A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[FredLynn]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You didn't want him anyway.  Remember the .780?

He’s better than who we will end up with. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I think a RHB would be preferable, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends up being someone who hasn’t been mentioned.

Maybe someone like E Tovar on the Rockies or Royce Lewis?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

He’s better than who we will end up with. 

He's really a DH, though.

[moonslav59]

E Suarez would certainly have given us the RH Power bat we seek, but I'm not sure the rest of his portfolio fit us very well.

I wanted ES more a couple months ago, and I still think at that price he'd have been a nice get, but maybe we still get someone.

Hearing here in HOU that the Sox won't give Wilyer for Paredes and an add on. They suggest maybe B Abreu, but that's too much of a money add for JH to okay.

I still think Wilyer for Paredes and B King gives both teams what they need.

[moonslav59]

Teams may place players on the 60 Day IL once ST'ing begins. We will certainly be adding Houck and maybe Casas, too. That means we could have 2 more slots opening up.

The two openings we have now are generating some speculation.

[moonslav59]

Sox Players vs RHPs in 2025 (200+ PAs, unless noted):

.903 Anthony

.852 Duran

.808 Abreu

.797 Eaton (41)

.676 Contreras (w STL)

.743 Story

.739 Mayer (109)

.732 Yoshida (173)

.723 Narvaez

.720 Rafaela

.718 Romy (198)

.658 Campbell  (189)

.618 DHam (174)

.552 Sogard (69)

.503 Wong (142)

.447 Casas (100)

_________________________

Sox Players vs LHPs in 2025 (100+ PAs):

1.409 Casas (12)

.978 Romy

.863 Contreras (w STL)

.857 Sogard (35)

.770 Anthony (98)

,734 Story

.731 Narvaez

.679 Rafaela

,676 Abreu (68)

.675 Campbell (74)

.673 Eaton (49)

.600 Duran

.508 Mayer (27)

.488 Wong (46)

.358 DHam (20)

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Players vs RHPs in 2025 (200+ PAs, unless noted):

.903 Anthony

.852 Duran

.808 Abreu

.797 Eaton (41)

.676 Contreras (w STL)

.743 Story

.739 Mayer (109)

.732 Yoshida (173)

.723 Narvaez

.720 Rafaela

.718 Romy (198)

.658 Campbell  (189)

.618 DHam (174)

.552 Sogard (69)

.503 Wong (142)

.447 Casas (100)

_________________________

Sox Players vs LHPs in 2025 (100+ PAs):

1.409 Casas (12)

.978 Romy

.863 Contreras (w STL)

.857 Sogard (35)

.770 Anthony (98)

,734 Story

.731 Narvaez

.679 Rafaela

,676 Abreu (68)

.675 Campbell (74)

.673 Eaton (49)

.600 Duran

.508 Mayer (27)

.488 Wong (46)

.358 DHam (20)

Exhibit A of why Masa cant replace Duran, first of all.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Exhibit A of why Masa cant replace Duran, first of all.

Taking one year stats, no, but it's actually Duran taking Masa's DH slot.

I do think  Duran is better, but why switch from career OPS to 2025, only?

It's .780 to .762, and for what we get for Duran, that margin should easily be eclipsed.

[moonslav59]

I can't see HOU accepting this deal, but this is what BTV thinks he's worth:

Slaten

or

Soto

or

Oviedo + Valera

Oviedo + Bennett

Phillips + Wong

Campbell + Eyanson

I can see why Brez might be saying no to Abreu for IP.

[moonslav59]

Anyone do Duran for Matt Shaw?

BTV has em about even.

How about Duran, Bello & Masa +$8M out of $36M owed for Shaw and Suzuki?

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Taking one year stats, no, but it's actually Duran taking Masa's DH slot.

I do think  Duran is better, but why switch from career OPS to 2025, only?

It's .780 to .762, and for what we get for Duran, that margin should easily be eclipsed.

Because I can look at these two men and know that they are not interchangeable.  Masa's arms look like a normal person.  Duran looks like a gym rat.  I think that is what you are seeing in the 2025 OPS variance.  I think maybe when Masa was younger he was strong enough to drive the ball even without living in the gym but you just dont have to worry about it with Duran.

