A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Did you get 12+ inches of the white stuff?

More like 4 inches, and at that temp it’s pretty light stuff.  (<- Talk about optimism!)

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

Is it higher than the 1 degree Fahrenheit that it is here?

Just a little.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Did you get 12+ inches of the white stuff?

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He had been called up in '21 and '22. He could have been on the Opening Day roster if they wanted. 

This is not directed at you or anyone else.  But we have a 4.7 bWAR CF now that some would like to move.  Duran had a career -0.8 bWAR at that time.  I cannot imagine the reaction Duran would've gotten.  

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

This is not directed at you or anyone else.  But we a 4.7 bWAR CF now that some would like to move.  Duran had a career -0.8 bWAR at that time.  I cannot imagine the reaction Duran would've gotten.  

On the Opening Day roster isn't the same as starting on Opening Day. If you know you have Duran and Abreu and Rafaela coming soon, why sign Masa? It makes no sense. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

On the Opening Day roster isn't the same as starting on Opening Day. If you know you have Duran and Abreu and Rafaela coming soon, why sign Masa? It makes no sense. 

That would be a question for Bloom. Maybe he wasn’t that high on the three you listed IDK.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That would be a question for Bloom. Maybe he wasn’t that high on the three you listed IDK.

Well, he ended up being wrong. 

[notin]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

On the Opening Day roster isn't the same as starting on Opening Day. If you know you have Duran and Abreu and Rafaela coming soon, why sign Masa? It makes no sense. 

Maybe he didn’t think all three would necessarily pan out?  

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe he didn’t think all three would necessarily pan out?  

The internal models they had back then must have sucked a butt then. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He had no idea who Juan Valera was when they signed him. He just trusted the scouts and had JH write a check. Tolle was drafted by Breslow.

I meant Early not Tolle.

He may not have known who Valera was, but the system gets credit or blame based on results.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

On the Opening Day roster isn't the same as starting on Opening Day. If you know you have Duran and Abreu and Rafaela coming soon, why sign Masa? It makes no sense. 

Exactly, and they did not view Masa as a DH.

Now, to be fair, they were not sure all these OF'ers were going to do well. Even Duran, the longest well-performing OF'er of the 3, was a huge question mark the day we signed Masa.

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly, and they did not view Masa as a DH.

Now, to be fair, they were not sure all these OF'ers were going to do well. Even Duran, the longest well-performing OF'er of the 3, was a huge question mark the day we signed Masa.

That’s the kicker they didn’t view Masa as a DH despite his shortcomings as an OF. Then Bloom overpaid for Masa shutting down the bidding in record time. I understand not being sure on the suspects, but as it turns out Bloom was wrong all the way around, and the Red Sox still owe Masa $36M+. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s the kicker they didn’t view Masa as a DH despite his shortcomings as an OF. Then Bloom overpaid for Masa shutting down the bidding in record time. I understand not being sure on the suspects, but as it turns out Bloom was wrong all the way around, and the Red Sox still owe Masa $36M+. 

The misjudged a lot about Masa. They may not have thought he was a plus defender, but they felt he was good enough to play LF, and he is not really "good enough." We've had worse defensive LF'ers, but most were hitting 30 bombs or getting on base over 35% of the time (or  both.)

The Masa signing was Bloom's worst decision, especially in light of how restricted his budget was. Masa and Story were a large percent of his total spending over 4 years.

(The Betts trade was on JH & Co. IMO, so I don't hold that against Bloom, The return for Betts is up for criticism, but the only other reported offers were the one from the Padres w/o Price and the original offer by the LAD, which we tweaked Graterol out of the deal.)

That $18M sure makes a big difference, especially from 2025 to now and next season. Thank God Story finally gave us something good. Let's hope that continues. I suppose Masa might still help us over the next two years, and if we trade an OF'er he will likely get a long look at DH. IMO, it's almost impossible for Masa to redeem himself and break e ven with his cost vs production, even when you factor in the norm for FA signings and their cost v production.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

More like 4 inches, and at that temp it’s pretty light stuff.  (<- Talk about optimism!)

They canceled school for today on Friday- over just the idea of a Saturday night ice strom.

We got nothing but rain. It's sunny today, streets are dry and its about 32 degrees.

LMAO!

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The internal models they had back then must have sucked a butt then. 

Anything designed to predict the future can be wrong; they erred on the side of caution.

