A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Who is he going to elevate?

Durbin, Anthony & Raffy to start with.  All are well below average.  FWIW, the RS are 24th in LA.  LA isn't the end-all/be-all stat, But some guys, particularly Anthony, need to life the ball more often.

[Duran Is The Man]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They can't all be beefcakes like Aaron Judge's hitting coach, right? 

 

it's more how he's holding the bat. looks like he's never held one in his life.

[Duran Is The Man]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And no wonder Brez is so frustrated -- why can't his players get with the program?

Not one Red Sox batter holds his hands that low, knuckles misaligned, and elbows splayed in opposite directions doing the chicken dance. 

exactly.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Durbin, Anthony & Raffy to start with.  All are well below average.  FWIW, the RS are 24th in LA.  LA isn't the end-all/be-all stat, But some guys, particularly Anthony, need to life the ball more often.

Anthony is 85th percentile in LA sweet-spot%. Rafaela is 71st (up from previous years). 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it's more how he's holding the bat. looks like he's never held one in his life.

Let's see him swing! Maybe he can hit has 110 exit velo in him. 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And no wonder Brez is so frustrated -- why can't his players get with the program?

Not one Red Sox batter holds his hands that low, knuckles misaligned, and elbows splayed in opposite directions doing the chicken dance. 

Looks like the right handed Sultan of Swat to me! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Looks like the right handed Sultan of Swat to me! 

Couch tater trying to swat a housefly with a rolled up newspaper.

"We sting the bug hardly and off the linoleum!"

[dannycater]

The Sox have adopted the Bruins 200-foot game philosophy...that's about as far as they hit the ball...200 feet. They are also defense first like the B's.

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony is 85th percentile in LA sweet-spot%. Rafaela is 71st (up from previous years). 

Anthony is hammering the ball, but not getting any elevation.  91st in bat speed, 87th in EV, but only 1 HR,  I have no problem with a balanced approach.  Some guys with weaker bats  are better off spreading the ball around, with a line-drive approach, especially if they are fast.  Anthony should be looking for 30+ HRs.

[mvp 78]

Read an article on Boddy and wanted to pull out a few interesting items: 

 

Boddy confirmed the staffer — who felt Rice’s advice strayed from the Red Sox’ approach — was never employed by Driveline or associated with his company.

“It does bother me,” Boddy said, adding Rice “is one of the best players to ever play the game.”

Boddy said he would never discourage a player from seeking advice from a Hall of Famer because it might differ from what Driveline or the Red Sox teach. In fact, he said the Red Sox’ offensive approach aligns with what Ted Williams preached – pulling the ball in the air — and he added, “a lot of this stuff is not new.”

 

“The best teams make a lot of contact,” Boddy said.

That played out in 2025. The American League champion Blue Jays produced the lowest strikeout (17.8%) and whiff (21.6%) percentages among the 30 major league teams. They put more balls in play (4,488) than any other team, 291 more balls in play than the Red Sox hit.

“It’s really convenient for radio hosts or whoever to knock him,” an NL GM said about Boddy, “Anyone that has actually gotten to know him and understood what he’s actually about, they don’t think that.”

 

“You probably can’t tell looking at me, but tennis was probably my No. 1 game for a while,” Boddy said, poking fun at how he’s built.

In multiple games around Little League-age, Boddy threw over 200 pitches. It was when nobody knew any better and his own arm injuries caused him to lose love for baseball for a period of time.

“I loved baseball when I was really young. I fell out of love with it,” he said. “Arm injuries. That’s kind of why this company exists.”

 

In June, Boddy said veteran third baseman Alex Bregman’s value was unquantifiable, even making teammates more valuable by giving them suggestions to improve their games.

Boddy said that’s something that the “nerds … don’t think about” as much as they should.

 

Boddy cautioned against too much focus on the numbers during a game.

“When the old-school people get pissed off, is when these numbers dominate the discourse rather than what happens on the field. And I agree with that,” Boddy said. “Between the lines, we should not talk about any of that stuff. Outside the lines is where it matters.”

 

“It’s a power-on-power game these days and maybe I actually agree with talk radio hosts that I don’t think that leads to a very entertaining product, in my opinion,” Boddy said.

Research shows fans want to see balls in play and more players involved, Boddy pointed out.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Anthony is hammering the ball, but not getting any elevation.  91st in bat speed, 87th in EV, but only 1 HR,  I have no problem with a balanced approach.  Some guys with weaker bats are better off are better off spreading the ball around, with a line-drive approach, especially if they are fast.  Anthony should be looking for 30+ HRs.

