Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[notin]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd give him that over nothing but 2 arb years and a bolt, yes.

Why?

He either stays healthy and then after year one he then bolts.  (He might bolt even after struggling, depending on a few factors.) Or he gets injured during year one and you have 6 more years of dead money.

 

Best hope is he struggles for year one and doesn’t opt out, and instead turns it around like Beckett did

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd give him that over nothing but 2 arb years and a bolt, yes.

So you might be guaranteeing him an additional $200 million but you're only guaranteed to have him for 1 additional year.

I really don't think any team would do this.

I don't think there have been any 6-7 year deals with opt-outs after 1 year.

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Why?

He either stays healthy and then after year one he then bolts.  (He might bolt even after struggling, depending on a few factors.) Or he gets injured during year one and you have 6 more years of dead money.

 

Best hope is he struggles for year one and doesn’t opt out, and instead turns it around like Beckett did

Yikes, now that's an example of hope not being a strategy.  That's just hoping for the Randomness God to give you a favorable roll of the dice.

[Old Red]

Houck $3.95M

Cro Man $3.8M

Avoiding arbitration.

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Houck $3.95M

Cro Man $3.8M

Avoiding arbitration.

Good news, thanks.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How do you give him an extension where he can bolt after one year that isn't him leaving after 2026?!?!?

Huh? I said, I'd give him an opt out after 2027, rather than no extension, at all.

Of course, I'd rather get him to sign for more guaranteed years, but he may insist on an opt out after '27 or '28. I was very clear about that.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh? I said, I'd give him an opt out after 2027, rather than no extension, at all.

Of course, I'd rather get him to sign for more guaranteed years, but he may insist on an opt out after '27 or '28. I was very clear about that.

They would need to sign him for a X year deal and give him an opt out after 2027 in that case, which is 2 years later, not one as you suggested. I think you just weren't being clear.

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Houck $3.95M

Cro Man $3.8M

Avoiding arbitration.

Skubal signed for 10.15M, if we want to get an idea for what the most Crochett could get going into next season.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They would need to sign him for a X year deal and give him an opt out after 2027 in that case, which is 2 years later, not one as you suggested. I think you just weren't being clear.

I was very clear. He has 2 years of control, now. I said I'd rather give him an opt out after 2027 than see him walk after his year two arb in 2026. Nothing I said even hinted at letting him walk after 2025 or 2026.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So you might be guaranteeing him an additional $200 million but you're only guaranteed to have him for 1 additional year.

I really don't think any team would do this.

I don't think there have been any 6-7 year deals with opt-outs after 1 year.

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

You gotta give him something to make him sign a contract extension, when he is looking at what much older pitchers are getting, now, on 6-8 year deals.

Of course, I want no opt outs. I said that clearly, but if he says no opt-out- no deal, I look for ways to add at least 1-2 more years to our control rather than see him walk after 2026.

Yes, I'd guarantee him $200M, if he does not opt out. I don't give him $200M in the first 3 years. It's not an opt out after 2025, it's an opt out after the one year of added control (after 2027.)

Corrao signed a 6 year deal with an opt-out after 2 years. Crochet's would be after 3 years, if the extension began in 2025. It would be an opt out after 2 years, if the extension began in 2026 or one year if it began in 2027.

Sorry, if I confused you and MVP, but I did say I'd rather get one more year of control than none.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Skubal signed for 10.15M, if we want to get an idea for what the most Crochett could get going into next season.

So Skubal could get $20M+ next offseason, which will be his last arbitration year?

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You gotta give him something to make him sign a contract extension, when he is looking at what much older pitchers are getting, now, on 6-8 year deals.

Of course, I want no opt outs. I said that clearly, but if he says no opt-out- no deal, I look for ways to add at least 1-2 more years to our control rather than see him walk after 2026.

Yes, I'd guarantee him $200M, if he does not opt out. I don't give him $200M in the first 3 years. It's not an opt out after 2025, it's an opt out after the one year of added control (after 2027.)

Corrao signed a 6 year deal with an opt-out after 2 years. Crochet's would be after 3 years, if the extension began in 2025. It would be an opt out after 2 years, if the extension began in 2026 or one year if it began in 2027.

Sorry, if I confused you and MVP, but I did say I'd rather get one more year of control than none.

