A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Per section 10 they have scouts who have followed Japanese hitters, and their thoughts were it wouldnt translate in MLB at 3b for either Okamoto or Munetaka. And that both will be poor at 1b, that most likely be destined for DH. 

I have my doubts on that.

Many decent 3Bmen become fine 1Bmen. It's very rare when the look worse at 1B, even though they are usually older or very old.

Anyway, I can't imagine anyone worse than Casas.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

iN case you are still skeptical that the Red Sox are being intentionally cheap take a look at the payroll versus revenue stats from Sportrac.

As you can see the Red Sox are 4th in overall revenue in MLB. They trail only the LA Dodgers #1, the New York Yankees #2, and The Chicago Cubs #3 in total revenues. Yet their payroll percentage versus their revenue is 23rd overall in professional baseball. And we're not even counting the fake 2 year contracts such as Giolito or Sandoval who never play a game for the Red Sox even if their money is officially on the books.

Quite frankly I'm disgusted by how the 4th biggest team in MLB is being run like they are bottom dwelling minnows. The ownership has failed the fans. They have disappointed year after year and this has become a clear pattern of behavior now and it's tiresome.

I find it interesting that we are about as far away from the NYY and the TBR, in terms of % spent.

I think we were one of 7 teams that went over the tax line, so maybe a shift upwards is underway.

If we'd stop making so much money, we could move up on this list!

LOL>

[Larry Cook]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Over Uberstine & Drohan????

I do not know, I never seen him pitch. But we are going to have an awesome pitching staff at Worcester 

[Larry Cook]

Mukamuri signing with Chicago white Sox. Did not expect that 

[Duran Is The Man]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Mukamuri signing with Chicago white Sox. Did not expect that 

me either. glad the Sox passed on him. he might be successful, but to me, he looks like a strike out machine.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Mukamuri signing with Chicago white Sox. Did not expect that 

I’m not surprised at all, never understood the hype around him when every scouting report out there was a bunch of red flags.

i laughed when I read the mlbtraderumors 180 million projection

[vjcsmoke]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd like to see some documentation on that.  It's kind of like you're saying that you bought a car that was gutted in a fire for $20k.  And the insurance company still insured it for $20k.  I'm pretty sure insurance companies don't get rich by issuing policies and settling claims and damaged property.  

Here's an article from ESPN that explains how baseball insurance works. Insurance for a human is obviously not the same as for a car. The example given was Albert Belle who signed a 5 year/65 million dollar contract with the Orioles.

Article: ESPN.com - Major League Baseball - Sports Insurance 101: A primer

TLDR:

Insurance can cover from 50% to 80% of a player's salary when they are injured. Standard is 70%.

There is a waiting period before you can collect the money, usually 90 days or 182 days.

Basic maths if the player's salary is 10 million per year and misses 30 days:

1. $10 million (season salary) divided by 182 (days in season) = $54,945 per day
2. Multiply $54,945 times 30 days missed due to injury = $1.645 million loss to team
3. 70 percent (amount insurance company covers) of $1.645 million = $1.154 million
4. $1.154 minus amount of premium = total amount insurance company pays team

Buying insurance for a player is a no brainer especially if he is injury prone, you just have to pay a higher premium depending on the position or injury history.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I do not know, I never seen him pitch. But we are going to have an awesome pitching staff at Worcester 

Depends on how many of these guys end up in the MLB pen. That may be the one good thing about Hicks: he'll keep a kid as a starter.

Assuming all are healthy, including Dobbins, Crawford and Sandoval, we have 8 pitchers looking at the 5 man rotation, not counting Tolle & Early!

Crochet, Gray & Bello are locks

Oviedo, Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins & Harrison are the others. 1-3 might go to the pen, but assuming none do, our AAA rotation might be:

Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Tolle & Early-- WOW!

That leaves these guys for the AAA or MLB pen or traded or AA: Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin, Mullins, E Rivera. That's not a bad AAA rotation, either.

AA: Bennett, Holobetz, Wehunt, Rogers, Dean (2-3 look promising)

A+: Valera, Fajardo, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson/Aita (looks awesome to me)

 

 

[vjcsmoke]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Mukamuri signing with Chicago white Sox. Did not expect that 

The White Sox only paid him 2 years/34 million. That's a short term deal and the money isn't that big for a guy who hit 25 homeruns and over 1.000 OPS last season in NPB. It's a relative bargain compared to the 30 million dollar salaries handed out to MLB proven free agents like Alonso. The gamble of course is will a power bat  from Japan translate versus the MLB level of pitching.

Signing a Japanese player is not without risks but the contract was just a short term 2 year deal for a 25 year old slugger. To me this shows the Red Sox were either not interested in him or were just not interested in spending money to address the position even though the lack of a 1B was a major weakness for the team last season.

