Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Freddy Peralta?

 

Not so sure the $15mill contract is going to do it…

Not even close. I’m talking about a comp that someone got that is close to what some on here are talking about  that Cro Man should get.

[moonslav59]

Crochet did have a 164 ERA+ in 73 IP, before 2024.

Certainly, his career is a small sample size, and one could call him one step above a "suspect," but we gave up 2 of our top 8 prospects, including our two last top picks.

Either we believe in this guy or we don't.

Sure, wait a year. That's the easy hedge thing to say. If he does great, for get about JH affording what he asks for. Bye-bye. If he is decent, maybe we can talk similar type deals, as now. If he sucks, you guys can all throw it in my face. 

I'm all in on trying to lock this guy up before he's worth much more, but fully realizing I could be doubling down on a what could end up being a bad trade.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crochet did have a 164 ERA+ in 73 IP, before 2024.

Certainly, his career is a small sample size, and one could call him one step above a "suspect," but we gave up 2 of our top 8 prospects, including our two last top picks.

Either we believe in this guy or we don't.

Sure, wait a year. That's the easy hedge thing to say. If he does great, for get about JH affording what he asks for. Bye-bye. If he is decent, maybe we can talk similar type deals, as now. If he sucks, you guys can all throw it in my face. 

I'm all in on trying to lock this guy up before he's worth much more, but fully realizing I could be doubling down on a what could end up being a bad trade.

I ask you the question I did before. What’s the comp out there for someone his age, and lack of much of a resume to get a contract that you, an others are suggesting? I’m not for overpaying someone just because we gave up some high ranked suspects. Only time will tell on what was the right way to do this, and what Brez will end up doing. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I ask you the question I did before. What’s the comp out there for someone his age, and lack of much of a resume to get a contract that you, an others are suggesting? I’m not for overpaying someone just because we gave up some high ranked suspects. Only time will tell on what was the right way to do this, and what Brez will end up doing. 

Giving up 3 of our top 8 prospects is not "the reason" I want to extend him. That is just a symptom of just how much the Sox FO loves this guy. Hey, they could be wrong. The whole FO liked Yoshida a couple years back. Sure, different FO, but still can be fallible.

I'm not sure how many really good pitchers were poised to reach free agency at age 27, so finding comps only highlights how special this guy is, to me.

We extended Bello significantly earlier in the progression than Crochet is. He got $9.2M x 6, but that includes more arb years bout out. That's apples and oranges to Crochet, but they will pay him $19M in 2029 plus a $1M buy out on his $21M option in 2030. Bello did not have a season like Crochet, before we extended him, either.

Most of the early arb extensions given in MLB are to everyday players. I get the uniqueness of my suggested types of offers, but that age 27 keeps jumping out at me. He could still earn his contract, while missing a year or 1.5 years to injury, and be young enough to bounce back.

Strasburg was the same age as Crochet will be, but he's apples to oranges, too, since he had racked up several good years before signing, and he signed during his last arb year, not before his second to last one.

Maybe notin can help on this.

These deals all had more arb years left, and I'm not sure how many extra years were added on control, but other than Bello, there was...

$53M/6 Hunter Greene

$75M/6 Spencer Strider

Wander Franco is no shining example of large & long extensions during early arb years, but he got $182M/11.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Giving up 3 of our top 8 prospects is not "the reason" I want to extend him. That is just a symptom of just how much the Sox FO loves this guy. Hey, they could be wrong. The whole FO liked Yoshida a couple years back. Sure, different FO, but still can be fallible.

I'm not sure how many really good pitchers were poised to reach free agency at age 27, so finding comps only highlights how special this guy is, to me.

We extended Bello significantly earlier in the progression than Crochet is. He got $9.2M x 6, but that includes more arb years bout out. That's apples and oranges to Crochet, but they will pay him $19M in 2029 plus a $1M buy out on his $21M option in 2030. Bello did not have a season like Crochet, before we extended him, either.

Most of the early arb extensions given in MLB are to everyday players. I get the uniqueness of my suggested types of offers, but that age 27 keeps jumping out at me. He could still earn his contract, while missing a year or 1.5 years to injury, and be young enough to bounce back.

Strasburg was the same age as Crochet will be, but he's apples to oranges, too, since he had racked up several good years before signing, and he signed during his last arb year, not before his second to last one.

Maybe notin can help on this.

