A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Devers's numbers are looking much healthier now.  His bWAR is at 0.5.  Not bad considering how he started.

😶

I did some research and the Chicago Manual of Style changed how they treat this in 2010. Why would they do this and not let me know? 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, his numbers this season are eerily similar......

7/19-8/26: 359/522

8/30-9/20: 262/178

3/27-4/27: 350/396

Not seeing the similarities TBH

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, his numbers this season are eerily similar......

Sept/24 OPS .496

2025 OPS .747

Don't have to be a Polly to think things are looking up now.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sept/24 OPS .496

2025 OPS .747

Don't have to be a Polly to think things are looking up now.

Post AS break 2024 - .240 with a .727 OPS

2025 - .216 with a .747 OPS

one doesn't need glasses to see the similarity.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

7/19-8/26: 359/522

8/30-9/20: 262/178

3/27-4/27: 350/396

Not seeing the similarities TBH

This is not similar?

Post AS break 2024 - .240 with a .727 OPS

2025 - .216 with a .747 OPS

[mvp 78]

Just now, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

This is not similar?

Post AS break 2024 - .240 with a .727 OPS

2025 - .216 with a .747 OPS

Why are you arbitrarily picking the ASB? It makes no sense. Use the incident that actually caused the decrease in production and when it forced him to miss three straight games at the end of AUG. 

You are saying "he's been bad since the ASB" but I have proven otherwise. I'm sure you could work a time period to get the OPS to be dead on if you wanted! 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sept/24 OPS .496

2025 OPS .747

Don't have to be a Polly to think things are looking up now.

September was really bad and he should have sat out. The beginning of the season was scary. He was struggling a little bit after the STL series, but his body language wasn't the concerning type we've seen like in September or March/early April. I think he's feeling better and believes he can get back to it. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why are you arbitrarily picking the ASB? It makes no sense. Use the incident that actually caused the decrease in production and when it forced him to miss three straight games at the end of AUG. 

You are saying "he's been bad since the ASB" but I have proven otherwise. I'm sure you could work a time period to get the OPS to be dead on if you wanted! 

Because a half season is a reasonable time frame and, again, his present numbers are very similar.

Hence why I posed the point that this may be his new normal.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Because a half season is a reasonable time frame and, again, his present numbers are very similar.

Hence why I posed the point that this may be his new normal.

Well, if you want HALF of a season.

1st half of his PA's (300): 913 OPS

2nd half of is PA's (301): 829 OPS

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The "foreseeable future," if that was the term used, ended when the guy who said it was replaced.

He signed the deal in January 2023, so he got too play too more years at 3B that he should have.

When the Red Sox signed Raffy to that deal in 2023 do you think they were paying Raffy $30M/yr to be a DH, or to be a DH anytime soon?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, if you want HALF of a season.

1st half of his PA's (300): 913 OPS

2nd half of is PA's (301): 829 OPS

Ok, you keep hanging on to that.

Bottom line is that his numbers last year post AS break are very similar to his performance thus far this season. 

Spin it how you like.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Ok, you keep hanging on to that.

Bottom line is that his numbers last year post AS break are very similar to his performance thus far this season. 

Spin it how you like.

You wanted half a season. I gave you half a season. Split it down the middle like Solomon's baby. Not good enough? 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

You wanted half a season. I gave you half a season. Split it down the middle like Solomon's baby. Not good enough? 

Nope, baseball seasons have been divided into two halves, pre & post AS break, for almost a century.

Are you new to baseball?

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Nope, baseball seasons have been divided into two halves, pre & post AS break, for almost a century.

Are you new to baseball?

Sure, people use pre and post ASB but it doesn't necessarily make sense, because it's not actual halves.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure, people use pre and post ASB but it doesn't necessarily make sense, because it's not actual halves.

It's an arbitrary marker that makes no sense in terms of Devers's production when you look at the game logs. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure, people use pre and post ASB but it doesn't necessarily make sense, because it's not actual halves.

Again, it's been that way for almost a century.

I'm not trying to rewrite history or change traditions.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, it's been that way for almost a century.

I'm not trying to rewrite history or change traditions.

