A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The slash is an underscore, and it’s on the CUBS side of the equation. 
 

that makes more sense, but it’s worded like Shaw plus (some other guy) for these three outfielders.

obviously an absurd fantasy trade, but adding Crow-Armstrong would make it equal (ish) value and would honestly give me pause.

i probably still say no.

The Cubs aren’t hurting for outfielders.  They already unloaded one (Owen Caissie) for pitching earlier this off-season.

The big problem with trying to deal with the Cubs here is a Matt Shaw-for-Dalton Rushing trade does make sense for both sides and leaves Boston out in the cold…

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

The first one is a big overpay.  IMHO, Abreu is a better player than Rooker.

On the 2nd, the Cubs will want a top-100-ish prospect.

Statistically….. and specifically on the Red Sox Rooker is a much better player than Abreu. Maybe not defensively but the add on offense with the other players around him would offset Anthony playing RF. 

on the cubs deal isn’t that what Romero is? Top100ish?? Maybe you could switch Romero for Bennett?? 

I think this makes us our best team 2026. It leaves farm system pitching fairly barren. But Beta Breslow is actually really good at pitching development. I can give a compliment when earned. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe they sign Justin Wilson? Nothing else really out there via FA. 

I've heard no talk on that... strange.

[moonslav59]

How about Arias, Witherspoon & DHam for Wynn?

[moonslav59]

The Sox probably have one pitcher HOU thinks is one minor tweak away from a Cy Young Award. (It's probably not Bello.)

They clearly need an OF'er. Word is they really like Abreu- the guy they gave up for Vazquez.

[moonslav59]

News out of STL: Bloom is seeking an OF'er!

Too bad we let Franchy go- maybe we could have gotten Wynn for him!

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Statistically….. and specifically on the Red Sox Rooker is a much better player than Abreu. Maybe not defensively but the add on offense with the other players around him would offset Anthony playing RF. 

on the cubs deal isn’t that what Romero is? Top100ish?? Maybe you could switch Romero for Bennett?? 

I think this makes us our best team 2026. It leaves farm system pitching fairly barren. But Beta Breslow is actually really good at pitching development. I can give a compliment when earned. 

In two of the past three years, Rooker had a 2.0 and 2.3 bWAR.  He had a 5.6 squeezed in between, but with a .362 BABIP.  I can't tell which Rooker to expect, but I think it would be the 2023/25 version.  Last year, Abreu was the better player, 5 years younger, and will be materially cheaper.

Not a fan of Romero.  Perhaps someone else will rate him higher.  I like Bennett, but I think the Cubs will want someone ranked closer to what Shaw was ranked.

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

In two of the past three years, Rooker had a 2.0 and 2.3 bWAR.  He had a 5.6 squeezed in between, but with a .362 BABIP.  I can't tell which Rooker to expect, but I think it would be the 2023/25 version.  Last year, Abreu was the better player, 5 years younger, and will be materially cheaper.

Not a fan of Romero.  Perhaps someone else will rate him higher.  I like Bennett, but I think the Cubs will want someone ranked closer to what Shaw was ranked.

BTV suggests Tolle for Shaw or Witherspoon for Hoerner are fair trades.  No idea what the Cubs think.

Those both do seem pretty fair to me…

[moonslav59]

Wilyer is at that perfect age (soon to be 27) and experience level (2+ years in MLB) to bust out.

That's about the time when platooned players get a chance to show they can play FT, and it appears like Cora wants to give that a try. The results are unknown, but the guy has power. He has been hitting close to 28 HRs per 650, out of the gate, so I think 30+ is not unreasonable to think he might reach in 2026.

He's got to GG's already, and while I'm not fan of that award, it does show he's a good defender, and we all know how difficult Fenway's RF is. He has a good arm, too.

The .325 OBP is not great, but these days, it's not bad, either. He K's too much, but he's not the worst on the team, and a .791 OPS in his first 1,000 PAs in MLB is pretty damn good.

He's got upside and he's pre-arb. I think we gotta keep him, and maybe that's why we haven't seen a Paredes trade, yet. Four years from age 27 to 30.

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV suggests Tolle for Shaw or Witherspoon for Hoerner are fair trades.  No idea what the Cubs think.

