Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fried has a 6 year track record of being a starting pitcher. Crochet has only started for one year. He hasn't earned a Fried contract and I don't think he'd expect that for an extension if I'm being honest. I'm not saying that I'd walk away, but that I believe he'd sign slightly less than what Fried signed for if you offered it to him today. He's made 7M over his whole career. Offering him 175M guaranteed is very hard to walk away from. 

Okay, we are talking about two different things. I just threw out those numbers to set an example of what could go down.

Can you answer the Q about what you do if he insists on an opt out after 2027? (of course, the money matters, too.) let's say his opt out is after $8M in '25, $18M in '26 and 22M in '27? That's the same as him getting $20M/2 in arbs and $28M in 2027.

You walk away and just take 2 years?

[Old Red]

Kut Man $2.75M today.

[Old Red]

No deal yet for Duran.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

No deal yet for Duran.

The exchanged numbers and might go to the arb. Still time before the hearings begin Jan 27th.

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, we are talking about two different things. I just threw out those numbers to set an example of what could go down.

Can you answer the Q about what you do if he insists on an opt out after 2027? (of course, the money matters, too.) let's say his opt out is after $8M in '25, $18M in '26 and 22M in '27? That's the same as him getting $20M/2 in arbs and $28M in 2027.

You walk away and just take 2 years?

You can't give him a $200 million guarantee with an opt out after 2027.  That's way too much risk for the team and way too little for the player.  There has to be a balance. 

If that's your only choice, yes, you'd be better to let the 2 years play out.

You seem to be overlooking the possibility he might get injured or his performance might not live up to expectations-which could happen in 2025 or 2026, after you've given him the $200 million.  Whereas if it happens with no extension, you've only lost $15-20 million or whatever.  

Your scenario results in talking on mammoth risk for the sake of having 1 additional year of control.

 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can't give him a $200 million guarantee with an opt out after 2027.  That's way too much risk for the team and way too little for the player.  There has to be a balance. 

If that's your only choice, yes, you'd be better to let the 2 years play out.

You seem to be overlooking the possibility he might get injured or his performance might not live up to expectations-which could happen in 2025 or 2026, after you've given him the $200 million.  Whereas if it happens with no extension, you've only lost $15-20 million or whatever.  

Your scenario results in talking on mammoth risk for the sake of having 1 additional year of control.

 

Crochet is far from a proven commodity at this point for anything close to a $200M contract. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Crochet is far from a proven commodity at this point for anything close to a $200M contract. 

OK, make it $150 mill then.  I'm just talking about the 1 year opt out part.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, make it $150 mill then.  I'm just talking about the 1 year opt out part.

I started all this 3 year of control thing, because I just have a hard time believing the Red Sox will make it worth it to Crochet to sign anything long term without a short time opt-out. I hope I’m wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I started all this 3 year of control thing, because I just have a hard time believing the Red Sox will make it worth it to Crochet to sign anything long term without a short time opt-out. I hope I’m wrong.

Crochet is not in a super-strong negotiating position.  If the Sox don't extend him he's looking at 2 arb years and the ever-present risks of injury and underperformance.  

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet is not in a super-strong negotiating position.  If the Sox don't extend him he's looking at 2 arb years and the ever-present risks of injury and underperformance.  

As I’ve said he’s not a proven commodity, but if he has a good year this year that will change to some degree. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. With the Red Sox Anything’s Possible, and usually not on the good side. It’s a risk for both sides at this point.

[Hugh2]

A 5-6 year extension is most likely. 

99% of people here are going to either call it an over pay, or an underpay. 

[Hugh2]

If Crochet repeats last year, his price tag doubles. 

 

I'd offer 6/150, not opt outs and see if he bites. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, we are talking about two different things. I just threw out those numbers to set an example of what could go down.

Can you answer the Q about what you do if he insists on an opt out after 2027? (of course, the money matters, too.) let's say his opt out is after $8M in '25, $18M in '26 and 22M in '27? That's the same as him getting $20M/2 in arbs and $28M in 2027.

You walk away and just take 2 years?