It's not really anything official.  Some people mean first 81 games/second 81 games when they talk about halves.  And they're not wrong.  81 is in fact half of 162.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure, people use pre and post ASB but it doesn't necessarily make sense, because it's not actual halves.

And if you add his post ASG to the games he has played this season, it comes out to more than half a season.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You wanted half a season. I gave you half a season. Split it down the middle like Solomon's baby. Not good enough? 

I seem to recall that baby not being split, and the mothers agreed the first would care for him BEFORE the All Star break, while the second cared for him after the ASB.  But this isn’t Bible study…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

I seem to recall that baby not being split, and the mothers agreed the first would care for him BEFORE the All Star break, while the second cared for him after the ASB.  But this isn’t Bible study…

No, you have it wrong. Solomon wanted it split right at the belly. The moms wanted it split right down the sternum. Solomon, being so wise, realized that the first half of the season is 81 games, not 95 and decided the matter was all too silly and just had the moms race an anthropomorphized manna to see who (or what) would win the baby. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, his numbers this season are eerily similar......

They are also eerily similar to other recent April struggles.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Ok, you keep hanging on to that.

Bottom line is that his numbers last year post AS break are very similar to his performance thus far this season. 

Spin it how you like.

Isn't arbitrarily picking post ASB spinning, too?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Isn't arbitrarily picking post ASB spinning, too?

No, again, it represents roughly have a season when you add his post ASG games to his games played this season,

Smh..... 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They are also eerily similar to other recent April struggles.

That may very well be.

But did those other April struggles follow a 2nd half of a season where he also struggled?

[Nick]

At what point do you say enough is enough? What good is it for Mayer to spend more time in AAA?

He had a hot spring training. Very slow start at AAA. Now he's become a hitting machine. He certainly can play 2B well enough and also give Story and Bregman some days off to keep them fresh.

Sure his bat can cool. So what? It's no different than injured major leaguers going on a rehab assignment. No one pays attention to results. They just want to see Bello, as an example, get to the 5 inning level.

Mayer is ready. Hamilton has 2, count them, 2 stolen bases. Sure he maybe more valuable this week if we were in a world series and he had one specific job to do. But this is a regular season.

I know I've said Campbell should just stick to 2B. Hell move him to CF some. Get enough bats for Mayer.

He is wasting time in AAA. Does it matter if he goes 1-4 or 3-4? He's the same player in AAA. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Devers is healthy, this is one fan who won't ever say I'm ok with this batting approach, as long as he's productive. 

Because he won't be.

The first group of games this season he struck out almost every time up trying to yank. Then Raffy starting using the whole field and rocked. Then what happened? Did he get bored or did pitchers start throwing everything high and tight again -- because he started pulling his head again and not hitting what he couldn't see.

There's no way Red Sox fans since 2017 can honestly say that Raffy has always tried to pull 99% of the pitches he sees to Timbuktu. When he pulls his head, he swings and misses with the worst of them. When he keeps his head down and uses the gaps, he is a batting star.

For his career, on actual hits (via bb-ref), Raffy's batting average pulling the ball is .345. Up the middle is .367. Opposite field: .396.

This year, Devers' hit location: pull .353, middle .366, oppo .214.

Anyone see a discrepancy? Walker? Walker?

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

That may very well be.

But did those other April struggles follow a 2nd half of a season where he also struggled?

It all has to be looked at in the context of having shoulder injury issues last year.  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It all has to be looked at in the context of having shoulder injury issues last year.  

I'm not debating that at all.

I simply wondered if this may be his new normal since the injury. Shoulders are tricky.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

No, again, it represents roughly have a season when you add his post ASG games to his games played this season,

Smh..... 

It's still arbitrary and of no more significance than a 60, 100, 160 sample size.

It just happens to show his worst possible numbers, and that is why you chose it. If   

his struggles began 60 games ago, you'd be using that.

Again, maybe last year,s post ASB woes are related to this year's slow start- maybe not.

Maybe he has already began to come out of it- maybe not.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

That may very well be.

But did those other April struggles follow a 2nd half of a season where he also struggled?

Yes. Why would that matter?

We don't know if the two struggling time frames are based on the same cause(s.)

They may- they may not. You seem to think they are- fine. It still doesn't mean this is going to be who he is going forward.