Those both do seem pretty fair to me…

Yes, you gotta give to get. Tolle is ML ready or close enough. The Cubs are in win now mode, so maybe Witherspoon is too far away and too speculative for their liking, but for a 1 and done player, I do think Witherspoon is fair. I'm not sure what they think of Crawford, but he's MLB ready. BTV calls it a minor overpay by the Sox: Crawford for Hoerner.

Bello has much higher value on BTV (27 to 18,) so how about this:

Bello (27) for Hoerner (18) + a catcher- Carson Kelly (8.5 but another one year guy) or Miguel Amaya (8.4 but 4 years.)

(The Cubs have Ballesteros, who can catch, too, but he might be their DH if Suzuki isn't, or he could play 1B, but they have Busch there.)

I hate giving up that much for a 1 year player, but Hoerner is the real deal, and maybe we extend him. Getting a 4 year catcher might help soften the blow, if Hoener bolts.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I hate giving up that much for a 1 year player, but Hoerner is the real deal, and maybe we extend him.

I think we could get more for Bello.  But if we could reach an understanding on an extension, ala Crochet, it would be hard to find a better fit that Hoerner.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think we could get more for Bello.  But if we could reach an understanding on an extension, ala Crochet, it would be hard to find a better fit that Hoerner.

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

How about these...

Abreu, Crawford & Wong for Paredes & Y Diaz

or

Abreu, Bello & Wong for Paredes, Diaz and King

or

Crawford, Sandoval, DHam for Hoerner & Amaya

or

Bello for Hoerner & Amaya

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB Channel just named Duran baseball's #1 best leftfielder... with Anthony 2nd and Bellinger 3rd.

Duran was also on one MLB Channel expert's list as the #5 best DH... which seems contradictory (if a ballplayer is tops at his position, why would he be taken off the field and only get to hit?).

Still, wouldn't a guy that highly regarded in two spots seem too valuable to trade?

Btw: Abreu was #10 for rightfielders. Rafaela, the other Gold Glover, didn't even make it for centerfield -- though Wyatt Langford, who played 45 games in CF last year, was rated #2 behind JRod.

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

MLB Channel just named Duran baseball's #1 best leftfielder... with Anthony 2nd and Bellinger 3rd.

Duran was also on one MLB Channel expert's list as the #5 best DH... which seems contradictory (if a ballplayer is tops at his position, why would he be taken off the field and only get to hit?).

Still, wouldn't a guy that highly regarded in two spots seem too valuable to trade?

Btw: Abreu was #10 for rightfielders. Rafaela, the other Gold Glover, didn't even make it for centerfield -- though Wyatt Langford, who played 45 games in CF last year, was rated #2 behind JRod.

I think at this point it makes more sense to trade a package of prospects and/or pitchers to acquire a player to fill in the IF hole.  The four outfielders can rotate the three positions with the DH position.  

Sure, this creates a headache with Yoshida, but we've been dealing with that regardless.  At some point they might have to make a decision with him but for now.....that's probably the easiest path to a good lineup. 

Adding someone like Paredes opposed to Shaw or Marte looks a lot better if you're not taking Duran out of the lineup. 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've heard no talk on that... strange.

Wilson wants a decent contract on a very good team or he's going to retire per reports. His options are limited.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

News out of STL: Bloom is seeking an OF'er!

Too bad we let Franchy go- maybe we could have gotten Wynn for him!

They want a RHB.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Adding someone like Paredes opposed to Shaw or Marte looks a lot better if you're not taking Duran out of the lineup. 

Someone has to come out of the lineup. You can only put 9 players on the field. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They want a RHB.

Rafaela is RH'd but not really a "bat."

KC's trade value is not high enough.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela is RH'd but not really a "bat."

KC's trade value is not high enough.

Breslow is at an impasse. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wilson wants a decent contract on a very good team or he's going to retire per reports. His options are limited.

Is he that conceited that he thinks he won't make a very good team worse?

Wilson hasn't been that valuable since he floated away from Tom Hanks.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow is at an impasse. 

The old 3rd option in the fork in the road. Where have I seen this before?🤔

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Someone has to come out of the lineup. You can only put 9 players on the field. 

Yeah, I know...It's Yoshida. 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow is at an impasse. 

He's going to make a move or two- one should be significant.

