Article: Trying to Understand the Red Sox's Obsession with Jarren Duran

[Brandon Glick]

In our community here at Talk Sox, there seems to be something of a divide between the writers and the readers (which is a good thing! Dissenting opinion is healthy [when respectful]!). There are some on either side of the fence that agree with the others, but, effectively, the divide boils down to your opinion on Jarren Duran, and what you think the Red Sox should do with him at the trade deadline. The writers seem to agree that Boston should trade Duran over the next few days for some pitching help, while the readers generally have come to the consensus that the left fielder is far too valuable to deal for anything less than a monster haul.

From the information available to us, it seems Craig Breslow and the front office agree with the readers. The team reportedly declined an offer from the San Diego Padres of SP Dylan Cease, C Ethan Salas and another prospect (not SS Leo de Vries). I'll share some opinions on this decision below (spoiler alert: I think it's a joke that the team said no to this), but first, we need to dive into Duran's profile and find out where the disconnect is.

First, let's rewind the clock a year and remember the magical season that was 2024. Ranking in the 95th percentile or higher in all three facets of the game—baserunning, hitting, and fielding—Duran emerged as an elite center fielder who could do it all. He slashed .285/.342/.492 good for a 130 wRC+ and 6.8 fWAR. That production earned him his lone All-Star nod and an eight-place finish in AL MVP voting. Of course, leading the league in plate appearances, at-bats, doubles, and triples helped the cause, as did his career-high 21 home runs, 34 stolen bases, and 10 Outs Above Average (23 DRS) in over 1,400 innings in the outfield.

By all accounts, he was a superstar in 2024, a true franchise-caliber building block who could do it all. If you disagree with that point, this conversation can't even really get off the ground.

In the same vein, that also means Duran's trade value was at its absolute peak this past offseason. Having just turned 28 with four years of team control remaining as a Super Two player, he could have been the second-most prized trade candidate on the winter market, just after current Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Boston didn't really even entertain the idea of trading Duran, keeping him as a core member of the lineup ahead of the 2025 season.

And so we arrive to the here and now. With the team's "Big Three" prospects all getting some amount of regular playing time in the majors and Rafael Devers traded, the roster looks a lot different than it did even four months ago in spring training, but Duran remains a constant. Having jumped around the lineup but primarily hitting leadoff (drawing 378 at-bats out of the top spot in the order this season), Duran has spent practically all his time in left field this season while ceding center to Ceddanne Rafaela.

That position switch is a good place to start when analyzing Duran's current trade value. Much has been made about his declining defensive value, and for good reason. After playing like a Gold Glover last year, he's been worth -3 OAA (five DRS) in the outfield this year, about 90% of which has come in left field. That's been a fine trade-off for the Sox, since Rafaela ranks seventh in MLB in OAA (13) and will be locked in a brawl with Denzel Clarke for the AL Gold Glove in center this season, but Duran is clearly struggling with the dimensions of Fenway. It's also important to note that last season was the only one in Duran's career that he graded out as a positive defender.

Looking at his offensive profile, Duran has also declined in most phases this season. After slicing his strikeout rate by nearly three percent last year, Duran is right back at his career average of 24.3% in 2025. The exact same story rings true for his ISO (.183), wRC+ (109), and wOBA (.333). He's hardly a one-hit wonder, but unless you really, really believe that his 2024 season was the baseline and that this season and all others in his career are abnormalities, the 2025 version of Duran is more or less who he is as a ballplayer. So, that begs the question, is this version of Duran as valuable as the Red Sox seem to be treating him as?

Going back to that Padres offer, I want to go on the record and say: If Breslow actually rejected that deal, he needs to pack his things. I'm struggling to believe that report, since that's one of the best rental arms on the market plus a top-30 prospect in baseball (who, admittedly, is struggling with some injuries this year) and more, all for an outfielder with 3.5 years of team control remaining. Yes, Cease isn't having his best year and is due to be a free agent, and Salas (despite resounding praise for his glove work) hasn't yet proven he can hit at the highest levels of the minors. But the story with Cease is the exact same as Duran—tremendous prior production despite a meager campaign this time around—and Salas is a teenager in Double-A who fills a massive need on the roster (backup catcher with a tremendous glove) that projects to be something special down the line (and, if Carlos Narvaez proves to be immovable from the starting catcher position, Salas could have become a Kyle Teel-esque trade asset).

