Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[Duran Is The Man]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

JH can "afford" to sign the top remaining 5 FAs, but what does that mean when several other owners can, too?

what does it meant to you? to me, it means he's screwing around when he needs to be signing players. we need starting pitching and, to date, not only have we not signed a starter, we're down one with the loss of Nick. the Dodgers signed Snell and will probably sign Sasaki. Henry, as usual, will sign some retread and call it good.

[notin]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

We need a dose of sanity here. I'm all for spending to put together a winning team, but this is getting ridiculous . Crazy money. Soto is getting way too much hype. He is very good, but Mookie is a better all around player. Soto is a good hitter, albeit a career .285 batting average. He walks a lot. Hooray. Let's pay him 3/4 billion bucks because he walks a lot. He has good, but not exceptional power. Never led the league in home runs. He is a mediocre defender. Not a big base stealer. While I would like to see him on the Sox, this hysteria is not warranted. 

Not exceptional power?

The list of players with 200 home runs before their age 26 season:

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Jimmie Fox

3 Eddie Matthew’s

4. Mel Ott

5. Mickey Mantle

6. Frank Robinson

7. Mike Trout

8. Albert Pujols

9.  Juan Soto

Thats it.  In all of MLB history.  Just those 9. 

I’d consider that to be exceptional power…

 

 

[dgalehouse]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Not exceptional power?

The list of players with 200 home runs before their age 26 season:

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Jimmie Fox

3 Eddie Matthew’s

4. Mel Ott

5. Mickey Mantle

6. Frank Robinson

7. Mike Trout

8. Albert Pujols

9.  Juan Soto

Thats it.  In all of MLB history.  Just those 9. 

I’d consider that to be exceptional power…

 

 

Okay. Call it exceptional if you want. His season high was 41 with the Stadium short porch.  He has played seven seasons at age 26. Not too many guys have done that.  But my point remains: People have gone way overboard on him. 

[Duran Is The Man]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

Not exceptional power?

The list of players with 200 home runs before their age 26 season:

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Jimmie Fox

3 Eddie Matthew’s

4. Mel Ott

5. Mickey Mantle

6. Frank Robinson

7. Mike Trout

8. Albert Pujols

9.  Juan Soto

Thats it.  In all of MLB history.  Just those 9. 

I’d consider that to be exceptional power…

 

 

that's some nice company.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what does it meant to you? to me, it means he's screwing around when he needs to be signing players. we need starting pitching and, to date, not only have we not signed a starter, we're down one with the loss of Nick. the Dodgers signed Snell and will probably sign Sasaki. Henry, as usual, will sign some retread and call it good.

It means to me, that no one GM ever gets all the prizes.

That does not excuse us missing out on all of them. 

I've laid down what I think is the minimum we need to do to feel like we can be relevant, again, and hope we can go a step or two above that suggestion. With 5-10 other teams in on the same guys we want, it's not easy.

Why should we think JH can outbid other equally rich owners?

Here is my minimum list:

1 from Fried or Burnes

1 from Bregman, Teoscar, Scott, Flaherty or Eovaldi

Carson Kelly or the like.

One step better: 2 from the second group or 1 plus Hoffman, Estevez, Santander or Walker/Alfonso

or same as minimum, but trade for Crochet, Lopez or someone similar.

Two steps better:  1 from Fried, Burnes and 1 from Bregman & Scott. A trade for someone like Crochet, plus Scott or Hoffman. (This ain't happening.)

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

JH can "afford" to sign the top remaining 5 FAs, but what does that mean when several other owners can, too?

Henry has shown the past several years that he has ZERO interest spending to that level

[Randy Red Sox]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It means to me, that no one GM ever gets all the prizes.

That does not excuse us missing out on all of them. 

I've laid down what I think is the minimum we need to do to feel like we can be relevant, again, and hope we can go a step or two above that suggestion. With 5-10 other teams in on the same guys we want, it's not easy.

Why should we think JH can outbid other equally rich owners?

Here is my minimum list:

1 from Fried or Burnes

1 from Bregman, Teoscar, Scott, Flaherty or Eovaldi

Carson Kelly or the like.

One step better: 2 from the second group or 1 plus Hoffman, Estevez, Santander or Walker/Alfonso

or same as minimum, but trade for Crochet, Lopez or someone similar.

Two steps better:  1 from Fried, Burnes and 1 from Bregman & Scott. A trade for someone like Crochet, plus Scott or Hoffman. (This ain't happening.)

MLBTR  is saying we are not really in on Crochet

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

MLBTR  is saying we are not really in on Crochet

Just this evening...

MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

[Randy Red Sox]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Just this evening...

MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

no way do i include Mayer in that deal

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no way do i include Mayer in that deal

Maybe, if we get an extension as part of the deal. (I can't remember when that last happened.)

I'm kinda losing my love for Mayer, but it does seem like an overpay for 2 years of guy who has very few seasons of showing he can pitch very well over many innings.

