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Posted

Sonny Gray might not be the ideal choice to start Game 2 of a postseason series but the veteren right-hander should help a team secure a playoff berth.

Steamer projects Gray ninth among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of many pitchers who might be a better choice as a Game 2 starter:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764301458&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Gray's regular-season bulk has value.

Posted
6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't have a problem with the rentals. Signing guys to rehab hasn't worked out so far (Paxton, Fulmer, Hendriks, Sandoval). 

Fixed it.

Posted
2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He'll be turning 27 and we've seen a lot of mid rotation stuff from him over the past 3.5 years. I don't think he ever becomes anything more than a #3. If they move him, he's not a guy that all of a sudden is in the CY conversation. 

23-25 (200+ innings)

58th fWAR

127th k/9

112th bb/9

147th hr/9

84th ERA

83rd xFIP

Good, but not great pitcher. If you're using him to get a #2 starter or a true middle of the order bat, you should do it. 

Good numbers.

I like using 3 year sample sizes, however, with pitchers who have only been in MLB for 3 years, it can be a bit deceptive. As with 36 year old pitchers like Gray, maybe the past 1-2 year sample size is a bit more telling.

With Bello, 2023 was better than 2024, so the two year sample won't vary much from the 3 year one. Same with Gray.

On the 3 year sample size, you listed Bello as 84th in ERA, but he was also 45th in ERA- at 93, which is better than Kirby, Bassitt, Lodolo, Gore and others.

2025 only: (120 SP'ers with 100+ IP)

ERA-

31. Bello 78

33. Gio 80

36. Ryan 81

46. Framber 90

50. Singer 91

53. Castillo 93

77. Gray 104

FIP

21. Gray 3.39

29. Cease 3.56

35. Ryan 3.69

38. Gore 3.74

40. Lodolo 3.78

62. Bello 4.12

64. Gio 4.17

I'd like Bello as our #4.

Gray would be fine as our #3.

That still leave the #2 slot open, but I doubt Brez & Co see it this way.

Posted
54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

FIP is based 100% on numbers. Numbers that do not involved the defense behind a pitcher.

Does FIP account for which park HRs are surrendered in? It’s clear that some parks are more HR friendly than other. And the formula uses a “constant” that changes from year to year. A constant should always be the same-like the speed of light. Here’s the definition of “constant”:

a situation or state of affairs that does not change.”

I prefer using just ERA or ERA+. Usually the simplest solution is best. Earned runs per nine innings or earned runs per 9 with a fudge factor for the kind of park a pitcher starts around half his games in. 
The bottom line is that Gray will be a good addition to the pitching staff, most likely, but he is clearly not the #2 SP we need. I think we are in agreement here. He’s probably an #3 at best. We both doubt they’ll get a better pitcher to slot in between Crochet and Gray..

 

And given the way this franchise has operated in the past I don’t think we will get our #2. You wrote yourself that you were afraid this is the final SP roster. I agree. I also doubt we will get the power bat at a corner IF position we need. Henry won’t pay up.

Posted
2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He'll be turning 27 and we've seen a lot of mid rotation stuff from him over the past 3.5 years. I don't think he ever becomes anything more than a #3. If they move him, he's not a guy that all of a sudden is in the CY conversation. 

23-25 (200+ innings)

58th fWAR

127th k/9

112th bb/9

147th hr/9

84th ERA

83rd xFIP

Good, but not great pitcher. If you're using him to get a #2 starter or a true middle of the order bat, you should do it. 

maybe for a TRUE #2 but one a lot younger than 36 with some term control---NOT ANOTHER 1 YEAR RENTAL !!

Posted
14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Does FIP account for which park HRs are surrendered in? It’s clear that some parks are more HR friendly than other. And the formula uses a “constant” that changes from year to year. A constant should always be the same-like the speed of light. Here’s the definition of “constant”:

a situation or state of affairs that does not change.”

I prefer using just ERA or ERA+. Usually the simplest solution is best. Earned runs per nine innings or earned runs per 9 with a fudge factor for the kind of park a pitcher starts around half his games in. 
The bottom line is that Gray will be a good addition to the pitching staff, most likely, but he is clearly not the #2 SP we need. I think we are in agreement here. He’s probably an #3 at best. We both doubt they’ll get a better pitcher to slot in between Crochet and Gray..

