call that even.

No Wilson, Bernardino and others. Let's stretch again and cal that even.

When is staying even a winning strategy?

In a general sense, we can look at the roster and say, "Hey this team is pretty young and we should see some noticeable progressions. We can see more PAs from Anthony, Abreu and maybe Masa, but we know someone will get hurt. We should expect it and plan for it. We were not one big player away from a ring in 2025, and now we are supposed to strive for brining back the same or in kind players?

Then, what if Duran drops even more from his '24 season? What of Story gets hurt or declines? What of 2025 was Rafaela's peak offensive season? What if Narvaez, Anthony and others have a "sophomore slump?" What if Casas is the next Dalbec? Are any of these wonderings way off base?

We need to plan on major improvements with an emphasis on the plural. We need bold no status quo.

I’m not sure the 2026 Cro Man will be as good as the 2025 Cro Man,and I’m not sure the 2026 Chapman will have another career year, and be as good as the 2025 Chapman. What if the Red Sox resign Bregman, and he doesn’t get off to the fast start like he did in 2025, and he reverts back to like he did in 2024?🤔

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

You crack me up. 😂

What?  You think Oviedo can out-perform Buehler's 5.45?

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

What?  You think Oviedo can out-perform Buehler's 5.45?

You're too young as a poster for me to know if this is sarcasm. 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

What if the Red Sox resign Bregman, and he doesn’t get off to the fast start like he did in 2025, and he reverts back to like he did in 2024?

All this nonsense falls under the category of "Yes, anything can happen".  It's like me arguing against acquiring a #2 because Early & Tolle "might" develop into legitimate #2 SPs.  Yes, that can happen.  But I plan on things that are more likely than less likely.

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

You're too young as a poster for me to know if this is sarcasm. 

LOL!  I have to go tell my spouse that someone called me young.  I just thought that you were being generous, and didn't want to call "Gray+Oviedo equals Buehler+Gio" an ill-founded comparison.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

LOL!  I have to go tell my spouse that someone called me young.  I just thought that you were being generous, and didn't want to call "Gray+Oviedo equals Buehler+Gio" an ill-founded comparison.

Young only as a poster! Those 400 posts are kindergarten around here! Ha!

Yes, it was a somewhat odd comment, but I like Moon, so didn't want to come across too harshly.

[notin]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

My point is that we don't need drastic action.  If we upgrade to Marte, we'll easily be a top-10 scoring team, imo.

Well, the Sox were 7th last year.  5 runs behind 6th (Ari). 20 runs behind 3rd (Mil)…

[notin]

On 12/10/2025 at 12:31 PM, moonslav59 said:

I disagree. Count KMarte as making up for the 850 PAs by Devers and Bregman, which is a rosy view, but then we have Mayer/Romy instead of DHam/Romy on offense and Casas, instead of Casas, some bums and then Lowe. Some more PAs by Anthony and no major injuries, and maybe we get to even.

We weren't a top contender in 2025 and were at or near a top 10 offense. We should set our sights on staying even?

I'm not sure Gray and Oviedo make up for Gio & Buehler, but let's call that even.

No Wilson, Bernardino and others. Let's stretch again and cal that even.

When is staying even a winning strategy?

In a general sense, we can look at the roster and say, "Hey this team is pretty young and we should see some noticeable progressions. We can see more PAs from Anthony, Abreu and maybe Masa, but we know someone will get hurt. We should expect it and plan for it. We were not one big player away from a ring in 2025, and now we are supposed to strive for brining back the same or in kind players?

Then, what if Duran drops even more from his '24 season? What of Story gets hurt or declines? What of 2025 was Rafaela's peak offensive season? What if Narvaez, Anthony and others have a "sophomore slump?" What if Casas is the next Dalbec? Are any of these wonderings way off base?

We need to plan on major improvements with an emphasis on the plural. We need bold no status quo.

It’s really weird how the Sox could be a top 7 offense, lose Bregman, and suddenly they’re 3 players short.  Or is it 5?

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s really weird how the Sox could be a top 7 offense, lose Bregman, and suddenly they’re 3 players short.  Or is it 5?

I’m against quantity . We lost more than Bregman. The others lost did as good as he did combined and for more PS combined.

i want 2 and have been consistent on that.

[Larry Cook]

On 12/10/2025 at 9:57 AM, mvp 78 said:

Anthony would be a waste at DH. I'd have him in LF and DH Duran. 

I agree!  Duran should probably be in center field for the Mets or Phillies