A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Mayer is going to see the IL whether he's well rested or not. 

And they probably prefer IKF be somewhat prepared when that happens, rather than just sitting on the bench for months morphing into I-KG…

[moonslav59]

1, Duran v R/ Romy v L

2. Anthony

3. Contreras

4. Abreu v R/Story v L

5. Story v R/Abreu v L

6. Durbin

7. Mayer v R/ Duran v L

8. Narvaez

9. Rafaela

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

And they probably prefer IKF be somewhat prepared when that happens, rather than just sitting on the bench for months morphing into I-KG…

I heard IKF was a good clubhouse guy. He's supposed to leave the clubhouse at some point? 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I heard IKF was a good clubhouse guy. He's supposed to leave the clubhouse at some point? 

At least once after every meal…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Anthony
Contreras
Duran
Story
Abreu
Durbin
Mayer
Narvaez
Cedanne
 

I think this is what Cora uses as a template. He may swap Abreu and Story vs lefty-righty.

[moonslav59]

Some wild cards in the Red Sox 2026 season will be...

Kutter Crawford: After a very promising 2023 season that saw Crawford put up a 3.83 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, he took a step back in '24, despite leading the team in IP. The hope is he can regain the same stuff Merloni has been raving about all winter.

Patrick Sandoval: You have to go back a bit farther than Crawford's timeline to find the time when Sandoval looked pretty sharp. Over 41 GS from '21-'22 he put up a 3.17 ERA/3.44 FIP/1.29 WHIP. He's done nothing in the last 3 years to show any signed he can pitch like that again, but that's what makes him a wild card.

Justin Slaten: This guy doesn't seem to get the talk he maybe deserves. In his first two seasons in MLB, he has a 3.43 ERA but a 3.02 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. He got hurt, last season and saw his K/9 got from 9.4 to 6.6, so the doubts linger. He's got some nasty stuff. Let's hope he finds it, again.

Tristan Casas: To me, this guy could be the answer to all our worries about the offense, and no, he does not need to have a career year. He just needs to stay healthy and repeat what he did from '23 to '24. He just turned 26, but is coming off major knee surgery and may not be ready until May or so. From '23-'24 he had a 127 OPS+ (.838 OPS.) Projected from thos 745 PAs to 650, this would be his season line: .256 33 86, with a nifty .357 OBP and .480 SLG.

Marcelo Mayer: This highly touted top 4 draft pick from 2021 has dealt with a series of injuries that make us all wonder if it's an issue or just some bad luck that could pass by. He has struggled vs LHPs, even in the minors, and has to work through that issue to avoid a 2025 platoon (with Romy.) He's only 23 and still has a lot of promise with his bat, and he looked pretty decent on defense at 3B, last year. Maybe he's the 2Bman we've been waiting for for about a decade. Maybe not.

Caleb Durbin: I could have counted Narvaez, too, as both were rookies in 2025, but to me Caleb is more of the wild card- perhaps just because I haven't seen him play and his height has always been a concern. Hitting .721 your rookie year is nothing to apologize for, and he had an .858 OPS in AAA, but in the lower levels, he struggled to get above .755. Maybe playing half his games in Fenway will give him a boost.

One could call Contreras, Gray, Story and Chapman wild cards due to their ages, Abreu, Rafaela & Duran wild cards due to unknowns brought about by past inconsistent hitting stretches, and Bello due to his uneven metrics from '24 to '25. Tolle, Early and Campbell could also be high impact players in 2026, if they get a long enough look.

[Larry Cook]

13 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Anthony
Contreras
Duran
Story
Abreu
Durbin
Mayer
Narvaez
Cedanne
 

It is so painful to see story in the lineup in the top 4!  

[JoeBrady]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some wild cards in the Red Sox 2026 season will be...