 

And given the way this franchise has operated in the past I don’t think we will get our #2. You wrote yourself that you were afraid this is the final SP roster. I agree. I also doubt we will get the power bat at a corner IF position we need. Henry won’t pay up.

ERA does not account for park or defense, nor strength of opposing offenses.

I like ERA- and ERA+, too.

I was just responding to your point about the "other stats" not being based on actual numbers, FIP does.

I like FIP, but not as much as some on this site. I like ERA- and ERA+ more than FIP, but not way more.

If Gray is a #4 in ERA-/ERA+ and a #1 in FIP, I'd be fine calling him a very low 2 or higher 3.

If Bello is a 1/2 in ERA-/ERA+ and a 2/3 in FIP, should we can him a solid #2? I wouldn't, and that shows the limitation of stats. To me, Gray and Bello have been 2's at times, 3's at times and 4's at times in the past 2 years. Bello should be getting better while Gray should be getting worse. If they end up our 3-4, I'm fine.

I don't like either as our #2, so the bottom line- we agree. We just got there in different ways.

I doubt we get a #2, so we better max out on our 2 big bat additions.

Posted
5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He'll be turning 27 and we've seen a lot of mid rotation stuff from him over the past 3.5 years. I don't think he ever becomes anything more than a #3. If they move him, he's not a guy that all of a sudden is in the CY conversation. 

FWIW for as long as they’re living, Brayan Bello will be 35 days older than Garrett Crochet.

Posted
21 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Show me where I said Cease is better than Gray. Good luck!

I said Cease signed with the Jays. I want someone better than both of them. 

And BTW, the Jays just signed a real #2. Cease is off the boards.

You said that Cease was a "real #2".  TBH, I like Cease a little, but that was too much money for someone that inconsistent.  But that's not the important part.  If you don't like Cease as your #2, and Cease is the best available FA pitcher, what are you looking for?

Posted
6 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I prefer using just ERA or ERA+. Usually the simplest solution is best.

FIP is a better indicator of how well someone pitched.  ERA is very inconsistent, and imo, the lowest level stat, except maybe for W/L.  Start with K/W, GB/FB and HRs.  Massage the HRs if there was an anomaly for a high or low HR/FB.  That will tell you how good a pitcher is without spending a couple of hours on it.

If you are going to go with a stat like ERA, massage that number for BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%.

Posted
5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we get a #2, so we better max out on our 2 big bat additions.

While I agree that I'd like a #2, and quite honestly, with our farm, I'd like to see if someone is looking to move a #1.  That said, the RS could legitimately want to give a rotation spot to Early and Tolle.  If the FO assessment is that both of these guys have #2 potential, and the only to get to #2 status is to start them, I can't argue against that.  The scouts love Tolle, and like Early a lot.  They project as a #2 and a #3.

I'd shell out a big package for Chandler or Burns, but there is also a good argument in favor of developing our own prospects.

Posted
15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

FIP is a better indicator of how well someone pitched.  ERA is very inconsistent, and imo, the lowest level stat, except maybe for W/L.  Start with K/W, GB/FB and HRs.  Massage the HRs if there was an anomaly for a high or low HR/FB.  That will tell you how good a pitcher is without spending a couple of hours on it.

If you are going to go with a stat like ERA, massage that number for BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%.

I like ERA+/ERA- more than FIP. There are just too many really good pitchers who never had great FIPs. That being said, FIP has real value, and not many pitchers have great FIP numbers and fail or are mediocre.

Here are 3 lists of the top 10 SP'ers over the past 10 years: which do you think is most accurate?

600+ IP

A. Scherzer, deGrom, Wheeler, Nola, Cole, Sale, Verlander, Gausman, Kershaw, Gray

B. deGrom, Sale, Webb, Skubal, Bieber, Kershaw, Scherzer, Wheeler, Burnes, Fried

C. deGrom, Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Fried, Burnes, Verlander, Woodruff, Skubal, Bieber

It's kinda hard to pick. I'd go A-C-B.

