A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

The point isn’t that the blowout don’t effect the Sox RPG; it’s that they are not this huge factor in inflating the Sox RPG compared to other teams since every team will have them..

Blowouts:

2025 Red Sox: 26-15 (285-184) underperformed Pythagoras

2025 Blue Jays: 25-23 (289-269) overperformed Pythagoras

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Blowouts:

2025 Red Sox: 26-15 (285-184) underperformed Pythagoras

2025 Blue Jays: 25-23 (289-269) overperformed Pythagoras

But what really made the Blue Jays better than Boston and every other AL team last year? 

This is what announcers repeated all during the postseason: Toronto's offense was near the top in batting average and the bottom in strikeouts. 

And the unbeaten Jays are right there again through the first weekend of this season.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But what really made the Blue Jays better than Boston and every other AL team last year? 

A big part was just luck.

They got hot, when it counted.

[Old Red]

53 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

When it comes to average -- say, in a 10-game span -- there's no difference between a couple games scoring 10 runs and a couple more scoring zero, as long as in all the others they score 5.

But will agita-filled Red Sox fans who watch most of the games be happy to witness a few scoring 20 while the majority of the rest are stress fests all summer where Boston barely plates 3 runs or less...

Here's their 10-game sample: 20, 20, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0 = 52 runs divided by 10 = 5.2.

"Our record might be 3-7 or 4-6, but hey, we average seeing Boston score 5.2 runs per game," nobody will ever claim. 

Stats may be earefutable, but games are often eyeballfutile.

Eyeballfutile.👏

[notin]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I only watch one team in one sport on TV where the most runs win. 

But being a longtime Red Sox fan, it's hard getting used to the type of team playing when the most run wins.

If you’re not comparing them to the rest of the league, exactly what criteria are you using to say the offense isn’t good?  You’re literally saying the Sox could lead all of MLB in scoring and you’d find them insufficient…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

If you’re not comparing them to the rest of the league, exactly what criteria are you using to say the offense isn’t good?  You’re literally saying the Sox could lead all of MLB in scoring and you’d find them insufficient…

They are 22nd in runs, tied with the White Sox and the Marlins. Their OPS is 12th, so maybe SSS.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

When it comes to average -- say, in a 10-game span -- there's no difference between a couple games scoring 10 runs and a couple more scoring zero, as long as in all the others they score 5.

But will agita-filled Red Sox fans who watch most of the games be happy to witness a few scoring 20 while the majority of the rest are stress fests all summer where Boston barely plates 3 runs or less...

Here's their 10-game sample: 20, 20, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0 = 52 runs divided by 10 = 5.2.

"Our record might be 3-7 or 4-6, but hey, we average seeing Boston score 5.2 runs per game," nobody will ever claim. 

Stats may be earefutable, but games are often eyeballfutile.

I think this shows your point very well. Overall stats can be very misleading unless you actually see all that added up to those stats.

[moonslav59]

Injury Update:

Sandoval: Mid April/Early May (Left UCL)- will throw 4 innings today in extended ST'ing, then to minors rehab assignment.

Crawford: Late April/Early May (Right wrist subsheath tear) - will throw 4 innings today in extended ST'ing, then to minors rehab assignment.

Casas: May at the earliest (Ruptured left Patellar tendon)-was given clearance to run bases and slide. Will go to minor league rehab assignment, soon.

No update on Romy, who is on the 60 day IL with Houck.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They are 22nd in runs, tied with the White Sox and the Marlins. Their OPS is 12th, so maybe SSS.

Very possibly..,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

If you’re not comparing them to the rest of the league, exactly what criteria are you using to say the offense isn’t good?  

Any eyeball test can includes stats they read, like this weekend's AL team average of 4.53 runs per game... 

... the Red Sox' RPG is 3.33 -- with only Cleveland and KC below them. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Any eyeball test can includes stats they read, like this weekend's AL team average of 4.53 runs per game... 

... the Red Sox' RPG is 3.33 -- with only Cleveland and KC below them. 

Yes the good old eyeball test.

[moonslav59]

I prefer the eyelid test.

Keeping the eyes open is the first step towards becoming a good player.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Any eyeball test can includes stats they read, like this weekend's AL team average of 4.53 runs per game... 

... the Red Sox' RPG is 3.33 -- with only Cleveland and KC below them. 

You know as well as I do all the flaws with drawing any conclusions from those observations.

Probably best to get sufficient data before drawing any conclusions…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

You know as well as I do all the flaws with drawing any conclusions from those observations.

Probably best to get sufficient data before drawing any conclusions…

Of course, but as someone already said, what else do we have to go by so far?

It's still Early, and no matter the stats say, HE still hasn't allowed a run to score.

[moonslav59]

he just smoked my eyelids

and punched my cigarrette

[jdc69]

3 hours ago, notin said:

You know as well as I do all the flaws with drawing any conclusions from those observations.

Probably best to get sufficient data before drawing any conclusions…

Its obviously a balance and the balance is too far towards analytics. Are instincts nothing?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Of course, but as someone already said, what else do we have to go by so far?

It's still Early, and no matter the stats say, HE still hasn't allowed a run to score.

The stats confirm the observation that Early has done great.

[moonslav59]

Why is it not surprising we are one of two teams who have outscored their opponents but lost more games that we won?

The Rays and Sox are both +1 and 1-2.

That Ms ar +9 and 2-2.

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

Judge still has a .769 OPS though 😎

You won't be happy if he has a .769 OPS come September

[notin]

3 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Its obviously a balance and the balance is too far towards analytics. Are instincts nothing?

Actually it looks to me like analytics are certainly present, but I’m not so sure they dominate to the extent you’re claiming.  This team is still mostly Cora(although Cora himself can be heavily dependant on analytics)…

[Maxbialystock]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

A big part was just luck.

They got hot, when it counted.

Meh.  Sox had pitching last season but not much offense.  This year so far they have Crochet and Abreu and that's about it.  

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I didn't like this lineup going into spring training and I feel no different now.  Just way too many question marks without the big bat teams fear.  I'm not counting on Trevor Story, why should I?  They have an entire lineup filled with questionable, marginal or unproven bats.  What has taken place is no surprise to me.  

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why is it not surprising we are one of two teams who have outscored their opponents but lost more games that we won?

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I didn't like this lineup going into spring training and I feel no different now.  Just way too many question marks without the big bat teams fear.  I'm not counting on Trevor Story, why should I?  They have an entire lineup filled with questionable, marginal or unproven bats.  What has taken place is no surprise to me.  

They needed one more hitter. Trying to win every game 3-2 is easier said than done. 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They needed one more hitter. 

So many of us knew this, all along.

[Old Red]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They needed one more hitter. Trying to win every game 3-2 is easier said than done. 

Right now the lumber is in a slumber, and they pretty much only have one bat as it is. It will get better.

[moonslav59]

We better not dig too deep a hole, here.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We better not dig too deep a hole, here.

2025: 1-5 made the playoffs

2011: 0-6 missed the playoffs

We got the one win already, so we're good. 

 

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We better not dig too deep a hole, here.

Oh no! A BIG hole after only 4 games? I know they all count, but geez.

[drewski6]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So many of us knew this, all along.

You graded the offseason A-