His GB/LD/FB rates are similar to last season. The HR's will come. He's just in the thick of it right now. 

[notin]

34 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Couch tater trying to swat a housefly with a rolled up newspaper.

"We sting the bug hardly and off the linoleum!"

He swats the bug hard but it goes directly to the shortstop for an easy 6-3…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

“The best teams make a lot of contact,” Boddy said. The American League champion Blue Jays produced the lowest strikeout (17.8%) and whiff (21.6%). They put more balls in play (4,488) than any other team, 291 more balls in play than the Red Sox hit.

In June, Boddy said veteran third baseman Alex Bregman’s value was unquantifiable, even making teammates more valuable by giving them suggestions to improve their games.

Boddy said that’s something that the “nerds … don’t think about” as much as they should.

Dang yo -- I better stop posting about him; he sounds too familiar. Boddy should also watch it on forums like this, before someone calls him names.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

When you have a bullpen with Kelly, Watson and Gamboa.

[drewski6]

Isnt a Gamboa one of those little mushroom men in Bowsers army or is that a goomba?

[iortiz]

In other order of ideas, seems like Sandoval will never pitch in Red Sox uniform under the current contract. Breslow wanted to play genius but only wasted money again for nothing. Won't be surprised at all if he pitches somewhere else later and be a CY candidate.

[vegasbob]

Didn't know Danny C. had a cervix but new surprises all the time with the walking wounded on the Sox.

Sandoval is a true write off now.   

The lineup got an early Cinco de Mayo gift from Skubal's misfortune.   Take advantage of it?? Who knows ??

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Isnt a Gamboa one of those little mushroom men in Bowsers army or is that a goomba?

Gumby might be a better pitcher.

[Duran Is The Man]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Read an article on Boddy and wanted to pull out a few interesting items: 

 

Boddy confirmed the staffer — who felt Rice’s advice strayed from the Red Sox’ approach — was never employed by Driveline or associated with his company.

“It does bother me,” Boddy said, adding Rice “is one of the best players to ever play the game.”

Boddy said he would never discourage a player from seeking advice from a Hall of Famer because it might differ from what Driveline or the Red Sox teach. In fact, he said the Red Sox’ offensive approach aligns with what Ted Williams preached – pulling the ball in the air — and he added, “a lot of this stuff is not new.”

 

“The best teams make a lot of contact,” Boddy said.

That played out in 2025. The American League champion Blue Jays produced the lowest strikeout (17.8%) and whiff (21.6%) percentages among the 30 major league teams. They put more balls in play (4,488) than any other team, 291 more balls in play than the Red Sox hit.

“It’s really convenient for radio hosts or whoever to knock him,” an NL GM said about Boddy, “Anyone that has actually gotten to know him and understood what he’s actually about, they don’t think that.”

 

“You probably can’t tell looking at me, but tennis was probably my No. 1 game for a while,” Boddy said, poking fun at how he’s built.

In multiple games around Little League-age, Boddy threw over 200 pitches. It was when nobody knew any better and his own arm injuries caused him to lose love for baseball for a period of time.

“I loved baseball when I was really young. I fell out of love with it,” he said. “Arm injuries. That’s kind of why this company exists.”

 

In June, Boddy said veteran third baseman Alex Bregman’s value was unquantifiable, even making teammates more valuable by giving them suggestions to improve their games.

Boddy said that’s something that the “nerds … don’t think about” as much as they should.

 

Boddy cautioned against too much focus on the numbers during a game.

“When the old-school people get pissed off, is when these numbers dominate the discourse rather than what happens on the field. And I agree with that,” Boddy said. “Between the lines, we should not talk about any of that stuff. Outside the lines is where it matters.”

 

“It’s a power-on-power game these days and maybe I actually agree with talk radio hosts that I don’t think that leads to a very entertaining product, in my opinion,” Boddy said.

Research shows fans want to see balls in play and more players involved, Boddy pointed out.

yeah, but.....either the Sox have the worst bunch of hitters on the planet or this guy isn't doing his job.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Sandoval on the 60 day IL. 😂😂😂😂 nice way to burn $18 million dollars there Breslow.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Sandoval on the 60 day IL. 😂😂😂😂 nice way to burn $18 million dollars there Breslow.

