A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[dannycater]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

He was much better than before and played a full season. He was not "great"

His defense fell off a cliff.

Well, Nomar defense did same in 2004

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, dannycater said:

Red is right...trying to compare this Banjo hitting, chi-chi sox like group to any of the Sox teams of the last 50 years is insulting to the lat 50 BoSox teams...Take all the analytics out of it, and it still comes down to offense. No offense, you lose. That's it...simple as that..bad team, no power, no runs. Breslow wanted this, he's got it. And he will be fired soon, I believe that.

Red Sox

1992 - 83 wRC+

1993 - 90 wRC+

1994 - 89 wRC+

92-94- 87 wRC+ 5th worst in MLB (includes FL/COL, two brand new franchises)

 

2026 - 85 wRC+

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Then I must once again ask, if his extended salary is microscopic, and his non-extended salary is microscopic,  and he is (at minimum) a really good player, what is the issue?

His extended salary isn't microscopic. It's 6M AAV. It's money they didn't need to spend. It reduces his trade value and locks the franchise into having these players in the org.

[Hugh2]

Part of the Red Sox failures has been underperformance and to some extent we should expect a "regression to the mean".  I certianly do. 

 

BUT

 

THey're 4th to last in runs score. 

They're 2nd to last in Home Runs

3rd to last in OPS, dead last in the AL

 

You can't explain that all by underperformance. The offense is poorly built and lacks star power.  THat's on the FO 100%.  How much of that is Breslow and how much of that is Henry handcuffing him IDK, but either way it's on the F.O. for constructing a bad product. 

[JoeBrady]

32 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Except the bullpen isn't why we are losing games.  The offense has retired. 

They are 2-8 excluding Bello.  But more importantly, they are highly reliant on just 2-3 guys.  Chapman's been great, Whitlock inconsistent, and Slaten has been injured.  I don't spew when Kelly and Samaniego come in, but they aren't quite what I want in my 7th inning guys.

Terrible?  No.  But we could've easily have done better.  The top listed guys by MLBR:

Name	ERA/FIP	Contract
Suarez	0.53/1.77	$45M/3
Keller	4.32/3.78	$22M/2
Finnegan	1.40/4.77	$19M/2
Weaver	4.41/3.85	$22M/2
Rogers	1.93/2.74	$37M/3
Soto	1.69/2.41	$8M/1

[Hugh2]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

They are 2-8 excluding Bello.  But more importantly, they are highly reliant on just 2-3 guys.  Chapman's been great, Whitlock inconsistent, and Slaten has been injured.  I don't spew when Kelly and Samaniego come in, but they aren't quite what I want in my 7th inning guys.

Terrible?  No.  But we could've easily have done better.  The top listed guys by MLBR:

Name	ERA/FIP	Contract
Suarez	0.53/1.77	$45M/3
Keller	4.32/3.78	$22M/2
Finnegan	1.40/4.77	$19M/2
Weaver	4.41/3.85	$22M/2
Rogers	1.93/2.74	$37M/3
Soto	1.69/2.41	$8M/1

If the bullpen comes in and blows a 1-1 tie and you lose 2-1 I get why you might say the problem is onthe bullpen, but when you're scoring 1-2 runs almost everynight the wider problem IS THE OFFENSE. 

If this team had some pop and blew some teams out here and there they wouldn't have to rely on the bullpen to keep them in every game. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Duran has had up and down years,

In his last three seasons, his OPS+ has has been 121, 132, and 117.

[JoeBrady]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His extended salary isn't microscopic. It's 6M AAV. It's money they didn't need to spend. It reduces his trade value and locks the franchise into having these players in the org.

• In a world where Mullins just signed for $7M, $6M is microscopic.
• In what universe should I be thinking about getting rid of a 4.1 bWAR (and rising) player.

[JoeBrady]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

when you're scoring 1-2 runs almost everynight the wider problem IS THE OFFENSE. 

Nobody disagrees with that.  But for the price of a good RP, we should've added another one.  And I think almost everyone agree with that.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

In his last three seasons, his OPS+ has has been 121, 132, and 117.

OK....is that leader of a ws caliber type of player? The Dodgers of Ohtani and Betts + the Yankees have Judge, the Rangers had Seager, the Phillies had Bryce Harper, The Astros had Altuve and Alvarez.  

If you're trying to compare Duran as our singular all star lead a team to a world series type of player you're wrong.  He's not that guy.  I like Duran, but he's not the leader of team, he can part of a veteran core....if he was like the 3rd or 4th guy that's fine.

Again, this team has arguably the WORSE offense in baseball right now and they severly lack leadership.  They don't have a constant.  Duran is the closest thing they have to it and yes he's underpeforming, but that's part of the problem.....that he's the closest thing they have to it. 

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

OK....is that leader of a ws caliber type of player? The Dodgers of Ohtani and Betts + the Yankees have Judge, the Rangers had Seager, the Phillies had Bryce Harper, The Astros had Altuve and Alvarez.  

