Sox to acquire Sonny Gray

[FredLynn]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

I did take out 2025.  I looked at 2020-2024, the 5 years before 2025.  
 

But 2020 was an abbreviated season with no real effort.  It doesn’t reveal much…

I agree with Old Red that 2021 was the outlier. Aside from that year we were mediocre or worse from 2020 to 2024. That should not happen with the regularity it did happen with. An occasional off year, maybe two...thats it. We should compete for a playoff spot nearly every year if management is doing their job.

[FredLynn]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Multiple things can be true, I dont think its crazy to be disappointed in the way the Red Sox have operated last 5 or so years, and its well documented that they were only willing to spend money, if they could shed money.

I dont think its crazy to point to the fact that Crochet was traded for, and extended with 2 years of team control which lowered the AAV on the extension. Essentially giving up prospects/value to get an ace at an affordable AAV vs just getting an ace.  Id love to have Kyle Teel right now. However, this overlooks that to "spend" the right guys have to be there.  And Crochet is/was much better than anyone they could have signed in free agency.

Im not sure how much the 2 years remaining on the deal, meaning they could extend at a non top rate AAV factored into getting Crochet vs purely being enamored with his talent.

But despite what the red sox say (the opposite) they have been cautious with the payroll these last 5 years, and its led to some frustrating roster decisions and thats a lot why we've been below average (and thats being generous) since 2018.  One ALCS appearance doesnt change that.

I dont think its as much a failure to spend money as it is a complacency with just rolling over the same mediocre players year after year, but thats gotten better since Breslow. Shape up or get shipped out.  Dudes are gonna get squeezed on an improving ballclub and Yoshida and Casas are next.

Casas started off slow last year then got injured. But his career OPS is .800. I haven't given up on him just yet.

[drewski6]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Casas started off slow last year then got injured. But his career OPS is .800. I haven't given up on him just yet.

Well, you should because an .800 OPS for the slowest donkey in the league who doesnt have a position is a chump.  Plus he doesnt swing enough.

[mvp 78]

Look, anything that doesn't agree with my argument is just an outlier ok!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Look, anything that doesn't agree with my argument is just an outlier ok!!!

But the intruther in this decade is that the real disappointments are not what happened in the offseason, but at the trade deadlines.

And not just last year... some of those Red Sox teams that ended up with bad records could've been in the hunt with the kind of quality fortifications that other clubs' GMs procured.

As for Fred's worry, a segment on MLB Channel just now with Harold, Lauren and Jen McCaffrey sure sounded like Gray was the one starter Brez wanted, and now all the focus will be on offense...

[notin]

29 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I agree with Old Red that 2021 was the outlier. Aside from that year we were mediocre or worse from 2020 to 2024. That should not happen with the regularity it did happen with. An occasional off year, maybe two...thats it. We should compete for a playoff spot nearly every year if management is doing their job.

The reality is 2020 was the outlier.  2021 was largely still the 2018-19 team.

The Sox had a good run from 2016 to 2021, and then a bad 3 year stretch of mediocrity…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But the intruther in this decade is that the real disappointments are not what happened in the offseason, but at the trade deadlines.

And not just last year... some of those Red Sox teams that ended up with bad records could've been in the hunt with the kind of quality fortifications that other clubs' GMs procured.

As for Fred's worry, a segment on MLB Channel just now with Harold, Lauren and Jen McCaffrey sure sounded like Gray was the one starter Brez wanted, and now all the focus will be on offense...

Anyone saying Breslow is done or isn’t done at this point in the off-season is looking for ratings or hits. I have no idea what Breslow’s offseason plan is, but I do know he’s going to be flexible based on what other teams do, what offers they make, what players they make available, and what trade offers he receives, if any. Not to mention, what happens if his own players get hurt.

He might focus on offense for a while.  But that does mean he’s all done with pitching and will not be reactive

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Anyone saying Breslow is done or isn’t done at this point in the off-season is looking for ratings or hits. I have no idea what Breslow’s offseason plan is, but I do know he’s going to be flexible based on what other teams do, what offers they make, what players they make available, and what trade offers he receives, if any. Not to mention, what happens if his own players get hurt.