Amazing, but I understood it fully. That was my contention when I said an opt out after 3 years, which was better than the 2 years it was now.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Amazing, but I understood it fully. That was my contention when I said an opt out after 3 years, which was better than the 2 years it was now.

Of course we want more, but if Crochet says take it or leave it, I try to get at least one more year.

It was like the Bogey deal: we all hated the opt out after 3 years, but it gave us one more year, and we only paid him $20M x 3. It was better than him walking after 2 years.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, Old Red said:

So Skubal could get $20M+ next offseason, which will be his last arbitration year?

Seems on the higher side. Maybe closer to 16M which is where Burnes ended up in his final year. The arb raises kind of escalate at a normal rate rather than jumping crazy year to year, which is why Crochett would only get 10-12 next season even if he won a CY.

[Bellhorn04]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You gotta give him something to make him sign a contract extension, when he is looking at what much older pitchers are getting, now, on 6-8 year deals.

Of course, I want no opt outs. I said that clearly, but if he says no opt-out- no deal, I look for ways to add at least 1-2 more years to our control rather than see him walk after 2026.

Yes, I'd guarantee him $200M, if he does not opt out. I don't give him $200M in the first 3 years. It's not an opt out after 2025, it's an opt out after the one year of added control (after 2027.)

Corrao signed a 6 year deal with an opt-out after 2 years. Crochet's would be after 3 years, if the extension began in 2025. It would be an opt out after 2 years, if the extension began in 2026 or one year if it began in 2027.

Sorry, if I confused you and MVP, but I did say I'd rather get one more year of control than none.

It is very confusing, I must admit.

As of now the Sox have him under control for 2 years.  You're saying you would guarantee him $200 million if he doesn't opt out, but you would give him an opt out after year 3, which is only one additional year for us?

If that's the case, I'm saying I don't think there have been any other extensions like this.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course we want more, but if Crochet says take it or leave it, I try to get at least one more year.

It was like the Bogey deal: we all hated the opt out after 3 years, but it gave us one more year, and we only paid him $20M x 3. It was better than him walking after 2 years.

Exactly, and that’s why I said like the Bogey deal with the opt-out after the third year. When I speculate what I think what the Red Sox will do I tend to go to the low side, which would be 3 years, so anything more than that will be great, and a plus.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course we want more, but if Crochet says take it or leave it, I try to get at least one more year.

It was like the Bogey deal: we all hated the opt out after 3 years, but it gave us one more year, and we only paid him $20M x 3. It was better than him walking after 2 years.

The Bogey extension gave us 3 more years of him, not one more year.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It is very confusing indeed, I must admit.

As of now the Sox have him under control for 2 years.  You're saying you would guarantee him $200 million if he doesn't opt out, but you would give him an opt out after year 3, which is only one additional year for us?

If that's the case, I'm saying I don't think there have been ant other extensions like this.

I think having the back end of the contract be so large would increase the CBT hit to higher than what the Sox would ever pay as he would opt out after year 3. Probably why teams don't do it that way? 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Bogey extension gave us 3 more years of him, not one more year.

Yes, the extension was 2020-22 which were all non-ARB years. His last ARB year was 2019. 

A similar Crochet deal would get him signed through 2029. Control for 5 years? I'm in. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think having the back end of the contract be so large would increase the CBT hit to higher than what the Sox would ever pay as he would opt out after year 3. Probably why teams don't do it that way? 

I think it would be nuts to guarantee a guy $200 million and give him an opt out after 1 year.  

If he gets injured year 1 you're screwed.  If he wins the Cy Young he might want to test the market again.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, the extension was 2020-22 which were all non-ARB years. His last ARB year was 2019. 

A similar Crochet deal would get him signed through 2029. Control for 5 years? I'm in. 

moon is destroying my brain here LOL

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It is very confusing indeed, I must admit.

As of now the Sox have him under control for 2 years.  You're saying you would guarantee him $200 million if he doesn't opt out, but you would give him an opt out after year 3, which is only one additional year for us?

If that's the case, I'm saying I don't think there have been ant other extensions like this.

Like I said Cro Man has the upper hand when it comes to if he wants an opt-out, or not, and when.  The opt-out after 3 years would ONLY be if that’s all he would take. Bogey took a 6/120 with an opt-out after 3. It would be the same scenario if that all they could get in years.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it would be nuts to guarantee a guy $200 million and give him an opt out after 1 year.  

If he gets injured year 1 you're screwed.  If he wins the Cy Young he might want to test the market again.

