A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

I don't know if Duran is easy to project either. 

'23 828 OPS, 122 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

'24 834 OPS, 131 wRC+, 6.8 fWAR (additional games played and defensive turnaround)

'25 774 OPS, 111 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR (offense went the wrong direction)

Does the offense get better? Stay like '25? I think the 2.4 fWAR that FanGraphs projects is light, but it's hard to say where he's deriving it from. If the defense takes a step back and the offense stays the same, he has way less value. His sprint speed DECREASED last season. 😶

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good post, as always. The thing is, every team has players where it can be asked, "What if ___?"

I'm not expecting a better offense than 2025. We lost too much to think that. I don't even expect the same runs scored or ranking on offense. I'm thinking 14-17th seems about right, as is. There is a pretty high ceiling, and I think the ceiling goes higher than #14 by more than the floor does from #17.

Adding Paredes, Shaw or Hoerner would get us closer to even with 2025, which by the way, was not all that great, when adjusted for park factors.

Adding some of the guys you mentioned would improve the infield, but you would have to give up something to get them, so it wouldn’t necessarily improve the offense.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good post, as always. The thing is, every team has players where it can be asked, "What if ___?"

I'm not expecting a better offense than 2025. We lost too much to think that. I don't even expect the same runs scored or ranking on offense. I'm thinking 14-17th seems about right, as is. There is a pretty high ceiling, and I think the ceiling goes higher than #14 by more than the floor does from #17.

Adding Paredes, Shaw or Hoerner would get us closer to even with 2025, which by the way, was not all that great, when adjusted for park factors.

I think if most everyone does about the same and they don't add anyone, the players to watch for improvement would be Mayer and Abreu (still only turning 27 this year). Marcelo hits the ball hard, but like Roman he's also had some GB% issues. He has had better FB rates than he showed in MLB last year, so maybe he can get back to that. Abreu cut his K% down a little last season. He's still barreling the ball, but his hard hit rate dropped. If he can get that hard hit rate back up, he should put up bigger numbers. 

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I think if most everyone does about the same and they don't add anyone, the players to watch for improvement would be Mayer and Abreu (still only turning 27 this year). Marcelo hits the ball hard, but like Roman he's also had some GB% issues. He has had better FB rates than he showed in MLB last year, so maybe he can get back to that. Abreu cut his K% down a little last season. He's still barreling the ball, but his hard hit rate dropped. If he can get that hard hit rate back up, he should put up bigger numbers. 

Health is big for Story,and Mayer, and if Abreu can hit LHP will be big for him.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know if Duran is easy to project either. 

'23 828 OPS, 122 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

'24 834 OPS, 131 wRC+, 6.8 fWAR (additional games played and defensive turnaround)

'25 774 OPS, 111 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR (offense went the wrong direction)

Does the offense get better? Stay like '25? I think the 2.4 fWAR that FanGraphs projects is light, but it's hard to say where he's deriving it from. If the defense takes a step back and the offense stays the same, he has way less value. His sprint speed DECREASED last season. 😶

Yes, I mentioned him being up and down. I caught a lot of hell for suggesting he might be in decline. I walked that back, but I still worry & wonder.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Adding some of the guys you mentioned would improve the infield, but you would have to give up something to get them, so it wouldn’t necessarily improve the offense.

Of course. Abreu for Paredes is kinda sideways, but does swap a LHB for a RHB, for whatever that adds.

Trading Bello & Phillips for Shaw would help the offense. Crawford & DHam for Hoerner, too.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Health is big for Story,and Mayer, and if Abreu can hit LHP will be big for him.

676 OPS is a step in the right direction. Only 1 HR in 61 AB's though. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I mentioned him being up and down. I caught a lot of hell for suggesting he might be in decline. I walked that back, but I still worry & wonder.

Duran will be 30 this year. Never back down. Stick to your guns when you have a good point. He got slower. He hit worse last year. He could be a one year wonder. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Health is big for Story,and Mayer, and if Abreu can hit LHP will be big for him.

Abreu has improved vs LHPs but is still not "good enough." He did pass Duran v L, but it's just one season.

I'm most worried about Mayer vs LHPs, but I'm glad we have Romy for that. IKF at .650 could be a major improvement over Mayer, if he's at .550 v L.

My next "worry" vs LHPs is Duran not Abreu. I might even put Masa above Abreu,

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran will be 30 this year. Never back down. Stick to your guns when you have a good point. He got slower. He hit worse last year. He could be a one year wonder. 

He could have been a one year wonder, but a repeat of 2025 or somewhere between 2025 and 2024 or 2023 would be fine.

He can have a better year than 2025, but I don't expect way better.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Abreu has improved vs LHPs but is still not "good enough." He did pass Duran v L, but it's just one season.