He might focus on offense for a while.  But that does mean he’s all done with pitching and will not be reactive

Craig just might have to be really flexible to pickpocket Henry's wallet when he's bending forward to light a cigar.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Anyone saying Breslow is done or isn’t done at this point in the off-season is looking for ratings or hits. I have no idea what Breslow’s offseason plan is, but I do know he’s going to be flexible based on what other teams do, what offers they make, what players they make available, and what trade offers he receives, if any. Not to mention, what happens if his own players get hurt.

He might focus on offense for a while.  But that does mean he’s all done with pitching and will not be reactive

Well , SOMEBODY did say that Breslow is not flexible , but that somebody was sacked for it.

But , I mean, going after the guy who made the charge doesnt exactly reek of innoncence.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Craig just might have to be really flexible to pickpocket Henry's wallet when he's bending forward to light a cigar.

Hope hes been putting in the time at the yoga studio, because not being a f*ing stiff isnt exactly the guys MO

[Old Red]

How will Sonny handle pitching in Boston? Pitching in Fenway with a not so great D behind him? Pitching in the AL east specifically against the Yankees?

[Bellhorn04]

Can't complain about this move, especially since I complained about not signing him before 2024.

Go Craig.  I'm with ya all the way...until I'm not. 

 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Back to back seasons with 200+ k's and under 40 bb's. If all you are looking at is ERA, you aren't looking at the whole story. Better FIP and WHIP than Bello last year. 

While I agree, fully, are you not worried about a 100 ERA- in a large sample size like 2024-2025?

ERA- factors in a few things that ERA does not.

I know you value things like FIP and K-BB types of numbers, and I respect that. You also know a lot more about barrell rates and other numbers that go right over my head. I think Gray is a better pitcher than his 100 ERA- indicates, but I also think he's not as good as some of the other numbers show him to be.

IMO, he has been a decent #2 SP'er the past 2 seasons, and we needed a #2. I had hoped we did better, but if we fill the two big bat needs well enough, I'm fine with this move.

I do worry about how well he does at age 36.

I do not worry so much about the while "under the spotlight wilting" talk.

I hope he gives us 180+ IP and an ERA- better than 100. I'd like better than 90.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Your post is ridiculous. I don't care what his PROJECTIONS are. I care what he has done. Last year his ERA was 4.28, BELOW average. We don't need another BELOW AVERAGE pitcher on the staff, unless we are going to use him as a #4-5 SP of which there are already several candidates on staff. He's also getting long in the tooth. Getting Sonny Gray does nothing to address our major needs.

Of course he addresses one of our major needs.  We had two locked-in SPs on the team.  We have some decent pitching prospects, but we had ONLY TWO real pitchers.  Crochet was CY-level, and Bello was kind of meh+.  So our #3, #4, and #5 SPs were going to be an injured Sandoval, Early with 4 career starts, and Tolle with 3 (weak) career starts.  That's not a serious approach.

Seriously, am I missing someone?  Is there an SP on our team that I am missing?

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Thats what he will be-a #4-5 SP. Still need a solid #2. And a power hitting IF.

Over the past three seasons, FG has him as the 5th (6th) highest WAR.  While anything can happen, if you think he is a 4/5, I question your knowledge of pitching.

[notin]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Of course he addresses one of our major needs.  We had two locked-in SPs on the team.  We have some decent pitching prospects, but we had ONLY TWO real pitchers.  Crochet was CY-level, and Bello was kind of meh+.  So our #3, #4, and #5 SPs were going to be an injured Sandoval, Early with 4 career starts, and Tolle with 3 (weak) career starts.  That's not a serious approach.

Seriously, am I missing someone?  Is there an SP on our team that I am missing?

Crawford and Dobbins…

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

Crawford and Dobbins…

Yup. Crawford led the team in GS (33) and IP (184) in 2024. His ERA slipped to 4.36, but that was not far from Gray's 2025 ERA.

Crawford '23-'24

56 GS, 313 IP and 4.23 ERA (102 ERA+)

Gray '24-'25

60 GS, 347 IP and 4.07 ERA (101 ERA+)

Dobbins is a question mark but looked good in his 11 GS in '25.

