Article: Alex Bregman Opts Out, Exactly As Red Sox Planned

[Brandon Glick]

This was always the plan.

When Alex Bregman entered free agency last offseason -- fresh off arguably the worst offensive (but best defensive) season of his career -- he was saddled with the qualifying offer. Teams bemoaned the idea of handing him the $200 million he and agent Scott Boras reportedly sought, with the incumbent Houston Astros reportedly offering him the largest total guarantee of around $156 million over a period of six years.

So, like most elite free agents who have felt the value suppression of the dreaded QO, Bregman instead went after a short-term, high-AAV (average annual value) contract that would offer him both lifelong financial security and the opportunity to rejoin the free agency fray via player options, if he so chose. That opened his market significantly wider, and it was the Red Sox who surprisingly pounced, giving him a three-year contract worth $120 million.

They handed him the third base job -- much to the dismay of disgruntled star Rafael Devers -- and the rest was history. He produced like an All-Star in the first half (152 wRC+), with only a quad injury slowing him down. Unfortunately, the two-time World Series champion never really returned to form after the Midsummer Classic, producing a league-average 101 wRC+ in the second half. Overall, the third baseman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs, anchoring the middle of the lineup while healthy but never really carrying the unit like some hoped he would post-Devers.

Now, after a playoff elimination at the hands of the rival New York Yankees, Bregman is exercising one of those player options in his contract to return to free agency. At 31 years old and, crucially, no qualifying offer attached, he should be able to find a longer-term deal that suits his interests. Plenty of teams need an above-average defensive third baseman who can hit for power and has championship credentials—including the Red Sox.

And yet, this was always the plan.

Even with deferrals lowering his AAV to "just" $31.7 million, he was the highest paid player on the team following the Devers trade. He's older than the current core, most of whom the front office has taken measures to keep in Boston for a while by way of contract extensions. The Red Sox are certainly ready to compete right now, so the timelines aren't an issue, but the long-term fit was always clunky.

Indeed, even with Devers out of the picture and Triston Casas' future in doubt, the team has so many infielders to sort through over the next year and change. Trevor Story is locked in at shortstop after his 20-20 season in 2025 (assuming he doesn't opt out of his deal). Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell will probably earn multiple chances to hold down starting gigs, though the former needs to prove his health and the latter needs to prove that he can hit (and field) in the majors. Then there's lefty-masher Romy Gonzalez, Alex Cora disciple David Hamilton, jack-of-all-trades Nick Sogard, and free-agent-to-be Nathaniel Lowe. Plus, top prospects Franklin Arias and Mikey Romero are going to be knocking on the MLB door sooner or later. There's just a lot of depth in the organization on the infield dirt, and Bregman simply didn't fit the long-term outlook of the franchise.

To be sure, this was a mutually beneficial transaction. Bregman brought his baseball acumen and renowned hitting abilities to Boston, and in exchange, he received $40 million and a one-way ticket right back to free agency. There's no ill will to wish upon him here—this was always the plan.

None of this is to say that the Red Sox and Bregman can't link back up for a new deal. Fears of a 2027 lockout could push him right back into their arms... but that fear is exactly why Bregman is opting out in the first place. The finances of the sport may irrevocably change in 14+ months time; this could be the third baseman's last chance to secure a monster contract under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Likewise, the Red Sox have taken various precautions under Craig Breslow to prepare for a possible salary cap (unlikely), or harsher penalties for exceeding the luxury tax (very likely). The trade of Devers was one such example—their various extensions for young players like Roman Anthony, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, Garrett Crochet, and others are perhaps the most prominent. The team is committed to building around and developing the players in house, which may become skills that are far more important in the next era of Major League Baseball.

All that is to say: Don't expect Bregman to return to Boston this offseason. Other teams have larger needs on the infield, some really need right-handed power in their lineup, and a select few have $35 million just waiting to be assigned on the 2026 payroll. Remember, the Red Sox got their first playoff appearance since 2021 with Bregman in town. It was money well spent. Now, it's simply time to move on, much like both parties expected when they agreed to his contract back in February.