These deals all had more arb years left, and I'm not sure how many extra years were added on control, but other than Bello, there was...

$53M/6 Hunter Greene

$75M/6 Spencer Strider

Wander Franco is no shining example of large & long extensions during early arb years, but he got $182M/11.

I get what you’re trying to say, but Crochet has only pitched 219 innings so far in his career, so to me that’s to few innings to say if he’s a good pitcher, or a really good pitcher. Bello got nowhere near the contract being suggested for Crochet. Skubal had a great year, and won the CY Young this past year, but I’d want to see him have another good year this year, before offering him the moon. Supposedly Cro Man’s people gave teams  parameters before any deals for the Cro Man was made , so if that’s the case Brez has an idea what it will take. 

[Randy Red Sox]

11 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

5 years including 2025 and 2026 - $145 million - no opt outs - incentives tossed in.

If anyone complains that $130 is too much for those 3 extra years they're thinking too much like JH! 

this will be his age 26 year.  If Henry doesn't buck up for at least a 5 yr extension on Crochet he NEVER will and we will continue to look at 1 and 2 [max} yr deals on SP.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I ask you the question I did before. What’s the comp out there for someone his age, and lack of much of a resume to get a contract that you, an others are suggesting? I’m not for overpaying someone just because we gave up some high ranked suspects. Only time will tell on what was the right way to do this, and what Brez will end up doing. 

There isn’t a comp because he’s so dang good.

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I get what you’re trying to say, but Crochet has only pitched 219 innings so far in his career, so to me that’s to few innings to say if he’s a good pitcher, or a really good pitcher. Bello got nowhere near the contract being suggested for Crochet. Skubal had a great year, and won the CY Young this past year, but I’d want to see him have another good year this year, before offering him the moon. Supposedly Cro Man’s people gave teams  parameters before any deals for the Cro Man was made , so if that’s the case Brez has an idea what it will take. 

Belllo is a #4. Crochet is a #1. They have nothing to do with each other.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Belllo is a #4. Crochet is a #1. They have nothing to do with each other.

I’m not the one who brought Bello into the conversation.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There isn’t a comp because he’s so dang good.

No doubt he has good stuff, but I need to see more than 32 career starts, and 146 career innings as a starter, before I’d offer him any long term 6 figure contracts, and to dub him dang good.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I get what you’re trying to say, but Crochet has only pitched 219 innings so far in his career, so to me that’s to few innings to say if he’s a good pitcher, or a really good pitcher. Bello got nowhere near the contract being suggested for Crochet. Skubal had a great year, and won the CY Young this past year, but I’d want to see him have another good year this year, before offering him the moon. Supposedly Cro Man’s people gave teams  parameters before any deals for the Cro Man was made , so if that’s the case Brez has an idea what it will take. 

I'm not "sure" he'll be good. I have the same concerns as everyone. When we made the trade I brought up the whole "never pitched over 35 innings in a season, even through college, until 2024." The thing to me is, I'm just as unsure about how well Fried, Burnes and other pitcher choices might have been. In fact, I think I feel a little more sure about expecting them to decline over their 8 year deal than a Crochet 8 year deal (2 arb+ 6 extension.)

It's a huge risk. It very well may be unprecedented.

I'm high on the age thing. I'm high on his skills.

The risk will always be there on any signing, just like the "sure bet" Price 7 year deal... NOT!

I can understand others not wanting to touch this, and maybe we can get him for less than what I suggested, since it might be the first offer, like this in ML history.

[moonslav59]

Crochet seems open to extending with the Sox...

" “There have been conversations with my agent and the front office, just kind of getting a feel for one another,” Crochet said, as relayed by Cotillo. “Staying in Boston long-term is something that has a lot of merit in my mind and something I think would be awesome. In the meantime, I’m just focusing on spring and getting ready for the upcoming season, trying to stay focused one day at a time. When something’s presented, then we’ll attack it.”"

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not "sure" he'll be good. I have the same concerns as everyone. When we made the trade I brought up the whole "never pitched over 35 innings in a season, even through college, until 2024." The thing to me is, I'm just as unsure about how well Fried, Burnes and other pitcher choices might have been. In fact, I think I feel a little more sure about expecting them to decline over their 8 year deal than a Crochet 8 year deal (2 arb+ 6 extension.)

It's a huge risk. It very well may be unprecedented.