I mentioned last year that we had a good team, but a wild amount of variance.  I feel a lot better this year.  My wildcards:

• Catcher-We should be okay, but Narvaez is a sophomore, ended the year hurt, and Wong was bad.
• Chapman-Almost impossible for him to be as good, and is 38.  Whitlock is one of my favorite players, but I am not sure he is a closer.
• Mayer just a little.  He should be good, and even if he is just mediocre, we have IKF.  But he can't bomb completely either.  I like IKF a lot in his UIF role, but less so as a FT starter.

[Nick]

On 2/13/2026 at 10:35 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Dang -- take it back. Stop, before this is all over the internet.

We can use some humor from time to time. I deal with female athletes. They hate me using the word BIG.

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It is so painful to see story in the lineup in the top 4!  

If he had a higher OBP, his speed could be a larger asset batting 2nd.

If his power was higher, and he didn't K so much, batting 3rd or 4th would be okay, if those around him were pluses.

He is neither.

Idealy, we'd alternate Story and Abreu in the 6 slot. I guess Abreu would be fine up 5th vs RHPs and 6th vs LHPs, but Story up 5th ve LHPs is too high for me, too. Good thing we can stick Romy in the top 5, somewhere, but pushing Story to 6th or 7th can only happen if other do well or better than expected.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good thing we can stick Romy in the top 5, somewhere, but pushing Story to 6th or 7th can only happen if other do well or better than expected.

I like Romy and he's a hitter who can contribute in a good batting order... but I never want to see him batting clean-up again with a Refsnyder leadoff like in the playoffs. 

Breslow gets kudos for the depth he's built on the pitching staff... but he's slicing our soles on broken seashells in the shallows of an offense.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I mentioned last year that we had a good team, but a wild amount of variance.  I feel a lot better this year.  My wildcards:

• Catcher-We should be okay, but Narvaez is a sophomore, ended the year hurt, and Wong was bad.
• Chapman-Almost impossible for him to be as good, and is 38.  Whitlock is one of my favorite players, but I am not sure he is a closer.
• Mayer just a little.  He should be good, and even if he is just mediocre, we have IKF.  But he can't bomb completely either.  I like IKF a lot in his UIF role, but less so as a FT starter.

We analyze our team to death, so those wild variances jump out at us all.

I do think that other teams, including the Jays, Yanks, O's & Tigers have as many or more wild variances being discusses on their fan sites.

I'm not sure how comforting that is, but one plus I see about the Sox within this context is our depth. If a few of the variances head south, I think we are better positioned to handle it than other top AL teams.

I'll stack our 6-7-8-9 SP'ers up against any other team's. The Kiner-Falefa signing looks 100 times better after the Durbin trade. He seems to be a way better option than DHam/Sogard/Eaton- all by himself. I think Wong will do somewhere between 2024 and 2025, so we'll be fine at catcher depth. (Contreras can catch, too.) We finally have a 1Bman, so Casas is now viewed as "depth" (or DH.) Romy and Monasterio are fine depth pieces and we now have better options at AAA than we did just a few weeks ago: Rodgers, Seigler, Thaiss/Gasper & Cheng joining Campbell, Romero, Ward & Hickey.

At the risk of repeating myself, we missed out on adding one more highest quality player, but the rest or the 26, 40 and beyond look very balanced, deep and promising.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like Romy and he's a hitter who can contribute in a good batting order... but I never want to see him batting clean-up again with a Refsnyder leadoff like in the playoffs. 

Breslow gets kudos for the depth he's built on the pitching staff... but he's slicing our soles on broken seashells in the shallows of an offense.

Why wouldn't you want a top 5 batter in MLB batting higher up in the order?

(No, not 4th, but maybe 2nd or 3rd.)

Only 4 batters had a higher OPS and more PAs vs LHPs than Romy  (.978) in 2025. It was likely not a fluke, as he hit over .850 in 2024.

2024-2025 v LHPs: (250+ PAs)

1.259 Judge

.994 KMarte

.986 Ramirez

.951 Vladdy

.949 Refsnyder

.933 Schwarber

.931 Romy

Vs LHPs, I'd be fine with this...