Would you prefer the team had too many outfielders or too few?

[Kimmi]

On 1/21/2026 at 9:43 AM, drewski6 said:

Id do it.  In 2026, elite Catchers pick up a CF glove and become elite CF's in a year.  Everyone is moving around.

Duran's CF defense + 2b Raf's defense vs Raf's CF defense vs Durans 2b defense

80+80 vs 100+ ? 

Does Duran clear 60 (on a 1-100 scale), eh, honestly probably not.

So I wouldnt do it, becuase Id play Cedanne there instead.

It makes sense that we'd want the best overall defensive alignment possible.  It's very possible that Rafaela at 2B and Duran in CF would be a better overall alignment than the other way around.  I would really, really hate to lose Rafaela's elite defense in CF, but playing him at 2B could be a solution to filling that position and dealing with our crowded outfield.

With that being said, I'm not sure why Duran couldn't work his way to being a solid defender at 2B,  I'm sure the Red Sox have a reason for not considering him there, but I'm not sure what it is.

[Kimmi]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They canceled school for today on Friday- over just the idea of a Saturday night ice strom.

We got nothing but rain. It's sunny today, streets are dry and its about 32 degrees.

LMAO!

The schools in southeastern Virginia do the same thing.  They cancel school because of the potential of inclement weather, then we typically end up getting rain.  LOL

Today and tomorrow are teacher workdays, so there was no need to cancel school this time around.

BTW, snow days are not what they used to be!  They actually don't cancel school anymore, but rather go with a virtual learning day.

[Kimmi]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Anything designed to predict the future can be wrong; they erred on the side of caution.

Would you prefer the team had too many outfielders or too few?

Exactly.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Anything designed to predict the future can be wrong; they erred on the side of caution.

Nowadays, there are even some people wrong about predicting the past.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

February starts this Sunday.

I'd try out for to play second base for the Red Sox, but wrecked my wrist shoveling snow. My current past present future tense is notnow or never.

Any other candidates to degrade the position?

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They canceled school for today on Friday- over just the idea of a Saturday night ice strom.

We got nothing but rain. It's sunny today, streets are dry and its about 32 degrees.

LMAO!

I use to go to Houston.  Even the hint of ice would result in a 72-car pileup.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Anything designed to predict the future can be wrong; they erred on the side of caution.

Would you prefer the team had too many outfielders or too few?

Erring on the side of caution by signing a DH to play OF. Kinda wild to me. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The middle infield is going to be ok. Keith Law said if Franklin Arias was a college sophomore, he'd go Number One Overall in this year's draft.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The middle infield is going to be ok. Keith Law said if Franklin Arias was a college sophomore, he'd go Number One Overall in this year's draft.

No, he said he'd be in the conversation for 1-1 in the 2027 draft, bucko...

Law is also the highest guy on Arias. Nobody else has him evaluated like that. 

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, Kimmi said:

It makes sense that we'd want the best overall defensive alignment possible.  It's very possible that Rafaela at 2B and Duran in CF would be a better overall alignment than the other way around.  I would really, really hate to lose Rafaela's elite defense in CF, but playing him at 2B could be a solution to filling that position and dealing with our crowded outfield.

With that being said, I'm not sure why Duran couldn't work his way to being a solid defender at 2B,  I'm sure the Red Sox have a reason for not considering him there, but I'm not sure what it is.

I embrace versatility, so if I saw that Duran was working on 2b defensively, I wouldnt be against it.  But if we open the season without any additional acquisitions, I lean towards Cedanne at 2b to start because there would be less learning curve.  Hes already got quite a head start towards getting good there defensively, and I wouldnt expect the position change to be permanent.  I also dont believe the advanced defensive stats saying Cedanne isnt a good infield defender.  Hed be a good defender anywhere on the diamond except maybe catcher. Its not like hes so good in the outfield because hes so fast.  Its his instinct, jump, determination, focus, arm. Some of that I expect to cross over.

I think eventually injuries / slumps will clear up any logjam and when I talk about Duran and/or Cedanne at 2b, I mean until there is an injury or acquisition, or even a breakout (maybe Campbell forces himself to be called up).