 

[Hugh2]

Just now, vjcsmoke said:

The White Sox only paid him 2 years/34 million. That's a short term deal and the money isn't that big for a guy who hit 25 homeruns and over 1.000 OPS last season in NPB. It's a relative bargain compared to the 30 million dollar salaries handed out to MLB proven free agents like Alonso. The gamble of course is will a power bat  from Japan translate versus the MLB level of pitching.

Signing a Japanese player is not without risks but the contract was just a short term 2 year deal for a 25 year old slugger. To me this shows the Red Sox were either not interested in him or were just not interested in spending money to address the position even though the lack of a 1B was a major weakness for the team last season.

 

This shows me that no one was really interested.  It took a garbage organization to swoop in and give him two years.  

[vjcsmoke]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I find it interesting that we are about as far away from the NYY and the TBR, in terms of % spent.

I think we were one of 7 teams that went over the tax line, so maybe a shift upwards is underway.

If we'd stop making so much money, we could move up on this list!

LOL>

Sadly the revenue numbers is probably the exact reason why we'll never lose John Henry as an owner.

It is very profitable for him to be cheap and pinch his pennies.

He will rake in his bucks as long as he can milk the fanbase. The Red Sox don't have to be contenders, they need to win just enough for tickets and season access packages to be bought.

It's easy for Henry to stomach criticism from fans when he's making that much profits from the team. As the saying goes he's laughing all the way to the bank.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

Sadly the revenue numbers is probably the exact reason why we'll never lose John Henry as an owner.

It is very profitable for him to be cheap and pinch his pennies.

He will rake in his bucks as long as he can milk the fanbase. The Red Sox don't have to be contenders, they need to win just enough for tickets and season access packages to be bought.

It's easy for Henry to stomach criticism from fans when he's making that much profits from the team. As the saying goes he's laughing all the way to the bank.

It's the way of the world. If this was any other business, not much would be talked about.

[JoeBrady]

56 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

Buying insurance for a player is a no brainer

But the point being is that insurance companies don't cover accidents (injuries in this case) that have already happened.  It's possible that the RS have coverage for 2026, but they certainly couldn't get coverage for 2025.

[JoeBrady]

46 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This shows me that no one was really interested.  It took a garbage organization to swoop in and give him two years.

Seeing this from the WS perspective, they won't likely be competitive for two years.  If the dude can't catch up with a FB, then they out from under the contract in two years, when their window opens.  If he is the real deal, then they have him under arbitration for 4 more years.  Unlike most FAs, where poor teams get ruined by bad signings, I think this is just the opposite.

A playoff contender can't risk a starting spot, even if they can risk the money.  A bad team can.

[moonslav59]

I can't imagine us going through this winter without 1 or 2 significant FA signings. If we make a big trade or two, maybe not so many signings.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/20/2025 at 8:04 AM, moonslav59 said:

Yes, the deals like Paxton, Hendriks and Sandoval all promised some help in late season 1, but it never happened, and then year 2 was no walk in the park.

The Gio signing was different. He was healthy and had a durable history. The year 1 was an unexpected event, but nevertheless, it happened.

The other longer deals had opt-outs.

It was good to see Chapman extended and given another option year, but they guy is turning 80 soon.

We did lock up Crochet, but when the next longterm FA signing happens is in doubt. Yoshida and Story are the only two in over 6 years, and neither was really top dollar.

Don't remind me about Paxton.  I mean how much money did we waste on these type of rehabbing P deals ??

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Don't remind me about Paxton.  I mean how much money did we waste on these type of rehabbing P deals ??

I'm against continuing that trend- 100%.

Even deals like Kluber, Richards and Buehler -apparently healthy- bug me.

[moonslav59]

24 of 40 players on the 40 are pitchers.

[UtahSox]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I have my doubts on that.

Many decent 3Bmen become fine 1Bmen. It's very rare when the look worse at 1B, even though they are usually older or very old.

Anyway, I can't imagine anyone worse than Casas.

Section 10 said it…. Not me, their sources said that they both project best as DH’s which is part of why their markets haven’t been hot.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Section 10 said it…. Not me, their sources said that they both project best as DH’s which is part of why their markets haven’t been hot.

Okay, but they cant be worse on D than Casas.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying I'd want to trade away this much of the future, but this could keep us under or near the tax line and significantly boost our chances.

Trade Rafaela, Crawford & Harrison for K Marte

Trade Duran for Lodolo

Trade Dobbins & Mullins for Y Diaz

Sign Wilson

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. R YDiaz 1B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Masa LF/R Campbell LF

7. L Casas/Masas DH/R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer/R Romy 3B

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Tolle/Early

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not saying I'd want to trade away this much of the future, but this could keep us under or near the tax line and significantly boost our chances.

