Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[notin]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His one injury? 

How many for Yamamoto? 
 

I don’t see Yamamoto as a comparison at all.  Glasnow was 2 years older when he extended, but that was too different.  Crochet will be two years older than Yamamoto but he’s the benchmark?

I think too many are hoping the Sox avoid Lester 2.0 by overbidding massively…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

How many for Yamamoto? 
 

I don’t see Yamamoto as a comparison at all.  Glasnow was 2 years older when he extended, but that was too different.  Crochet will be two years older than Yamamoto but he’s the benchmark?

I think too many are hoping the Sox avoid Lester 2.0 by overbidding massively…

Yamamoto missed 3 months last year with a shoulder injury, Before then? IDK. Maybe this is a recurring issue for him while Crochet stays healthy? Hard to say. 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

How many for Yamamoto? 
 

I don’t see Yamamoto as a comparison at all.  Glasnow was 2 years older when he extended, but that was too different.  Crochet will be two years older than Yamamoto but he’s the benchmark?

I think too many are hoping the Sox avoid Lester 2.0 by overbidding massively…

What would a fair extension offer for Crochet?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My proposal was 4 additional years, so 6 total 2025-2030, with an opt out after 2029.

Since he might get $20M in arbs for 2025+2026, you are really giving him about a $150M/4 extension. That is extremely high. I was thinking $150M/6 starting in 2027, and add the $20M for 2025-2026 arb buy outs, and it would be $170M/8. I'd go up to $180 or maybe even 190M/8 starting in 2025- knowing full well it is a huge risk and unprecedented for anyone close to his current profile. That basically comes to $180M/6 or $25-$28M a year for the after arb years.

I can see how that looks way too high to many of you, and it looks close to full FA value for a proven SP'er, but his contract would end at around age 30-32 and not be starting there.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

How many for Yamamoto? 
 

I don’t see Yamamoto as a comparison at all.  Glasnow was 2 years older when he extended, but that was too different.  Crochet will be two years older than Yamamoto but he’s the benchmark?

I think too many are hoping the Sox avoid Lester 2.0 by overbidding massively…

The lack of MLB experience makes Yamo sort of a comp, but he does have way more IP. The age is closer for Yamo than some others.

Nobody is saying Crochet should get $324M/12, so we realize the comp is not equal, but it can be used as a scale to try and better figure out about how much Crochet should get.

No matter where you look for a comp, some sort of adjustment has to be made, for age, more or less arb years remaining, recent success and IP numbers and more. No match comes close, so maybe trying to use the comp method is not the way to go.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The lack of MLB experience makes Yamo sort of a comp, but he does have way more IP. The age is closer for Yamo than some others.

Nobody is saying Crochet should get $324M/12, so we realize the comp is not equal, but it can be used as a scale to try and better figure out about how much Crochet should get.

No matter where you look for a comp, some sort of adjustment has to be made, for age, more or less arb years remaining, recent success and IP numbers and more. No match comes close, so maybe trying to use the comp method is not the way to go.

I’m sticking with Alcantara as a good comp.  Same age.  Similar careers to date.  Same salary for the age 26 season.  
 

I do think 5 yrs $55mill is light, but it’s probably a closer starting point than many think.  I’m thinking a 4 yr $80 mill extension.  Crochet gets security and had a chance to test free agency before it’s too late…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’m sticking with Alcantara as a good comp.  Same age.  Similar careers to date.  Same salary for the age 26 season.  
 

I do think 5 yrs $55mill is light, but it’s probably a closer starting point than many think.  I’m thinking a 4 yr $80 mill extension.  Crochet gets security and had a chance to test free agency before it’s too late…

Alcantara might be the closest comp. He was 25 when he signed. He had some success and under 500 IP, before signing.

The differences: He was facing the first of 3 arb seasons and added 2 years of control. That's not a big difference, but going for 4 or more years after team control runs out is a pretty big step and should cost much more than the 2 years Alcantara got. The two years were at $17.3M, each. Would it have been a higher AAV had he got 4 years. What would be the "adjustment" for that?

Now, take that adjusted number and index for inflation. Is $20M too low? Is $28M too high? Is about $25M about right? If you multiply Alcantara's $17.3 x 4, it would be about $70M- no adjustments. I'm not thinking $80M/4 is a proper adjusted number.

There is a reason most arb players who extend only add 1-2 years, not 4-6. That is what really makes our suggested offers unique.

[notin]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Alcantara might be the closest comp. He was 25 when he signed. He had some success and under 500 IP, before signing.

The differences: He was facing the first of 3 arb seasons and added 2 years of control. That's not a big difference, but going for 4 or more years after team control runs out is a pretty big step and should cost much more than the 2 years Alcantara got. The two years were at $17.3M, each. Would it have been a higher AAV had he got 4 years. What would be the "adjustment" for that?

Now, take that adjusted number and index for inflation. Is $20M too low? Is $28M too high? Is about $25M about right? If you multiply Alcantara's $17.3 x 4, it would be about $70M- no adjustments. I'm not thinking $80M/4 is a proper adjusted number.

There is a reason most arb players who extend only add 1-2 years, not 4-6. That is what really makes our suggested offers unique.

Many take shorter offers or have opt outs because they do want to try free agency.  That’s why I’m thinking he goes 3-5 years tops.  Hit free agency at 31 and he could still get PAID.  

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Many take shorter offers or have opt outs because they do want to try free agency.  That’s why I’m thinking he goes 3-5 years tops.  Hit free agency at 31 and he could still get PAID.  

But how do you comp a guy who gets just 2 years of "FA market" type money vs one who gets 5?