I believe that a big reason why the writers are pro-trading Duran is the current state of the roster. Roman Anthony is in the big leagues and should be playing everyday; Rafaela has already monopolized center field in his breakout season and is signed to an eight-year deal; Wilyer Abreu is providing practically equivalent production to Duran (115 wRC+) and is nearly three years younger, cheaper, and has an extra year of team control remaining. That's all three outfield spots covered for the long-term, two of which are held down by left-handed batters. It's a sign of great organizations to be able to trade from a position of strength, and the Red Sox certainly profile as that in the outfield, especially with Jhostynxon Garcia and James Tibbs III roaming around in the upper levels of the farm system. There just isn't enough space for everyone, and stashing Duran at designated hitter as a hybrid fourth outfielder like the Cubs have been doing with Seiya Suzuki this year feels like a mismanagement of resources, especially since keeping that DH spot open is valuable if a bat-first option becomes available in a contending season.

Of course, the counter to this is that Duran's value isn't at its peak right now, and trading him away for less than he may be worth is poor decision-making. Indeed, his exit velocity (92.2 mph on average, 88th percentile) and bat speed (74.5 mph, 84th percentile) remain special and portend more offensive output in the future, which is already coming to pass. He's turned the jets on in July, posting a .292/.395/.615 slash line to go along with a 172 wRC+ and 13.5% walk rate. That's even better than what he was doing last year, and a feather in the cap of those who remain adamant that the Red Sox find a way to keep all four outfielders (plus Masataka Yoshida) on their roster.

Ultimately, banking on Duran to keep up his recent pace and rediscover his 2024 form feels like an exercise in futility. That's not to say it can't happen—his July performance certainly suggests otherwise—but losing this extra half-season of team control after the deadline might as well make the point moot. The Padres are trying to acquire Duran right now because they have a need in left field this year when they want to compete for a World Series title. What's to say they'll be this aggressive over the offseason, when they could fill that roster spot with a free agent or another trade target? And what's to say the Red Sox, who need pitching right now because they clearly fancy themselves as contenders this year, will be able to get a better offer than the Cease-led package when Duran is 29 and potentially staring down three expensive arbitration years?

From my perspective, it feels like the Red Sox are trying too hard to have their cake and eat it too. You can't pursue great starting pitching at the deadline while calling yourself a buyer only to turn down an offer for one (plus a top prospect) that involves dealing a player at slightly sub-optimal value from your organization's strongest position. I get the obsession—last year was really special—but I don't like the mixed messaging. Either you want to win at all costs, or you build for the future. Unless the front office is convinced a soon-to-be 30-year-old outfielder is part of the team's long-term plans, holding onto Duran with a vice grip right now doesn't convince me the Red Sox know their own path forward.

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[Bellhorn04]

The questions about this are all fair. 

I'm a little old school in some of my thinking, and the conventional thinking about deadline trades for teams that are "going for it" is that you trade guys who are far away from helping you for guys who are going to help right now.  Under that philosophy you would never consider trading a guy who's playing as well as Duran has been playing, because the net balance on the trade could easily be that you get WORSE THIS YEAR. 

Oddly enough, the Red Sox have already made 2 in-season trades that could end up making them WORSE THIS YEAR: the Priester trade and the Devers trade.  Maybe they're squeamish about the prospect of making 3 such trades.

[moonslav59]

You don't trade 3 years of Duran for 2 months of a struggling, but very good SP'er. The top 30 prospect does make a huge difference, but we have a top 10 catcher, already.

I hope it was just hyperbole when suggesting Brez pack his bags for saying no.

Trading Duran (plus others) for Joe Ryan or Mitch Keller makes way more sense. 2 month pitchers do not.

[jad]

Maybe someone in the FO is saying:  You know what?  Sports is entertainment, and he is one of the most popular and entertaining players on the team.    To which JH responds:  How much money can I save getting rid of him now?

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Many Red Sox fans sell Duran short.  I blame Cora for the mishandling of Duran.  He took a player from the minors who was promoted too early and messed with him emotionally.  It was documented in the Netflix series and frankly Cora has also done it to Rafaela and now Campbell.  The guy should be fired for his behavior toward certain young future stars.