That's fWAR-ERA--FIP

Posted

2025 Lists (120+ IP)

A> Skenes, Skubal, C Sanchez, Webb, Sale, Eovaldi, Crochet, Luzardo, Yamamoto, Wheller

B> Eovaldi, Skenes, Skubal, C Sanchez, Yamo, Brown, Crochet, Sale, Wheller, Peralta

C> Skubal, Skenes, C Sanchez, Crochet, Webb, Luzardo, Yamo, Fried, Brown, Gausman

(A= FIP, B=ERA-, C= fWAR)

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's fWAR-ERA--FIP

My opinion is that those three numbers should be identical over ten years.  The reason why I prefer FIP over ERA is that it is more consistent and filters out the noise.  But over ten years, the noise should be de minimis.

Just for fun, with no real research, DeGrom's ERA/FIP is 2.57/2.71.  Scherzer is 3.22/3.23.  Wheeler is 3.28/3.29.

But some fans will never accept calculations that they don't understand.  And that's fine.  But it is also less accurate.

Posted
18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

While I agree that I'd like a #2, and quite honestly, with our farm, I'd like to see if someone is looking to move a #1.  That said, the RS could legitimately want to give a rotation spot to Early and Tolle.  If the FO assessment is that both of these guys have #2 potential, and the only to get to #2 status is to start them, I can't argue against that.  The scouts love Tolle, and like Early a lot.  They project as a #2 and a #3.

I'd shell out a big package for Chandler or Burns, but there is also a good argument in favor of developing our own prospects.

I had hoped for better than Gray, but honestly, he seems like a much better bet than Buehler was, than Sandoval was, than Paxton & Kluber were, than Wacha & Hill were, than Kluber & Richards were and certainly better than Martin Perez was.

If we check the 2 big bat boxes at 2 of these positions, I'd be fine with this winter:

2B, 3B, 1B or maybe DH

I'd count Bregman, Bichette or Polanco as one, but not if they are the best bat we add.

IMO, we need one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber. A second bat from the above group would be great, but more likely the best we can hope for might be KMarte or Alonso plus Realmuto.

Posted
3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My opinion is that those three numbers should be identical over ten years.  The reason why I prefer FIP over ERA is that it is more consistent and filters out the noise.  But over ten years, the noise should be de minimis.

Just for fun, with no real research, DeGrom's ERA/FIP is 2.57/2.71.  Scherzer is 3.22/3.23.  Wheeler is 3.28/3.29.

But some fans will never accept calculations that they don't understand.  And that's fine.  But it is also less accurate.

FIP and xFIP have grown on me in recent years, and I like your point about GB/FO ratios, but there are too many exceptions that keep me skeptical.

Here are some of the largest differentials between ERA and FIP:

Better FIP

.52 Luzardo

.41 Syndergaard

.38 Kirby

.35 Nola

.29 Gray

.28 Webb

.26 Sale

_______________

Better ERA

.49 Kershaw

.45 Urias

.41 Verlander

.38 Fried

.36 Buehler

.33 Bassitt

.26 deGrom

______________

Some interesting names on each list.

How about the highest FIPs of the ERA- leaders?

ERA- Rank v FIP Rank

7. Verlander 3.45 (18th in FIP)

13. Urias 3.66 (31st in FIP)

16. Bauer 3.69 (33rd)

23. Hamels 4.28 (95th)

Posted
2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

And BTW, the Jays just signed a real #2. Cease is off the boards.

You said that Cease was a "real #2".  TBH, I like Cease a little, but that was too much money for someone that inconsistent.  But that's not the important part.  If you don't like Cease as your #2, and Cease is the best available FA pitcher, what are you looking for?

Cease had a good reputation but I didn’t check his stats to confirm it. Turns out he’s not as good as I thought. That said, nothing is changed about Gray. He’s still not the answer for our #2 spot to complement Crochet. It’s highly likely that Breslow will make some sort of excuse for why he again failed to get a better pitcher. Valdez or Suarez would fit the bill. Both are better than Gray and are available I believe. Other pitchers are available by trade. The track record for this franchise is to consistently try to do it on the cheap. Wanna make a small wager that we won’t sign a top FA (or trade for one) power hitter like Schwarber or Alonso?

Posted
8 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Cease had a good reputation but I didn’t check his stats to confirm it. Turns out he’s not as good as I thought. That said, nothing is changed about Gray. He’s still not the answer for our #2 spot to complement Crochet. It’s highly likely that Breslow will make some sort of excuse for why he again failed to get a better pitcher. Valdez or Suarez would fit the bill. Both are better than Gray and are available I believe. Other pitchers are available by trade. The track record for this franchise is to consistently try to do it on the cheap. Wanna make a small wager that we won’t sign a top FA (or trade for one) power hitter like Schwarber or Alonso?

