A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[drewski6]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know about crazy eyes stats, but I can find an angry lizard stat. He's 2nd in MLB in BsR the past three seasons. That has a lot of value for a team that wants to put pressure on the opposition. 

 

Im not pitching inside to Duran.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not pitching inside to Duran.

Down and in, no. Otherwise, sure. 

[Duran Is The Man]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

BsR (Base Running Runs Above Average): Number of runs above or below average a player has been worth on the bases, based on stolen bases, caught stealing, extra bases taken, outs on the bases, and avoiding double plays. It is the combination of wSB, UBR, and wGDP.

Holy acronyms Batman!

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Down and in, no. Otherwise, sure. 

I dont want to plunk him and find myself running for my life.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont want to plunk him and find myself running for my life.

He's been hit 15 times since the start of '23. That's slightly above average. I don't remember him trying to square off with a pitcher, just fans. 

[dgalehouse]

Attention please:  The driver will now slow down the bandwagon long enough for all of the Fenway (un) faithful, Nervous Nellies, wannabe deadline sellers and fickle minded, sky is falling, gloom and doomers to be able to climb back on board. 

[dannycater]

Just now, dgalehouse said:

Attention please:  The driver will now slow down the bandwagon long enough for all of the Fenway (un) faithful, Nervous Nellies, wannabe deadline sellers and fickle minded, sky is falling, gloom and doomers to be able to climb back on board. 

hey, I'm the first to admit I was gloom/doom after Devers deal...right now, the Sox are playing inspired baseball, but I think Anthony, Mayer, Romy, Story, Duran, and especially Rafaela are all swinging the stick in clutch situations and extending innings...the pitching is clicking instead of just a Crochet quality start--lot of things going Sox way. It's how you put together a 7-game win streak--I don't look at opponents, I look at wins. Go Sox

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

Let me know if you need some restaurant recommendations for NYC. 

Thanks, but we've been there many times, and our daughter has the skinny.

[moonslav59]

We gotta just keeping this one game at a time.

No swollen heads.

[moonslav59]

18 hours ago, cp176 said:

Enjoy your visit up here.

Thanks, cp.

This will be my first summer in Maine without my parents. Both passed away in the last 6 months at ages 97 and 87.

It's going to be strange and sad, but many siblings will be there (3 of my 5 sisters.)

[iortiz]

And all of the sudden the current IF on paper should be elite at D and one of the best in MLB moving forward with Bregman (3B), Story (SS), Mayer (2B), and Narvaéz (C). The only average spot is at 1B with Toro and Rommy but should be good enough to keep giving infantil errors. 

[Hitch]

I must have watched that Rafaela walk off twenty times. It;s a game we should have (and would have 2 weeks ago) lost.

O'Brien nailed the call, and the atmosphere was like a play off game. 

Take one of these last two games now and we're in a great place all of a sudden. The All Star break is coming just at the wrong time for us.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I must have watched that Rafaela walk off twenty times. It;s a game we should have (and would have 2 weeks ago) lost.

O'Brien nailed the call, and the atmosphere was like a play off game. 

Take one of these last two games now and we're in a great place all of a sudden. The All Star break is coming just at the wrong time for us.

:"....HE KILLED IT...."

awesome!

[harmony]

On 7/10/2025 at 9:47 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm off to Maine, tomorrow. Taking 6 days to drive with a stop for whitewater rafting in WV and 2 nights in NYC with our daughter. You may see a mix n match of my alter ego and moonslav.

Glad we'll be on the road during the ASB.

Leaving just when the Sox took over the last WC slot from SEA.

Baseball Reference now gives the Red Sox a 54 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while giving the Seattle Mariners a 52.1 percent chance:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2025.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2025.shtml

FanGraphs has the Red Sox at 44.4 percent and the Mariners at 61.6 percent:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, harmony said:

Baseball Reference now gives the Red Sox a 54 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while giving the Seattle Mariners a 52.1 percent chance:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2025.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2025.shtml

FanGraphs has the Red Sox at 44.4 percent and the Mariners at 61.6 percent:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Amazing what an 8 game stretch can do.

[Maxbialystock]

Just a reminder that I saw this team's potential after Devers left before anyone else.  My biggest point was that Devers left when our best hitter and best player, Bregman, was on the IL, so that was a double whammy to the lineup.  Nevertheless, I reminded everyone that both Rafaela and Story were hitting better--and they still are--and that bringing up Mayer and Anthony was a positive.   