I'm high on the age thing. I'm high on his skills.

The risk will always be there on any signing, just like the "sure bet" Price 7 year deal... NOT!

I can understand others not wanting to touch this, and maybe we can get him for less than what I suggested, since it might be the first offer, like this in ML history.

Well it’s all in Brez’s hand now, so we’ll just have to wait, and see what they come up with. It will also be interesting to see what Detroit does with Skubal.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Well it’s all in Brez’s hand now, so we’ll just have to wait, and see what they come up with. It will also be interesting to see what Detroit does with Skubal.

Skubal is almost 2 and half years older and has almost triple the ML innings as Crochet, but it will be interesting. One could argue Skubal is the best pitcher in the AL or even MLB.

1st in AL fWAR from '23-'24.

1st in MLB in ERA- at 62

Blows everyone away in FIP (2.35) and is 2nd in xFIP and xFIP-

[Larry Cook]

On 1/10/2025 at 7:11 AM, Hugh2 said:

If Crochet repeats last year, his price tag doubles. 

 

I'd offer 6/150, not opt outs and see if he bites. 

We cannot be penny wise and pound foolish! Let’s make the kid happy and kick him up for 6 seasons 

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

A no extension makes the trade look like a loss, to me. 

I know it depends on what we get for 2 years of Crochet at a low cost vs how well the prospects do over the next 6-7 years.

What is Crochet worth for 6 years, starting in 2027?

Why is rolling the dice on guessing that worth and riskier than guessing Fried's production value from ages 31 to 38? Sure, he is a much more proven commodity, right now, and Crochet's project value is way more speculative, but how many 31 year old pitchers give 7+ years work out well? Why would Fried have been a better risk?

It might have cost us $220M/8 to get him, but my $160M/6 offer seems too risky for you guys.

Either Crochet is good, or he is not. An injury could hurt is value, but he would not be a 33 or 34 year old pitcher trying to come back from a major injury or surgery. He's by 27 or 28.

I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but I'd roll the dice with a younger pitcher. I'd give him more than $160M/6, if he gave up on any opt outs before age 30. I might even offer close to Fried's deal starting at age 27 (2027), instead of Fried's deal starting at 31. Maybe $200M/8 gets it done, (actually $220M/10 counting buying out the 2 arb years at $20M/2.) That's an AAV of $22M for 10 years with no opt outs.

You would say no?

Sorry moon but when I read your posts on this the numbers seem to be bouncing all over the place.

Why not present us with a single offer that you think would hit the sweet spot for both sides?  No variables, just one offer, including the total cash, years it covers and opt outs.  

[Bellhorn04]

So here's my simple Sweet Spot Proposal:

6 years, 2025-2030

$170 million

21/23/27/30/33/36

Opt out after 2029 only.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So here's my simple Sweet Spot Proposal:

6 years, 2025-2030

$170 million

21/23/27/30/33/36

Opt out after 2029 only.

Seems insane.

Why are people throwing around free agent deals for arb-eligible pitchers?  And why do others prefer to wait?

The whole point for Boston is to get the best deal for themselves.  Right now, with him only having one season as a starter, Thats not much date to know how good he is.  But that also applies to Crochet’s agent.  Wait another year, and if he excels, he gets more expensive and more confident he can reach free agency without getting hurt.  The Sox might be able to sign him for Rick Porcello money right now.  But 12 months from now?  If Crochet is still willing to accept it, the Sox should probably pass.

But going 6 years $170 when this already has potential to go further south than the Sale contract?  Fewer years and maybe half that money at this stage…

[Bellhorn04]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Seems insane.

Why are people throwing around free agent deals for arb-eligible pitchers?  And why do others prefer to wait?

The whole point for Boston is to get the best deal for themselves.

But there's no point offering a deal that's a non-starter for the other side.  The Sox have done a bit too much of that the last few years.

Crochet isn't exactly just another "arb-eligible pitcher".  By some metrics he had the best stuff in the game last year.  He's only 25.  And the Sox gave up a pile of talent to get him.

Yamamoto got 325 million plus posting fee without pitching in an MLB game.

I think a 4 year/85 offer is clearly a non-starter.     

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But there's no point offering a deal that's a non-starter for the other side.  The Sox have done a bit too much of that the last few years.

Crochet isn't exactly just another "arb-eligible pitcher".  By some metrics he had the best stuff in the game last year.  He's only 25.  And the Sox gave up a pile of talent to get him.

