A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think this is true, and our offense was about the same pre and post Devers in 2025.

I think they also expected upticks from Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Mayer, Wong and others as they neared prime years.

Mayer's k rate has been nearly cut in half FWIW. Abreu's numbs have gone up, but they did early last season as well. 

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They knew better. They analyze so many metrics for expected outcomes that it's hard not to accept that all those guys aren't really stars. Decent players, but ideally supplements on a good roster. 

Anthony's a different man this season -- as a kid anointed The Face of the Franchise -- and suddenly the oblique of the franchise, the shoulder of the franchise, and the wrist of the franchise.

Breslow pivoted to a starting rotation to keep him in most games, but all those established pitchers are hurt -- except Bello (as far as we know). Luckily, the top mound prospects are already here with more on the way.

If they don't mind "rushing" a few more that have the stuff to get any human out, then the season could still be interesting.

Pitchers get injured climbing into bed these days. Hard to build your team solely around pitching and see success year in and year out simply due to IL stints. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer's k rate has been nearly cut in half FWIW. Abreu's numbs have gone up, but they did early last season as well. 

True, but overall the players ages 22-26, who should be progressing/improving have, as a whole, not done so.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but overall the players ages 22-26, who should be progressing/improving have, as a whole, not done so.

The bigger problem to start the season was that 3 starters (Durbin, Story and Duran) were among the 10 worst hitters in the game. Story and Duran were expected to be top of the order bats by the organization. Combine that with Roman not performing and it's a recipe for disaster. 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The bigger problem to start the season was that 3 starters (Durbin, Story and Duran) were among the 10 worst hitters in the game. Story and Duran were expected to be top of the order bats by the organization. Combine that with Roman not performing and it's a recipe for disaster. 

I think it affected Duran that he wasn’t in the lineup everyday, and now that he is he’s starting to come around. No excuses  for Story, or Dubin though. Hopefully Story goes on one of his hot streaks sooner than later.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They knew better. They analyze so many metrics for expected outcomes that it's hard not to accept that all those guys aren't really stars. Decent players, but ideally supplements on a good roster. 

Anthony's a different man this season -- as a kid anointed The Face of the Franchise -- and suddenly the oblique of the franchise, the shoulder of the franchise, and the wrist of the franchise.

Breslow pivoted to a starting rotation to keep him in most games, but all those established pitchers are hurt -- except Bello (as far as we know). Luckily, the top mound prospects are already here with more on the way.

If they don't mind "rushing" a few more that have the stuff to get any human out, then the season could still be interesting.

 

little Anthony was already called Roman Garoppolo a couple of weeks ago on one of the talk shows, and here he is hurt again.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The bigger problem to start the season was that 3 starters (Durbin, Story and Duran) were among the 10 worst hitters in the game. Story and Duran were expected to be top of the order bats by the organization. Combine that with Roman not performing and it's a recipe for disaster. 

Indeed. Anthony, Duran, Story & Durbin have fallen way short of expectations, but only 2 (Contreras & Abreu plus maybe Rafaela) have met expectations.

Couple this with so many injured and underperforming pitchers and it's no wonder we have sucked.

[notin]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but overall the players ages 22-26, who should be progressing/improving have, as a whole, not done so.

It’s nice when they improve, but you can’t schedule it.  The Sophomore Slump was thing decades before anyone gave an extension to a controllable 22yo.

Anthony is hitting the ball roughly the same as he did last year.  Mayer is a little worse.  But neither has just fallen completely off the pace. Narvaez is actually hitting much, much better than last year, but he is striking out a little more and walking a little less,  For some of these players, this will eventually show up in their baseball card stats…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think this is true, and our offense was about the same pre and post Devers in 2025.

I think they also expected upticks from Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Mayer, Wong and others as they neared prime years.

I dont think we went from Breslow talking big about adding to the offense (along with bringing Bregman back) to bringing in Willson alone for offense because we decided we had enough.  Not much changed regarding Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu from early off-season to late offseason.  What did change , however, was the market of available bats (including Bregman) because Breslow couldnt get enough done to fix or even tread neutral on the offense

All of this is to say that we pivoted.  And we didnt pivot because we decided that we no longer needed the bats, we pivoted because we couldnt get them because Breslow doesnt respect hitters

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think we went from Breslow talking big about adding to the offense (along with bringing Bregman back) to bringing in Willson alone for offense because we decided we had enough.  Not much changed regarding Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu from early off-season to late offseason.  What did change , however, was the market of available bats (including Bregman) because Breslow couldnt get enough done to fix or even tread neutral on the offense

All of this is to say that we pivoted.  And we didnt pivot because we decided that we no longer needed the bats, we pivoted because we couldnt get them because Breslow doesnt respect hitters

I think he wanted Bregman and felt he was a big enough bat to fill our needs. (I didn't.)