In other words, this was always the plan.

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[Bellhorn04]

Hopefully they also have a plan for his replacement.

[Larry Cook]

 Not sure we got enough value for our 32mm!!   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Other teams have larger needs on the infield, some really need right-handed power in their lineup, and a select few have $35 million just waiting to be assigned on the 2026 payroll."

This describes the Red Sox exactly -- even with Bregman in the line-up.

But which team has larger needs on the infield? In Boston -- where they're all about winning championships according to the president -- there are only gigantic holes at 1B, 2B and now 3B... 

[Hitch]

I thought the same thing when I read that part. We very much are one of those teams.

And while I agree Bregman always planned to opt out, the injury lay off and then fall off of form was not planned for. He likely will, but I'm far from sure on it. In fact I've been leaning that he'd stay for a while now.

[urban cowboy]

Accept this early christmas present. An over-priced player on the decline blocking younger players[ducking]. Mayer at third. I thought campbell was intended to be 2nd or 3rd. I can't imagine how you give someone an 8 year contract without a position ... surely they think he can play the infield, right? visual evidence at second notwithstanding?

[Old Red]

If Bregman opts out just say thanks, but NO thanks. Bregman has 2 yrs, and $80M on the table no matter how it’s constructed,and doesn’t deserve anymore than that, or for a longer time IMO. Some say he tailed off the last part of the season, but after his hot start, which was done batting behind Raffy he ended up BA wise at 273, which is his career average, and he hadn’t seen that since 2019. Offering him more than $80M, and for longer than 2 more years is not a good deal to me for the Red Sox looking at his whole body of work, and not just his hot start.

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

 Not sure we got enough value for our 32mm!!   

FanGraphs says 28.2 million.  Pretty close.  There have been many worse deals.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FanGraphs says 28.2 million.  Pretty close.  There have been many worse deals.

Sox sure have gone through some free agent third basemen. Just this century, they've recruited Mueller, Lowell, Beltre, and Nunez (played all over, but made the famous play that finished the Yanks in '18).

And then was the third basement, Pablo Sandoval. At least Bregman didn't bust a good belt buckle bending over when he got hurt.

[Hondo17]

How much money do these guys really need?

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hopefully they also have a plan for his replacement.

I'd be okay with Mayer.  You have to play the kids at some point.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be okay with Mayer.  You have to play the kids at some point.

Mayer if healthy should be the SS no matter the coming, and going of anyone else IMO.

[drewski6]

Mayer in AAA is fantastic depth, but we may have too many holes and not enough resources to allow for this.  But if Mayer is your starting 3b, and story is your ss , you are starting with 2 guys with an injury history and who knows who plays 2b.  You will be seeing a lot of noodlebats, once the injuries start.

I find it likley that Bregman and his agent understand the market better than we do.  Could be wrong, but I suspect Bregman will get longer term at a similar AAV, so if you think this is a blessing in disguise, I have to think we'll get less for same money :/

[FredLynn]

Good riddance. Too many injuries; too inconsistent offensively when we need more punch in the lineup; and too old for a long term contract. Bye bye Breg........

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Mayer in AAA is fantastic depth, but we may have too many holes and not enough resources to allow for this.  But if Mayer is your starting 3b, and story is your ss , you are starting with 2 guys with an injury history and who knows who plays 2b.  You will be seeing a lot of noodlebats, once the injuries start.

I find it likley that Bregman and his agent understand the market better than we do.  Could be wrong, but I suspect Bregman will get longer term at a similar AAV, so if you think this is a blessing in disguise, I have to think we'll get less for same money :/

He'll get offered last year's Tigers contract most likely, so he ends up making out in the end. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He'll get offered last year's Tigers contract most likely, so he ends up making out in the end. 