Yamamoto got 325 million plus posting fee without pitching in an MLB game.

I think a 4 year/85 offer is clearly a non-starter.     

Yamamoto is a good comp, with same age, Cy hopes, and limited big league experience.

Japanese leagues may be more similar in competition to high minors or D1, but will Yo Yama earn his contract -- even if he exceeds perhaps his best countryman in the majors in Yu Darvish (career 33.1 WAR at age 38)?

Would the Red Sox be happy paying Crochet if he tops out at a similar WAR? After all, Josh Beckett had a career of 35.1 WAR over 14 years, while Derek Lowe was 34.4 WAR in 17 seasons.

Btw: Dice K only earned 9.4 WAR in the bigs... On the other hand, Tanaka in New York was a solid starter for six years in his ages 25-30 seasons -- during which he totaled 16.8 WAR.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It is pretty comparable to a free agency situation, for the team. 

Impending free agency is why lucrative extensions get signed and why players like Mookie Betts and Juan Soto get traded a year or two before free agency.  It's why Crochet got traded to us.  

Anyway, this is a situation where both sides have a lot of motivation to get a deal done and hopefully it happens.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But there's no point offering a deal that's a non-starter for the other side.  The Sox have done a bit too much of that the last few years.

Crochet isn't exactly just another "arb-eligible pitcher".  By some metrics he had the best stuff in the game last year.  He's only 25.  And the Sox gave up a pile of talent to get him.

Yamamoto got 325 million plus posting fee without pitching in an MLB game.

I think a 4 year/85 offer is clearly a non-starter.     

Crochet certainly is unique and gifted, but Yamamoto had 30 teams bidding on him because he was a free agent.  Free agents don’t make good comps for extensions.

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Crochet certainly is unique and gifted, but Yamamoto had 30 teams bidding on him because he was a free agent.  Free agents don’t make good comps for extensions.

I think there can be some correlation, depending on how close to free agency etc.  After all, an extension has to make it worth the player's while to forego free agency.

I brought up Yamamoto because notin was suggesting that the fact Crochet isn't a "known quantity" yet should lower his value. 

And I'm not saying Crochet should be looking for $325 million.  My number is $170 million, and notin thinks that's insane.

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We cannot be penny wise and pound foolish! Let’s make the kid happy and kick him up for 6 seasons 

100%. I'm all in on this kid, and he is still a "kid."

It may backfire, bigtime, but we just moved a big stack of chips to the middle of the table with the players we traded to get him. Now, we were raised and need to decide to push out the rest of the chips, of meekly fold.

I'd rather put my chips in on a bet like Crochet than Bregman.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But there's no point offering a deal that's a non-starter for the other side.  The Sox have done a bit too much of that the last few years.

Crochet isn't exactly just another "arb-eligible pitcher".  By some metrics he had the best stuff in the game last year.  He's only 25.  And the Sox gave up a pile of talent to get him.

Yamamoto got 325 million plus posting fee without pitching in an MLB game.

I think a 4 year/85 offer is clearly a non-starter.     

Best stuff in the game, but only 219 career IP and one TJ surgery in his past.  
 

A contract in the neighborhood of 4 years $80-90 mill is better than extensions given to Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene.  (Is Greene a fair comp for Crochet?  He signed a 6 yr $53mill deal two years ago.)  And any extension Crochet gets will be closer to those pitchers than to what Max Fried got in free agency…

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Crochet certainly is unique and gifted, but Yamamoto had 30 teams bidding on him because he was a free agent.  Free agents don’t make good comps for extensions.

It's not a total apples to apples comp, but there are some strong similarities: both are/were largely unknowns and untested. (Yamo was totally "untested." ) Teams had to project his value, just as the Sox have to try to project Crochet's value- just not starting now, but instead from 2027 to whenever. Much of Yamo's projections had to be made beyond year 1 and two, as well.

Yamo got way more, precisely because 30 teams could have signed him, Only one team can  sign Crochet, right now. If we don't extend him, that changes after 2026.

When using Yamo as a comp, nobody is suggesting we give Crochet "Yamo money." So, we are adjusting for the difference in situations.