1. L Anthony

2. R Romy

3. R Contreras (Maybe Durbin?)

4. L Abreu (Maybe Contreras?)

5. R Story (Abreu?)

6. R Durbin (Story?)

7. L Duran

8. R Narvaez

9. R Rafaela

[Nick]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We analyze our team to death, so those wild variances jump out at us all.

I do think that other teams, including the Jays, Yanks, O's & Tigers have as many or more wild variances being discusses on their fan sites.

I'm not sure how comforting that is, but one plus I see about the Sox within this context is our depth. If a few of the variances head south, I think we are better positioned to handle it than other top AL teams.

I'll stack our 6-7-8-9 SP'ers up against any other team's. The Kiner-Falefa signing looks 100 times better after the Durbin trade. He seems to be a way better option than DHam/Sogard/Eaton- all by himself. I think Wong will do somewhere between 2024 and 2025, so we'll be fine at catcher depth. (Contreras can catch, too.) We finally have a 1Bman, so Casas is now viewed as "depth" (or DH.) Romy and Monasterio are fine depth pieces and we now have better options at AAA than we did just a few weeks ago: Rodgers, Seigler, Thaiss/Gasper & Cheng joining Campbell, Romero, Ward & Hickey.

At the risk of repeating myself, we missed out on adding one more highest quality player, but the rest or the 26, 40 and beyond look very balanced, deep and promising.

I will have to go with Kimmi's approach this year.

The goal simply is to get into the playoffs.

We'll then roll the dice and hope our starting pitching will get us to the World Series.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Nick said:

I will have to go with Kimmi's approach.

The goal simply is to get into the playoffs.

We'll then roll the dice and hope our starting pitching will get us to the World Series.

Hard to argue with this general approach.

Assuming we can start Crochet, Suarez & Gray games 1-2-3 of every playoff series, I'd like our chances.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Assuming we can start Crochet, Suarez & Gray games 1-2-3 of every playoff series, I'd like our chances.

But in a pitchers' duel deep into October will you like our chances better to hope for three hits to score the winning run or one swing by a subsidized DH like Mike Trout, who may be available by August? 

Sorry... just preparing for all scenarios. And now, for the outrage...

[notin]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It is so painful to see story in the lineup in the top 4!  

Only because he is right-handed and Cora has a preference for alternating bats.  
 

The World Series champion Dodgers primarily used Teoscar Hernandez (25 HRs .738 OPS) as their cleanup hitter last year.  Is that any better than Story (25 HRs .741 OPS)?

[notin]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But in a pitchers' duel deep into October will you like our chances better to hope for three hits to score the winning run or one swing by a subsidized DH like Mike Trout, who may be available by August? 

Sorry... just preparing for all scenarios. And now, for the outrage...

Last year, Trout was Trevor Story with more walks.  And given he is owed $148mill from 2027 thru 2030, I’m sure the Angels would love to move him, even for Yoshida.

But does Trout want to move from the only team he’s ever played for?  As a 10-5 player, any trade requires his approval…

[moonslav59]

We hear a lot about our targeted increased focus on pitching, from the lowest levels of the minors to the top of the rotation at the big league level, and no doubt, that's for real, but we also have heard about not moving enough resources, both financial and via trade capital towards our everyday roster- from the top to the bottom of the system. It's hard to disagree, and I am also highly skeptical of this winter's approach that left us one big bat short of even their own stated goal, let alone most of ours. (I wanted two big bats and 1 big arm, and IMP we got 2 big arms and one 3/4 big bat in Contreras.)

There is some context to be added. Having a weaker everyday roster on the farm is not ideal, but when you look at the ages and years of team control of our top 15-18 MLB or MLB ready/near ready players, it's easier to feel a little more secure about the here and now and the near & extended future.