61 IP and 4.13 ERA (100 ERA+)

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Over the past three seasons, FG has him as the 5th (6th) highest WAR.  While anything can happen, if you think he is a 4/5, I question your knowledge of pitching.

Of course you do. But I am right. How did he do last year? A: below average. Like  a #4 SP. I don't care what he did three years ago. Obviously he regressed as happens to older pitchers sometimes. He's not a#2. We need a #2 and he ain't it.

And BTW, the Jays just signed a real #2. Cease is off the boards. Just signed with Toronto. I have a sneaking suspicion that our idiot management team thinks Gray is just fine behind Crochet. He isn't. Gray is fine behind Crochet and ?? and Bello. 

Here we go again. Dumpster diving.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Of course he addresses one of our major needs.  We had two locked-in SPs on the team.  We have some decent pitching prospects, but we had ONLY TWO real pitchers.  Crochet was CY-level, and Bello was kind of meh+.  So our #3, #4, and #5 SPs were going to be an injured Sandoval, Early with 4 career starts, and Tolle with 3 (weak) career starts.  That's not a serious approach.

Seriously, am I missing someone?  Is there an SP on our team that I am missing?

Yes. As usual you are missing something. It is this: we have a bunch of #3-5 SPs. Where's our #2? I never said I objected to signing Gray. I would object if management tries to pass him off as a capable #2.

[FredLynn]

7 hours ago, notin said:

The reality is 2020 was the outlier.  2021 was largely still the 2018-19 team.

The Sox had a good run from 2016 to 2021, and then a bad 3 year stretch of mediocrity…

Our overall record for those five years was roughly .500 level. 

Not good enough. Not even close.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/25/2025 at 9:33 AM, sk7326 said:

Clarke is an interesting prospect - but we have a good number of them.  It's a fair deal for a durable #2/#3 sort.

i liked Gray a few years back but at this stage of his career I think the Sox will be disappointed if they think he is a #2 SP. 

[Randy Red Sox]

14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Of course you do. But I am right. How did he do last year? A: below average. Like  a #4 SP. I don't care what he did three years ago. Obviously he regressed as happens to older pitchers sometimes. He's not a#2. We need a #2 and he ain't it.

And BTW, the Jays just signed a real #2. Cease is off the boards. Just signed with Toronto. I have a sneaking suspicion that our idiot management team thinks Gray is just fine behind Crochet. He isn't. Gray is fine behind Crochet and ?? and Bello. 

Here we go again. Dumpster diving.

Gray is much more than dumpster diving

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Of course you do. But I am right. How did he do last year? A: below average. Like  a #4 SP. I don't care what he did three years ago. Obviously he regressed as happens to older pitchers sometimes. He's not a#2. We need a #2 and he ain't it.

If you only look at ERA, and that's not a bad choice, yes, he's not a 2 or maybe even a 3.

If you look at FIP, xFIP, K%, BB% and some other numbers, he looks like a #1 or 2.

I think 4/5 is harsh. 2/3 is about right. Maybe low side of 2, if kinda pusing it, but high side of 3 is not.

IP count for value, too.

Even in 2025, he was 20th in fWAR out of every SP'er in MLB, That rates as a #1.

[Duran Is The Man]

looks like the Blue Jays went all-in on Cease.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

looks like the Blue Jays went all-in on Cease.

7 yrs is a long time especially for a pitcher.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

looks like the Blue Jays went all-in on Cease.

$26M x 7! WOW!

Wonder if they can afford Bichette, now.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

7 yrs is a long time especially for a pitcher.

Damn long for a guy coming off an "off year."

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

$26M x 7! WOW!

Wonder if they can afford Bichette, now.

Reportedly they’re looking into Ketel Marte. Slide defensive whiz Andres Gimenez back to short where he belongs and they’re good…

[Duran Is The Man]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

$26M x 7! WOW!

Wonder if they can afford Bichette, now.

kinda what i was thinking. maybe they feel like Clement or Jiminez can replace him.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Reportedly they’re looking into Ketel Marte. Slide defensive whiz Andres Gimenez back to short where he belongs and they’re good…

That would make our winter task harder