It is a huge risk, as notin and others have pointed out, but this is not a risk placed on a 30-31 year old pitcher. notin's Sale comp was apples to oranges, too, as Sale was actively showing health concerns, while Crochet's injuries were in his past. Crochet will be just 27 when the extension kicks in, not 30 like Sale was. Giving him one more year than Sale is risky, but his 6th year will be at age 32, while Sale's last year was age 35. Seriously, which contract is more risky? It's hard for anyone to know, but I'd bet on the younger arm, and it is a "bet." It's a big gamble.

I've been saying for years that we need to identify someone we think is "they guy" and do what it takes to get and keep him. We missed on keeping Betts and chose Sale/Nate/Devers, instead. It looks like we might have chosen Soto, but got passed by Cohen and the Mets (assuming it wasn't all a sham.) We haven't really bet big on anyone, except Price & Devers, I guess Sale and Story come close, but they are not super large and long guys. Counting inflation, the offers we are suggesting for Crochet are pretty close to  Story and Sale money, but Crochet's age tips the balance to me.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think there can be some correlation, depending on how close to free agency etc.  After all, an extension has to make it worth the player's while to forego free agency.

Right, but notin was also suggesting that the fact Crochet isn't a "known quantity" yet should lower his value. 

And I'm not saying Crochet should be looking for $325 million.  My number is $170 million, and notin thinks that's insane.

I assume your offer is with no opt out.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Best stuff in the game, but only 219 career IP and one TJ surgery in his past.  
 

A contract in the neighborhood of 4 years $80-90 mill is better than extensions given to Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene.  (Is Greene a fair comp for Crochet?  He signed a 6 yr $53mill deal two years ago.)  And any extension Crochet gets will be closer to those pitchers than to what Max Fried got in free agency…

How many arb years did Strider and Greene have "bought out?"

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think there can be some correlation, depending on how close to free agency etc.  After all, an extension has to make it worth the player's while to forego free agency.

I brought up Yamamoto because notin was suggesting that the fact Crochet isn't a "known quantity" yet should lower his value. 

And I'm not saying Crochet should be looking for $325 million.  My number is $170 million, and notin thinks that's insane.

It is insane.  
 

You want Crochet to delay his free agency, but that didn’t mean you give a pitcher with 220 IP and one TJ in his history a larger and longer deal than you gave Chris Sale, where the Sox bought out one year of arbitration but he had a much, much bigger and better track record that included more years as a Cy Young runner up than Crochet had as a starting pitcher.

Pitchers like Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene both extended for much, much, much less. Their extensions were less combined than $170mill.  The Sox leverage here - which Crochet is well aware of - is that Garret is one torn ligament away from his career ending prematurely and not making anything.  His AAV isn’t going to be greater than what Max Fried got in free agency with multiple teams bidding for his services.  We know Crochet is aware because he wanted an extension done on any trade made last July.  He’s eager, likely because he knows the risks.

And Crochet has already agreed to $3.8mill.  His 2025 salary is established.  Now the Sox need to buy out that one last year plus the first few in free agency.  I don’t think they need to go to six years here.  And I doubt they do.  A shorter 3-4 year deal (starting after 2025) is more likely and removes some of the risk for both sides…

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

It is insane.  
 

You want Crochet to delay his free agency, but that didn’t mean you give a pitcher with 220 IP and one TJ in his history a larger and longer deal than you gave Chris Sale, where the Sox bought out one year of arbitration but he had a much, much bigger and better track record that included more years as a Cy Young runner up than Crochet had as a starting pitcher.

Pitchers like Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene both extended for much, much, much less. Their extensions were less combined than $170mill.  The Sox leverage here - which Crochet is well aware of - is that Garret is one torn ligament away from his career ending prematurely and not making anything.  His AAV isn’t going to be greater than what Max Fried got in free agency with multiple teams bidding for his services.  We know Crochet is aware because he wanted an extension done on any trade made last July.  He’s eager, likely because he knows the risks.

And Crochet has already agreed to $3.8mill.  His 2025 salary is established.  Now the Sox need to buy out that one last year plus the first few in free agency.  I don’t think they need to go to six years here.  And I doubt they do.  A shorter 3-4 year deal (starting after 2025) is more likely and removes some of the risk for both sides…

If Crochet was a FA, this winter, what do you think he'd get?

$170/6? Less?

Sure, we'll know more in 2 years- for better or worse, but I think $170M/6 is fair for 2027-2032. My guess is Grochet would say no to that, or he'll take it with an opt out after 2029 or 2028.