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This was always the plan.
When Alex Bregman entered free agency last offseason -- fresh off arguably the worst offensive (but best defensive) season of his career -- he was saddled with the qualifying offer. Teams bemoaned the idea of handing him the $200 million he and agent Scott Boras reportedly sought, with the incumbent Houston Astros reportedly offering him the largest total guarantee of around $156 million over a period of six years.
So, like most elite free agents who have felt the value suppression of the dreaded QO, Bregman instead went after a short-term, high-AAV (average annual value) contract that would offer him both lifelong financial security and the opportunity to rejoin the free agency fray via player options, if he so chose. That opened his market significantly wider, and it was the Red Sox who surprisingly pounced, giving him a three-year contract worth $120 million.
They handed him the third base job -- much to the dismay of disgruntled star Rafael Devers -- and the rest was history. He produced like an All-Star in the first half (152 wRC+), with only a quad injury slowing him down. Unfortunately, the two-time World Series champion never really returned to form after the Midsummer Classic, producing a league-average 101 wRC+ in the second half. Overall, the third baseman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs, anchoring the middle of the lineup while healthy but never really carrying the unit like some hoped he would post-Devers.
Now, after a playoff elimination at the hands of the rival New York Yankees, Bregman is exercising one of those player options in his contract to return to free agency. At 31 years old and, crucially, no qualifying offer attached, he should be able to find a longer-term deal that suits his interests. Plenty of teams need an above-average defensive third baseman who can hit for power and has championship credentials—including the Red Sox.
And yet, this was always the plan.
Even with deferrals lowering his AAV to "just" $31.7 million, he was the highest paid player on the team following the Devers trade. He's older than the current core, most of whom the front office has taken measures to keep in Boston for a while by way of contract extensions. The Red Sox are certainly ready to compete right now, so the timelines aren't an issue, but the long-term fit was always clunky.
Indeed, even with Devers out of the picture and Triston Casas' future in doubt, the team has so many infielders to sort through over the next year and change. Trevor Story is locked in at shortstop after his 20-20 season in 2025 (assuming he doesn't opt out of his deal). Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell will probably earn multiple chances to hold down starting gigs, though the former needs to prove his health and the latter needs to prove that he can hit (and field) in the majors. Then there's lefty-masher Romy Gonzalez, Alex Cora disciple David Hamilton, jack-of-all-trades Nick Sogard, and free-agent-to-be Nathaniel Lowe. Plus, top prospects Franklin Arias and Mikey Romero are going to be knocking on the MLB door sooner or later. There's just a lot of depth in the organization on the infield dirt, and Bregman simply didn't fit the long-term outlook of the franchise.
To be sure, this was a mutually beneficial transaction. Bregman brought his baseball acumen and renowned hitting abilities to Boston, and in exchange, he received $40 million and a one-way ticket right back to free agency. There's no ill will to wish upon him here—this was always the plan.
None of this is to say that the Red Sox and Bregman can't link back up for a new deal. Fears of a 2027 lockout could push him right back into their arms... but that fear is exactly why Bregman is opting out in the first place. The finances of the sport may irrevocably change in 14+ months time; this could be the third baseman's last chance to secure a monster contract under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Likewise, the Red Sox have taken various precautions under Craig Breslow to prepare for a possible salary cap (unlikely), or harsher penalties for exceeding the luxury tax (very likely). The trade of Devers was one such example—their various extensions for young players like Roman Anthony, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, Garrett Crochet, and others are perhaps the most prominent. The team is committed to building around and developing the players in house, which may become skills that are far more important in the next era of Major League Baseball.
All that is to say: Don't expect Bregman to return to Boston this offseason. Other teams have larger needs on the infield, some really need right-handed power in their lineup, and a select few have $35 million just waiting to be assigned on the 2026 payroll. Remember, the Red Sox got their first playoff appearance since 2021 with Bregman in town. It was money well spent. Now, it's simply time to move on, much like both parties expected when they agreed to his contract back in February.
In other words, this was always the plan.
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