I do think keeping Anthony and Campbell are more important, and with Wong looking crappy on D, I think we need to keep Teel.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no way do i include Mayer in that deal

Yeah

Why not just sit tight and sign a retread dumpster denizen or two?

Hate to say it but this franchise is starting to SUCK.

[Hugh2]

Makes you wonder what someone like Mookie would get today if he reached free agency at the age of 26.  Probably over 750 million.  

As disappointed as I am, and I am, it's easy to see that money and say oh well I don't want to pay that.

But that's where the market is going.  Baseball player inflation is high, about 11% the past decade.  That and paying for youth adds a premium as well.  Lets take Mookie as an example. 

1.11^5=1.68 That's the inflation adjustment from 2025 to 2020.  Take Mookies 365*1.68 and you get $613 million dollars.  But that was for 12 not 15 years.  Mookies contract today, adjusting for inflation and years would be $766 million dollars. 

I'm not saying we made the wrong decision not outbidding the Mets, but MY MAIN POINT here is this is where the cost for premium players as gone. I get betting on the wrong guy can burn a hole in your roster, but at some point if you're a billionaire owner you have to place your bets somewhere.  

John Henry is like....playing the table minimum at the high roller table.  

[Hugh2]

I was convinced to want Soto, 6 weeks ago I had sole interest in adding to the pitching staff.  It's an emotional blow to not land Soto, but a perfectly viable offseason is there for the taking. 

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Makes you wonder what someone like Mookie would get today if he reached free agency at the age of 26.  Probably over 750 million.  

As disappointed as I am, and I am, it's easy to see that money and say oh well I don't want to pay that.

But that's where the market is going.  Baseball player inflation is high, about 11% the past decade.  That and paying for youth adds a premium as well.  Lets take Mookie as an example. 

1.11^5=1.68 That's the inflation adjustment from 2025 to 2020.  Take Mookies 365*1.68 and you get $613 million dollars.  But that was for 12 not 15 years.  Mookies contract today, adjusting for inflation and years would be $766 million dollars.

But is that inflation rate across the board for player salaries, or just for the top contracts?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But is that inflation rate across the board for player salaries, or just for the top contracts?

This deal makes the Ohtani deal look much better, and the Betts deal look like the steal of the decade.

I do not see a major increase in secondary contracts, though. Most are coming in slightly higher than MLBTR's projected amounts.

Snell got $30M more than projected, but I count him as a first tier signing. Adames got an extra year, but the money was close. ($182M/7 vs projected $160M/6- more money/less AAV)

The secondary signings, so far: Actual Contract/ MLBTR Estimate

$63M/3--$60M/3 Kikuchi

$67M/3--$51M/3 Severino (significantly more)

$49.5/3--$42M/3 O'Neall

$38M/3--$30M/3 Holmes

$29M/2--$25M/2 Boyd

$34M/3--$22M/2 Montas (significantly more)

$20M/2--$8.5M/1 D Jansen (LESS)

$18M/2--$17M/1 Conforto (significantly more AAV)

$13.5M/2--$15M/2 Higgy

$26M/2--$12M/1 Bieber (significantly more)

Third Tier: (No estimate from MLBTR)

$22M/2 Treinen

$10.75M/1 Chapman

$12M/2 d'Arnaud

$8.5M/1 G Sanchez

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But is that inflation rate across the board for player salaries, or just for the top contracts?

Interesting point, I also wonder how that inflation rate holds going back further?  I'd suspect the rate of inlfation comes down but is still much higher than the national average. 

Shane Victorino would probably get $150 million 5 years in this market.  

Bregman is probably going to get more than that, probably closer to Adames money.  Not comparing any of those players. 

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This deal makes the Ohtani deal look much better, and the Betts deal look like the steal of the decade.

I do not see a major increase in secondary contracts, though. Most are coming in slightly higher than MLBTR's projected amounts.

Snell got $30M more than projected, but I count him as a first tier signing. Adames got an extra year, but the money was close. ($182M/7 vs projected $160M/6- more money/less AAV)

The secondary signings, so far: Actual Contract/ MLBTR Estimate

$63M/3--$60M/3 Kikuchi

$67M/3--$51M/3 Severino (significantly more)

$49.5/3--$42M/3 O'Neall

$38M/3--$30M/3 Holmes

$29M/2--$25M/2 Boyd

$34M/3--$22M/2 Montas (significantly more)

$20M/2--$8.5M/1 D Jansen (LESS)

$18M/2--$17M/1 Conforto (significantly more AAV)

$13.5M/2--$15M/2 Higgy

$26M/2--$12M/1 Bieber (significantly more)

Third Tier: (No estimate from MLBTR)

$22M/2 Treinen

$10.75M/1 Chapman

$12M/2 d'Arnaud

$8.5M/1 G Sanchez

For reasons I've already stated, the Betts deal is in a sense comparable to Sotos deal.  If you pay him for 3 more years accounting for age and add in the inflation rate the past 5 years you get over 700 million. 

Here's the reality.  If Soto is still playing like an MVP 5 years from now no one is going to be calling this a bad contract. 

