A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I read earlier (but can now not find while on my phone), that you lose eligibility for rookie of the year if you're called up after a certain date (end of May). Red Sox Stats hinted at it on twitter, also. Unless there's assumptions that the catch up to win would be too great.

Anthony and Mayer will still be rookie eligible next year under the wild development that they aren't called up until 45 days from the end. Not even the Sox are that insane.

Interesting as I'm not aware of any rookie being ineligible for the award. I tried searching, but came up empty. 

Maybe he's confused about this wording concerning pre-arb bonus payments for the ROY and super two players? IDK. There wasn't anything in the CBA that limited a rookie's ability to be voted for ROY from what I read. (This could be outlined in some other document of course.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, notin said:

I think those higher arbitration costs are why many players don’t last 6 years…

Just seems like a lot of stress over maintaining control of 99% of a workforce that won't even be working for the same company six years later. 

The Sox should worry more about the one guy who stayed, and they're obligated to pay $30 million a year through 2033.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If only we could use 2 DH's!

We should have traded Casas, started Devers at 1B and had the DH role open for Refsnyder/??? until Yoshida was ready.

[Nick]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We should have traded Casas, started Devers at 1B and had the DH role open for Refsnyder/??? until Yoshida was ready.

We do not have our organization's best 13 position players on our roster right now. I hope we can win with one hand tied behind our back.

[Old Red]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We should have traded Casas, started Devers at 1B and had the DH role open for Refsnyder/??? until Yoshida was ready.

Until Masa was ready? Masa was ready to DH in ST' or was I imagining that Masa got 35 AB? Masa would have opened the season just as he did last season as the Red Sox DH, but Raffy was DEMOTED to that position! so Masa just hangs out, and collects his $18M playing catch. Roster Construction at its best.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Until Masa was ready. Masa was ready to DH in ST' or was I imagining that Masa got 35 AB. Masa would have opened the season just as he did last season as the Red Sox DH, but Raffy was DEMOTED to that position! so Masa just hangs out, and collects his $18M playing catch. Roster Construction at its best.

Putting demoted in caps does not do anything.

Devers may see it as you do, but so what?

I'm not sure why Yoshida has not been playing in AAA or AA, if he was ready to DH.

He did DH in ST'ing, so that is weird. If he was ready on opening day, we'd have needed Devers ready to play 1B, that doy, too, but these guys were too slow to even ask him to try it.

Plus, Casas was not traded, so it's all just speculation.

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Putting demoted in caps does not do anything.

Devers may see it as you do, but so what?

I'm not sure why Yoshida has not been playing in AAA or AA, if he was ready to DH.

He did DH in ST'ing, so that is weird. If he was ready on opening day, we'd have needed Devers ready to play 1B, that doy, too, but these guys were too slow to even ask him to try it.

Plus, Casas was not traded, so it's all just speculation.

Putting DEMOTED as is is calling it as it is. Just like Masa was demoted to DH last year, which he probably didn’t like, but everyone is different, and might of handled things differently, or better. So what if Devers sees it as a demotion? Well if it affects his psyche, which affects his play, and I don’t know if it does, but that would be a BIG deal. Why Masa isn’t playing at Woo could be just some kind of paperwork manipulating I don’t know.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Putting DEMOTED as is is calling it as it is. Just like Masa was demoted to DH last year, which he probably didn’t like, but everyone is different, and might of handled things differently, or better. So what if Devers sees it as a demotion? Well if it affects his psyche, which affects his play, and I don’t know if it does, but that would be a BIG deal. Why Masa isn’t playing at Woo could be just some kind of paperwork manipulating I don’t know.

He has options, so there is no reason to keep him from playing that I know of.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He has options, so there is no reason to keep him from playing that I know of.

He was able to play in ST, so there has to be some kind of technicality that he isn’t, and if there isn’t it’s a head scratcher.

[moonslav59]

Farm OPS Leaders 50+ ABs

1.034 Anthony AAA

.993 Toro AAA

.870 Jh Garcia AA

.867 Anderson A-

.848 Romero AA

.844 Encarnacion A-

.852 Grissom AAA

.805 Arias A-

.802 Eaton AAA

39+ ABs

.895 Liendo AA

.857 Y Rod A+

.839 Taylor A+

.834 Alcantara A+

 

OPS Against 9+ IP

.230 Clarke

.272 Early

.431 McShane

.485 Stock

.489 Drohan & Brooks

.490 Cellucci

.506 Burdi

.526 Mullins

.536 Mills

.541 Aita

.568 Paez

.584 Rogers

.602 Sansone

.620 Ingrassia

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

He was able to play in ST, so there has to be some kind of technicality that he isn’t, and if there isn’t it’s a head scratcher.