Now with both Bregman and Yoshida back, the Sox are knee deep in hitters, so much so that against a righty last night Anthony didn't start.  

I also said the defense was better than those errors. 

Plus the rotation was looking better.

By no means did I ever think the Sox would win 8 straight, especially the last 2 games, both by 1 run, against a good Rays team.  

Nor did I think Rafaela would go completely ape at the plate.  His July OPS is 1.370.  Batting 9th he has 13 rbi's in 9 games. 

Nor did I think the bullpen was capable of what they pulled off last night.  

I scoff at all the "good vibes" talk, but am having to rethink that.  It's even possible it was made better by the absence of Devers.  

One last thought.  I love the acquisition this year of Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, and Narvaez, but I also think there's a bunch of talent that comes from the much maligned Chaim Bloom era:  Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Story, Yoshida, Mayer, Anthony, Bello, Dobbins, Whitlock, Wong, Refsnyder, 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Just a reminder that I saw this team's potential after Devers left before anyone else.  My biggest point was that Devers left when our best hitter and best player, Bregman, was on the IL, so that was a double whammy to the lineup.  Nevertheless, I reminded everyone that both Rafaela and Story were hitting better--and they still are--and that bringing up Mayer and Anthony was a positive.   

Now with both Bregman and Yoshida back, the Sox are knee deep in hitters, so much so that against a righty last night Anthony didn't start.  

I also said the defense was better than those errors. 

Plus the rotation was looking better.

By no means did I ever think the Sox would win 8 straight, especially the last 2 games, both by 1 run, against a good Rays team.  

Nor did I think Rafaela would go completely ape at the plate.  His July OPS is 1.370.  Batting 9th he has 13 rbi's in 9 games. 

Nor did I think the bullpen was capable of what they pulled off last night.  

I scoff at all the "good vibes" talk, but am having to rethink that.  It's even possible it was made better by the absence of Devers.  

One last thought.  I love the acquisition this year of Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, and Narvaez, but I also think there's a bunch of talent that comes from the much maligned Chaim Bloom era:  Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Story, Yoshida, Mayer, Anthony, Bello, Dobbins, Whitlock, Wong, Refsnyder, 

credit where credit is due: Breslow did a nice job of getting Crochet, Bregman, Chapman and Varvaez though I think the jury is still out on Dobbins. Bloom did good with Abreu, Mayer, Whitlock, Ref and Roman Anthony though his signings of Story and Yoshida have been wide regarded as awful. though Story seems to possibly be on the road to redemption. and Masa may be as well. time will tell. and just to be clear, Duran, Rafaela, and Bello were signed by Dombrowski.

[dgalehouse]

Not good news on Dobbins. Torn ACL.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Not good news on Dobbins. Torn ACL.

Terrible news indeed.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

credit where credit is due: Breslow did a nice job of getting Crochet, Bregman, Chapman and Varvaez though I think the jury is still out on Dobbins. Bloom did good with Abreu, Mayer, Whitlock, Ref and Roman Anthony though his signings of Story and Yoshida have been wide regarded as awful. though Story seems to possibly be on the road to redemption. and Masa may be as well. time will tell. and just to be clear, Duran, Rafaela, and Bello were signed by Dombrowski.

Thanks for the corrections on Duran, Rafaela, and Bello!!

[sk7326]

4 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Just a reminder that I saw this team's potential after Devers left before anyone else.  My biggest point was that Devers left when our best hitter and best player, Bregman, was on the IL, so that was a double whammy to the lineup.  Nevertheless, I reminded everyone that both Rafaela and Story were hitting better--and they still are--and that bringing up Mayer and Anthony was a positive.   

Now with both Bregman and Yoshida back, the Sox are knee deep in hitters, so much so that against a righty last night Anthony didn't start.  

I also said the defense was better than those errors. 

Plus the rotation was looking better.

By no means did I ever think the Sox would win 8 straight, especially the last 2 games, both by 1 run, against a good Rays team.  

Nor did I think Rafaela would go completely ape at the plate.  His July OPS is 1.370.  Batting 9th he has 13 rbi's in 9 games. 

Nor did I think the bullpen was capable of what they pulled off last night.  