They already agreed to a 25 salary so that number is wrong. I wouldn't sign him for 18M in 26 as he'd get nowhere close to that. Ignoring what JH would allow me to spend, I'd walk away for now and see what he looks like in ST. 28M AAV could be more than what he'd get on the FA market after 26 anyway. If he looks better, increase the offer.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can't give him a $200 million guarantee with an opt out after 2027.  That's way too much risk for the team and way too little for the player.  There has to be a balance. 

If that's your only choice, yes, you'd be better to let the 2 years play out.

You seem to be overlooking the possibility he might get injured or his performance might not live up to expectations-which could happen in 2025 or 2026, after you've given him the $200 million.  Whereas if it happens with no extension, you've only lost $15-20 million or whatever.  

Your scenario results in talking on mammoth risk for the sake of having 1 additional year of control.

 

Yeah, the moon deal isn't realistic. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If Crochet repeats last year, his price tag doubles. 

 

I'd offer 6 150, not opt outs and see if he bites. 

That's less than my offer. Cole got 9/324 AFTER having 31 career fWAR and three seasons above 5 fWAR. It'd be wild for him to walk away from a contract like that. Depending on how he's pitching, I'd be willing to get up there. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet is not in a super-strong negotiating position.  If the Sox don't extend him he's looking at 2 arb years and the ever-present risks of injury and underperformance.  

He's already agreed to the first ARB contract. There's only one more to go.

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

That's less than my offer. Cole got 9/324 AFTER having 31 career fWAR and three seasons above 5 fWAR. It'd be wild for him to walk away from a contract like that. Depending on how he's pitching, I'd be willing to get up there. 

He might take less than that, he might laugh at that offer.  He'd certainly get much more if he has a good 25'.

 

The thing about Crochet, is he's young and you're paying for his 20's.  Sometimes you have to swing, and if the Sox believe in him I say make the investment. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He might take less than that, he might laugh at that offer.  He'd certainly get much more if he has a good 25'.

 

The thing about Crochet, is he's young and you're paying for his 20's.  Sometimes you have to swing, and if the Sox believe in him I say make the investment. 

You think he'd get much more than one of the largest contracts in MLB history? Really? 

[Hugh2]

I love these arguments because the numbers thrown out here are going to vary wildly.  I'll be interested to see how close my 6/150 is. 

I was the only person on earth who predicted Xander Bogaerts would get well over 200 million, then again, I also predicted $75 million for Verdugo (hangs head in shame). 

Remember when Juan Soto turned down a record $440 million and everyone called him crazy? not such a crazy decision now. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You think he'd get much more than one of the largest contracts in MLB history? Really? 

Oh no, I was talking about my offer. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I love these arguments because the numbers thrown out here are going to vary wildly.  I'll be interested to see how close my 6/150 is. 

I was the only person on earth who predicted Xander Bogaerts would get well over 200 million, then again, I also predicted $75 million for Verdugo (hangs head in shame). 

And what was your prediction for Pivetta again?

I'm waiting like a buzzard on a fence to see how that one turns out. 😄  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They already agreed to a 25 salary so that number is wrong. I wouldn't sign him for 18M in 26 as he'd get nowhere close to that. Ignoring what JH would allow me to spend, I'd walk away for now and see what he looks like in ST. 28M AAV could be more than what he'd get on the FA market after 26 anyway. If he looks better, increase the offer.

They agreed to a 2025 number, but an extension can be started in 2025 with a new number.

Forget about the AAV or years, can you guys answer the question?

Do you let him walk after his two arb years, because you refuse to give him an opt out after 2027 or 2028, even if he insists?

Call it $150 or $200. hell, call it $120, do you do it or not?

One of the big plusses we heard about this trade was how young Crochet was, compared to the FA options out there. Of course there is a great risk with signing a guy like Crochet to 6+ years, when he has just one year with a lot of IP, but we all know the great risk signings a 31-32 year old pitcher to 6-8 years. We pretty much know, their last few years will be a drag, or worse.

We obviously rolled the dice on Crochet. We gave up a big chunk of our future hopes to make sure we got him, instead of other teams. Now, we are supposed to be all afraid he might suck as he reaches prime? Well, of course we should be afraid. Even the best pitchers of their time, like Sale and Price can become big letdowns.