For two to three seasons it has not been "CHEAP," it's been "SHORT."

$39M/2 Gio, $21M/1 for Buehler than $21M/1 for Gray is a lot. True, it's even not as much AAV as Cease, but it's not chump change, either. It's over double the AAV on Richards, Kluber, Wacha+Hill and Sandoval. I'm not making excuses. I agree with you that Gray is not a #2, and the talk was more about a high 2 or co-ace with Crochet, so it makes it even worse.

On Valdez, he just turned 32 and has had some "issues" in HOU. Suarez is 30 and is a solid #2, in my book.

2025 fWAR: 4.0 Valdez & Suarez, 3.6 Gray, 3.4 Cease (3.1 Ryan & 2.8 Lodolo are some guys mentioned as #2 additions)

FIP: 3.21 Suarez, 3.37 Valdez, 3.39 Gray, 3.56 Cease, 3.74 Ryan & Gore (all top 30 in MLB) Lodolo at #35 at 3.81

ERA-: 75 Suarez & Lodolo, (78 Bello & 80 Gio) 83 Ryan (all top 30) then...90 Valdez (37th) 99 Gore (58th) 104 Gray (69th) 112 Cease (81st)

3 Year numbers:

fWAR 12.8 Gray (5th) 12.1 Valdez (8) 11.7 Cease (9) 9.6 Suarez (15) 8.6 Ryan (27) 7.3 Gore (40) Pretty much all were 1's or 2's.

FIP: #10 Gray, 16 Valdez, 20 Cease, 21 Suarez, 35 Ryan, 48 Gore, 54 Lodolo

ERA- 19th Valdez, 23 Suarez, 32 Gray, 39 Ryan, 51 Lodolo, 58 Gore,102 Cease.

I really don't want Valdez, although I think he will be better than Gray. Suarez would be great but is out of JH's range from day one.

To me, we have a longshot chance at landing Lodolo, Alcantara, Gore or Ryan, but two big bats are my two top priorities, now that we have Gray at $21M.

Posted
17 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Does FIP account for which park HRs are surrendered in?

It does not.  xFIP normalizes the HR rate to neutralize ballpark effects…

Posted
9 minutes ago, notin said:

It does not.  xFIP normalizes the HR rate to neutralize ballpark effects…

And, xFIP shows Gray was a top 30 SP'er in 2025. (Cease, too.)

100+ IP in '25

1. Crochet 2.64

12. Gray 3.07

18. Valdez 3.34

20. Cease 3.56

21. Suarez 3.61

26. Bubic 3.63

28. Lodolo 3.66

30. Ryan 3.70

_______________

#2's????

34. Gore 3.78

36. M Kelly 3.81

58. Gallen 4.12

_________________

#3's????

62. M Keller & Bibee 4.17

65. Alcantara 4.19

73. Singer 4.25

86. Bello 4.39

98. Giolito 4.59

(127 pitchers in sample size.)

Posted
11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I had hoped for better than Gray, but honestly, he seems like a much better bet than Buehler was, than Sandoval was, than Paxton & Kluber were, than Wacha & Hill were, than Kluber & Richards were and certainly better than Martin Perez was.

If we check the 2 big bat boxes at 2 of these positions, I'd be fine with this winter:

2B, 3B, 1B or maybe DH

I'd count Bregman, Bichette or Polanco as one, but not if they are the best bat we add.

IMO, we need one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber. A second bat from the above group would be great, but more likely the best we can hope for might be KMarte or Alonso plus Realmuto.

thanks for posting the list of BBB  SP they Sox whiffed on although I kinda wished they had kept Wacha. I agree that Gray is a better bet although his flop in NY has me a bit concerned if he can survive in the AL East.

Posted
12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

While I agree that I'd like a #2, and quite honestly, with our farm, I'd like to see if someone is looking to move a #1.  That said, the RS could legitimately want to give a rotation spot to Early and Tolle.  If the FO assessment is that both of these guys have #2 potential, and the only to get to #2 status is to start them, I can't argue against that.  The scouts love Tolle, and like Early a lot.  They project as a #2 and a #3.