Found this...

Masataka Yoshida, who began the season on the IL after a right shoulder labral repair during the offseason, is rehabbing in Fort Myers.

 

Asked if Yoshida is near a rehab assignment, Cora said, “No, not yet.”

 

 

Yoshida was able to hit during spring training, going 10-for-35 (.286). But he still is working on his throwing progression and won’t return until he’s able to make throws from the outfield.

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

 

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe they know Yoshi is not going to DH, since Devers will DH 155-160 games, so work on throwing.

He must also be taking batting practice.

Rosenthal's 2 cents:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-insider-delivers-bad-news-for-red-sox-masataka-yoshida-future/

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Found this...

Masataka Yoshida, who began the season on the IL after a right shoulder labral repair during the offseason, is rehabbing in Fort Myers.

 

Asked if Yoshida is near a rehab assignment, Cora said, “No, not yet.”

 

 

Yoshida was able to hit during spring training, going 10-for-35 (.286). But he still is working on his throwing progression and won’t return until he’s able to make throws from the outfield.

 

So he can’t hit now, because he can throw good enough.

[Larry Cook]

Somebody posted somewhere that when Hamilton and/or sabol play, our record is miserable!!!! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

So he can’t hit now, because he can throw good enough.

Huh?

[notin]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Somebody posted somewhere that when Hamilton and/or sabol play, our record is miserable!!!! 

The Sox are 2-9 in games where either Hamilton or Sabol start, including 0-1 when both start…

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

So he can’t hit now, because he can throw good enough.

He can’t hit now because he can’t throw well enough to play LF and because he simply doesn’t hit enough to supplant Devers at DH…

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Putting demoted in caps does not do anything.

Devers may see it as you do, but so what?

I'm not sure why Yoshida has not been playing in AAA or AA, if he was ready to DH.

He did DH in ST'ing, so that is weird. If he was ready on opening day, we'd have needed Devers ready to play 1B, that doy, too, but these guys were too slow to even ask him to try it.

Plus, Casas was not traded, so it's all just speculation.

Masa is not DHing in Worcester because Roman Anthony has a sore shoulder and is occupying that slot.

But Yoshida does have three options left, so he could be demoted…

[jdc69]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We should have traded Casas, started Devers at 1B and had the DH role open for Refsnyder/??? until Yoshida was ready.

I concur. Getting Bregman or some kind of talented RHB was crucial but to put the face of the franchise as DH when he was supposedly promised 3rd base for his career, though by a previous administration, is not nothing. Bregman and Cora being old chums from Astros may not be nothing either. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Masa is not DHing in Worcester because Roman Anthony has a sore shoulder and is occupying that slot.

But Yoshida does have three options left, so he could be demoted…

Anthony has not DH'd every game at Woo, and what about Portland, Greenville, Salem...?

He can't DH and still work on throwing in between ABs or before or after games?

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I concur. Getting Bregman or some kind of talented RHB was crucial but to put the face of the franchise as DH when he was supposedly promised 3rd base for his career, though by a previous administration, is not nothing. Bregman and Cora being old chums from Astros may not be nothing either. 

Who said it was nothing or near nothing?

We all know it really upset Devers, and there were valid reasons for being upset.

That doesn't mean it wasn't the right choice for the team.

Was Story "DEMOTED" to 2B, so an inferior defensive SS could stay at SS? That choice was done by the same guy who made the promises to Devers. 

I'll take the new guy doing what's best for the team, and I hope Devers comes to realize that. If Devers wants to play in the field, then all he has to do is play 1B better than the worst defender in MLB.

 

[Hitch]

13 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Interesting as I'm not aware of any rookie being ineligible for the award. I tried searching, but came up empty. 

Maybe he's confused about this wording concerning pre-arb bonus payments for the ROY and super two players? IDK. There wasn't anything in the CBA that limited a rookie's ability to be voted for ROY from what I read. (This could be outlined in some other document of course.)