Crochet will turn 26 in June of 2026. A 6 year extension controls him from ages 27 to 32. Hisa time ends about a year after the age when Burnes and Fried's deal start in 2025. This is a major reason we chose this route- DON"T MESS IT UP!

I hate the idea of an opt out after 2027 or 2028. It would totally suck, but Crochet has every right to insist on one, unless the annual AAV is greatly increased to compensate for the chance he ends up being great and misses out on a massive payday. Look what Yamo got with no ML experience.

Yes, $150M/6 sounds about right, but he could make $240M/6 at age 26 on the open market, in 2 years.

I seriously doubt he takes $150M/6 with no opt out.

Again, please answer the question: do you let Crochet walk after two years, if he insists on an opt out after 2028? How about after 2027? (Yes, the money amount matter for the rest of the deal, but I'm just asking about the opt out part.) It is very likely he pushes hard for one, and he may insist on it or get $210M+/6 without one (or an opt out after 2029.)

Why not answer? Can you at least explain why you won't answer?

[Bellhorn04]

I already answered, moon.  And mvp already agreed with me.  You missed this somehow.

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The exchanged numbers and might go to the arb. Still time before the hearings begin Jan 27th.

Per MLBTR, Duran asked for $4mill while Boston submitted an offer of $3.5mill.

If you’re only off by $500K for your 8 WAR outfielder, a settlement is very likely…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

If Crochet repeats last year, his price tag doubles. 

 

I'd offer 6/150, not opt outs and see if he bites. 

I seriously doubt he takes that, unless he bets against himself. $25M x 6 for a pitcher who will be will be 26 when he signs a FA contract in 2027.

Of course, there is a question about him being really good or not, but we obviously felt he was to give all we gave to get him. Now, we want to hedge our bets and let him walk after two? (Not saying you do.)

Let's say he says the only way I take $150M/6 is with an opt out after 2027 or 2028. Give me that or $200M/6. Do you say no?

My first question was, do you say no to him insisting on $200M/6 or 7 with an opt out after '27 or '28. I agree that as extreme, but what if that is the reality? Do you let him walk after 2 or give him that deal? I'm a yes, if it's an opt out after 2028 and a close to a yes on 2027.

3 years vs 2 is better, even at near $30M a year. Sure, if he ends up sucking or gets hurt, now we have a Price II situation, but I'll take the risk on a 26 year old over a 31 year old.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Posters on this forum and others were moaning about extending Bello and Rafaela last year because they weren't instant superstars. Some even wanted one or the other demoted for more practice against minor leaguers.

Rebuilding a sports team isn't like rebuilding a house, because the latter already has a foundation.

Stop worrying about retaining that extra year of control. Do you know how many Boston players in 2024 were Red Sox for five full years? One: Raffy Devers.

(Houck and Pivetta joined at the end of 2020, and Dalbec was up and down... can't think of any other).

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I seriously doubt he takes that, unless he bets against himself. $25M x 6 for a pitcher who will be will be 26 when he signs a FA contract in 2027.

Of course, there is a question about him being really good or not, but we obviously felt he was to give all we gave to get him. Now, we want to hedge our bets and let him walk after two? (Not saying you do.)

Let's say he says the only way I take $150M/6 is with an opt out after 2027 or 2028. Give me that or $200M/6. Do you say no?

You negotiate and try to meet about halfway.  Something like $175/6 with an opt out after 3 years.

If he insists on an opt out after 1 year you walk away.

[Hugh2]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And what was your prediction for Pivetta again?

I'm waiting like a buzzard on a fence to see how that one turns out. 😄  

I forget, somewhere around 3/60

[Hugh2]

Nick Pivetta probably ends up in Toronto.  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I hate the idea of an opt out after 2027 or 2028.

Again, please answer the question: do you let Crochet walk after two years, if he insists on an opt out after 2028? How about after 2027? (Yes, the money amount matter for the rest of the deal, but I'm just asking about the opt out part.) It is very likely he pushes hard for one, and he may insist on it or get $210M+/6 without one (or an opt out after 2029.)

Why not answer? Can you at least explain why you won't answer?

I answered. You just don't like my answer.

You hate the idea of an opt out after 2027, but you want everyone to talk about it for some reason.