Trade Rafaela, Crawford & Harrison for K Marte

Trade Duran for Lodolo

Trade Dobbins & Mullins for Y Diaz

Sign Wilson

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. R YDiaz 1B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Masa LF/R Campbell LF

7. L Casas/Masas DH/R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer/R Romy 3B

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Tolle/Early

I think I’d rather keep Duran than trade him for Lodolo in this deal. 
crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo/Sandoval/Tolle/Early

LF Anthony

2b Marte

1b Diaz

RF Abreu

SS Story

CF Duran

DH Casas/ Yoshida or Romy

c Narvaez

3B Mayer (hope he isn’t a platoon if he is… multiple prominent Talksox contributors will have some explaining to do.)

 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I think I’d rather keep Duran than trade him for Lodolo in this deal. 
crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo/Sandoval/Tolle/Early

LF Anthony

2b Marte

1b Diaz

RF Abreu

SS Story

CF Duran

DH Casas/ Yoshida or Romy

c Narvaez

3B Mayer (hope he isn’t a platoon if he is… multiple prominent Talksox contributors will have some explaining to do.)

 

I see the point. Trading Duran takes away from the gain of adding KMarte.

[moonslav59]

Possible 1 or 2 year FA signings left...

3B/1B?: E Suarez 34, Moncada 31, Okamoto 30

2B: D Moore 33

1B: Hoskins 33, O'Hearn 32

SP: Bassitt 37, Corbin 36, Verlander 43, Scherzer 41, Eflin 32, Heany 35, Lorenzen 34, Monty 33

RP: Wilson 38, Newcomb 33, Junis 33

C: Realmuto 35, Caratini 32

DH: Ozuna 35

 

[moonslav59]

2022-2025 OPS Leaders

Contreras is 31st at .817- ahead of Cal Raleigh, Lindor and Tatis.

45th in SLG .461- tied with Y Diaz & E Suarez (45th in ISO) 72nd in HRs w 77.

22nd in OBP at ,356- about tied with KMarte, Seager and J Ramirez

[moonslav59]

Contreras turns 34 in May, but has just 2 years left.

Does this make Casas trade bait or in the running for the DH slot?

Do we still feel like we are logjammed at SP'ers from A+ to MLB?

I gotta think 2B/3B is still a major need area. I'm not sure Brez is still looking for a #2 SP'er. Maybe we add a RP'er and 3B/2Bman (KMarte? Bregman? Bichette? Paredes? Donovan? Suarez? Vientos?)

[moonslav59]

Cots has us about $4M under the tax line.

I think I heard somewhere that KMarte's remaining lux tax would be just under $14.7M.

If we traded Duran ($7.8) + Crawford (2.7M) we'd be real close to the line.

Maybe we can also sign Okamoto and trade some other salary- like Rafaela ($6.3M) Sandlin and Hicks ($10.2M) for Lodolo and stay under.

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. R Contreras 1B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Okamoto 3B

6. L Yoshida LF /R Campbell LF

7. R Story SS

8. L Casas DH/ R Romy DH

9. R Narvaez C

Bench: Wong, Mayer, Campbell, Romy

 

 

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

The White Sox only paid him 2 years/34 million. That's a short term deal and the money isn't that big for a guy who hit 25 homeruns and over 1.000 OPS last season in NPB. It's a relative bargain compared to the 30 million dollar salaries handed out to MLB proven free agents like Alonso. The gamble of course is will a power bat  from Japan translate versus the MLB level of pitching.

Signing a Japanese player is not without risks but the contract was just a short term 2 year deal for a 25 year old slugger. To me this shows the Red Sox were either not interested in him or were just not interested in spending money to address the position even though the lack of a 1B was a major weakness for the team last season.

 

I think his market was next to nothing. I'm glad we passed. 

Great signing for the White Sox, though. If it hits, they can trade him for huge haul. If it doesn't, no big deal. 

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Does this make Casas trade bait or in the running for the DH slot?

The trade suggests that Casas is gone.  My guess is that he'll need rehab in AAA.  Once healthy, he should have trade value, and probably has trade value even with the injury.

[Larry Cook]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Contreras turns 34 in May, but has just 2 years left.

Does this make Casas trade bait or in the running for the DH slot?

Do we still feel like we are logjammed at SP'ers from A+ to MLB?

I gotta think 2B/3B is still a major need area. I'm not sure Brez is still looking for a #2 SP'er. Maybe we add a RP'er and 3B/2Bman (KMarte? Bregman? Bichette? Paredes? Donovan? Suarez? Vientos?)

The New York radio guys urging stern to revisit Duran for Tong and Vientos!