If you're trying to compare Duran as our singular all star lead a team to a world series type of player you're wrong.  He's not that guy.  I like Duran, but he's not the leader of team, he can part of a veteran core....if he was like the 3rd or 4th guy that's fine.

Again, this team has arguably the WORSE offense in baseball right now and they severly lack leadership.  They don't have a constant.  Duran is the closest thing they have to it and yes he's underpeforming, but that's part of the problem.....that he's the closest thing they have to it. 

I was responding to someone saying Duran has had up and down years.  He hasn't.  He's been between good to very good.  He is not as good as Ohtani or Judge, but that's not his problem, and it is not the RS problem.

In fact, if you give me 9 Durans, I'm going to be very happy.

[Hugh2]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Nobody disagrees with that.  But for the price of a good RP, we should've added another one.  And I think almost everyone agree with that.

Caring about the bullpen was like the Sox going out and paying $$$ for another starter when they blatantly needed hitting.  

When you're team is 2nd to last in runs scored, and 2nd in runs allowed in the A.L. you're going get much more bang for your buck by adding offense.  way way way way more bang for your buck. 

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Part of the Red Sox failures has been underperformance and to some extent we should expect a "regression to the mean".  I certianly do. 

 

BUT

 

THey're 4th to last in runs score. 

They're 2nd to last in Home Runs

3rd to last in OPS, dead last in the AL

 

You can't explain that all by underperformance. The offense is poorly built and lacks star power.  THat's on the FO 100%.  How much of that is Breslow and how much of that is Henry handcuffing him IDK, but either way it's on the F.O. for constructing a bad product. 

Who cares about star power? WSH is second in runs and isn't loaded with stars.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I was responding to someone saying Duran has had up and down years.  He hasn't.  He's been between good to very good.  He is not as good as Ohtani or Judge, but that's not his problem, and it is not the RS problem.

In fact, if you give me 9 Durans, I'm going to be very happy.

 Yeah that was me, probably poorly worded and really a mute point for what I was trying to get across.  I got nothing against Duran, but his poor start aside relying on him and Story to be your two best players along witha rookie was poor planning. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Who cares about star power? WSH is second in runs and isn't loaded with stars.

You're right, the Sox did a great job at assembling an offense they're just off to a slow start.  They will be fine. 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

They are 2-8 excluding Bello.  But more importantly, they are highly reliant on just 2-3 guys.  Chapman's been great, Whitlock inconsistent, and Slaten has been injured.  I don't spew when Kelly and Samaniego come in, but they aren't quite what I want in my 7th inning guys.

Terrible?  No.  But we could've easily have done better.  The top listed guys by MLBR:

Name	ERA/FIP	Contract
Suarez	0.53/1.77	$45M/3
Keller	4.32/3.78	$22M/2
Finnegan	1.40/4.77	$19M/2
Weaver	4.41/3.85	$22M/2
Rogers	1.93/2.74	$37M/3
Soto	1.69/2.41	$8M/1

Weird list for sure. Per AAV:

Diaz

Iglesias

Williams

Suarez 

Helsley

Fairbankes

Only one of the top six AAV guys is listed? 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

• In a world where Mullins just signed for $7M, $6M is microscopic.
• In what universe should I be thinking about getting rid of a 4.1 bWAR (and rising) player.

He's not a FA. No reason to give him a raise just because. 

You might be happy with him today, you may not be happy with him 2 years from now. 

[Hugh2]

James wood has a 166 OPS + and is a former top prospect in all of the game.  He's 23 and well on his way to being a star.  Just because his name isn't marketable like Bryce Harper doesn't mean the team doesn't have any stars. 

They obviously have people performing like stars right now and budding into them.  

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Nobody disagrees with that.  But for the price of a good RP, we should've added another one.  And I think almost everyone agree with that.

Imagine if they had additional $$$ sitting around from not doing frivolous extensions! 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

James wood has a 166 OPS + and is a former top prospect in all of the game.  He's 23 and well on his way to being a star.  Just because his name isn't marketable like Bryce Harper doesn't mean the team doesn't have any stars. 

They obviously have people performing like stars right now and budding into them.  

Sure, but Roman Anthony has the same pedigree. Is it "production" or "star power?"

[JoeBrady]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Weird list for sure. Per AAV:

Diaz

Iglesias

Williams

Suarez 

Helsley

Fairbankes

Only one of the top six AAV guys is listed? 

The guys you listed are closers.  We only needed a good 7th inning guy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

When watching teams like this, it’s easy to pretend a potent offense is at least more fun to watch.  It isn’t.  Watching an 11-9 loss is just as frustrating.  The Sox SP has been excellent lately and no one is talking about it.

Personally, I had a lot more fun watching the Red Sox all those years when they were slugging and scoring runs. There certainly seemed to be a lot more fans cheering during those games. 

And as much as I like Lou Merloni, I couldn't stomach him last night saying that the Red Sox keep running into so many good pitchers. Is it possible this Red Sox offense makes so many pitchers look good?

