A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, notin said:

DH: Devers vs Yoshida. Devers is better but Yoshida is a good hitter.  Plus at some point I expect Casas and Romy in the mix.  While no Devers, that trio is probably an upgrade over the last 90 games from the Sox.

2025 BOS DH: 125 wRC+ (6th in MLB), 33 HR, 97 RBI, 97 R

You think a combination of Masa, Casas and Romy will do better than that? 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Okamoto expected to sign with Pittsburgh! 
 

Mets still need an outfielder. Duran to the Mets for vientos and tong!!!!  

How does Vientos/Tong make the Sox better? 

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV accepts...

Rafaela, Crawford, Cespedes, Yoshida & Hicks

for

Donovan & Arenado

They have Arenado at -15.1 (It should be worse)

Yoshida -26.1 and Hicks -18.0, so straight up would require us to play $29M! That's absurd. It would put us over the tax line and close to the second one!

Red Sox really going for that 2025 STL feel. 

[Duran Is The Man]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How does Vientos/Tong make the Sox better? 

once you realize that he's trying to make the Mets better, it makes sense.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

2025 BOS DH: 125 wRC+ (6th in MLB), 33 HR, 97 RBI, 97 R

You think a combination of Masa, Casas and Romy will do better than that? 

You eliminated the part about the last 90 games, which  I assumed most would interpret to mean “after Devers”, and not “hey let’s include Devers anyway”

After Devers was traded, Boston.’s DHs put up a wRC+ of 96 with 9 HRs and 44 RBI.  
 

So yes, I stand by that…

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

You eliminated the part about the last 90 games, which  I assumed most would interpret to mean “after Devers”, and not “hey let’s include Devers anyway”

After Devers was traded, Boston.’s DHs put up a wRC+ of 96 with 9 HRs and 44 RBI.  
 

So yes, I stand by that…

The 2025 BOS DH numbers included the last 90 games. Why would we exclude Devers if we are looking at comparing year to year? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

You eliminated the part about the last 90 games, which  I assumed most would interpret to mean “after Devers”, and not “hey let’s include Devers anyway”

After Devers was traded, Boston.’s DHs put up a wRC+ of 96 with 9 HRs and 44 RBI.  
 

So yes, I stand by that…

Those 90 games were similar to the 85 career postseason games of David Ortiz: 17 HRs, 61 RBI, .947 OPS.

The similarity was that all those guys DHed... (though Papi did play some snazzy World Series 1B in NL parks). 

[notin]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The 2025 BOS DH numbers included the last 90 games. Why would we exclude Devers if we are looking at comparing year to year? 

Because I f***ing wanted to.

I said they are an upgrade over the DHs the Sox had for the last 90 games.  I didn’t know I had to supply a reason WHY I made that statement as well…

[notin]

31 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Those 90 games were similar to the 85 career postseason games of David Ortiz: 17 HRs, 61 RBI, .947 OPS.

The similarity was that all those guys DHed... (though Papi did play some snazzy World Series 1B in NL parks). 

So you’re saying the 2026 Sox DH candidates should do better than Bog Papi?

I can agree with that since he’s like 50 years old…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

So you’re saying the 2026 Sox DH candidates should do better than Bog Papi?

I can agree with that since he’s like 50 years old…

Nothing a few protein shakes can't cure.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nothing a few protein shakes can't cure.

Ummm yes it is.  All those would do is make a fatter Papi.

The only cure for aging is death…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I get you want to trade our WAR leader, and best pitcher acquired in the Devers dump.

I'd do Duran and Harrison for Marte, too.

But you'd also include Romy... Romy Gonzalez?@! Our only .300 hitter for a guy who batted 20 points lower?

Cora will be apoplectic; he's already lost his other platoon lefty masher. What if Romy grows back his mustache?

It's a lot to give up. I might not give up this much. It was just something that worked on BTV, and I like to make sure the other teams get slightly more BTV value, so it seems more fair.

I'd prefer to give DHam and a far away prospect and keep Romy, but that trade would not fly.

[moonslav59]

N Lowe hit about .790, and so did Contreras.

One could argue that trade brought us to even at DH/1B, if you throw out the Devers & others at DH games.

I do agree that Masa/Casas/Romy could and should hit around .790, too, combined.

My concern is replacing Bregman with Mayer, and if Romy is at DH/1B, then DHam & Sogard play 2B.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

N Lowe hit about .790, and so did Contreras.

One could argue that trade brought us to even at DH/1B, if you throw out the Devers & others at DH games.

I do agree that Masa/Casas/Romy could and should hit around .790, too, combined.

My concern is replacing Bregman with Mayer, and if Romy is at DH/1B, then DHam & Sogard play 2B.

The problem won't be Sogard, who tied Nate Eaton with Bregman last year for the team lead in postseason double.

The problem will be if the Red Sox have to rely on Sogard and Eaton again to lead the team in playoff double in 2026.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The problem won't be Sogard, who tied Nate Eaton with Bregman last year for the team lead in postseason double.

The problem will be if the Red Sox have to rely on Sogard and Eaton again to lead the team in playoff double in 2026.

I think a lot of people upset about the postseason seem to have forgotten that 32 the Sox 96 postseason at bats went to Eaton, Romy, Refsnyder, Lowe and Sogard, who combined to produce only 6 hits…

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's a lot to give up. I might not give up this much. It was just something that worked on BTV, and I like to make sure the other teams get slightly more BTV value, so it seems more fair.

I'd prefer to give DHam and a far away prospect and keep Romy, but that trade would not fly.

