A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

True nuff, but you thought getting rid of Hicks was a dream, too.

Trading for Robbie Ray one-on-one might work. (We could add Mullins or maybe someone as high as Eyanson with Drohan thrown in. Of course, we can always add DHam... LOL)

[Hitch]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So this signing puts us over the $250M mark and maybe $10M below the next tax line.

Paredes just signed for under $10M, so I'm gonna keep hoping against hope...

We'll trade money in the deal, too, which can be used on the pen.

[Old Red]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True nuff, but you thought getting rid of Hicks was a dream, too.

Trading for Robbie Ray one-on-one might work. (We could add Mullins or maybe someone as high as Eyanson with Drohan thrown in. Of course, we can always add DHam... LOL)

I’ve been shocked twice this offseason already. Getting rid of Hicks, and signing a SP to a 5 yr contract.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ve been shocked twice this offseason already. Getting rid of Hicks, and signing a SP to a 5 yr contract.

The team has moved away from several long term philosophies under Brez.

1. Making pitching the top priority from the top to the bottom of the system.

2. Extending young promising players before they reach free agency, and even before arbs.

3. Signing a pitcher to a long term contract. (The last 2 longer deals were Story and Masa.)

4. Making the one and done contracts higher than $10M. (Breggie, Buehler, Chapman...)

Some that may need to go/change:

1. No Trade Clauses

2. Trade Deadline big deal reluctance

3. Doing whatever it takes to get that "one guy" you really want

4. A GM who is poor at communication

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

We'll trade money in the deal, too, which can be used on the pen.

I'm not sure we'll add much more money to the budget. If we add a 2B/3Bman who makes more money than we send away, I think we'll use our SP'er depth to fill out the pen.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

We were shafted, or shafted ourselves?🤔

self-inflicted. 

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

self-inflicted. 

Bingo!

[moonslav59]

Self flagellation

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

2. Trade Deadline big deal reluctance

3. Doing whatever it takes to get that "one guy" you really want

Aren't those kind of opposites?  Right now, a lot of the criticism is that Breslow refuses to go all-in on a particular player.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Aren't those kind of opposites?  Right now, a lot of the criticism is that Breslow refuses to go all-in on a particular player.

I'd say maybe they can be combined: he wont get the guy he wants most in winter or at the deadline.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say maybe they can be combined: he wont get the guy he wants most in winter or at the deadline.

If it's a pitcher, he'll get 'em. 💯

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If it's a pitcher, he'll get 'em. 💯

He did trade 5 pitchers (w no everyday players) for Contreras & O'Neill.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say maybe they can be combined: he wont get the guy he wants most in winter or at the deadline.

Breslow's so erudite that, while true contenders view the summer trading period as a lifeline, he can't help but interpret it literally -- as an actual deadline.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If it's a pitcher, he'll get 'em. 💯

captain crunch berries, oops all berries pitchers

[drewski6]

40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow's so erudite that, while true contenders view the summer trading period as a lifeline, he can't help but interpret it literally -- as an actual deadline.

I would say hes more crudite than erudite because hes stiffer than a raw carrot in a veggie tray

[harmony]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True nuff, but you thought getting rid of Hicks was a dream, too.

Trading for Robbie Ray one-on-one might work. (We could add Mullins or maybe someone as high as Eyanson with Drohan thrown in. Of course, we can always add DHam... LOL)

The San Francisco Giants are highly unlikely to trade their No. 2 starter in Robbie Ray for Masataka Yoshida even if the Red Sox tossed in spare change.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, harmony said:

The San Francisco Giants are highly unlikely to trade their No. 2 starter in Robbie Ray for Masataka Yoshida even if the Red Sox tossed in spare change.

Our #1 DH for a #3 SP!

LOL

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

The San Francisco Giants are highly unlikely to trade their No. 2 starter in Robbie Ray for Masataka Yoshida even if the Red Sox tossed in spare change.

Not happening whatsoever.  Aside from Ray being twice as valuable as Masa, I assume either Devers or Eldridge will be SF's DH this year.

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The team has moved away from several long term philosophies under Brez.

1. Making pitching the top priority from the top to the bottom of the system.

2. Extending young promising players before they reach free agency, and even before arbs.

3. Signing a pitcher to a long term contract. (The last 2 longer deals were Story and Masa.)

4. Making the one and done contracts higher than $10M. (Breggie, Buehler, Chapman...)

Some that may need to go/change:

1. No Trade Clauses

2. Trade Deadline big deal reluctance

3. Doing whatever it takes to get that "one guy" you really want

4. A GM who is poor at communication

I think another shift has been an emphasis placed on defense.
 

Hang’em Chaim did not seem to care about leaky defense. 
bres-slow seems determined to not give the opponent extra outs! 
 

as bres-slow continues to accumulate ground ball pitchers, having above average defenders with exceptional range becomes super important 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think another shift has been an emphasis placed on defense.
 

Hang’em Chaim did not seem to care about leaky defense. 
bres-slow seems determined to not give the opponent extra outs! 
 

as bres-slow continues to accumulate ground ball pitchers, having above average defenders with exceptional range becomes super important 

1. Moving Devers off 3B.

2. Signing I K F

3. ______?

Not sure it's a trend yet, but maybe....

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has the Sox projected as the 8th best team in MLB (4th best in AL.) That 0.2 for IKF helped us jump the O's.

We are ranked 17th on offense and 1st in pitching.

Sounds about right, to me.

[Duran Is The Man]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fangraphs has the Sox projected as the 8th best team in MLB (4th best in AL.) That 0.2 for IKF helped us jump the O's.