I'd like to say, "Learn your lesson well," but we all know this winter will bring the next one.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah, but.....either the Sox have the worst bunch of hitters on the planet or this guy isn't doing his job.

Their hard hit % has fallen off a cliff early on. Was he bad at his job last year when they were towards the top of the league at hitting the ball hard? Is this just small sample size? 

Duran is hitting the ball better recently. Others may pick it up sooner than later. Swapping Bregman for Durbin may have been a big mistake if Durbin can't get the ball in the air. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Their hard hit % has fallen off a cliff early on. Was he bad at his job last year when they were towards the top of the league at hitting the ball hard? Is this just small sample size? 

Duran is hitting the ball better recently. Others may pick it up sooner than later. Swapping Bregman for Durbin may have been a big mistake if Durbin can't get the ball in the air. 

Durbin has been horrific, and I'm not sure that's even a strong enough word.

I think the idea was that Contreras would do better than Toro, Lowe & Co at 1B to make up for the drop off from 2/3 of a Bregman season to a full Durbin season.

Maybe they forgot about the loss of Devers.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Durbin has been horrific, and I'm not sure that's even a strong enough word.

I think the idea was that Contreras would do better than Toro, Lowe & Co at 1B to make up for the drop off from 2/3 of a Bregman season to a full Durbin season.

Maybe they forgot about the loss of Devers.

I think they believed Devers was replaced by Roman TBH. The two of them only overlapped for a little over a week, I believe. If Roman had a 140 wRC+ like last season, this lineup would look a lot different.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they believed Devers was replaced by Roman TBH. The two of them only overlapped for a little over a week, I believe. If Roman had a 140 wRC+ like last season, this lineup would look a lot different.

I think this is true, and our offense was about the same pre and post Devers in 2025.

I think they also expected upticks from Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Mayer, Wong and others as they neared prime years.

[moonslav59]

Word down here in Houston is that a firesale may be brewing.

The team is 14-22 and would be 9-21 had they not played the Sox 6 times.

Yordan will not be traded, but he's only owed $27M x 3 (to age 32.)

Javier makes $21M x 2 and would be a salary dump (Yoshida? Story?)

Hader gets $19M x 3 but can't stay on the mound.

Imai makes $18M x 3.

Pena make $9.5M and has one arb left.

Paredes gets $9.4M with an option for 2027.

Yainer Diaz has 2 arbs left.

Hunter Brown has 2 arbs left but is likely untouchable.

RP'ers King (pre-arb) and Sousa (3 arbs) have been hurt.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think this is true, and our offense was about the same pre and post Devers in 2025.

I think they also expected upticks from Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Mayer, Wong and others as they neared prime years.

They knew better. They analyze so many metrics for expected outcomes that it's hard not to accept that all those guys aren't really stars. Decent players, but ideally supplements on a good roster. 

Anthony's a different man this season -- as a kid anointed The Face of the Franchise -- and suddenly the oblique of the franchise, the shoulder of the franchise, and the wrist of the franchise.

Breslow pivoted to a starting rotation to keep him in most games, but all those established pitchers are hurt -- except Bello (as far as we know). Luckily, the top mound prospects are already here with more on the way.

If they don't mind "rushing" a few more that have the stuff to get any human out, then the season could still be interesting.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Word down here in Houston is that a firesale may be brewing.

The team is 14-22 and would be 9-21 had they not played the Sox 6 times.

Yordan will not be traded, but he's only owed $27M x 3 (to age 32.)

Javier makes $21M x 2 and would be a salary dump (Yoshida? Story?)

Hader gets $19M x 3 but can't stay on the mound.

Imai makes $18M x 3.

Pena make $9.5M and has one arb left.

Paredes gets $9.4M with an option for 2027.

Yainer Diaz has 2 arbs left.

Hunter Brown has 2 arbs left but is likely untouchable.

RP'ers King (pre-arb) and Sousa (3 arbs) have been hurt.

 

yordan and brown are the only two i'd really want.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yordan and brown are the only two i'd really want.

I'd rather have Pena than Story, but I don't see a match. Paredes is good, too.

One major aspect would be how much money HOU would be trying to gut. I doubt they'd take Story and prospects for Pena & Javier (a salary dump that cuts into Story's cost.)

Why would HOU take Story, Yoshida and a bunch of good prospects for Pena, Paredes, Javier and Hader? 

I doubt JH takes on that much salary, too.

I don't see a fit.