You do realize that if you drew names out of a hat you’d have just as much a chance of an actual trade happening as consulting BTV?🤓

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I think a lot of people upset about the postseason seem to have forgotten that 32 the Sox 96 postseason at bats went to Eaton, Romy, Refsnyder, Lowe and Sogard, who combined to produce only 6 hits…

And Duran, Rafaela and Abreu combined for 1 hit.  It was a feeble offensive effort in general.  

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And Duran, Rafaela and Abreu combined for 1 hit.  It was a feeble offensive effort in general.  

Some starters struggle I every postseason series. But you can’t get 1/3 of your PT from bench players and assume that was full strength…

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And Duran, Rafaela and Abreu combined for 1 hit.  It was a feeble offensive effort in general.  

As I’ve said before the Red Sox missed, and could of used Raffy’s bat.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You do realize that if you drew names out of a hat you’d have just as much a chance of an actual trade happening as consulting BTV?🤓

Point?

[moonslav59]

Our rotation & rotation depth has gone over a significant makeover and reduction. Gone are these 2025 SP'er numbers:

GS SP'er (IP/ERA)

26 Giolito (145/ 3.41)

22 Buehler (110/5.40)

11 Dobbins (53/4.25)

10 Fitts (41/4.83

9 Houck (44/8.04)

5 Newcomb (22/4.43)

5 D May (25/5.68)

3 Bernardino (3/2.70) as an opener

1 Criswell (7/1.29)

1 de Leon (7/4.05)

That's 93 Games Started vanished! (10 pitchers and 57.5% of GS'd!)

There was some good: Gio+Dobbins+Criswell+ de Leo + Bernardino (214 IP & 3.58 ERA)

There was some not so good to horrific: Buehler, Houck, DMay, Fitts & Newcomb (198.2 IP & 5.21 ERA)

Here is how I see the current SP rotation ranking, assuming Sandoval & Crawford are healthy:

2025 IP & ERA

1. Crochet 205/2.59

2. S Gray 181/4.28 w STL

3. B Bello 163/3.34

4. Oviedo 40/3.57 w PIT

5. Sandoval IL (80/5.08 in '24)

6. Crawford IL (184/4.36 in '24)

7. Harrison 9/4.00 w Sox

T8. Tolle 10/7.84

T8. Early 19/2.33

(Houck to 60 Day IL, once season starts)

AAA on the 40: Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin

AAA/AA not on 40: Gamboa, Mullins, Bennett, Holobetz, Rogers, Wehunt, Rivera, Dean

We go about 9-10 deep, assuming health. We added 4 pitchers to the mix: Gray, Oviedo, Crawford & Sandoval and subtracted 10 (really just 7 of significance: Giolito, Buehler, Dobbins, Houck, Fitts, DMay & Newcomb)

Let's see how this group does. The 2025 rotation finished...

9th in ERA-

12th in fWAR

15th in FIP

20th in K%-BB%

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You do realize that if you drew names out of a hat you’d have just as much a chance of an actual trade happening as consulting BTV?🤓

You do realize I don't care about that.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

As I’ve said before the Red Sox missed, and could of used Raffy’s bat.

Unless he was too busy whining to the press.  The Sox had a few injuries that postseason, and we all know how much Raffy hates being asked to pitch in and help his own team..

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

As I’ve said before the Red Sox missed, and could of used Raffy’s bat.

Good for you. I guess you predict he'd have done well. (LOL)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Unless he was too busy whining to the press.  The Sox had a few injuries that postseason, and we all know how much Raffy hates being asked to pitch in and help his own team..

Oh, sure -- Giolito hurts his arm and can't start in the playoffs, and now they want Raffy to pitch in.

The next thing you know, they'll use a batting order full of bench warmers in the Bronx, and then ask Raffy to bat in two or three spots. How's he supposed to knock himself in, if he can't face Cole every at bat.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Oh, sure -- Giolito hurts his arm and can't start in the playoffs, and now they want Raffy to pitch in.

The next thing you know, they'll use a batting order full of bench warmers in the Bronx, and then ask Raffy to bat in two or three spots. How's he supposed to knock himself in, if he can't face Cole every at bat.

Especially since Cole quit on the Yankees before the season even started…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

I think a lot of people upset about the postseason seem to have forgotten that 32 the Sox 96 postseason at bats went to Eaton, Romy, Refsnyder, Lowe and Sogard, who combined to produce only 6 hits…

Maybe a lot of fans already forgot the names from the '25 Red Sox postseason batting order, but it's going to be hard to forget that was Boston's worst playoff line-up of all-time. 

As far as being undermanned, Anthony was injured -- but that's one guy. The rest of the roster was undermanned because of the CBO and his bosses.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Some starters struggle I every postseason series. But you can’t get 1/3 of your PT from bench players and assume that was full strength…

If Mayer is a starter on Opening day, there's a good chance one of those guys would be on your playoff starting roster again. Unsure about the health luck with Breggie/Anthony/Abreu/Story or others. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe a lot of fans already forgot the names from the '25 Red Sox postseason batting order, but it's going to be hard to forget that was Boston's worst playoff line-up of all-time. 

1999 Red Sox

[notin]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe a lot of fans already forgot the names from the '25 Red Sox postseason batting order, but it's going to be hard to forget that was Boston's worst playoff line-up of all-time. 

As far as being undermanned, Anthony was injured -- but that's one guy. The rest of the roster was undermanned because of the CBO and his bosses.

You can’t go start lower than the CBO.

Why did Abreu only get 5 ABs?  Sogard, Refsnyder and Romy. GG outfielder, second on the team in home runs and Hes in the lineup less than the bench bats.  And I don’t want to hear the “Yankees started two lefties.”  Duran started against them and was worse than Abreu vs LHP.  Eaton’s OPS vs LHP didn’t justify a platoon with Abreu either.

It was a bad decision made multiple times…