I'd shell out a big package for Chandler or Burns, but there is also a good argument in favor of developing our own prospects.

I liked what I saw from Early but Tolle better spend the offseason developing a quality off speed pitch or he is nothing more than a reliever.

Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

For two to three seasons it has not been "CHEAP," it's been "SHORT."

$39M/2 Gio, $21M/1 for Buehler than $21M/1 for Gray is a lot. True, it's even not as much AAV as Cease, but it's not chump change, either. It's over double the AAV on Richards, Kluber, Wacha+Hill and Sandoval. I'm not making excuses. I agree with you that Gray is not a #2, and the talk was more about a high 2 or co-ace with Crochet, so it makes it even worse.

On Valdez, he just turned 32 and has had some "issues" in HOU. Suarez is 30 and is a solid #2, in my book.

2025 fWAR: 4.0 Valdez & Suarez, 3.6 Gray, 3.4 Cease (3.1 Ryan & 2.8 Lodolo are some guys mentioned as #2 additions)

FIP: 3.21 Suarez, 3.37 Valdez, 3.39 Gray, 3.56 Cease, 3.74 Ryan & Gore (all top 30 in MLB) Lodolo at #35 at 3.81

ERA-: 75 Suarez & Lodolo, (78 Bello & 80 Gio) 83 Ryan (all top 30) then...90 Valdez (37th) 99 Gore (58th) 104 Gray (69th) 112 Cease (81st)

3 Year numbers:

fWAR 12.8 Gray (5th) 12.1 Valdez (8) 11.7 Cease (9) 9.6 Suarez (15) 8.6 Ryan (27) 7.3 Gore (40) Pretty much all were 1's or 2's.

FIP: #10 Gray, 16 Valdez, 20 Cease, 21 Suarez, 35 Ryan, 48 Gore, 54 Lodolo

ERA- 19th Valdez, 23 Suarez, 32 Gray, 39 Ryan, 51 Lodolo, 58 Gore,102 Cease.

I really don't want Valdez, although I think he will be better than Gray. Suarez would be great but is out of JH's range from day one.

To me, we have a longshot chance at landing Lodolo, Alcantara, Gore or Ryan, but two big bats are my two top priorities, now that we have Gray at $21M.

Year after year Henry has opted not to spend the money and/or prospects to put his team in the best possible position to win. For several years at the TD they have equivocated, being vanilla buyers but not sellers. Seems he should make up his mind: either go for it or sell and plan for next year. Same thing is happening this offseason so far with the signing of Gray. If Gray was that good St L would not have given the Sox $20m to take him off their hands for Fitts and a prospect. He is absolutely NOT what the team needed, though he will help a bit. I think management will take the same approach with acquiring the bats they need-its how they operate. They sign a decent player and try to pass him off as a rose, all the while professing "interest" in the better players. I would be absolutely shocked if we got Schwarber, KMarte, or Alonso or the equivalent. My guess is that we will get Bregman and some player of minor usefulness. I would bet on it. Any takers?

Posted
34 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

thanks for posting the list of BBB  SP they Sox whiffed on although I kinda wished they had kept Wacha. I agree that Gray is a better bet although his flop in NY has me a bit concerned if he can survive in the AL East.

Even though it was 7-8 years ago Gray was a Big flop in his two years with the Yankees. Last year Gray got rocked in his only start against the Yankees, and could face them 3-4 times next year. Gray could also pitch half his games at Fenway where he hasn’t fared very well in his seven games (6)starts that only consist of 26+ innings, and his career ERA pitching in Fenway is the worst  except 1 other park. Gray may be an upgrade over Gio, but then again he might not winding up being so. At this point he is nothing to get excited about for me. Time will tell.

Posted
30 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

thanks for posting the list of BBB  SP they Sox whiffed on although I kinda wished they had kept Wacha. I agree that Gray is a better bet although his flop in NY has me a bit concerned if he can survive in the AL East.

I never fully bought into the whole "wilts in the spotlight" thing. Sometimes pitchers just have a bad year.

He was coming off two injury shortended seasons in that bad 2018 season. It's notable that his worst season was with OAK- certainly no spotlight's there.