July 17, 2021, Duran gets brought up to play CF at Yankee stadium as his first game.  Remember, this is the season before the balanced schedule, so he got tossed into a frying pan by being called up in the middle of the roughest part of the team's schedule. 

He went 1 for 6 in two games in NY, then went 1 for 6 in a make-up game in Toronto and then came back to play in BOS vs the Yankees in a four-game series.  In fact, 21 of his first 24 games were against the AL East represented some of the best teams in the AL that year.  On top of that, he needed to learn the intricacies of playing CF in Fenway overnight which is an impossible task.  13 of his first 24 games were at Fenway and he clearly was a rookie navigating a whole different environment than he was used to.  He looked silly on some plays and that's what stuck in fans' heads.  Eventually, at the start of September he was sent down hitting .215 with a .538 OPS.  He had no business being promoted but Cora was struggling to keep the team winning while trying to make the playoffs.  

In 2022, Cora was up to his same old antics.  He called him up for one game on May 6th then sent him back down for a month.  The next time he was called up was on June 4th, the team was in a weaker part of their schedule and Duran was excellent and won the lead-off spot in the batting order.  By June 26th he was hitting .327 with an .886 OPS.  BOS was about to start into a major portion of their AL East schedule on July 4th with Duran hitting .317 and Cora had his usual brain cramp because he was about to play the NYY on July 7th.  Much like his brain cramps from earlier years like 2018, he likes to get CUTE with his line-up against the Yankees.  In 2018, it was swapping JD Martinez the season-long 3 hitter who was in a battle for most RBIs in baseball while hitting .330 (OBP .400) with a recently acquired player named Steve Pearce, a .260 hitter (OBP .340).  It made no sense, but Pearce had a great series, Cora thought of himself as a savant and JD lost his shot at the MVP while going head-to-head with Mookie. 

After Duran led off during his entire hot streak, Cora decided to cool him off by leading off Refsnyder and sitting Duran after losing the opener versus NY.  Duran was hitting .325 at the time and because Cora never played much in his career, he didn't comprehend that you don't sit a player who is hot, it breaks their momentum.  Duran went cold and his average dropped from .325 to .237 by the end of July roughly 3 weeks later.  By the end of August, he was hitting .220 and was sent down again. 

It's pretty eerie how similar that is to both Rafaela's experience last year with Cora and Campbell's experience with Cora this year.  The unqualified manager has a way of ending hot streaks and taking away a player's confidence.  He should not be managing a young team, heck ANY TEAM!!  He's at best a bench coach and nothing more.

Duran worked on his confidence as outlined in the Netflix story and 2024 he rebounded and finally got recognized again as the lead-off hitter and made the all-star team.  This year, after putting up huge defensive numbers in CF in 2024 Cora chose to move him to LF and created yet another setback for Duran.  He was the best defender in 2024 on the team with Rafaela a close 2nd and Abreu 3rd despite winning an unwarranted GG.  2025 should have begun with Rafaela in RF and Duran in CF and Abreu in LF since he is now by far the weakest defender at both CF and RF.  If that had happened, it's highly likely Duran doesn't struggle with learning how to play the green monster and simply puts up big CF numbers for the second season.  In the meantime, Rafaela playing RF the weakest AL defensive outfield position would have probably been in the running for a platinum glove because he is so much better than any other AL RF.  

As can been seen by these facts, the problem is Cora loves Abreu the platoon RF who didn't earn his RF spot he was given it by a biased manager.  If the team wants to win, Cora needs to be told by Breslow to start playing his assets in their rightful positions or be fired.

There never should have been any discussions about trading the second-best hitter on the team behind Bregman and the second-best defender on the team in the outfield.  There is no obsession with Duran, there are just some smart fans that have observed how badly Cora has treated him and tried to make him look bad so Abreu can play more when he's a platoon hitter that hits under .200 versus LH pitchers.  Duran is the second most talented hitter/fielder on the team and has the potential to return as an all-star in 2026 if he's allowed to lead-off and play CF.

 

 

[S5Dewey]

IMHO this discussion comes down into two camps: the "The numbers are everything" camp a/k/a The Writers, and the " I like the guy and I like what I see" camp, or the fans.