When that deal fell through, there really wasn't much left, so he pivoted to pitching.

I'm not sure he respected pitching more than hitting. Suarez was not his first choice.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

All of this is to say that we pivoted.  And we didnt pivot because we decided that we no longer needed the bats, we pivoted because we couldnt get them because Breslow doesnt respect hitters

You made me look up Breslow's career splits:

Lifetime record 23-30, 3.45 in 576 games. Ok, serviceable MLB reliever...

... but ERA in his Wins and Losses: 0.63 and... 14.26 -- for his career. And zero HRs vs. 12 HRs.

Might he be one of those ex-pros who fondly remembers success and totally forgets his failures? After all, relievers are programmed to immediately flush any bad experiences and be ready for the next opportunity.

 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Pitchers get injured climbing into bed these days. Hard to build your team solely around pitching and see success year in and year out simply due to IL stints. 

Exactly.

[drewski6]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he wanted Bregman and felt he was a big enough bat to fill our needs. (I didn't.)

When that deal fell through, there really wasn't much left, so he pivoted to pitching.

I'm not sure he respected pitching more than hitting. Suarez was not his first choice.

I didnt say he doesnt respect hitting, I said he doesnt respect hitters.  He insulted Bregman to his face.

But I do agree that Breslows original plan was Bregman+ more and Contreras wound up being the "more"

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to say, "Learn your lesson well," but we all know this winter will bring the next one.

So cutting bait after spending $108 million for 140 IP from across 4 seasons from Chris  Sale falls where in this lesson?

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You made me look up Breslow's career splits:

Lifetime record 23-30, 3.45 in 576 games. Ok, serviceable MLB reliever...

... but ERA in his Wins and Losses: 0.63 and... 14.26 -- for his career. And zero HRs vs. 12 HRs.

Might he be one of those ex-pros who fondly remembers success and totally forgets his failures? After all, relievers are programmed to immediately flush any bad experiences and be ready for the next opportunity.

 

I honestly think hes just a pompous jerk and doesnt treat people with respect.  But at least he has some common ground with pitchers to relationship build.  But Breslow is a relationship ruiner and Tek aint coming back.  Im hoping to see Tek as the next great manager for another team.  Not that I believe that managers move the needle enough to be "great"

But I saw this happening and was saying that Breslows inability to communicate/relate would be a problem and everyone last year was like "um, record!!"  And I said fine, and even stopped complaining so much about Breslow.  It appeared that he and Cora settled their weird thing at the beginning of last season (especially when Cora was extended).

But Breslow has the biggest ego in the room and you just cant have that from an executive. And it makes this team extremely hard to root for.  In a way, Breslow is almost the perfect fit because this spread rumors , insult...was an issue even before Breslow and I cant help but wonder if thats why/how he hit it off enough with his interviewer to get the job.

Wait, you think humans are nothing but a means to your own ends?  OMG, welcome aboard.

 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You made me look up Breslow's career splits:

Lifetime record 23-30, 3.45 in 576 games. Ok, serviceable MLB reliever...

... but ERA in his Wins and Losses: 0.63 and... 14.26 -- for his career. And zero HRs vs. 12 HRs.

Might he be one of those ex-pros who fondly remembers success and totally forgets his failures? After all, relievers are programmed to immediately flush any bad experiences and be ready for the next opportunity.

Wait... A guy who was a one inning reliever had a bad ERA when he lost games? WTH?

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

So cutting bait after spending $108 million for 140 IP from across 4 seasons from Chris  Sale falls where in this lesson?

Theres a few lessons in there, 1. Build through the offense for reasons MVP just said, 2. If you get a year like Crochet gave us last year, dont waste it like we did at the deadline last year because an end-to-end ace staying healthy is rare and has enough of a crapshoot factor so you shouldnt overspend on it.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

So cutting bait after spending $108 million for 140 IP from across 4 seasons from Chris  Sale falls where in this lesson?

No true Scotsman? 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think this is true, and our offense was about the same pre and post Devers in 2025.

I think they also expected upticks from Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Mayer, Wong and others as they neared prime years.

The offense was decidedly worse after Devers, plummeting from 4.86 runs per game with Devers all the way down to 4.84 runs per game after trading him.  That can amount to as much as TWO FULL RUNS across 100 games.  Thank God the pitching and only the pitching stepped up so this team could overcome this catastrophic deficit!

