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Anyone connected to the Boston Red Sox in some capacity wanted Jarren Duran to return to his All-Star, MVP-vote-getting 2024 form when the 2025 season began. So far, about a quarter of the way through the season, we’ve all been left wanting much, much more. Sure, I’ll give you that Duran hit a two-run home run in Saturday’s come-from-behind win against the Braves. Does that inspire confidence in him moving forward, though? Maybe a bit, but he has to go on an extended run offensively for there to be any real belief that the changes are effective.
As Maddie Landis wrote last week, Duran has altered his batting stance in a way that is likely contributing to his downward-trending offensive performance this season. Duran has always been a tinkerer, and he’s recently re-added the leg kick that helped him find his power last season, so there’s a reason for optimism, but the bigger Duran problem for the Red Sox is actually his defense.
Last year, Duran was an All-Star left fielder because of his range of contributions on both sides of the ball. This year, though, his defense has taken a significant step backwards. He leads all Boston outfielders with three errors, his range has taken a significant nosedive, and his arm value (via Baseball Savant) went from a scorching-hot 86th percentile to an ice-cold 25th. On top of leading all outfielders in errors, Duran also has the lowest outs above average of all the outfielders at negative two. His expected catch percentage is sitting at 88%, but his actual catch percentage is two percent lower at 86%. The last time he had a lower actual catch percentage than his expected percentage was 2022, the lowest point of his career. I’m not trying to equate that season to this season, as he’s proven since then that he’s a far better player, but it’s notable.
What stands out though, is the amount of balls he hasn’t caught that have high catch probabilities. If we look at his responsible plays for 2025, we see a worrying trend.
I’ve added the yellow highlights to the chart to show where Duran had a 99% chance of catching the ball and the play wasn’t made. So far, it’s only five plays, but that's still five plays where Duran should be expected to make the play every single time and he failed. Combine this with his range nosedive, and it’s not an out-there assumption to make that we’re seeing him lose a step on defense. It’s likely that soon we won’t be able to see him make up for bad routes to balls with his incredible speed.
We need to remember that Duran is 28 years old — he’s the oldest member of the ‘young core’ of the team. He and Rafael Devers are the same age, even though it seems like Devers should be far older. If the goal is actually to get younger across the diamond, and that seems to be the initiative the front office is chasing, then it makes us (or at least me) wonder about Duran’s future in Boston.
I don’t think he should be benched, yet. Let’s give him time to get readjusted to his added leg kick and try to figure things out defensively. I’ll stand by my take that I think Duran needs to be traded. Even with a down year, he will bring in a bigger haul than anyone not named Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer. I don’t foresee that happening until the offseason though. So, for now, Duran needs to get back to making good jumps and covering lots of ground with his speed, lest he be relegated to being a bench piece when Roman Anthony finally gets the call up to the major league team.
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