From the Tigers, or the Red Sox?🤔

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He'll get offered last year's Tigers contract most likely, so he ends up making out in the end. 

Tigers now find they only have one year of Skubal left.  Are they still as willing to go heavy at 3b with Skubal still unresolved?

Houston filled the void he left.  What is Bregman’s market? Whichever of the Dodgers or Yankees that misses out on Tucker?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

From the Tigers, or the Red Sox?🤔

If the Sox offer him 6/170, he'll be player-manager by year 4. 

[notin]

13 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hopefully they also have a plan for his replacement.

Most likely either Mayer or Bregman returning…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Tigers now find they only have one year of Skubal left.  Are they still as willing to go heavy at 3b with Skubal still unresolved?

Houston filled the void he left.  What is Bregman’s market? Whichever of the Dodgers or Yankees that misses out on Tucker?

Tigers only had 2 for Skubal last offseason. What has really changed? 

Muncy is leaving LAD?

Suarez is leaving SEA?

DET 1.1 fWAR at 3B last year

PHI 0.8 fWAR at 3B last year (deal Bohm in last arb year?)

STL 0.8 fWAR at 3B last year (deal Arenado?)

Would someone sign him as a 2b? 

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Tigers only had 2 for Skubal last offseason. What has really changed? 

Muncy is leaving LAD?

Suarez is leaving SEA?

DET 1.1 fWAR at 3B last year

PHI 0.8 fWAR at 3B last year (deal Bohm in last arb year?)

STL 0.8 fWAR at 3B last year (deal Arenado?)

Would someone sign him as a 2b? 

Of course.

[drewski6]

We signed him to be a second baseman last year.

[drewski6]

Breg had 80m left, discounted to like 68 when accounting for present value of deferred money.

He'll get 175-200m.  Its just gamesmanship regarding the number of years.  Realize that 150/6 is better for the club than 150/5, even if he doesnt play that sixth year and has to be carried because it spreads out the lux tax hit.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Mayer if healthy should be the SS no matter the coming, and going of anyone else IMO.

I agree. Mayer SS, Story 2B and Suarez 3B/1B. (Not many other 3B options in free agency: Moncada and ______?) Maybe a trade for 3B will be necessary.

I know you don't want Story at 3B, but a trade for K marte might be possible and he'd check off the big bat needed box:

1B Suarez (back up to Story/Mayer at 3B)

2B K Marte

SS Mayer (Story back-up)

3B Story

This infield solves the issue with needing two big bats over the winter, and allows us to trade from OF depth to get a solid SP'er. We can check the three biggest boxes:

Big RHB 1B, 3B, 2B (Suarez)

Big LHB 3B, 2B, 1B (Marte is a switch hitter)

Solid SP: Greene, Lodolo, Ryan, Keller or _____ (via trade)

(My 4th prioirty and pie-in-the-sky would be to add a second SP'er like Merrill Kelly and move Tolle, Fitts and maybe Crawford to the pen, making it as solid and deep as it's ever been.)

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Breg had 80m left, discounted to like 68 when accounting for present value of deferred money.

He'll get 175-200m.  Its just gamesmanship regarding the number of years.  Realize that 150/6 is better for the club than 150/5, even if he doesnt play that sixth year and has to be carried because it spreads out the lux tax hit.

Agreed. All money is not equal. Deferred money is worth way less than upfront money, and there is a very valid reason they discount the tax line number for it.

I was thinking $110M/4 might be my limit, but no way that gets Breggie to sign. $150M/6 is adding $20M per year for two more years. That seems okay, and he'd likely play 2B those last 2-3 years, but I'm not sure even $150M/6 gets it done.

If he misses the final year, and it's essentially $150M/5, he'll be 35 for season 4 and 36 for season 5. He might still be okay at those ages and even at 37 (year 6.)