I suspect in my lifetime I'm going to see all stars regularly being paid $100 million dollars a year. 

[notin]

15 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Okay. Call it exceptional if you want. His season high was 41 with the Stadium short porch.  He has played seven seasons at age 26. Not too many guys have done that.  But my point remains: People have gone way overboard on him. 

It’s gone very overboard.  He will likely make more this year than the Tampa Rays.
 

But Soto is inarguably among the best offensive players in the game today, and got there at a ridiculously young age.  That he played 6 seasons before turning 26 is not a mere write-off as to how he’s already putting up numbers with the games all time greats; it’s a crazy impressive accomplishment to even be in that position.  He’s most definitely on a path to Cooperstown.  
 

I would have loved to get him in Boston, but I do understand not outbidding the Mets here.  Hopefully the Sox retain this newfound commitment to spending with the money no longer earmarked for Soto…

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s gone very overboard.  He will likely make more this year than the Tampa Rays.

Is that on the overall FA market or on the Rays? The first CBT line will be up to about 350M by the time Soto's deal is done. Will the Rays and other small market teams still be under 100M at that point? If so, that's the real embarrassment considering the amount of money the small market teams are handed out from large market teams. 

Will the baseball economy crash at some point, have a slowdown or would we at least see more movement out of underperforming markets?  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s gone very overboard.  He will likely make more this year than the Tampa Rays.
 

But Soto is inarguably among the best offensive players in the game today, and got there at a ridiculously young age.  That he played 6 seasons before turning 26 is not a mere write-off as to how he’s already putting up numbers with the games all time greats; it’s a crazy impressive accomplishment to even be in that position.  He’s most definitely on a path to Cooperstown.  
 

I would have loved to get him in Boston, but I do understand not outbidding the Mets here.  Hopefully the Sox retain this newfound commitment to spending with the money no longer earmarked for Soto…

With the $75M signing bonus counted in, Soto will make more than several teams in 2025.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With the $75M signing bonus counted in, Soto will make more than several teams in 2025.

It's not a Soto problem. It's an ownership problem of small market teams. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not a Soto problem. It's an ownership problem of small market teams. 

The thing is, only one team gets to sign Soto. Even if all owners spent a lot, there would always be have and have nots, and contract prices would go up, even more.

It seems one way to "fix" it is to have a cap and a hard floor: like maybe $160M to $240M, with the floor always being at least 66.6% of the cap. Maybe have situations where going over the cap is allowed, in certain situations.

The penalty system is not working.

[moonslav59]

According to spotrac, half the teams in MLB were under $148M (also under $170M.)

5 teams were between $62M and $99M. Another 5 were between $100M and $119M.

On the top side:

NYY & NYM $308M to $314M (with deferred money keeping LAD lower.)

HOU, PHI, LAD between $240M and $255M

ATL, CHC, TEX & TOR: $218M to $237M

SFG & BOS $188-202M

STL, AZ, LAA & SDP $170M to $175M

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing is, only one team gets to sign Soto. Even if all owners spent a lot, there would always be have and have nots, and contract prices would go up, even more.

It seems one way to "fix" it is to have a cap and a hard floor: like maybe $160M to $240M, with the floor always being at least 66.6% of the cap. Maybe have situations where going over the cap is allowed, in certain situations.

The penalty system is not working.

Right now, they can't even get to 100M for a floor. Setting a floor at 50% of the first CBT seems to make sense, but owners won't go for it unfortunately. Hard to fit in a hard cap as MLBPA doesn't want one. We're cursed to continue on in this doomed world they've created. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Right now, they can't even get to 100M for a floor. Setting a floor at 50% of the first CBT seems to make sense, but owners won't go for it unfortunately. Hard to fit in a hard cap as MLBPA doesn't want one. We're cursed to continue on in this doomed world they've created. 

Yes, 50% is likely impossible to get an agreement on.

Just some sort of cap might be impossible, too.

[drewski6]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Right now, they can't even get to 100M for a floor. Setting a floor at 50% of the first CBT seems to make sense, but owners won't go for it unfortunately. Hard to fit in a hard cap as MLBPA doesn't want one. We're cursed to continue on in this doomed world they've created. 

Because fans dont get a seat at the table for MLBPA negotiations.

If the small market teams are happy to collect a check from the big spenders, and the big spenders are happy to write that check, and the players are happy - then its working for all parties negotiating, even if its frustrating for us.  But thats kind of on our owners

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Because fans dont get a seat at the table for MLBPA negotiations.

If the small market teams are happy to collect a check from the big spenders, and the big spenders are happy to write that check, and the players are happy - then its working for all parties negotiating, even if its frustrating for us.  But thats kind of on our owners

Personally, I don't care what players are being paid. It's very abstract to me. Worrying about it really obscures the frustration with Henry simply not paying the right players since 2018. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Personally, I don't care what players are being paid. It's very abstract to me. Worrying about it really obscures the frustration with Henry simply not paying the right players since 2018. 

Agree. I think our problem has mostly been our decision making vs disadvantages with the financial structure.