Only why you do that is if it's an opt out on a cheap contract with an escalator for a club option for a set number of years. 

Crochet opts out of his 17.5M contract, but the Sox choose to pick up his 27.5M contract for set number of years. This would protect them in case of injury.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

moon is destroying my brain here LOL

It's why I was confused as well. I'd rather they just offer him a set contract at a slight discount from the Fried deal.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox should give Crochet a guarantee to pay him $38 million for two years, with an opt out after one year -- which he'll only take if he's good (or even pitching). 

Hey, it worked for Giolito, the last staff ace we got from Chicago. 

Bet you didn't know the Red Sox have a club option to keep Gio for only $14 mil for 2026 if he throws less than 140 innings this season... that should go over well with Lucas if Cora and Bailey conspire to use the 6-man rotation all summer "to protect his arm."

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, the extension was 2020-22 which were all non-ARB years. His last ARB year was 2019. 

A similar Crochet deal would get him signed through 2029. Control for 5 years? I'm in. 

I wasn’t sure where Bogey was on his arb years, but it’s still going to come down to the Red Sox making it worth it to Crochet to go long, and without an opt-out, or how far into his contract. That’s the BIG if, and, and but.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sox should give Crochet a guarantee to pay him $38 million for two years, with an opt out after one year -- which he'll only take if he's good (or even pitching). 

Hey, it worked for Giolito, the last staff ace we got from Chicago. 

Bet you didn't know the Red Sox have a club option to keep Gio for only $14 mil for 2026 if he throws less than 140 innings this season... that should go over well with Lucas if Cora and Bailey conspire to use the 6-man rotation all summer "to protect his arm."

A 6 man rotation would come out to 27 starts for Gio. He'd just have to average 5.18 innings per start. He's exceeded that his entire career except for the 6 starts in CLE. His lowest innings per start was 5.37, which should get him to 145 innings. As long as he doesn't miss any starts, he should be good to reach FA.

Depending on how he pitches, he may not be a 14M AAV going forward so a 14M option could be in his best interest. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It is very confusing, I must admit.

As of now the Sox have him under control for 2 years.  You're saying you would guarantee him $200 million if he doesn't opt out, but you would give him an opt out after year 3, which is only one additional year for us?

If that's the case, I'm saying I don't think there have been any other extensions like this.

I want to extend him for 6-8 years with no opt opts. He will likely want near $30M for the non arb years part of the deal.

If he says no and will not sign any extension without an opt out, why would I say No, just walk after 2. We don't want a third year.

I'm not sure why this is complicated.

He's getting $3.8M this year on the agreement pre-arb and might get $14-20M, next year. Let's say he's make $20M total for 2025-2026, and then gets $30M x 6 for the next years of a deal. $180M/6. If the extension started this year, the toal 8 years would be $200M/8 guaranteed.

If he says no, the only deal I'll take is $4M, $16M and $30M from 2027-2032, but with an opt out after 2027- take it or leave it. I'd take it and get 3 years NOT 2.

You would say no? Bye-bye after 2 years, and get a comp pick, maybe.

One way to try to convince him to take a longer deal or put off the opt out until year 5 or 6, is to front end load it. Give him the cash, now.

$10M 2025

$20M 2026

$25M 2027 ($55M/3 vs $50M/3 on my first offer)

$25M 2028 ($80M/4 vs $80M/4)

$30M 2029, then opt out. Some take this to get paid more, upfront. It's the opposite of deferring money, which devalues a contract. He will likely say no.

So, my question is, you will refuse any opt-out contract after 2027, even if it means no extension will ever be made?

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's why I was confused as well. I'd rather they just offer him a set contract at a slight discount from the Fried deal.

My suggestion is based on him rejecting any contract without an opt out.

Why is that so hard to fathom. He may very well do just that. We could offer him more than Fried, including the arb buy-out years, and he could say no.

If he insists on an early opt-out, you guys just walk away? Geesh, I though Bloom was bad.

[mvp 78]

Fried has a 6 year track record of being a starting pitcher. Crochet has only started for one year. He hasn't earned a Fried contract and I don't think he'd expect that for an extension if I'm being honest. I'm not saying that I'd walk away, but that I believe he'd sign slightly less than what Fried signed for if you offered it to him today. He's made 7M over his whole career. Offering him 175M guaranteed is very hard to walk away from.