I've found the quote I saw - 

With those circumstances in mind, NESN's Keagan Stiefel made a prediction on Friday: Anthony won't be up in the majors until late May at the earliest.

"The club would lose a year on his arbitration if the 20-year-old won 2025 American League Rookie of the Year," Stiefel wrote. "It’s not exactly crazy to think Anthony would be in contention if promoted, so the smartest thing to do in their current state is to wait things out — for that reason, and a few more.

"It’s extremely unlikely that he debuts anytime soon, so just keep those thoughts on standby until Anthony falls out of contention for individual awards and back into contention for the call. It’s looking like late May or early June, folks."

 

And this was the corresponding tweet from Stats. 

Like you I can't find anything that suggests there is a hard deadline to fall out of contention for the award, and so maybe Stiefel is making the assumption that being called up that late just automatically leaves you with too much to do. But then, I'm not sure why Stats is quite sure on the 60 game point either. I believe Anthony still has time to stay down to make sure we don't burn a year, but not 60 (well 50 odd now) games...

Weird. It's the kind of rule you'd think would be laid out in very black and white terms to avoid confusion. 

[jdc69]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Who said it was nothing or near nothing?

We all know it really upset Devers, and there were valid reasons for being upset.

That doesn't mean it wasn't the right choice for the team.

Was Story "DEMOTED" to 2B, so an inferior defensive SS could stay at SS? That choice was done by the same guy who made the promises to Devers. 

I'll take the new guy doing what's best for the team, and I hope Devers comes to realize that. If Devers wants to play in the field, then all he has to do is play 1B better than the worst defender in MLB.

 

Was that Bogearts you are talking about concerning Story? I stopped paying attention during Covid, I've just started paying attention again. I also remember they put Bogaerts on 3rd for awhile but he demanded SS, but I digress.

Yes a team should do whats best for the team and as I said Bregman is good for the team. At the same time, they aren't actual gears for some machine, loyalty is also good for a team and if you go too far without it you will lose your team. I'm more looking at how Devers goes to DH instead of 1st. I may be off base and Devers may want 3rd and nothing else but if that's not true, why is the more unproductive, unproven, more rookie player not at DH, Casas, instead of the player who has been your best player and wants to play on the field? That's how I agreed with your previous post, two posts ago. I'm saying they haven't done a good job at figuring out the Casas/Devers/Yoshida conundrum and agree they shouldve traded Casas in the off-season.

 

[Bellhorn04]

5 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Yes a team should do whats best for the team and as I said Bregman is good for the team. At the same time, they aren't actual gears for some machine, loyalty is also good for a team and if you go too far without it you will lose your team. I'm more looking at how Devers goes to DH instead of 1st. I may be off base and Devers may want 3rd and nothing else but if that's not true, why is the more unproductive, unproven, more rookie player not at DH, Casas, instead of the player who has been your best player and wants to play on the field? That's how I agreed with your previous post, two posts ago. I'm saying they haven't done a good job at figuring out the Casas/Devers/Yoshida conundrum and agree they shouldve traded Casas in the off-season.

 

But it's easy for us to say that from our armchairs, no?

In the Seattle series Casas had 2 homers, 6 RBI and 3 walks.  Maybe he's about to get hot.  And if he does a lot of the talk about moving him will go away...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I've found the quote I saw - 

With those circumstances in mind, NESN's Keagan Stiefel made a prediction on Friday: Anthony won't be up in the majors until late May at the earliest.

"The club would lose a year on his arbitration if the 20-year-old won 2025 American League Rookie of the Year," Stiefel wrote. "It’s not exactly crazy to think Anthony would be in contention if promoted, so the smartest thing to do in their current state is to wait things out — for that reason, and a few more.

"It’s extremely unlikely that he debuts anytime soon, so just keep those thoughts on standby until Anthony falls out of contention for individual awards and back into contention for the call. It’s looking like late May or early June, folks."

 

And this was the corresponding tweet from Stats. 

Like you I can't find anything that suggests there is a hard deadline to fall out of contention for the award, and so maybe Stiefel is making the assumption that being called up that late just automatically leaves you with too much to do. But then, I'm not sure why Stats is quite sure on the 60 game point either. I believe Anthony still has time to stay down to make sure we don't burn a year, but not 60 (well 50 odd now) games...