Maybe my despair is easier to take in those 11-9 losses when a couple Red Sox pitchers blow a slugfest. Comparing that to losing a pitchers' duel is a numbers game for me, when I'm more frustrated watching 9 or 10 inept batters basically offer little hope of scoring, inning after inning after inning.

 

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's not a FA. No reason to give him a raise just because. 

You might be happy with him today, you may not be happy with him 2 years from now. 

• It's not just 'because'.  It's 'because' he was willing to lock in future years on the cheap, plus the option year.
• If you don't want to sign good young players because you 'might' not be happy in two years, then I assume you are adamant against signing extremely expensive players that you 'might' be unhappy with in two years.

Just to put it another way, I would gladly wager that Ceddanne will have a higher bWAR than Bregman over the next 5 years.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

• It's not just 'because'.  It's 'because' he was willing to lock in future years on the cheap, plus the option year.
• If you don't want to sign good young players because you 'might' not be happy in two years, then I assume you are adamant against signing extremely expensive players that you 'might' be unhappy with in two years.

Just to put it another way, I would gladly wager that Ceddanne will have a higher bWAR than Bregman over the next 5 years.

You locked him into 2/24 for 30-31 at the expense of trade flexibility and payroll flexibility now. How much would he realistically sign for on the open market then? I don't think you're saving much money TBH. You're basically planting your flag in CF with Rafaela for better or worse. At one point after '24, people were holding their noses and saying "maybe he's just a UTIL, but it's ok because of how great Duran is." 

I think you only extend certain players. I don't think you extend all every day players that come through the system. It doesn't make financial or baseball sense to me. Not every prospect works out and you're going to see a lot of underwater contracts.

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe my despair is easier to take in those 11-9 losses when a couple Red Sox pitchers blow a slugfest

I wouldn't suggest any particular way for a RS fan to enjoy a game.  But for me, I like to see the message the game is sending me.  If I had a choice between Bello losing 2-1, or Bello losing 11-9, I want the 2-1 loss.  If we have/get Crochet, Suarez, Bello, Tolle, and Early, all pitching well, we will win games even with our current offense,

And just as important, adding a slugger in a trade is a lot easier than adding a #3 SP.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Personally, I had a lot more fun watching the Red Sox all those years when they were slugging and scoring runs. There certainly seemed to be a lot more fans cheering during those games. 

And as much as I like Lou Merloni, I couldn't stomach him last night saying that the Red Sox keep running into so many good pitchers. Is it possible this Red Sox offense makes so many pitchers look good?

Maybe my despair is easier to take in those 11-9 losses when a couple Red Sox pitchers blow a slugfest. Comparing that to losing a pitchers' duel is a numbers game for me, when I'm more frustrated watching 9 or 10 inept batters basically offer little hope of scoring, inning after inning after inning.

 

Good post, and I agree that even when the Red Sox had some bad teams in the early 1960’s they could sill put up some runs. Even watching Earl Wilson hit was more exciting than some of the ineptness going on now. It is much more exciting to me to watch the Red Sox score 9 runs than it is to scratch, and claw for 1 run even in a loss.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You locked him into 2/24 for 30-31 at the expense of trade flexibility and payroll flexibility now. How much would he realistically sign for on the open market then? I don't think you're saving much money TBH. You're basically planting your flag in CF with Rafaela for better or worse. At one point after '24, people were holding their noses and saying "maybe he's just a UTIL, but it's ok because of how great Duran is." 

I think you only extend certain players. I don't think you extend all every day players that come through the system. It doesn't make financial or baseball sense to me. Not every prospect works out and you're going to see a lot of underwater contracts.

Bingo! Not every prospect works out no matter how high they are ranked.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dannycater said:

Well, Nomar defense did same in 2004

We shoulda traded Story like we did Nomar.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

 Yeah that was me, probably poorly worded and really a mute point for what I was trying to get across.  I got nothing against Duran, but his poor start aside relying on him and Story to be your two best players along witha rookie was poor planning. 

I think they expected Contreras and Abreu to be top 3 bats.

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

You locked him into 2/24 for 30-31 at the expense of trade flexibility and payroll flexibility now. How much would he realistically sign for on the open market then? I don't think you're saving much money TBH. You're basically planting your flag in CF with Rafaela for better or worse. At one point after '24, people were holding their noses and saying "maybe he's just a UTIL, but it's ok because of how great Duran is." 

I think you only extend certain players. I don't think you extend all every day players that come through the system. It doesn't make financial or baseball sense to me. Not every prospect works out and you're going to see a lot of underwater contracts.

• It is also $17M/3 for years 4/5/6, which is very cheap.  Kwan is getting $12M for years 4&5, and maybe $10M for year 6.  Adolis Garcia got $24M for years 4/5/6.
• What payroll flexibility?  He gets paid $2.25M instead of minimum wage.  What were your plans for the extra $1.5M?
• And again, in what universe do I want to get rid of him?