Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[dgalehouse]

I know Crochet has great metrics , but I think we have become a little desperate for someone to save the day and lead the pitching staff to stardom. We see him as the chosen one.  I don't want to rehash the " wins are the worst thing to go by" debate, but I have to notice that Crochet has a career record of 9-19. Are we willing to go long and large for a guy who has a total of nine wins in MLB? Wouldn't you like to see a little more evidence of his " elite stuff" being translated into winning ballgames before going all in on him? 

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I know Crochet has great metrics , but I think we have become a little desperate for someone to save the day and lead the pitching staff to stardom. We see him as the chosen one.  I don't want to rehash the " wins are the worst thing to go by" debate, but I have to notice that Crochet has a career record of 9-19. Are we willing to go long and large for a guy who has a total of nine wins in MLB? Wouldn't you like to see a little more evidence of his " elite stuff" being translated into winning ballgames before going all in on him? 

It is a big step to take to view him as "the chosen one." So many pitchers in MLB have shown glimpses of "great stuff" or great "metrics," and never amounted to jack.

I fully realize I am taking a big leap of faith, and some of that is based on the fact that I am convinced JH & Co. are not going to outbid anyone for fully established  FA players getting 6+ years and mega bucks. To me, Crochet represents out best hope at striking gold, $170M/6 is about what Story got-adjusted for inflation.

$170M/6 is not Price money. Price was "the chosen one."

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think there can be some correlation, depending on how close to free agency etc.  After all, an extension has to make it worth the player's while to forego free agency.

I brought up Yamamoto because notin was suggesting that the fact Crochet isn't a "known quantity" yet should lower his value. 

And I'm not saying Crochet should be looking for $325 million.  My number is $170 million, and notin thinks that's insane.

I don’t think $170 is insane, depending on the years.  I threw my hat in the ring with $160/6

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, notin said:

It is insane.  
 

You want Crochet to delay his free agency, but that didn’t mean you give a pitcher with 220 IP and one TJ in his history a larger and longer deal than you gave Chris Sale, where the Sox bought out one year of arbitration but he had a much, much bigger and better track record that included more years as a Cy Young runner up than Crochet had as a starting pitcher.

Pitchers like Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene both extended for much, much, much less. Their extensions were less combined than $170mill.  The Sox leverage here - which Crochet is well aware of - is that Garret is one torn ligament away from his career ending prematurely and not making anything.  His AAV isn’t going to be greater than what Max Fried got in free agency with multiple teams bidding for his services.  We know Crochet is aware because he wanted an extension done on any trade made last July.  He’s eager, likely because he knows the risks.

And Crochet has already agreed to $3.8mill.  His 2025 salary is established.  Now the Sox need to buy out that one last year plus the first few in free agency.  I don’t think they need to go to six years here.  And I doubt they do.  A shorter 3-4 year deal (starting after 2025) is more likely and removes some of the risk for both sides…

Spencer Striders extension bought out 5 years of team control vs 2.  That’s a HUGE difference.

also, with baseball inflation around 10% the last several years signing that today would be like getting a $90 million extension.  That buys out 5 years of control.  Sox are only buying out 2 here.  
you don’t want to go big on free agency, that’s a risk you’re unwilling to take, well this is what you do if you actually want elite pitching talent on your team.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think $170 is insane, depending on the years.  I threw my hat in the ring with $160/6

The consensus by a few of us seems to be $170M/6 years. I had mentioned $200M/7.

The opt-out is a big issue, if he insists on one. I'd give $180M/6 or $200M/7 with no opt out at all. I might give $170M/6 with an opt out after 2029 and or 2030, giving us 2 or 3 more years of control, but there is no consensus on this. (I had mentioned after 2028, but that does seem too generous to Crochet.)

If Crochet was a FA, right now, I'd be thrilled, if we signed him to $200M/8, which is essentially $20M/2 for his 2 arb years and $180M/6 for the next 6 yrs. An AAV of $25M is doable for JH & Co, but that assumes it starts in 2025 and buys out his $3.8M 2025 arb year.

Give him some more front end money to make him happier and increase the actual worth of his contract, maybe...

$7M in '25, $18M in '26, $, $25M '27, then $30M x the last 5 years

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Crochet certainly is unique and gifted, but Yamamoto had 30 teams bidding on him because he was a free agent.  Free agents don’t make good comps for extensions.

You are putting an offer out there that’s good enough that you don’t have to negotiate with 29 other teams.

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Best stuff in the game, but only 219 career IP and one TJ surgery in his past.  
 