I just think we need more of a power bat, and with Bregman's decline on defense, I'm not sure the D outweighs the lack of power, anymore. We are also not sure he can maintain an .800 OPS, even next year.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. Mayer SS, Story 2B and Suarez 3B/1B. (Not many other 3B options in free agency: Moncada and ______?) Maybe a trade for 3B will be necessary.

I know you don't want Story at 3B, but a trade for K marte might be possible and he'd check off the big bat needed box:

1B Suarez (back up to Story/Mayer at 3B)

2B K Marte

SS Mayer (Story back-up)

3B Story

This infield solves the issue with needing two big bats over the winter, and allows us to trade from OF depth to get a solid SP'er. We can check the three biggest boxes:

Big RHB 1B, 3B, 2B (Suarez)

Big LHB 3B, 2B, 1B (Marte is a switch hitter)

Solid SP: Greene, Lodolo, Ryan, Keller or _____ (via trade)

(My 4th prioirty and pie-in-the-sky would be to add a second SP'er like Merrill Kelly and move Tolle, Fitts and maybe Crawford to the pen, making it as solid and deep as it's ever been.)

How are you trading for Marte and a lodolo/ryan/greene type without include mayer?   

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. All money is not equal. Deferred money is worth way less than upfront money, and there is a very valid reason they discount the tax line number for it.

I was thinking $110M/4 might be my limit, but no way that gets Breggie to sign. $150M/6 is adding $20M per year for two more years. That seems okay, and he'd likely play 2B those last 2-3 years, but I'm not sure even $150M/6 gets it done.

If he misses the final year, and it's essentially $150M/5, he'll be 35 for season 4 and 36 for season 5. He might still be okay at those ages and even at 37 (year 6.)

I just think we need more of a power bat, and with Bregman's decline on defense, I'm not sure the D outweighs the lack of power, anymore. We are also not sure he can maintain an .800 OPS, even next year.

If Bregman is too expensive for your tastes, what do you think that implies for Suarez?  Im not sure the market is that inefficient, unless Suarez gets labeled a DH.

[drewski6]

Write an article and say that Suarez is a DH and maybe you will single-handedly take 20m/yr out of his pocket? He'll prob be mad at you tho

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

How are you trading for Marte and a lodolo/ryan/greene type without include mayer?   

Right. If we trade for Marte, we'd have to sign a FA pitcher or settle for a M Keller type trade that will not need Mayer as part of it.

I got away from my theory of two major signings and one major trade. 

Two major trades would be too problematic and would destroy the depth and long term window this foundation offers.

It would have to be K Marte OR Greene/Lodolo/Ryan

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If Bregman is too expensive for your tastes, what do you think that implies for Suarez?  Im not sure the market is that inefficient, unless Suarez gets labeled a DH.

I'd sign Suarez for 1B and back-up 3Bman to oft-injured Mayer.

His power blows Bregman away. His age limits the largeness and longness of any deal he signs.

ISO since 2021

.224 Suarez

.184 Bregman

Sox Iso leaders since 2021 (600+ PAs)

.239 Devers

.211 Casas (one reason I am far from giving up on him)

.209 Abreu (why I keep him over Duran, plus his D)

.204 JD

.191 Dalbec (higher than Breggie)

.185 Duran (about the same as Breggie_

.179 Turner, .713 Bogey, .168 Story & Romy

2025: 300+ PAs

.232 Devers (TRADED)

.223 Abreu (Need to keep him)

.189 Bregman (FA)

.185 Duran (in decline)

.179 Narvaez (great from the C position!)

.178 Romy (can he go beyond a platoon role?)

.171 Anthony (should improve greatly as he reached mid 20's)

.170 Story (our HR leader)

.165 Rafaela

Others:

.214 Refsnyder in 209 PAs

.173 Mayer in 136 PAs- should improve like Anthony

You talked me into a big bat or two being our top priority, this winter. Don't try and talk me out of it! LOL!

Bregman is a good bat but not great, and he lacks the power we need.

Don't be surprised if Bregman gets more more money than Suarez (more years, maybe not more more AAV.)