Time in gym > nerds

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Anyone do Duran for Matt Shaw?

BTV has em about even.

How about Duran, Bello & Masa +$8M out of $36M owed for Shaw and Suzuki?

1. No

2. No

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Anyone do Duran for Matt Shaw?

BTV has em about even.

How about Duran, Bello & Masa +$8M out of $36M owed for Shaw and Suzuki?

I would, Shaw has a lot more team control left, is a plus defender and I think he’s going to be a plus bat too.

Sox were in on Shaw in the draft and he was take one pick before them.

Thats ok, Kyle Teel did lead to Crochet

the second deal hell no.  I’m not giving up that much just to get Masa off the roster.  He has two years left just DFA him 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Because I can look at these two men and know that they are not interchangeable.  Masa's arms look like a normal person.  Duran looks like a gym rat.  I think that is what you are seeing in the 2025 OPS variance.  I think maybe when Masa was younger he was strong enough to drive the ball even without living in the gym but you just dont have to worry about it with Duran.

Time in gym > nerds

I like Duran more, too. Plus, his speed has value not shown in OPS.

I'd prefer Duran in the line-up but we need a 3B/2Bman more.

The gain made from DHam to whoever we get for Duran is much greater than the loss from Duran to Masa/Casas/Romy/Campbell at DH.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would, Shaw has a lot more team control left, is a plus defender and I think he’s going to be a plus bat too.

Sox were in on Shaw in the draft and he was take one pick before them.

Thats ok, Kyle Teel did lead to Crochet

the second deal hell no.  I’m not giving up that much just to get Masa off the roster.  He has two years left just DFA him 

Unlike Hicks, just play Masa out until a better DH option comes around. If Casas gets back to 100% and Masa is still hitting league average or below, just cut bait. If Casas and Masa are both hitting, maybe you are able to deal Masa and eat 50% of the contract. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Unlike Hicks, just play Masa out until a better DH option comes around. If Casas gets back to 100% and Masa is still hitting league average or below, just cut bait. If Casas and Masa are both hitting, maybe you are able to deal Masa and eat 50% of the contract. 

Me and you are completely on the same page with this

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Me and you are completely on the same page with this

Glad we found some common ground after you just wanted to be disagreeable yesterday. 😎

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Duran more, too. Plus, his speed has value not shown in OPS.

I'd prefer Duran in the line-up but we need a 3B/2Bman more.

The gain made from DHam to whoever we get for Duran is much greater than the loss from Duran to Masa/Casas/Romy/Campbell at DH.

I disagree that we need a 3b/2b more than we need someone who leads by example in the weight room.

Have you looked at Mayer and Story? Do you know what will help them stay healthy?

Have you ever been on a team and had to be accountable to someone like Duran? You dont want him texting you that ur being a [censored] and so you get ur butt up and you get to the gym

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Unlike Hicks, just play Masa out until a better DH option comes around. If Casas gets back to 100% and Masa is still hitting league average or below, just cut bait. If Casas and Masa are both hitting, maybe you are able to deal Masa and eat 50% of the contract. 

Are you benching Cedanne?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It still comes down to this: the offense isn't good enough. It's not good enough to win 90 games, it's not good enough to win four consecutive series in October, and it's not even as good as last year.

For OPS fans, Boston lost four of its top six batters from 2025: Devers, Refsnyder, Bregman and even Lowe. You can look it up. The Sox have added one bat: Contreras.

So unless you're UPGRADING the batting order, there really is no sensible reason to trade an outfielder -- when that quartet and Trevor Story are the best returning hitters based on '25 (nod to drewski).

 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Glad we found some common ground after you just wanted to be disagreeable yesterday. 😎

Well I don't agree with that at all. 🤣

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I disagree that we need a 3b/2b more than we need someone who leads by example in the weight room.

Have you looked at Mayer and Story? Do you know what will help them stay healthy?

Have you ever been on a team and had to be accountable to someone like Duran? You dont want him texting you that ur being a [censored] and so you get ur butt up and you get to the gym

A fine example he set when he got suspended for inappropriate comments on the field and missing games in TOR due to not being "entirely selfless."