He's had only 3 seasons below 100 ERA+

2016 OAK

2018 NYY

2025 STL

His next 3 worst seasons: STL, CIN, OAK, so one of his worst 6 seasons was in NY. His 2017 season was in the middle with a 122 ERA+.

Posted
6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Year after year Henry has opted not to spend the money and/or prospects to put his team in the best possible position to win. For several years at the TD they have equivocated, being vanilla buyers but not sellers. Seems he should make up his mind: either go for it or sell and plan for next year. Same thing is happening this offseason so far with the signing of Gray. If Gray was that good St L would not have given the Sox $20m to take him off their hands for Fitts and a prospect. He is absolutely NOT what the team needed, though he will help a bit. I think management will take the same approach with acquiring the bats they need-its how they operate. They sign a decent player and try to pass him off as a rose, all the while professing "interest" in the better players. I would be absolutely shocked if we got Schwarber, KMarte, or Alonso or the equivalent. My guess is that we will get Bregman and some player of minor usefulness. I would bet on it. Any takers?

Nobody is buying the idea than a Dandelion is a Rose. It won't be tolerated.

Posted
4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody is buying the idea than a Dandelion is a Rose. It won't be tolerated.

But they (the fans) ARE tolerating it. They keep showing up at the park and buying Sox paraphernalia. Gray is the modern day dandelion. Even some here are thinking he's a rose. You and I are not buying it. We are calling it what it is: inadequate.

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

It does not.  xFIP normalizes the HR rate to neutralize ballpark effects…

Seems FIP isn't particularly useful then. Its clear that which ballpark you play in makes a big difference. For me ERA+ is better than FIP. The park matters.

Posted
16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never fully bought into the whole "wilts in the spotlight" thing. Sometimes pitchers just have a bad year.

He was coming off two injury shortended seasons in that bad 2018 season. It's notable that his worst season was with OAK- certainly no spotlight's there.

He's had only 3 seasons below 100 ERA+

2016 OAK

2018 NYY

2025 STL

His next 3 worst seasons: STL, CIN, OAK, so one of his worst 6 seasons was in NY. His 2017 season was in the middle with a 122 ERA+.

I buy the whole playing in Boston thing 100%. Some thrive playing in the Boston experience, and some do not. 

Posted

I’m not sold on the narrative that Gray couldn’t pitch in NY, but I don’t think we should ignore it either.

i forgot where I read this, but someone was pointing out how Sonny should pitch well in Fenway, he gets hit to CF/RCF but rarely gets pulled down the line.  This should play out well with the pesky poll and monster and spacious centerfield 

This seems to be back up by Sonny Grays impressive 6.84 ERA and 1.82 WHIP at Fenway park. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

But they (the fans) ARE tolerating it. They keep showing up at the park and buying Sox paraphernalia. Gray is the modern day dandelion. Even some here are thinking he's a rose. You and I are not buying it. We are calling it what it is: inadequate.

I dont think Gray is a dandelion. I think he has the upside to be a Rose, but at age 36, I doubt it.

Some stats show he's a Rose, and with the posters talking him up, it seems they have always valued FIP, so I don't think they are stretching to find silver linings.

Maybe some will be happy with Gray replacing Gio and Bregman coming back as a push. Maybe some will be upset but not by enough to raise a storm.

I'll be pissed, but I'm always going to be a Sox fan. I've been a fan through worse than this and longer than this. I think our future looks brighter with so many really good players- many locked up for many years, as well as more young pitching prospects than I've ever seen on a Sox team, at least since the Clemens, Hurst and Ojeda years.

I've call what these guys have been doing a "sham." I think the sham ended last winter, but with the Devers dump and the loss of Bregman and Gio, they must prove it's still over, or I'll be driving the sham wagon, again.

We have a window that can be wide open for 4-5 years- maybe even more. In the past, it seems like JH has been good at realizing that and acting accordingly. I will not project he'll do that this winter, because I'm skeptical, but I'm not going all doom & gloom until the winter additions are over.

I preferred better than Gray, but IMO he's better than Wacha/Hill, Buehler, Gio, Sandoval and all the others that flamed out. My top priorities were a mega bat to replace Devers, a solid #2 SP and another good bat. We got a borderline 2/3 SP'er and have yet to address the offense.

Time will tell, but I'm watching every Sox game I can, until I die, even if we add nobody else.

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