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Theres a few lessons in there, 1. Build through the offense for reasons MVP just said, 2. If you get a year like Crochet gave us last year, dont waste it like we did at the deadline last year because an end-to-end ace staying healthy is rare and has enough of a crapshoot factor so you shouldnt overspend on it.

I don't think it's "build through offense" but more "take a balanced approach." They swung it so far towards pitching that they desperately needed the pitching to be both healthy and lights out in order to win games. They really assumed health for all of the starters and dealt away a ton of depth in ultimately meaningless trades (particularly Durbin). 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Thank God the pitching and only the pitching stepped up so this team could overcome this catastrophic deficit!

Thanks Bailes! 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No true Scotsman? 

Not really.  Unless you’re trying to make it one.

The Sox have paid pitchers to be injured before.  But we focus on the miniscule ones like Kluber and Sandoval as horrific wastes, yet still lament the bigger spend as one the Sox should have seen through

 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

The offense was decidedly worse after Devers, plummeting from 4.86 runs per game with Devers all the way down to 4.84 runs per game after trading him.  That can amount to as much as TWO FULL RUNS across 100 games.  Thank God the pitching and only the pitching stepped up so this team could overcome this catastrophic deficit!

I credit Cora and a host of fired coaches getting the most of guys like Toro, Lowe to get us through the season and eventually make the playoffs. But in the playoffs, talent usually wins out, and out lack of bats in the playoffs was too much to overcome.  Because Breslow botched last year by making our offense worse as the year progressed.  

ANd then breslow botched this offseason, again, not doing what he needed to do to fix the offense. 

And this is just not a good hitting team.  Maybe we are ranked like 29 and some of that is slumps and unforeseeable disasters, but this team was ranked by almost everyone to be a mid hitting team at best.  

And the only lesson worth its weight here is : never again

But when people talk about how bad all the other FA are doing that we didnt get, and jumping for joy that at least we arent the phillies, or making excuses....Well, it makes me think that the lesson here isnt getting fully absorbed by those who "got the Sox team they wanted" (no big contracts, infusion of youth, everything looked at from a $/WAR standpoint (chasing max efficiency), worrying about position so much that you ignore potentially lineup changing hitters, thinking defense moves the needle nearly as much as offense, thinking you can skimp on the bats or use hopium, thinking we dont need elite hitters, thinking Breslow is worth keeping, thinking we had a good offseason.......To all that , I say : peeeee-youuuuuuu

[Old Red]

To me the point that the Red Sox won more games after Devers left, and that the offense didn’t drop off much of anything, but that the Red Sox would have won more games, and they would have scored more runs if Devers would have stayed IMO, and not to mention once again that he could have made the difference in the postseason against the YANKEES.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I didnt say he doesnt respect hitting, I said he doesnt respect hitters.  He insulted Bregman to his face.

But I do agree that Breslows original plan was Bregman+ more and Contreras wound up being the "more"

I do think he disrespected Bregman by doubting the Cubs offer was even there. I'm not sure it was because he was a hitter.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Theres a few lessons in there, 1. Build through the offense for reasons MVP just said, 2. If you get a year like Crochet gave us last year, dont waste it like we did at the deadline last year because an end-to-end ace staying healthy is rare and has enough of a crapshoot factor so you shouldnt overspend on it.

Just get 9 bats and figure out where they play later?  I’ve never seen that work. 

Durbin (admittedly my focus) isn’t the problem because they chose position over offense in the same way Schwarber would be the problem because they chose offense and ignored position.   The Sox did need an infielder.  There’s no getting around that.  
 

The problem is that Durbin was clearly not the infielder they needed, at least not yet.  Of course most of the hard-hitting free agents that were available, at least as free agents (Bregman, Bichette) are not off to much better starts.  And the rumored trade candidates only seemed to be available at the expense of the more notable names on the young pitching depth chart.

 

 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Not really.  Unless you’re trying to make it one.

The Sox have paid pitchers to be injured before.  But we focus on the miniscule ones like Kluber and Sandoval as horrific wastes, yet still lament the bigger spend as one the Sox should have seen through

If the return for Sale wasn't a dog turd, I think it'd be easier to understand that trade. Whatever internal scouting/metrics they had on Grissom was a big time failure. What's really cool is he's now OPS'ing over 800 for LAA. 🤪

[notin]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I credit Cora and a host of fired coaches getting the most of guys like Toro, Lowe to get us through the season and eventually make the playoffs. But in the playoffs, talent usually wins out, and out lack of bats in the playoffs was too much to overcome.  Because Breslow botched last year by making our offense worse as the year progressed.  

 

That’s fine to give them credit, but when this year the same players were dreadful right out of the gate, were those same coaches accountable?