The OF: I think most baseball people see our OF as one of the best in MLB. We have 4 starting OF'ers that project to be top 5 on the team in fWAR: 3.5 Anthony. 3.2 Rafaela & 2.4 Abreu & Duran. It remains to be seen how K Campbell looks in LF, but he rates to be a more-than-decent #5 OF'er and is a RHB. I know many never want to see Masa in LF, again, but he does offer some emergency depth. Now, the best part: the years of control- 9 yrs Anthony, 6 Rafaela, 4 Abreu & 3 Duran. KC has 9 years, too!

Catcher: Narvaez was a rookie and has already shown he is more than fine on defense. His hit tool still needs to be proven, but he got off to a very nice start. He had a decent minor league OBP and about 20 HR/650 PA pop. He's 26 and can still improve. Wong has been up and down, but was playing hurt in 2025. Narvaez has 5 years of control, and Wong has 3. Again, no need for farm infusion for 3 more years.

The Infield: Here is where we may need help and was where many of us hoped we'd add some thump to the line-up, this winter, but we did add much better depth and improved the overall defense. Kiner-Falefa gives us great defensive depth at all non 1B infield slots. Durbin looks plus at 3B and 2B, and Mayer looks fine at 2B or 3B. Rodgers & Monasterio were a nice depth adds, too. Contreras at 1B offers us the stability we have been seeking there for many years. He looked okay on defense in 2025- his first season at 1B. While he's getting older, he could be better on D in 2026. The years of control are also pretty high, except for the one year from I K-F. Story & Contreras have 2 years with an option afterwards. Story may be at 2B by next season.  All the others have 4+ years.

So, basically every position is locked up for 3 years. We cans till improve on one of two over the next few years, but we could get by with next to zero farm infusion on the everyday side of the 26 and 40 man rosters.

The DH has 2 years of Yoshida, but 3 years of Casas & Romy and 9 years of Campbell. We could also use Duran (3 yrs) at DH.

The minor league depth is not all that exciting, some are far away from the majors:

C: Thaiss/Seigler/Delay (Jh Garcia, Guzman/Heyman/Primera/J Rod/G Rod)

1B: Hickey, Llyod (Brannon. Ogando)

2B: Rodgers, McDonogh (Godbout, Ferguson, White)

3B: Romero, Capra (Alcanatar, Nunez)

SS: Cheng, Sogard (Arias, Soto, Ramos)

OF: Campbell, Ward, Eaton, Frazier/Sykes (Gonzales, YRod, Taylor, Azocar, M Martin,  Rivas, Jackson, Silverio, Bleis, Castro, Fermin)

 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But in a pitchers' duel deep into October will you like our chances better to hope for three hits to score the winning run or one swing by a subsidized DH like Mike Trout, who may be available by August? 

Sorry... just preparing for all scenarios. And now, for the outrage...

I fully recognize the hole we left wide open, this winter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Last year, Trout was Trevor Story with more walks.  And given he is owed $148mill from 2027 thru 2030, I’m sure the Angels would love to move him, even for Yoshida.

But does Trout want to move from the only team he’s ever played for?  As a 10-5 player, any trade requires his approval…

Dunno, but most ultra competitive athletes -- especially guys set for life who've already achieved every individual goal possible -- always seem to crave one last chance to win a ring.

Notice I italicized "like" Mike Trout. There are always bats looking for homes. I intentionally didn't mention Castellanos all week, even though an obvious change-of-scenery guy who could do damage in a place like Fenway by mistake.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Dunno, but most ultra competitive athletes -- especially guys set for life who've already achieved every individual goal possible -- always seem to crave one last chance to win a ring.

Notice I italicized "like" Mike Trout. There are always bats looking for homes. I intentionally didn't mention Castellanos all week, even though an obvious change-of-scenery guy who could do damage in a place like Fenway by mistake.