We are ranked 17th on offense and 1st in pitching.

Sounds about right, to me.

yep. and i still think that unless Mayer and/or Anthony have a breakout year, they are really going to struggle to score runs. 

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Fangraphs has the Sox projected as the 8th best team in MLB (4th best in AL.) That 0.2 for IKF helped us jump the O's.

We are ranked 17th on offense and 1st in pitching.

Sounds about right, to me.

He'll be a part time player and the defensive metrics will skew him to be like a 1.5 fWAR guy. 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yep. and i still think that unless Mayer and/or Anthony have a breakout year, they are really going to struggle to score runs. 

Just the extra 300 PAs from Anthony could help a lot, even if he hits the same as '25. If Mayer can play FT and hit .720 in his first full season, that will be helpful. The more IKF plays the worse the offense will be- but better the D.

There is no reason to think the 4 OF'ers (Duran at DH) won't do better than 2025 as a whole.

Narvaez & Wong are hard to project.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He'll be a part time player and the defensive metrics will skew him to be like a 1.5 fWAR guy. 

I did think the o.2 projection was very low.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Just the extra 300 PAs from Anthony could help a lot, even if he hits the same as '25. If Mayer can play FT and hit .720 in his first full season, that will be helpful. The more IKF plays the worse the offense will be- but better the D.

There is no reason to think the 4 OF'ers (Duran at DH) won't do better than 2025 as a whole.

Narvaez & Wong are hard to project.

We also can't project improvements from half the roster over '25. Relying on that has always been a little foolish. I know right now we tend to get a little more hopeful about the Sox and overestimate their chances, which causes people to crash out around Memorial Day when they aren't quite what we expected. 

Overall, I think they'll be about where they were last year. Great pitching, but a step backwards producing runs.

88-90 wins

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yep. and i still think that unless Mayer and/or Anthony have a breakout year, they are really going to struggle to score runs. 

Most fans and media have ignored the Anthony in the room... but it's risky to assume he'll be Ted Williams just because he looks like him.

We all agree Roman Anthony has talent. Few ballplayers in the world can hit a 500-foot grand slam like he did in Worcester or turn around a fastball for a homer off the NL's unanimous Cy Young winner.

But what if he doesn't improve this year? There is zero protection in the line-up around him. Willson Contreras has never hit 25 home runs in a season in his career.

Expectations can weigh heavily on a 22-year old. The Red Sox desperately need him to be the big bopper -- but at what cost? We all expect Anthony to be Boston's best, but here's some perspective: last year there were 33 MLB hitters with at least 30 HRs. Twenty-seven of them had a lower strikeout rate than Anthony.

The only sluggers with a worse K-rate than Roman's 27.7% were Devers, Wood, Kurtz, Jazz, Greene and Suarez. That means that even the big whiffers like Raleigh, Schwarber, Ohtani and Judge made more contact...

 

[mvp 78]

The issue with Roman is his high GB rate (27th highest of guys > 200 AB's) matching Luis Rengifo. He has always hit the ball hard. He has always hit the ball into the ground. It really limits his ceiling. 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We also can't project improvements from half the roster over '25. Relying on that has always been a little foolish. I know right now we tend to get a little more hopeful about the Sox and overestimate their chances, which causes people to crash out around Memorial Day when they aren't quite what we expected. 

Agreed. Not all players improve as they near 26-29, and the one year players are even harder to project.

I think we can all agree Rafaela is too hard to project. Narvaez, Anthony and Mayer, too. The injury issue with Casas makes him a total guess.

One should probably expect regression from Story, and maybe fewer games played, too. (One good reason to add IKF.) Masa may have peaked out around .750-.775.

That's most of the everyday players on the roster. One could add Romy & DHam as hard to project, as well.

Only Duran (who has also been up and down,) Abreu (several minor injury issues over the years,) and Contreras (getting older) seem like they are easier to project.

I'm not saying the group as a whole will improve, but I do think there are no tangible reasons to "expect" the OF will decline. (Yes, I moved the goalposts by adding "expect.")

 

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Most fans and media have ignored the Anthony in the room... but it's risky to assume he'll be Ted Williams just because he looks like him.

We all agree Roman Anthony has talent. Few ballplayers in the world can hit a 500-foot grand slam like he did in Worcester or turn around a fastball for a homer off the NL's unanimous Cy Young winner.

But what if he doesn't improve this year? There is zero protection in the line-up around him. Willson Contreras has never hit 25 home runs in a season in his career.

Expectations can weigh heavily on a 22-year old. The Red Sox desperately need him to be the big bopper -- but at what cost? We all expect Anthony to be Boston's best, but here's some perspective: last year there were 33 MLB hitters with at least 30 HRs. Twenty-seven of them had a lower strikeout rate than Anthony.

The only sluggers with a worse K-rate than Roman's 27.7% were Devers, Wood, Kurtz, Jazz, Greene and Suarez. That means that even the big whiffers like Raleigh, Schwarber, Ohtani and Judge made more contact...

 

Good post, as always. The thing is, every team has players where it can be asked, "What if ___?"

I'm not expecting a better offense than 2025. We lost too much to think that. I don't even expect the same runs scored or ranking on offense. I'm thinking 14-17th seems about right, as is. There is a pretty high ceiling, and I think the ceiling goes higher than #14 by more than the floor does from #17.

Adding Paredes, Shaw or Hoerner would get us closer to even with 2025, which by the way, was not all that great, when adjusted for park factors.