A contract in the neighborhood of 4 years $80-90 mill is better than extensions given to Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene.  (Is Greene a fair comp for Crochet?  He signed a 6 yr $53mill deal two years ago.)  And any extension Crochet gets will be closer to those pitchers than to what Max Fried got in free agency…

FA contracts have gone way up since then. He’s getting more.

[Hugh2]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You are putting an offer out there that’s good enough that you don’t have to negotiate with 29 other teams.

It only has to be good enough to make him happy enough to get some money today rather than risk all the bad things that can happen in two years.  If the offer isn’t tantalizing enough then he will just wait and have 29 other teams negotiating with him. 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It only has to be good enough to make him happy enough to get some money today rather than risk all the bad things that can happen in two years.  If the offer isn’t tantalizing enough then he will just wait and have 29 other teams negotiating with him. 

That's for sure, but what does he consider fair, is the million dollar question.

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I assume your offer is with no opt out.

6 years, 2025-2030

$170 million

21/23/27/30/33/36

Opt out after 2029 only.

Opportunity to be a free agent at 30.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

6 years, 2025-2030

$170 million

21/23/27/30/33/36

Opt out after 2029 only.

Opportunity to be a free agent at 30.

He'll be 29, after 2029, and will turn 30 that following June.

3 years added is nice, but I'd push really hard for that 4th year that brings him to age 30, even if it means offering more cash or bonuses...

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He'll be 29, after 2029, and will turn 30 that following June.

3 years added is nice, but I'd push really hard for that 4th year that brings him to age 30, even if it means offering more cash or bonuses...

Nope, he'll be 30 after the 2029 season. (DOB June 21/99)

My offer is 4 added years, with an opt out after 3.

[Bellhorn04]

15 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

I know Crochet has great metrics , but I think we have become a little desperate for someone to save the day and lead the pitching staff to stardom. We see him as the chosen one.  I don't want to rehash the " wins are the worst thing to go by" debate, but I have to notice that Crochet has a career record of 9-19. Are we willing to go long and large for a guy who has a total of nine wins in MLB? Wouldn't you like to see a little more evidence of his " elite stuff" being translated into winning ballgames before going all in on him? 

Frankly Den you're in a pretty small minority now that puts that much emphasis on wins.

It sounds like you'd need to see another full season out of him before making an offer.

It's a cat and mouse game, because if Crochet has a big 2025 he might just say no to any  extension offers and "bet on himself", as they say.  In that case the Sox would be in a terrible position all of a sudden.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, he'll be 30 after the 2029 season. (DOB June 21/99)

My offer is 4 added years, with an opt out after 3.

Yes, that's right, he starts '29 at '29, but turns 30.

I'd still push hard for one more year (opt out at age 31.)

[mvp 78]

There's a lot of money coming off the payroll starting in 2026. I don't think any deal affects his pay for 2025. 

[notin]

16 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

I know Crochet has great metrics , but I think we have become a little desperate for someone to save the day and lead the pitching staff to stardom. We see him as the chosen one.  I don't want to rehash the " wins are the worst thing to go by" debate, but I have to notice that Crochet has a career record of 9-19. Are we willing to go long and large for a guy who has a total of nine wins in MLB? Wouldn't you like to see a little more evidence of his " elite stuff" being translated into winning ballgames before going all in on him? 

Despite the bulk of the posts that want Crochet to be among the 20 highest paid players (by AAV) in the game already, “more evidence” translates into more dollars for Crochet, which is the opposite of the Soxgoal here…

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Despite the bulk of the posts that want Crochet to be among the 20 highest paid players (by AAV) in the game already, “more evidence” translates into more dollars for Crochet, which is the opposite of the Soxgoal here…

I don't think people are saying they WANT to pay him that much, just that they'd be willing to go that high. 

[Hugh2]

You know it's funny, I find the statement that there's truth in numbers and crowds are idiots both somehow tend to be true.  

I remember one time reading a book on probability that talked about test in which they took the average of "guess how many pennies are in the penny jar" from schools all across America.  What they found, is by large that the average of everyone's guesses was almost always closer to the exact number than any individual guess. 

I've actually tried this in my mind trying to predict some FA signings in the past and it's bared some fruit. 

Point is.  If that logic were to hold true here, Crochet is probably going to get an extension in years between 5-8 million in the $25-$28 AAV range.  I understand that the aggregate of a dozen or so posters isn't probably anywhere close to an appropriate sample size yet that range still feels right. 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, notin said:

Despite the bulk of the posts that want Crochet to be among the 20 highest paid players (by AAV) in the game already, “more evidence” translates into more dollars for Crochet, which is the opposite of the Soxgoal here…

Actually, $170M/6 is $28.3M or about 33rd highest, but if we link it to buying out his arb years, it would be more like $190M/8 or $23.8M AAV- 80th highest in MLB history.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Actually, $170M/6 is $28.3M or about 33rd highest, but if we link it to buying out his arb years, it would be more like $190M/8 or $23.8M AAV- 80th highest in MLB history.