Castellanos had the huge advantage of being available at minimum wage wuth Philly on the hook for the rest of his money.  Because of this, someone might give him a shot. But he was part of a deep lineup lineup in a hitters’ park on a perennial contender and still his 88% in sweet spot only translated to a 18% in exit velocity.  Given his complete lack of defensive ability, the only beneficial change of scenery Nick Castellanos might benefit from is to a Men’s Beer League Softball team.

And, yes, his average exit velocity last year was lower than Yoshida’s..

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Only because he is right-handed and Cora has a preference for alternating bats.  

Inserting a RHB like Romy or Durbin into the top 4 could solve this problem, but the issue is having 2 RHBs in the top 4 per Cora's wishes vs RHPs, too. If he could live with just 1, and have a RHB up 5th, the issue could also be solved. (Story has historically, pretty even splits.)

Numbers vs RHPs in 2025: ('24-'25)

.903 Anthony L

.852 Duran L (.882)

.808 Abreu L (.817) These 3 should be in the top 4 v RH'd SP'ers.

.797 Eaton L

.767 Contreras R (.794) Maybe the only RHB deserving of top 4.

.743 Story R (.751) .751 is not horrible but not good for top 4.

.739 Mayer L

.732 Masa L (.796) Maybe he could earn a top 4 slot.

.723 Narvaez R

.722 Durbin R

.720 Rafaela R (.703)

.718 Romy R (.651)

.658 Campbell R

.477 Casas L (.693) If he ever comes around, he could be a top 4 bat vs RHPs by mid-season.

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Castellanos had the huge advantage of being available at minimum wage wuth Philly on the hook for the rest of his money.  Because of this, someone might give him a shot. But he was part of a deep lineup lineup in a hitters’ park on a perennial contender and still his 88% in sweet spot only translated to a 18% in exit velocity.  Given his complete lack of defensive ability, the only beneficial change of scenery Nick Castellanos might benefit from is to a Men’s Beer League Softball team…

He just signed a MLB deal with SDP at min wage.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He just signed a MLB deal with SDP at min wage.

That's what I mean. At that "risk," a guy riding the pine as an occasional righty DH or pinch-hitter is worth it. And if he brings a beer into the dugout and this time actually opens it, send him packing. Or share it..

And hopefully Durbin's contact skills will help change the culture in situations like extra innings. OPS isn't the end-all be-all stat for scoring the Ghost Runner because drawing a walk with 1B open can actually hurt by setting up the D for a force out or worse, a DP. Plus, while the longball is desired, guys trying too hard for it and whiffing defeats the purpose of moving the ectoplasmic man around the bases.

The Sox were 8-12 in extras last year. If they just flipped those numbers, they were right in the mix for the division crown.

[moonslav59]

I'm glad Castellanos is playing elsewhere.

[notin]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He just signed a MLB deal with SDP at min wage.

Not surprising.  Now if he lasts all year I might be surprised…

[Nick]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hard to argue with this general approach.

Assuming we can start Crochet, Suarez & Gray games 1-2-3 of every playoff series, I'd like our chances.

Moon, I'm done with 'hoping' for Big Bats or 2nd Ace type of free agent signings. Just trust Brez and Company to keep developing young talent so we have some trade chips to upgrade the team. 

We ain't never signing Schwarber type. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Moon, I'm done with 'hoping' for Big Bats or 2nd Ace type of free agent signings. Just trust Brez and Company to keep developing young talent so we have some trade chips to upgrade the team. 

We ain't never signing Schwarber type. 

No need for a 2nd ace.

Just a big bat, and yes, it's not coming.

[moonslav59]

The trading season is all but over, but here is one last gasp...

Story & Crawford for Sean Murphy

Mayer & Tolle for KMarte and Comp Rd A pick

Arias, Duran & Witherspoon for Neto

______________________________

1. L Antony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Contreras 1B

4. R Neto SS

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Murphy DH/C- L Casas DH

7. R Durbin 3B

8. R Narvaez/ L Masa DH

9. R Rafaela CF