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I embrace versatility, so if I saw that Duran was working on 2b defensively, I wouldnt be against it.  But if we open the season without any additional acquisitions, I lean towards Cedanne at 2b to start because there would be less learning curve.  Hes already got quite a head start towards getting good there defensively, and I wouldnt expect the position change to be permanent.  I also dont believe the advanced defensive stats saying Cedanne isnt a good infield defender.  Hed be a good defender anywhere on the diamond except maybe catcher. Its not like hes so good in the outfield because hes so fast.  Its his instinct, jump, determination, focus, arm. Some of that I expect to cross over.

I think eventually injuries / slumps will clear up any logjam and when I talk about Duran and/or Cedanne at 2b, I mean until there is an injury or acquisition, or even a breakout (maybe Campbell forces himself to be called up).

I disagree 100%. Why do the BOSTON RED SOX have to settle at all. Less learning curve? Why do we have to talk about that at all. Right now the Red Sox don’t have a regular 2B, or a regular 3B. WHY? Yes there are guys who can play there, but why do the Red Sox have to settle for only that. Two years ago the Red Sox went through 11 different 2B, and I don’t know how many last year. WHY? How many different 1B has played there the last few years? WHY? Logjams? WHY?🤭🤭

[notin]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I embrace versatility, so if I saw that Duran was working on 2b defensively, I wouldnt be against it.  But if we open the season without any additional acquisitions, I lean towards Cedanne at 2b to start because there would be less learning curve.  Hes already got quite a head start towards getting good there defensively, and I wouldnt expect the position change to be permanent.  I also dont believe the advanced defensive stats saying Cedanne isnt a good infield defender.  Hed be a good defender anywhere on the diamond except maybe catcher. Its not like hes so good in the outfield because hes so fast.  Its his instinct, jump, determination, focus, arm. Some of that I expect to cross over.

I think eventually injuries / slumps will clear up any logjam and when I talk about Duran and/or Cedanne at 2b, I mean until there is an injury or acquisition, or even a breakout (maybe Campbell forces himself to be called up).

As the team is currently built, is it worth compromising defense at both CF and 2b to get Yoshida’s bat in the lineup?

It seems like the options are

Duran DH

Rafaela CF

Hamilton/Romy 2b

Or:

Duran CF

Rafaela 2b

Yoshida DH

Granted a lot can change between now and ST

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

As the team is currently built, is it worth compromising defense at both CF and 2b to get Yoshida’s bat in the lineup?

It seems like the options are

Duran DH

Rafaela CF

Hamilton/Romy 2b

Or:

Duran CF

Rafaela 2b

Yoshida DH

Granted a lot can change between now and ST

To get in the lineup sometimes? Yes

To get in the lineup daily? No

You use your depth and keep guys from sitting too long, especially early in the season.

If Yoshida is on the team, and he likely will be, he shouldnt and wont sit for entire months.  

And the times when you'll want to get him will present themselves you wont even have to try.  Someone will need a day off or whatever.

If, say, Mayer has a kid and is gone for a weekend....

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I disagree 100%. Why do the BOSTON RED SOX have to settle at all. Less learning curve? Why do we have to talk about that at all. Right now the Red Sox don’t have a regular 2B, or a regular 3B. WHY? Yes there are guys who can play there, but why do the Red Sox have to settle for only that. Two years ago the Red Sox went through 11 different 2B, and I don’t know how many last year. WHY? How many different 1B has played there the last few years? WHY? Logjams? WHY?🤭🤭

Why? Because they audibled to building an elite pitching staff when they couldnt land the guys who would have fixed the offense.  And here we are.

But somebody is going to need to play 2b, and they may go get an experienced infielder.  Even still, there will be injuries/days off and being able to move guys around is a plus.

[notin]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

February starts this Sunday.

I'd try out for to play second base for the Red Sox, but wrecked my wrist shoveling snow. My current past present future tense is notnow or never.

Any other candidates to degrade the position?

A lot of talk about pushing Duran back to 2b, a position he hasn’t played since college, I believe.  Before I went there, I’d just sign Luis Arraez and return him to 2b where he was awful, but at least doesnt have to re-learn anything he hasn’t done in the past decade.

The real dark horse with no mention to date is Thairo Estrada, who posted ungodly OAA numbers in 2022 and 2023 at 2b for San Fran.  He was also worth 6.3 fWAR in that 2 year stretch.  He’s battled some injuries since and had limited playing time the past two seasons.  He is only 29 and looking for work.  He might even be available on a minor league deal…