Sportrac has it as the 17th highest AAV in the game, between Mookie Betts and Tyler Glasnow.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/

 

Glasnow, who received a 4 yr $111 mill extension recently, might be a reasonable comp.  He has a longer performance history, but nothing as good as Crochet’s 2024.  He also carries similar injury history and risks…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Sportrac has it as the 17th highest AAV in the game, between Mookie Betts and Tyler Glasnow.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/

 

Glasnow, who received a 4 yr $111 mill extension recently, might be a reasonable comp.  He has a longer performance history, but nothing as good as Crochet’s 2024.  He also carries similar injury history and risks…

Crochett had one injury. Glasnow has had multiple injuries. Hard to put them in the same category just yet. 

Glasnow's highest IP count was 134. Since he entered the league in 2016, he's only thrown 100+ innings 3 times. 

[Nick]

17 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think $170 is insane, depending on the years.  I threw my hat in the ring with $160/6

How about buying out 2026 with a 4 year deal for $100M with 2 player option years for $70M assuming 150IP in 2029?

2026 $25M

2027 $25M

2028 $25M

2029 $25M

2030 $35M Player option

2031 $35M Player option

 

[Hugh2]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochett had one injury. Glasnow has had multiple injuries. Hard to put them in the same category just yet. 

Glasnow's highest IP count was 134. Since he entered the league in 2016, he's only thrown 100+ innings 3 times. 

Glasnow was also extended at 30 years old with one year of team control left, while Crochet will be extended at 26 years old with 2 years of team control left.  

It's not apples to apples. 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Glasnow was also extended at 30 years old with one year of team control left, while Crochet will be extended at 26 years old with 2 years of team control left.  

It's not apples to apples. 

Could care less about the team control. My post was clearly about comparing their injury histories and notin's statement that they were similar. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Could care less about the team control. My post was clearly about comparing their injury histories and notin's statement that they were similar. 

Fair, I was just saying they both make them incomparable. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Glasnow was also extended at 30 years old with one year of team control left, while Crochet will be extended at 26 years old with 2 years of team control left.  

It's not apples to apples. 

Crochet is 25. If the extension begins in 2025, he'll have 2 arb years built in at ages 26-26 and 26-27, as his BD is in June.

His age makes it so no real comp is out there.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crochet is 25. If the extension begins in 2025, he'll have 2 arb years built in at ages 26-26 and 26-27, as his BD is in June.

His age makes it so no real comp is out there.

Why do we need a direct comp anyway? The market for pitching has gone up and will continue to do so. Any extension will be larger than some posters expect. 

[moonslav59]

Years of team control remaining and age are huge factors in figuring out a player's worth.

Injury history is big, too.

How much success matters most of all.

These are 4 of the major factors, and I'm not sure anyone else matched even 3 of the four, closely with Crochet. This is a unique situation.

We got a very skilled pitcher with a proven, but very short, stint of success, and a history of injury.

The biggest plus about getting him vs 30-31 year old FA is his age. For that, we paid way less money but gave up 3 of our top 8 prospects. We obviously felt like he was good enough to be our #1-2 SP'er.

He becomes a FA at age 26 and turns 27 (June) that first year beyond our control. That is a great age to be entering the free market. Sure, how well he does over the next 2 years could place him in a range of an AAV of $5M to $45M and one year to 8-9 years, maybe even 10 years.

In some ways, it is a big stab in the dark, but I'd rather hitch my wagon to a 26 year old FA to 6 years than a 30-31 year old one to 6-8 years.

I could be terribly wrong, and we bash the trade and extension for years to come, but we got Price wrong, too, and just about nobody could have been viewed as a surer bet than he was, back then.

Roll the dice and get it done, ASAP!

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why do we need a direct comp anyway? The market for pitching has gone up and will continue to do so. Any extension will be larger than some posters expect. 

I can see this point, and I actually think $170M/6 is an underbid. I would not take it, if I was Crochet, unless there was an opt out after the 2027 or 2028 season.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see this point, and I actually think $170M/6 is an underbid. I would not take it, if I was Crochet, unless there was an opt out after the 2027 or 2028 season.

Ohtani deal plus one brisket sandwich from Buc-ee's each year.