I see the reason Duran is still around is because hes an expensive luxury. He's insurance against injuries in either the OF or the IF (and who gets to have that luxury)? [aside, that was rhetorical.]

Me? I'm on the fence. I think its crazy to hold onto him for "insurance" but at the same time I think he brings "intangibles" that are very important to the chemistry of the team. But thats just MO. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You don't trade 3 years of Duran for 2 months of a struggling, but very good SP'er. The top 30 prospect does make a huge difference, but we have a top 10 catcher, already.

I hope it was just hyperbole when suggesting Brez pack his bags for saying no.

Trading Duran (plus others) for Joe Ryan or Mitch Keller makes way more sense. 2 month pitchers do not.

totally agree.

maybe an alternate title would be: Trying to Understand Brandon's Obsession with a Mediocre Two Month Rental and Catcher Struggling to Hit His Weight in AA.

[mvp 78]

Salas hasn't had an OPS above 600 after being promoted from low A. Dylan Cease is high variance pitcher due to his control issues. Both players have a decently high trade value. That the Sox wouldn't move Duran for them (reports disagree about this assertion one way or the other), shows how highly the Sox value Duran at the very least. This shows to me that they aren't just going to dump him off for some of the trades I've seen proposed on here. It would have to be for a decent return for players with good value and control. 

[Maddie Landis]

He leads the team in VIBES+, MUSCLES+, and xAUTOGRAPHS. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Maddie Landis said:

He leads the team in VIBES+, MUSCLES+, and xAUTOGRAPHS. 

His Stalker% is off the charts. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Maddie Landis said:

He leads the team in VIBES+, MUSCLES+, and xAUTOGRAPHS. 

Thanks Maddie, we needed an analytics whiz like you to step in and give us the true reasons. 😁

[notin]

With Mayer out, Duran becomes more valuable to Boston.  No one prefers Rafaela at 2b instead of CF.  But I would bet everyone prefers him at 2b and Duran in CF over Hamilton at 2b, Rafaela in CF, and Duran on the bench.

Ok maybe not EVERYONE prefers the lineup with Duran over Hamilton.  Opposing pitchers, for example, probably don’t…

[notin]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Salas hasn't had an OPS above 600 after being promoted from low A. Dylan Cease is high variance pitcher due to his control issues. Both players have a decently high trade value. That the Sox wouldn't move Duran for them (reports disagree about this assertion one way or the other), shows how highly the Sox value Duran at the very least. This shows to me that they aren't just going to dump him off for some of the trades I've seen proposed on here. It would have to be for a decent return for players with good value and control. 

Salas has also been out for over 2 months with a stress fracture in his back, attributed to possible overuse.  Why would the Sox use one of their best trade chips on a rental pitcher and a 19yo catcher that already has back problems?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even though most of us know that managers don't promote or demote prospects, we all know the Cora ruined Duran so much that he turned him into the All-Star MVP last year!

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

Salas has also been out for over 2 months with a stress fracture in his back, attributed to possible overuse.  Why would the Sox use one of their best trade chips on a rental pitcher and a 19yo catcher that already has back problems?

Overuse? He's 19! 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Salas hasn't had an OPS above 600 after being promoted from low A. Dylan Cease is high variance pitcher due to his control issues. Both players have a decently high trade value. That the Sox wouldn't move Duran for them (reports disagree about this assertion one way or the other), shows how highly the Sox value Duran at the very least. This shows to me that they aren't just going to dump him off for some of the trades I've seen proposed on here. It would have to be for a decent return for players with good value and control. 

the fact that he's their #2 prospect says more about the condition of the Padres farm system than it does about him.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the fact that he's their #2 prospect says more about the condition of the Padres farm system than it does about him.

Baseball America has him ranked 29th in MiLB. He had been higher. 

[dgalehouse]

I do think that folks who are writers and folks who are average baseball fans tend to look at many things differently.  My vote is to keep Duran, who I view as a key figure in the pennant race and any possible playoff baseball. 

[Duran Is The Man]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Baseball America has him ranked 29th in MiLB. He had been higher. 

i'm sorry, but no way in hell should he be ranked 29. maybe the 29th best catcher. maybe.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm sorry, but no way in hell should he be ranked 29. maybe the 29th best catcher. maybe.