I scoff at all the "good vibes" talk, but am having to rethink that.  It's even possible it was made better by the absence of Devers.  

One last thought.  I love the acquisition this year of Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, and Narvaez, but I also think there's a bunch of talent that comes from the much maligned Chaim Bloom era:  Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Story, Yoshida, Mayer, Anthony, Bello, Dobbins, Whitlock, Wong, Refsnyder, 

The first 6 were against hot garbage opponents, but credit where it's due - the Sox won those games decisively - which was not happening earlier in the season.  

[sk7326]

8 hours ago, Hitch said:

I must have watched that Rafaela walk off twenty times. It;s a game we should have (and would have 2 weeks ago) lost.

O'Brien nailed the call, and the atmosphere was like a play off game. 

Take one of these last two games now and we're in a great place all of a sudden. The All Star break is coming just at the wrong time for us.

After his record setting shortest walk off homer ever, nice to see Ceddane get to hit a no doubter. 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Not good news on Dobbins. Torn ACL.

too bad they traded Quinn Priester for a guy hitting .206 in A ball and an A ball pitcher that may or may not ever make it anywhere. the Brewers are still laughing at Bres over that one.

[sk7326]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

too bad they traded Quinn Priester for a guy hitting .206 in A ball and an A ball pitcher that may or may not ever make it anywhere. the Brewers are still laughing at Bres over that one.

It would be nice to have Priester for sure.  The draft pick was probably the prize of the trade - so we'll see there.

The .206 kid in A-Ball is less damning than it seems - given how young he is for that level, and at least by the stat line some good swing decisions.  But it'd be nice if he showed more.  

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

It would be nice to have Priester for sure.  The draft pick was probably the prize of the trade - so we'll see there.

The .206 kid in A-Ball is less damning than it seems - given how young he is for that level, and at least by the stat line some good swing decisions.  But it'd be nice if he showed more.  

yeah, maybe.......the thing is, they do absolutely nothing for us now. Priester could be used RIGHT NOW.

[Hugh2]

We literally just won 9 games in a row and we are still finding things to complain about.  
 

Sox looking like the best team in baseball lately.

[Larry Cook]

This team is really hot right now!! The pitching is outstanding and the offense helping out with timely hits!!! 
 

Hats off to bres-slow and Cora for turning a collection of athletes into a team!!!?

[Hugh2]

On 7/11/2025 at 9:31 AM, drewski6 said:

Well, the thought process was that you lean on a single ace very heavily in a postseason.  And you NEED that. A second ace is great but not a capitalized "need" to get THROUGH the playoffs.  But of course, Ryan, would immensely help as a #2.  In a normal WS run, your #1 starter starts 6-7 games (and closes a couple), your #2 starter pitches an average of 4, your #3 an average of 3, your #4 gets like one spot but is used in relief.

So your bumping one of Bello or Gio. But gaining that person as a reliever.  You are also providing insurance because dead in the water with a Crochet injury as currently constructed, but not dead - dead if you have Ryan as backup ace.  Also, cant assume we'll get there, and Ryan helps tremendously with that (making the playoffs)

But I honestly believe that there is something non-quantifiable that Duran brings with his crazy eyes.  If someone with DUrans intensity is starting you down, you cant help but be scared.

And I think they can find a way to work in all 6 OFers. Maybe one plays a little first base, maybe theres some platoons.  But rosters expand in september and you can carry 5 bench players in playoffs (since your 4 and 5 starters essentially become relievers)

And im wondering if we flip KC for Ryan , keep our awesome OF, let our awesome OF overflow occupy DH roles and maybe even some 1B. Plus you pinch hit more in playoffs, so deep bench is a good thing.  Maybe we keep all six stud OFers and flip KC for Ryan is the thought I woke up with.

I don’t see how Gio or Bello gets bumped

Crochett

hypothetical Ace 

Gio

Bello

I don’t care who you put here.

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

On 7/12/2025 at 12:51 AM, moonslav59 said:

Thanks, cp.

This will be my first summer in Maine without my parents. Both passed away in the last 6 months at ages 97 and 87.

It's going to be strange and sad, but many siblings will be there (3 of my 5 sisters.)

I hope you have a great summer in Maine, Moon, but try to avoid visiting Salem's Lot.

[Soxlover]

I’m white water rafting in WV today.