[moonslav59]

Assuming only Houck starts the season on the IL, this could be our opening day roster:

SP: Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Sandoval (IL?)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Crawford, Oviedo, Waton (Rule5) & Moran (no options)

C: Narvaez & Wong

1B: Contreras

2B: Romy & DHam

3B: Mayer & Eaton

SS: Story

LF: Anthony & Duran (DH)

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida 

AAA/AA on the 40:
Harrison, Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Drohan, Bennett, Kelly, Samaniego

Casas (IL?), K Campbell & Sogard

2 open slots on the 40, as of now. (Thaiss & Romero are possibilities, but I think we add 2 from outside the system: 3B/2B and RP.)

 

 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think at this point it makes more sense to trade a package of prospects and/or pitchers to acquire a player to fill in the IF hole.  The four outfielders can rotate the three positions with the DH position.  

Sure, this creates a headache with Yoshida, but we've been dealing with that regardless.  At some point they might have to make a decision with him but for now.....that's probably the easiest path to a good lineup. 

Adding someone like Paredes opposed to Shaw or Marte looks a lot better if you're not taking Duran out of the lineup. 

Its not really a headache to have an athletically limited, weak overall player (dragged down by lack of defense) who has utility (Yoshida isnt useless he works counts, controls the zone, makes contact) on your bench.  The headache is a) bench players usually provide acceptable coverage at a position/usually mutliple positions which Yoshida probably doesnt at present (I still think he should learn how to play an adequate first base to increase his utility as a bench player) and b) Yoshida is overpaid for htis role

BUT....depite not being an ideal bench player for those 2 reasons (not a lot of positional backup cuz Yoshida is almost a backup DH AND makes more than youd want from a bench player)....Despite not being an ideal bench player for those 2 reasons, Yoshida does provide hitting depth. Any injury to an OF, he becomes a DH and probably a close to average one vs one that cant hit at all....AND hes solid as a pinch hitter.  Imagine DHAM is up with the bases loaded in the 7th?  Yoshida coming in , knowing hes going to give you a legit at-bat.  DHAM is an automatic out and he may get some starts.  Ditto Mayer vs lefties.  If in the 8th , they bring in a lefty against Mayer in a close game, you have a second counter move with Yoshida (if  Romy already in the game)

[drewski6]

Its nice to be able to pull someone off your bench who you know will give you an at-bat and Yoshida will always give you an at-bat.  Hes not going to pop out on the first pitch or take 3 straight strikes looking.  Hes not going to swing at a slider 6 feet outta the zone.  

Problem is it would be better if he could play a serviceable/cusp corner OF/1b (so he gives at least a little positional coverage) and it would also be better if he made less ($18m is steep for a bat off the bench role)

[drewski6]

 

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

MLB Channel just named Duran baseball's #1 best leftfielder... with Anthony 2nd and Bellinger 3rd.

Duran was also on one MLB Channel expert's list as the #5 best DH... which seems contradictory (if a ballplayer is tops at his position, why would he be taken off the field and only get to hit?).

Still, wouldn't a guy that highly regarded in two spots seem too valuable to trade?

Btw: Abreu was #10 for rightfielders. Rafaela, the other Gold Glover, didn't even make it for centerfield -- though Wyatt Langford, who played 45 games in CF last year, was rated #2 behind JRod.

Rafaela will step forward, back or sideways at the plate this year.  Few are predicting a step forward, which would surely make him top 10....Some are predicting a step sideways which would make him a cusp top 10 (squeaks in , IMO)....Most (myself included) are predicting a step back at the plate and unfortunately a fourth outfielder/defensive sub on a great team (starter on a so/so team).

He doesnt have a lot of trade value (he has some) despite having like 6 yrs of control and theres a reason for that.  But hope is not lost, even a step sideways at the plate, lets say .720-.740 OPS, cements him as a close to average bat and with his D thats in my opinion a starting MLB CF'er no question.  But if the OPS falls to close to .700 or even dips below the danger line, hes going to lose his starter status and we wont have a logjam because he'll be a fourth outfielder.

[drewski6]

 

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah, I know...It's Yoshida. 

And other options too.  But I agree with you. Getting Isaac P while keeping Duran AND Abreu is a good thing, not a bad thing.  Yoshida will have value as a pinch hitter, plus there will be injuries and rest days.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He's going to make a move or two- one should be significant.

From your mouth to Breslows ears.