They had him top 10 at one point! 

[Duran Is The Man]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They had him top 10 at one point! 

not surprised. i know we've all seen dozens, maybe hundreds, of "top prospects" fade into oblivion over the decades. that's why i'm always hesitant to trade a proven, established player for "top propects". 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Overuse? He's 19! 

And only 941 career IP behind the plate.  He strikes me as a future mainstay on the Injured List…

[notin]

53 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I do think that folks who are writers and folks who are average baseball fans tend to look at many things differently.  My vote is to keep Duran, who I view as a key figure in the pennant race and any possible playoff baseball. 

If Mayer is out long term, it does make more sense to keep Duran in CF and Rafaela at 2b than to trade Duran and put David Hamilton on the field more often.

But I suppose it all depends what Duran would get traded for…

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

And only 941 career IP behind the plate.  He strikes me as a future mainstay on the Injured List…

Maybe we can send them Romero and they can rehab together? 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

If Mayer is out long term, it does make more sense to keep Duran in CF and Rafaela at 2b than to trade Duran and put David Hamilton on the field more often.

But I suppose it all depends what Duran would get traded for…

They aren't trading Duran now. Rafaela isn't a good IFer though. He's most valuable in CF no matter what. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't trading Duran now. Rafaela isn't a good IFer though. He's most valuable in CF no matter what. 

But he is better than the other option of Hamilton, Sogard and Grissom, which is the point…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

48 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

not surprised. i know we've all seen dozens, maybe hundreds, of "top prospects" fade into oblivion over the decades. that's why i'm always hesitant to trade a proven, established player for "top propects". 

This is why I didn't buy ranking Montgomery as the Red Sox' #5 prospect last year when he hadn't even played an inning of pro ball... or Kyson Witherspoon #5 last week when he hadn't thrown one pro pitch after getting drafted out of college.

Can we at least see a guy compete vs. professionals before we rave about his professional potential?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

But he is better than the other option of Hamilton, Sogard and Grissom, which is the point…

Except that the step down in defense from Rafaela to Duran may be more than the step down from Rafaela to Sogard at 2b.

[Maxbialystock]

Good OP and good discussion, everyone.  Thanks.  I exclude the rant against Cora, which is just silly as well as ignorant.  .

I was all for trading Duran for a #2 starter, but the guy SD is offering ain't a #2.  Plus he's a rental???!!!

Right now Duran leads the Sox in games played, total bases, and runs scored.  He is 4th in rbi's.  All good.  However, his OPS vs lefties is a lousy .567, which is lower than Gonzalez, Bregman, Ref, Narvaez, Rafaela, Yoshida, Abreu, and Anthony.  

As it turns out, the Sox team OPS vs lefties is .761 and .742 vs righties.  And the Sox face righty pitchers more than twice as often (2501 AB's vs 1101).    That's why Rafaela plays 2b against righty starters--so that Cora can get 3 lefty bats in the outfield plus another as DH and another at 1b.   I hasten to add that Rafaela, Duran, and Anthony play almost every game, which makes Abreu the odd man out.  

The top 9 WAR's on the team are Rafaela 4.0, Narvaez 3.1, Bregman 3.0, Duran 2.8, Abreu 2.4, Story 2.1, Anthony 1.7 (in just 40 freaking games), Ref 1.2, and Gonzalez 1.0.  Then come Toro 0.3, Hamilton 0.3,and Mayer 0.2.

And this.  So far this season the Sox starters have pitched 47 quality starts, 4th most in MLB.  41 of the 47 are by the 5 current starters:  Crochet 14, Bello 10, Giolito 9, Buehler 6, and Fitts 2 (in 9 starts).  Cease has 6 quality starts--same as Buehler--in 21 starts.  No way, no how is he a #2 starter.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This is why I didn't buy ranking Montgomery as the Red Sox' #5 prospect last year when he hadn't even played an inning of pro ball... or Kyson Witherspoon #5 last week when he hadn't thrown one pro pitch after getting drafted out of college.

Can we at least see a guy compete vs. professionals before we rave about his professional potential?

Some prospects get a little too overhyped (Miguel Bleis, Gilberto Jiminez, Antoni Flores, etc).