I'm most worried about Mayer vs LHPs, but I'm glad we have Romy for that. IKF at .650 could be a major improvement over Mayer, if he's at .550 v L.

My next "worry" vs LHPs is Duran not Abreu. I might even put Masa above Abreu,

Romy just isn't a great platoon partner for Mayer at 3b. He hasn't played a bunch over there and what we've seen has been uninspiring. I guess that's where IKF comes into play? My guess is Mayer gets a longer leash vs LHP.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran will be 30 this year. Never back down. Stick to your guns when you have a good point. He got slower. He hit worse last year. He could be a one year wonder. 

As Duran gets older, and slower he will have a harder time tracking down those butterflies.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Romy just isn't a great platoon partner for Mayer at 3b. He hasn't played a bunch over there and what we've seen has been uninspiring. I guess that's where IKF comes into play? My guess is Mayer gets a longer leash vs LHP.

I think IKF might play 3B v L and Romy plays 2B v L as DHam sits. God, the thought of DHam starting 115 games at 2B is frightening.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

As Duran gets older, and slower he will have a harder time tracking down those butterflies.

Nope. He's be watching Anthony make those catches, while sitting on the bench as the DH.

(Now, that IS an assumption.)

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Nope. He's be watching Anthony make those catches, while sitting on the bench as the DH.

(Now, that IS an assumption.)

Possibly, but I’ll believe it when it actually happens. Wait, and see. Wait, and see.

[Larry Cook]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

1. Moving Devers off 3B.

2. Signing I K F

3. ______?

Not sure it's a trend yet, but maybe....

3.) signing gold glover Brendan Rogers 

4.) getting Contreras to replace Casas at 1st base. 
 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Possibly, but I’ll believe it when it actually happens. Wait, and see. Wait, and see.

Who is the worst defensive OF'er of the 4?

Do you think they DH Anthony over Duran? Share the duty?

It's hard to know what Cora will do, I agree, but I'd DH Duran every game an OF'er does not need a rest.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

3.) signing gold glover Brendan Rogers 

4.) getting Contreras to replace Casas at 1st base. 
 

Nice. Correctomundo!

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think IKF might play 3B v L and Romy plays 2B v L as DHam sits. God, the thought of DHam starting 115 games at 2B is frightening.

I don't know if they should have Romy, DHam and IKF on the roster together. That's a lot of redundancy. What's the point of having Hamilton? At least Eaton can IF/OF.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Who is the worst defensive OF'er of the 4?

Do you think they DH Anthony over Duran? Share the duty?

It's hard to know what Cora will do, I agree, but I'd DH Duran every game an OF'er does not need a rest.

They think Roman is good enough to play all three positions at Fenway if he has to. Duran is the worst of the 4 to them. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They think Roman is good enough to play all three positions at Fenway if he has to. Duran is the worst of the 4 to them. 

So, Duran should DH, right?

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts Sandoval, DHam & Phillips for Hoerner.

The 1 year of Sandoval helps balance the money Hoerner gets paid. Giving up Phillips might bite us in the ass, later, but Hoerner is the real deal.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They think Roman is good enough to play all three positions at Fenway if he has to. Duran is the worst of the 4 to them. 

Yes Duran is the worst of the 4 OF, but you never know what Cora will do.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV accepts Sandoval, DHam & Phillips for Hoerner.

The 1 year of Sandoval helps balance the money Hoerner gets paid. Giving up Phillips might bite us in the ass, later, but Hoerner is the real deal.

BTV accepts, but I doubt very much the Cubs would. Big NO.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Duran should DH, right?

If Duran is DH'ing, Masa (also GB heavy LHB) has no place on this team.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Duran is DH'ing, Masa (also GB heavy LHB) has no place on this team.

Masa is the conundrum. I don’t know if he is going to be on the opening day roster, but if he is I don’t see him just being a backup DH at $18M.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Duran is DH'ing, Masa (also GB heavy LHB) has no place on this team.

Yup, but who is better at DH? Duran or Masa?

If Duran plays OF, what OF sits? (Please don't say Rafaela at 2B.)

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

BTV accepts, but I doubt very much the Cubs would. Big NO.

They'd have to really like Phillips, which could be possible.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They'd have to really like Phillips, which could be possible.

The Cubs are said to be interested in Zac Galleon, and don’t want a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in two years. The Red Sox would do that. The Cubs also want a OF. Want to add Duran, or Abreu? Once again a Big NO.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, but who is better at DH? Duran or Masa?

If Duran plays OF, what OF sits? (Please don't say Rafaela at 2B.)

Why do you worry so much about that stuff? I just let it play out. Like I said before I don’t care what happens to Abreu, or Duran , or Masa for that matter. The opening day lineup will be what it is.