Weird. It's the kind of rule you'd think would be laid out in very black and white terms to avoid confusion. 

Maybe sportswriters are getting confused now that the Rookie of the Year gets credited with a year of service time. But there are no specifics for Rookie of the Year eligibility except having rookie eligibility. From MLB.com:

"A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons):

• 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.
• 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).

A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists."

This kind of reminds me of when Manny was traded to LA in '08, went off for two months, and finished 4th in NL MVP. He only played 53 games for the Dodgers. That same summer CC Sabathia was traded to Milwaukee. He started 17 games for the Brewers and finished 5th in NL Cy Young and 6th in MVP.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks, Hitch, for digging up these quotes. They're enough to make at least one Red Sox fan dizzy.

"The club would lose a year on his arbitration if the 20-year-old won 2025 American League Rookie of the Year," Stiefel wrote. "It’s not exactly crazy to think Anthony would be in contention if promoted, so the smartest thing to do in their current state is to wait things out..."

Right -- better not bring up Anthony too soon because he might be too good. Is that really the smartest thing?

As for the guy on Red Sox Stats who boils it down to: "is Anthony in Boston for the next 60 games worth potentially losing his age-27 season?" -- he should pose this question to owners John Henry and Tom Werner (who are a combined 150 years old).

Do the senior owners feel the Sox should do everything possible to win this season or worry more about six years from now, when 99% of their current players will either be playing for another city, fired, or retired?

They certainly care about payroll, but what's the value to the franchise of winning another championship?

 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Thanks, Hitch, for digging up these quotes. They're enough to make at least one Red Sox fan dizzy.

"The club would lose a year on his arbitration if the 20-year-old won 2025 American League Rookie of the Year," Stiefel wrote. "It’s not exactly crazy to think Anthony would be in contention if promoted, so the smartest thing to do in their current state is to wait things out..."

Right -- better not bring up Anthony too soon because he might be too good. Is that really the smartest thing?

As for the guy on Red Sox Stats who boils it down to: "is Anthony in Boston for the next 60 games worth potentially losing his age-27 season?" -- he should pose this question to owners John Henry and Tom Werner (who are a combined 150 years old).

Do the senior owners feel the Sox should do everything possible to win this season or worry more about six years from now, when 99% of their current players will either be playing for another city, fired, or retired?

They certainly care about payroll, but what's the value to the franchise of winning another championship?

 

There has to be some way the guys who run baseball could figure out how to remove this disincentive to promoting a potentially big talent.

They're supposed to be trying to please the fans, after all - growing the game, making more money, that kind of thing we usually think of as a good thing...

[notin]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anthony has not DH'd every game at Woo, and what about Portland, Greenville, Salem...?

He can't DH and still work on throwing in between ABs or before or after games?

Don’t tell me.  Tell Cora and Breslow.

Or maybe they could let him sit until his shoulder feels better…

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe sportswriters are getting confused now that the Rookie of the Year gets credited with a year of service time. But there are no specifics for Rookie of the Year eligibility except having rookie eligibility. From MLB.com:

"A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons):

• 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.
• 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).

A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists."

This kind of reminds me of when Manny was traded to LA in '08, went off for two months, and finished 4th in NL MVP. He only played 53 games for the Dodgers. That same summer CC Sabathia was traded to Milwaukee. He started 17 games for the Brewers and finished 5th in NL Cy Young and 6th in MVP.

1984 Rick Sutcliffe.  Traded from Cleveland to the Cubs on June 13th.  Made 20 starts for Chicago and won the NL Cy Young award and came in 4th in NL MVP voting.

 

Im still confused about Luis Gil.  Currently he has 2.073 years of  service time, which is a lot (too much?) for last year’s Rookie of the Year winner.  He pitched 7 MLB games from 2021-2023.  Did he just accumulate 172 days on the roster while pitching those 7 games?  And if so, why was he still eligible for ROY in 2024?

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Don’t tell me.  Tell Cora and Breslow.

Or maybe they could let him sit until his shoulder feels better…

They already know that. Masa could have been the DH in Boston on game 1, but it seems that spot has been taken now. Masa could have been DH anywhere else on game  1. Anthony had Nothing to do with Masa not DH anywhere else. You’re right he’s just sitting things out collecting his $18M until the Red Sox find a place for him.