I want Duran on the team. I don't want DHam playing a major role in 2026. There are ways to do both.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It still comes down to this: the offense isn't good enough. It's not good enough to win 90 games, it's not good enough to win four consecutive series in October, and it's not even as good as last year.

For OPS fans, Boston lost four of its top six batters from 2025: Devers, Refsnyder, Bregman and even Lowe. You can look it up. The Sox have added one bat: Contreras.

So unless you're UPGRADING the batting order, there really is no sensible reason to trade an outfielder -- when that quartet and Trevor Story are the best returning hitters based on '25 (nod to drewski).

 

Which is a better offense?

DH Duran

3B Mayer/Romy

2B DHam/Romy

or

DH Masa/Casas/Romy

3B Paredes/Shaw

2B Mayer/Romy

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A fine example he set when he got suspended for inappropriate comments on the field and missing games in TOR due to not being "entirely selfless."

I want Duran on the team. I don't want DHam playing a major role in 2026. There are ways to do both.

Cant disagree.  Like 5GG said, I dont think we can trade any of our four plus bats (duran, abreu, anthony, contreras) because I think you 8 capable starting pitchers and 15 capable hitters (I think we have more than 4 capable hitters, but not more than four "plus" hitters)

So Im just more against trading Duran than you are. But I do believe you that you like the guy even though you consider options that include trading him.  Theres a world I trade Duran, there are more worlds that you trade Duran.  Im just more hesitatnt to it than you.

But I see your points and they are reasonable.  Duran is not a perfect leader, I know that.  I do love a mental health rebound story. Greinke is one as well.  Also, I was captain trade duran 2 years ago and ive eaten my crow over there. Not here but in my text messages.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Which is a better offense?

DH Duran

3B Mayer/Romy

2B DHam/Romy

or

DH Masa/Casas/Romy

3B Paredes/Shaw

2B Mayer/Romy

CF Duran
DH *acquisition*
2b Cedanne

Was really hoping we could flip hicks for teoscar hernandez

Wonder if we could get my boy Brent Rooker

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It still comes down to this: the offense isn't good enough. It's not good enough to win 90 games, it's not good enough to win four consecutive series in October, and it's not even as good as last year.

For OPS fans, Boston lost four of its top six batters from 2025: Devers, Refsnyder, Bregman and even Lowe. You can look it up. The Sox have added one bat: Contreras.

So unless you're UPGRADING the batting order, there really is no sensible reason to trade an outfielder -- when that quartet and Trevor Story are the best returning hitters based on '25 (nod to drewski).

 

I mean one way of looking at it is by position. 

LF - Duran same as last year

CF- Rafaela same as last year

RF - Anthony a full year out of him this should be a plus

SS - Story same as last year

1B - Contreras this should be an improvement

C Narvaez/Wong should be about the same as last year. 

DH - will likely be a big downgrade, but it has the capacity to be better in 2026 than it was for the second half of last year. 

The fall off could come from what we do at 3B/2B.  

Some combination of Mayer/Romy could actually end up being  a plus at one of those positions.  Which leaves the other to who? David Hamilton?

The reality is, this team is one good IF move away from being very very very good. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

CF Duran
DH *acquisition*
2b Cedanne

Was really hoping we could flip hicks for teoscar hernandez

Wonder if we could get my boy Brent Rooker

Does Teoscar play 3B???

[drewski6]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Does Teoscar play 3B???

He would DH, Mayer 3b, Cedanne 2b

[Hugh2]

Just now, drewski6 said:

He would DH, Mayer 3b, Cedanne 2b

we literally have like 3 DH's on the team.  We need a 3B and or a 2B. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Which is a better offense?

DH Duran

3B Mayer/Romy

2B DHam/Romy

or

DH Masa/Casas/Romy

3B Paredes/Shaw

2B Mayer/Romy

I'm on record here that Duran won't be a successful full-time DH. Too much energy to waste sitting in the dugout waiting for another at bat.

Plus, I sense a guy like him is better sprinting all night all over the diamond -- on and off to leftfield, moving on defense on every pitch, running down balls in flight or bouncing in the gaps, backing up plays... rather than thinking too much about doing the one thing in sports with the highest rate of failure.